Predicting ICU readmission among surgical ICU patients: Development and validation of a clinical nomogram.

BACKGROUND: Unplanned intensive care unit readmission within 72 hours is an established metric of hospital care quality. However, it is unclear what factors commonly increase the risk of intensive care unit readmission in surgical patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate predictors of readmission among a diverse sample of surgical patients and develop an accurate and clinically applicable nomogram for prospective risk prediction. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and physiologic variables collected within 48 hours before discharge from a surgical intensive care unit at an academic center between April 2010 and July 2015. Multivariable regression models were used to assess the association between risk factors and unplanned readmission back to the intensive care unit within 72 hours. Model selection was performed using lasso methods and validated using an independent data set by receiver operating characteristic area under the curve analysis. The derived nomogram was then prospectively assessed between June and August 2017 to evaluate the correlation between perceived and calculated risk for intensive care unit readmission. RESULTS: Among 3,109 patients admitted to the intensive care unit by general surgery (34%), transplant (9%), trauma (43%), and vascular surgery (14%) services, there were 141 (5%) unplanned readmissions within 72 hours. Among 179 candidate predictor variables, a reduced model was derived that included age, blood urea nitrogen, serum chloride, serum glucose, atrial fibrillation, renal insufficiency, and respiratory rate. These variables were used to develop a clinical nomogram, which was validated using 617 independent admissions, and indicated moderate performance (area under the curve: 0.71). When prospectively assessed, intensive care unit providers' perception of respiratory risk was moderately correlated with calculated risk using the nomogram (ρ: 0.44; P < .001), although perception of electrolyte abnormalities, hyperglycemia, renal insufficiency, and risk for arrhythmias were not correlated with measured values. CONCLUSION: Intensive care unit readmission risk for surgical patients can be predicted using a simple clinical nomogram based on 7 common demographic and physiologic variables. These data underscore the potential of risk calculators to combine multiple risk factors and enable a more accurate risk assessment beyond perception alone.

Patient Preparation for Transitions of Surgical Care: Is Failing to Prepare Surgical Patients Preparing Them to Fail?

BACKGROUND: Transitions of care before and after surgery are critical for patient preparation. We sought to determine whether the degree of exposure to health information resources before and after surgery increases preparedness and decreases hospital readmission. METHODS: A national Web-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted of 1917 patients and caregivers who had a recent surgical encounter. Health information resources used before and after surgery were correlated with patient level of preparedness. We also evaluated the association between preparedness and hospital readmission. RESULTS: Compared to unprepared patients, those who felt prepared were most likely to be given multiple health information resources before surgery (92 vs. 77%, p < 0.001) and before leaving the hospital (91 vs. 69%, p = 0.02). Feeling prepared was positively correlated with the number of resources provided to patients by their surgical team and used before surgery and before leaving the hospital (p < 0.05, both). 30-day readmission was significantly lower among patients who felt prepared either before (7% prepared vs. 22% not prepared, p = <0.001) or after surgery (9% prepared vs. 23% not prepared, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with access to more health information resources during transitions before and after surgery feel better prepared and have lower rates of 30-day readmission.

Routine endoscopic surveillance for local recurrence of rectal cancer is futile.

BACKGROUND: National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines for rectal adenocarcinoma regarding routine surveillance with proctoscopy for local recurrence have been evolving. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of rectal surveillance. METHODS: This is a single-center, retrospective review of patients (2004 to 2011) who underwent total mesorectal excision for rectal cancer. The primary end point was cancer recurrence, with detection method(s) noted. The number of surveillance procedures was collected. RESULTS: The study included 112 patients. There were no local recurrences identified by rectal surveillance. There were 1 local recurrence and 17 distant recurrences (16%). The local recurrence was identified by carcinoembryonic antigen and symptoms. There were 20 anoscopies, 44 proctoscopies, and 495 flexible sigmoidoscopies performed, with estimated charges of $266,000. CONCLUSIONS: Rectal surveillance at this center was not beneficial. This study supports the recent (2015) change in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, which no longer recommend routine rectal surveillance and challenge other society guidelines.