Dietary behaviour and physical activity policies in Europe: learnings from the Policy Evaluation Network (PEN).

The European Policy Evaluation Network (PEN), initiated in autumn 2018, aimed at advancing the evidence base for public policies impacting dietary behaviour, physical activity and sedentary behaviours in Europe. This is needed because non-communicable diseases-the leading cause of global mortality-are substantially caused by physical inactivity and unhealthy dietary behaviours, which in turn are driven by upstream factors that have not yet been addressed effectively by prevention approaches. Thus, successful policy interventions are required that target entire populations and tackle the 'causes of the causes'. To advance our knowledge on the effective implementation of policies and their impact in terms of improving health behaviours, PEN focused on five research tasks: (i) Adaptation and implementation of a Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI) and development of a Physical Activity Environment Policy Index (PA-EPI); (ii) Mapping of health-related indicators needed for policy evaluation and facilitating a harmonized pan-European approach for surveillance to assess the impact of policy interventions; (iii) Refining quantitative methods to evaluate the impact of public policies; (iv) Identifying key barriers and facilitators of implementation of policies; and (v) Advance understanding the equity impact of the development, implementation and evaluation of policies aimed at promoting physical activity and a healthy diet. Finally, and in order to provide concrete evidence for policymaking, existing exemplary policies, namely sugar-sweetened beverages taxation, active transport policies and school policies on nutrition and physical activity were assessed in consideration of these five tasks. At the end of the PEN project's formal runtime, considerable advancements have been made. Here, we present an overview of the most important learnings and outputs.

Estimating the impact of nutrition and physical activity policies with quasi-experimental methods and simulation modelling: an integrative review of methods, challenges and synergies.

BACKGROUND: The promotion of healthy lifestyles has high priority on the global public health agenda. Evidence on the real-world (cost-)effectiveness of policies addressing nutrition and physical activity is needed. To estimate short-term policy impacts, quasi-experimental methods using observational data are useful, while simulation models can estimate long-term impacts. We review the methods, challenges and potential synergies of both approaches for the evaluation of nutrition and physical activity policies. METHODS: We performed an integrative review applying purposive literature sampling techniques to synthesize original articles, systematic reviews and lessons learned from public international workshops conducted within the European Union Policy Evaluation Network. RESULTS: We highlight data requirements for policy evaluations, discuss the distinct assumptions of instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and regression discontinuity designs and describe the necessary robustness and falsification analyses to test them. Further, we summarize the specific assumptions of comparative risk assessment and Markov state-transition simulation models, including their extension to microsimulation. We describe the advantages and limitations of these modelling approaches and discuss future directions, such as the adequate consideration of heterogeneous policy responses. Finally, we highlight how quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods can be integrated into an evidence cycle for policy evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Assumptions of quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods in policy evaluations should be credible, rigorously tested and transparently communicated. Both approaches can be applied synergistically within a coherent framework to compare policy implementation scenarios and improve the estimation of nutrition and physical activity policy impacts, including their distribution across population sub-groups.

Journal submissions, review and editorial decision patterns during initial COVID-19 restrictions.

We use the full administrative records from four leading agricultural economics journals to study the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on manuscript submission, editorial desk rejection and reviewer acceptance rates, and time to editorial decision. We also test for gender differences in these impacts. Manuscript submissions increased sharply and equi-proportionately by gender. Desk rejection rates remained stable, leading to increased demand for reviews. Female reviewers became eight percentage points more likely to decline a review invitation during the early stage of the pandemic. First editorial decisions for papers sent out for peer review occurred significantly faster after pandemic lockdowns began. Overall, the initial effects of the pandemic on journal editorial tasks and review patterns appear relatively modest, despite the increased number of submissions handled by editors and reviewers. We find no evidence in agricultural economics of a generalized disruption to near-term, peer-reviewed publication.

Economic evaluation of nutrition interventions: Does one size fit all?

BACKGROUND: Nutrition interventions have specific features that might warrant modifications to the methods used for economic evaluations of healthcare interventions. AIM: The aim of the article is to identify these features and when they challenge the use of cost-utility analysis (CUA). METHODS: A critical review of the literature is conducted and a 2 by 2 classification matrix for nutrition interventions is proposed based on 1) who the main party responsible for the implementation and funding of the intervention is; and 2) who the target recipient of the intervention is. The challenges of conducting economic evaluations for each group of nutrition interventions are then analysed according to four main aspects: attribution of effects, measuring and valuing outcomes, inter-sectorial costs and consequences and equity considerations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: CUA is appropriate for nutrition interventions when they are funded from the healthcare sector, have no (or modest) spill-overs to other sectors of the economy and have only (or mainly) health consequences. For other interventions, typically involving different government agencies, with cost implications for the private sector, with important wellbeing consequences outside health and with heterogeneous welfare effects across socio-economic groups, other economic evaluation methods need to be developed in order to offer valid guidance to policy making. For these interventions, checklists for critical appraisal of economic evaluations may require some substantial changes.

Technical assistance in the field of risk communication.

This report assesses peer-reviewed and grey literature on risk communication concepts and practices, as requested by the European Commission to support the implementation of a 'General Plan for Risk Communication', i.e. an integrated framework for EU food safety risk assessors and risk managers at Union and national level, as required by the revised EU General Food Law Regulation. We conducted a scoping review of social research studies and official reports in relation to risk communication in the following areas: understanding and awareness of risk analysis roles and tasks, reducing misunderstanding of the different meaning of the terms 'hazard' and 'risk', tackling misinformation and disinformation, enhancing confidence in EU food safety, taking account of risk perceptions, key factors in trade-offs about risks, audience segmentation and tools, channels and mechanisms for coordinated risk communications. We structured our findings as follows: i) definitions of key concepts, ii) audience analysis and information requirements, iii) risk profiling, models and mechanisms, iv) contributions to communication strategies. We make several recommendations for consideration by the Commission, both in terms of actions to support the design and implementation of the general plan, and research needs that we consider crucial to further inform appropriate risk communication in the EU. EFSA carried out a targeted consultation of experts and a public consultation open to all interested parties including the general public, in preparing and finalising this report.

The impact of the French soda tax on prices and purchases. An ex post evaluation.

We estimate the price and consumption effects of the 2012 French tax on sweetened non-alcoholic drinks using a difference-in-difference approach. Our identification strategy exploits Italian data as a natural control group. We use French and Italian Consumer Price Indices, purchase prices and quantities from the 2011 and 2012 Kantar and GfK home-scan surveys for two French regions and two neighbouring Italian regions, and expenditure data from the 2011 and 2012 Italian Expenditure Survey. We check for the robustness of our results by applying the difference-in-difference models using only French data and considering water as the benchmark (control) good. We find that the tax is transmitted to the prices of taxed drinks, with full transmission for soft drinks and partial transmission for fruit juices. The evidence on purchase responses is mixed and less robust, indicating at most a very small reduction in soft drink purchases (about half a litre per capita per year), an impact which would be consistent with the low tax rate. We find suggestive evidence of a larger response by the sub-sample of heavy purchasers. Fruit juices and water do not seem to have been affected by the tax.

Dietary Behavior: An Interdisciplinary Conceptual Analysis and Taxonomy.

Background: Dietary behavior encompasses many aspects, terms for which are used inconsistently across different disciplines and research traditions. This hampers communication and comparison across disciplines and impedes the development of a cumulative science. We describe the conceptual analysis of the fuzzy umbrella concept "dietary behavior" and present the development of an interdisciplinary taxonomy of dietary behavior. Methods: A four-phase multi-method approach was employed. Input was provided by 76 scholars involved in an international research project focusing on the determinants of dietary behavior. Input was collected from the scholars via an online mind mapping procedure. After structuring, condensing, and categorizing this input into a compact taxonomy, the result was presented to all scholars, discussed extensively, and adapted. A second revision round was then conducted among a core working group. Results: A total of 145 distinct entries were made in the original mind mapping procedure. The subsequent steps allowed us to reduce and condense the taxonomy into a final product consisting of 34 terms organized into three main categories: Food Choice, Eating Behavior, and Dietary Intake/Nutrition. In a live discussion session attended by 50 of the scholars involved in the development of the taxonomy, it was judged to adequately reflect their input and to be a valid and useful starting point for interdisciplinary understanding and collaboration. Conclusion: The current taxonomy can be used as a tool to facilitate understanding and cooperation between different disciplines investigating dietary behavior, which may contribute to a more successful approach to tackling the complex public health challenges faced by the field. The taxonomy need not be viewed as a final product, but can continue to grow in depth and width as additional experts provide their input.

There is no such thing as a (gluten-)free lunch: Higher food prices and the cost for coeliac consumers.

A lifelong gluten-free diet is the only available treatment for coeliac disease at present. However, the high price of gluten-free substitute foods is likely to generate a welfare loss for consumers who drop gluten from their diet. Using original data on retail prices in four major UK supermarkets and consumption data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey, we simulate the welfare change associated to a switch to the gluten-free diet. Within the "Bread and Cereals" category, retail price data show that the average price of gluten-free products is £1.12/100g relative to £ 0.59/100g of gluten-containing products. Our estimates indicate that on average in the UK coeliac consumers have to pay an extra £ 10 per week to maintain their utility levels prior to the dietary switch. This correspond to 29% of the weekly food budget. Results by income quartile are suggestive of regressive effects and the welfare loss for low-income consumers is estimated at 36% of their food budget compared to 24% of high-income consumers.

Estimation of unobservable selection effects in on-line surveys through propensity score matching: An application to public acceptance of healthy eating policies.

The use of model-based propensity scores as matching tools opens the way to the indirect estimation of mode-related measurement effects and selection effects in web surveys, including a component of selection that cannot be traced back to observable characteristics. By matching and comparing respondents from real independent surveys that use the same questionnaire, but different administration modes, it becomes possible to isolate the selection effect induced by unobservable (or unobserved) respondent characteristics. This study applies a stratification matching algorithm to compare a web survey from a proprietary panel with a computer-assisted telephone survey based on random digit-dialing. The experiment is run in two countries (UK and Italy) to check for consistencies across different cultures and different internet penetration rates. The application to the elicitation of support for healthy eating policies indicates large and significant measurement and selection effects. After controlling for differences in the observed characteristics of respondents and the intensity of internet use, findings suggest that web surveys record lower support and higher neutrality. Similarly, after controlling for administration mode and observed respondent characteristics, internet users are less likely to state support compared to non-users. This suggests that unobserved characteristics play a major role, and post-stratification weighting is not a sufficient countermeasure. As demonstrated by the cross-country comparison, rising internet penetration rates are not a guarantee against this type of error, as disparities in these unobserved characteristics are likely to increase at the same time.

Breaking Habits: The Effect of the French Vending Machine Ban on School Snacking and Sugar Intakes.

This paper estimates the effect of the 2005 vending machine ban in French secondary schools on nutrient intakes and on the frequency of morning snacking at school. Using data before and after the ban, and exploiting the discontinuity associated with the age-dependent exposure to the ban, we specify a difference-in-differences regression discontinuity design. Since the relationship between age-at-interview and school level is not precise, we introduce fuzziness in the model. We find that the ban has generated a 10-gram reduction in sugar intakes from morning snacks at school, and a significant reduction in the frequency of these morning snacks. However, we find no evidence that the intervention affects total daily intakes, and our results are suggestive of compensation effects.

Determinants of diet and physical activity (DEDIPAC): a summary of findings.

The establishment of the Determinants of Diet and Physical Activity (DEDIPAC) Knowledge Hub, 2013-2016, was the first action taken by the 'Healthy Diet for a Healthy Life' European Joint Programming Initiative. DEDIPAC aimed to provide better insight into the determinants of diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviour across the life course, i.e. insight into the causes of the causes of important, non-communicable diseases across Europe and beyond. DEDIPAC was launched in late 2013, and delivered its final report in late 2016. In this paper we give an overview of what was achieved in terms of furthering measurement and monitoring, providing overviews of the state-of-the-art in the field, and building toolboxes for further research and practice. Additionally, we propose some of the next steps that are now required to move forward in this field, arguing in favour of 1) sustaining the Knowledge Hub and developing it into a European virtual research institute and knowledge centre for determinants of behavioural nutrition and physical activity with close links to other parts of the world; 2) establishing a cohort study of families across all regions of Europe focusing specifically on the individual and contextual determinants of major, non-communicable disease; and 3) furthering DEDIPAC's work on nutrition, physical activity, and sedentary behaviour policy evaluation and benchmarking across Europe by aligning with other international initiatives and by supporting harmonisation of pan-European surveillance.

Developing a systems-based framework of the factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority populations living in Europe - a DEDIPAC study.

BACKGROUND: Some ethnic minority populations have a higher risk of non-communicable diseases than the majority European population. Diet and physical activity behaviours contribute to this risk, shaped by a system of inter-related factors. This study mapped a systems-based framework of the factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority populations living in Europe, to inform research prioritisation and intervention development. METHODS: A concept mapping approach guided by systems thinking was used: i. Preparation (protocol and terminology); ii. Generating a list of factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority populations living in Europe from evidence (systematic mapping reviews) and 'eminence' (89 participants from 24 academic disciplines via brainstorming, an international symposium and expert review) and; iii. Seeking consensus on structuring, rating and clustering factors, based on how they relate to each other; and iv. Interpreting/utilising the framework for research and interventions. Similar steps were undertaken for frameworks developed for the majority European population. RESULTS: Seven distinct clusters emerged for dietary behaviour (containing 85 factors) and 8 for physical activity behaviours (containing 183 factors). Four clusters were similar across behaviours: Social and cultural environment; Social and material resources; Psychosocial; and Migration context. Similar clusters of factors emerged in the frameworks for diet and physical activity behaviours of the majority European population, except for 'migration context'. The importance of factors across all clusters was acknowledged, but their relative importance differed for ethnic minority populations compared with the majority population. CONCLUSIONS: This systems-based framework integrates evidence from both expert opinion and published literature, to map the factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority groups. Our findings illustrate that innovative research and complex interventions need to be developed that are sensitive to the needs of ethnic minority populations. A systems approach that encompasses the complexity of the inter-related factors that drive behaviours may inform a more holistic public health paradigm to more effectively reach ethnic minorities living in Europe, as well as the majority host population.

What Happens to Patterns of Food Consumption when Food Prices Change? Evidence from A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Food Price Elasticities Globally.

Recent years have seen considerable interest in examining the impact of food prices on food consumption and subsequent health consequences. Fiscal policies targeting the relative price of unhealthy foods are frequently put forward as ways to address the obesity epidemic. Conversely, various food subsidy interventions are used in attempts to reduce levels of under-nutrition. Information on price elasticities is essential for understanding how such changes in food prices affect food consumption. It is crucial to know not only own-price elasticities but also cross-price elasticities, as food substitution patterns may have significant implications for policy recommendations. While own-price elasticities are common in analyses of the impact of food price changes on health, cross-price effects, even though generally acknowledged, are much less frequently included in analyses, especially in the public health literature. This article systematically reviews the global evidence on cross-price elasticities and provides combined estimates for seven food groups in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries alongside previously estimated own-price elasticities. Changes in food prices had the largest own-price effects in low-income countries. Cross-price effects were more varied and depending on country income level were found to be reinforcing, undermining or alleviating own-price effects.

What is the public appetite for healthy eating policies? Evidence from a cross-European survey.

World Health Organization estimates that obesity accounts for 2-8% of health care costs in different parts of Europe, and highlights a key role for national policymaking in curbing the epidemic. A variety of healthy-eating policy instruments are available, ranging from more paternalistic policies to those less intrusive. Our aim is to measure and explain the level of public support for different types of healthy eating policy in Europe, based on data from a probabilistic sample of 3003 respondents in five European countries. We find that the main drivers of policy support are attitudinal factors, especially attribution of obesity to excessive availability of unhealthy foods, while socio-demographic characteristics and political preferences have little explanatory power. A high level of support for healthy eating policy does not translate into acceptance of higher taxes to fund them, however.

Importance of government policies and other influences in transforming global diets.

The Second International Conference on Nutrition, organized by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Health Organization, will take place in November 2014. In 1992, the First International Conference on Nutrition declared, "Hunger and malnutrition are unacceptable." Twenty-two years later, it is timely to revisit the state of global nutrition and examine the forces that have brought change to diets worldwide. Calorie availability has increased throughout the world, even in the least-developed countries, where per capita availability has grown by 10%. As a consequence, the proportion of undernourished people has fallen, yet obesity has emerged as a major public health concern, primarily in developed countries but also among the growing middle classes in middle- and low-income countries. Globally, the nutrition transition has been affected by increased intakes of livestock products, processed foods, and fast foods. These changes are most readily explained by economic growth, urbanization, and globalization. International trade and liberalization of investment have been the key policy drivers of dietary change.

Sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the EU elderly: a comparative analysis in four countries.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the elderly in four EU countries. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. For each country, a regression was performed of a multidimensional index of dietary quality v. sociodemographic variables. SETTING: In Finland, Finnish Household Budget Survey (1998 and 2006); in Sweden, SNAC-K (2001-2004); in the UK, Expenditure & Food Survey (2006-07); in Italy, Multi-purpose Survey of Daily Life (2009). SUBJECTS: One- and two-person households of over-50s (Finland, n 2994; UK, n 4749); over-50 s living alone or in two-person households (Italy, n 7564); over-60 s (Sweden, n 2023). RESULTS: Diet quality among the EU elderly is both low on average and heterogeneous across individuals. The regression models explained a small but significant part of the observed heterogeneity in diet quality. Resource availability was associated with diet quality either negatively (Finland and UK) or in a non-linear or non-statistically significant manner (Italy and Sweden), as was the preference for food parameter. Education, not living alone and female gender were characteristics positively associated with diet quality with consistency across the four countries, unlike socio-professional status, age and seasonality. Regional differences within countries persisted even after controlling for the other sociodemographic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Poor dietary choices among the EU elderly were not caused by insufficient resources and informational measures could be successful in promoting healthy eating for healthy ageing. On the other hand, food habits appeared largely set in the latter part of life, with age and retirement having little influence on the healthiness of dietary choices.

Towards the integration and development of a cross-European research network and infrastructure: the DEterminants of DIet and Physical ACtivity (DEDIPAC) Knowledge Hub.

To address major societal challenges and enhance cooperation in research across Europe, the European Commission has initiated and facilitated 'joint programming'. Joint programming is a process by which Member States engage in defining, developing and implementing a common strategic research agenda, based on a shared vision of how to address major societal challenges that no Member State is capable of resolving independently. Setting up a Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) should also contribute to avoiding unnecessary overlap and repetition of research, and enable and enhance the development and use of standardised research methods, procedures and data management. The Determinants of Diet and Physical Activity (DEDIPAC) Knowledge Hub (KH) is the first act of the European JPI 'A Healthy Diet for a Healthy Life'. The objective of DEDIPAC is to contribute to improving understanding of the determinants of dietary, physical activity and sedentary behaviours. DEDIPAC KH is a multi-disciplinary consortium of 46 consortia and organisations supported by joint programming grants from 12 countries across Europe. The work is divided into three thematic areas: (I) assessment and harmonisation of methods for future research, surveillance and monitoring, and for evaluation of interventions and policies; (II) determinants of dietary, physical activity and sedentary behaviours across the life course and in vulnerable groups; and (III) evaluation and benchmarking of public health and policy interventions aimed at improving dietary, physical activity and sedentary behaviours. In the first three years, DEDIPAC KH will organise, develop, share and harmonise expertise, methods, measures, data and other infrastructure. This should further European research and improve the broad multi-disciplinary approach needed to study the interactions between multilevel determinants in influencing dietary, physical activity and sedentary behaviours. Insights will be translated into more effective interventions and policies for the promotion of healthier behaviours and more effective monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of such interventions.

European consumers' perceived seriousness of their eating habits relative to other personal health risks.

OBJECTIVE: Poor eating habits are a key priority on the European public health agenda due to their large health and economic implications. Healthy eating interventions may be more effective if consumers perceive their eating habits as a more serious personal health risk. This study investigates European consumers' perceived seriousness of their eating habits, its determinants and relative importance among other potential personal health risks including weight, stress and pollution. METHOD: A quantitative survey was conducted during Spring 2011 among samples representative for age, gender and region in five European countries (n=3003). RESULTS: Participants were neutral towards the seriousness of their eating habits for personal health. Eating habits were ranked third after stress and weight. Gender, age, country, health motive, body mass index, and subjective health status were important determinants of the perceived seriousness of their eating habits, whereas perceived financial condition, smoking and education were insignificant. CONCLUSION: Eating habits were perceived more seriously by women, Italians, obese, and younger individuals with stronger health motives and fair subjective health status. Nevertheless, other health risks were often considered more important than eating habits. More or specific efforts are required to increase Europeans' awareness of the seriousness of their eating habits for personal health.

The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relation between food prices and the demand for food with specific reference to national and household income levels. DESIGN: Systematic review with meta-regression. DATA SOURCES: Online databases of peer reviewed and grey literature (ISI Web of Science, EconLit, PubMed, Medline, AgEcon, Agricola, Google, Google Scholar, IdeasREPEC, Eldis, USAID, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute), hand searched reference lists, and contact with authors. STUDY SELECTION: We included cross sectional, cohort, experimental, and quasi-experimental studies with English abstracts. Eligible studies used nationally representative data from 1990 onwards derived from national aggregate data sources, household surveys, or supermarket and home scanners. DATA ANALYSIS: The primary outcome extracted from relevant papers was the quantification of the demand for foods in response to changes in food price (own price food elasticities). Descriptive and study design variables were extracted for use as covariates in analysis. We conducted meta-regressions to assess the effect of income levels between and within countries on the strength of the relation between food price and demand, and predicted price elasticities adjusted for differences across studies. RESULTS: 136 studies reporting 3495 own price food elasticities from 162 different countries were identified. Our models predict that increases in the price of all foods result in greater reductions in food consumption in poor countries: in low and high income countries, respectively, a 1% increase in the price of cereals results in reductions in consumption of 0.61% (95% confidence interval 0.56% to 0.66%) and 0.43% (0.36% to 0.48%), and a 1% increase in the price of meat results in reductions in consumption of 0.78% (0.73% to 0.83%) and 0.60% (0.54% to 0.66%). Within all countries, our models predict that poorer households will be the most adversely affected by increases in food prices. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in global food prices will have a greater effect on food consumption in lower income countries and in poorer households within countries. This has important implications for national responses to increases in food prices and for the definition of policies designed to reduce the global burden of undernutrition.