Using citizen science data for predicting the timing of ecological phenomena across regions.

The scarcity of long-term observational data has limited the use of statistical or machine-learning techniques for predicting intraannual ecological variation. However, time-stamped citizen-science observation records, supported by media data such as photographs, are increasingly available. In the present article, we present a novel framework based on the concept of relative phenological niche, using machine-learning algorithms to model observation records as a temporal sample of environmental conditions in which the represented ecological phenomenon occurs. Our approach accurately predicts the temporal dynamics of ecological events across large geographical scales and is robust to temporal bias in recording effort. These results highlight the vast potential of citizen-science observation data to predict ecological phenomena across space, including in near real time. The framework is also easily applicable for ecologists and practitioners already using machine-learning and statistics-based predictive approaches.

An update on global mining land use.

The growing demand for minerals has pushed mining activities into new areas increasingly affecting biodiversity-rich natural biomes. Mapping the land use of the global mining sector is, therefore, a prerequisite for quantifying, understanding and mitigating adverse impacts caused by mineral extraction. This paper updates our previous work mapping mining sites worldwide. Using visual interpretation of Sentinel-2 images for 2019, we inspected more than 34,000 mining locations across the globe. The result is a global-scale dataset containing 44,929 polygon features covering 101,583 km2 of large-scale as well as artisanal and small-scale mining. The increase in coverage is substantial compared to the first version of the dataset, which included 21,060 polygons extending over 57,277 km2. The polygons cover open cuts, tailings dams, waste rock dumps, water ponds, processing plants, and other ground features related to the mining activities. The dataset is available for download from https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.942325 and visualisation at www.fineprint.global/viewer .

How many people need to classify the same image? A method for optimizing volunteer contributions in binary geographical classifications.

Involving members of the public in image classification tasks that can be tricky to automate is increasingly recognized as a way to complete large amounts of these tasks and promote citizen involvement in science. While this labor is usually provided for free, it is still limited, making it important for researchers to use volunteer contributions as efficiently as possible. Using volunteer labor efficiently becomes complicated when individual tasks are assigned to multiple volunteers to increase confidence that the correct classification has been reached. In this paper, we develop a system to decide when enough information has been accumulated to confidently declare an image to be classified and remove it from circulation. We use a Bayesian approach to estimate the posterior distribution of the mean rating in a binary image classification task. Tasks are removed from circulation when user-defined certainty thresholds are reached. We demonstrate this process using a set of over 4.5 million unique classifications by 2783 volunteers of over 190,000 images assessed for the presence/absence of cropland. If the system outlined here had been implemented in the original data collection campaign, it would have eliminated the need for 59.4% of volunteer ratings. Had this effort been applied to new tasks, it would have allowed an estimated 2.46 times as many images to have been classified with the same amount of labor, demonstrating the power of this method to make more efficient use of limited volunteer contributions. To simplify implementation of this method by other investigators, we provide cutoff value combinations for one set of confidence levels.

Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements.

It is well established that nighttime radiance, measured from satellites, correlates with economic prosperity across the globe. In developing countries, areas with low levels of detected radiance generally indicate limited development - with unlit areas typically being disregarded. Here we combine satellite nighttime lights and the world settlement footprint for the year 2015 to show that 19% of the total settlement footprint of the planet had no detectable artificial radiance associated with it. The majority of unlit settlement footprints are found in Africa (39%), rising to 65% if we consider only rural settlement areas, along with numerous countries in the Middle East and Asia. Significant areas of unlit settlements are also located in some developed countries. For 49 countries spread across Africa, Asia and the Americas we are able to predict and map the wealth class obtained from ~2,400,000 geo-located households based upon the percent of unlit settlements, with an overall accuracy of 87%.

A map of the extent and year of detection of oil palm plantations in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

In recent decades, global oil palm production has shown an abrupt increase, with almost 90% produced in Southeast Asia alone. To understand trends in oil palm plantation expansion and for landscape-level planning, accurate maps are needed. Although different oil palm maps have been produced using remote sensing in the past, here we use Sentinel 1 imagery to generate an oil palm plantation map for Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand for the year 2017. In addition to location, the age of the oil palm plantation is critical for calculating yields. Here we have used a Landsat time series approach to determine the year in which the oil palm plantations are first detected, at which point they are 2 to 3 years of age. From this, the approximate age of the oil palm plantation in 2017 can be derived.

A global-scale data set of mining areas.

The area used for mineral extraction is a key indicator for understanding and mitigating the environmental impacts caused by the extractive sector. To date, worldwide data products on mineral extraction do not report the area used by mining activities. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap by presenting a new data set of mining extents derived by visual interpretation of satellite images. We delineated mining areas within a 10 km buffer from the approximate geographical coordinates of more than six thousand active mining sites across the globe. The result is a global-scale data set consisting of 21,060 polygons that add up to 57,277 km2. The polygons cover all mining above-ground features that could be identified from the satellite images, including open cuts, tailings dams, waste rock dumps, water ponds, and processing infrastructure. The data set is available for download from https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.910894 and visualization at www.fineprint.global/viewer .

Global mycorrhizal plant distribution linked to terrestrial carbon stocks.

Vegetation impacts on ecosystem functioning are mediated by mycorrhizas, plant-fungal associations formed by most plant species. Ecosystems dominated by distinct mycorrhizal types differ strongly in their biogeochemistry. Quantitative analyses of mycorrhizal impacts on ecosystem functioning are hindered by the scarcity of information on mycorrhizal distributions. Here we present global, high-resolution maps of vegetation biomass distribution by dominant mycorrhizal associations. Arbuscular, ectomycorrhizal, and ericoid mycorrhizal vegetation store, respectively, 241 ± 15, 100 ± 17, and 7 ± 1.8 GT carbon in aboveground biomass, whereas non-mycorrhizal vegetation stores 29 ± 5.5 GT carbon. Soil carbon stocks in both topsoil and subsoil are positively related to the community-level biomass fraction of ectomycorrhizal plants, though the strength of this relationship varies across biomes. We show that human-induced transformations of Earth's ecosystems have reduced ectomycorrhizal vegetation, with potential ramifications to terrestrial carbon stocks. Our work provides a benchmark for spatially explicit and globally quantitative assessments of mycorrhizal impacts on ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling.

Mapping the effects of drought on child stunting.

As climate change continues, it is expected to have increasingly adverse impacts on child nutrition outcomes, and these impacts will be moderated by a variety of governmental, economic, infrastructural, and environmental factors. To date, attempts to map the vulnerability of food systems to climate change and drought have focused on mapping these factors but have not incorporated observations of historic climate shocks and nutrition outcomes. We significantly improve on these approaches by using over 580,000 observations of children from 53 countries to examine how precipitation extremes since 1990 have affected nutrition outcomes. We show that precipitation extremes and drought in particular are associated with worse child nutrition. We further show that the effects of drought on child undernutrition are mitigated or amplified by a variety of factors that affect both the adaptive capacity and sensitivity of local food systems with respect to shocks. Finally, we estimate a model drawing on historical observations of drought, geographic conditions, and nutrition outcomes to make a global map of where child stunting would be expected to increase under drought based on current conditions. As climate change makes drought more commonplace and more severe, these results will aid policymakers by highlighting which areas are most vulnerable as well as which factors contribute the most to creating resilient food systems.

Estimating the global distribution of field size using crowdsourcing.

There is an increasing evidence that smallholder farms contribute substantially to food production globally, yet spatially explicit data on agricultural field sizes are currently lacking. Automated field size delineation using remote sensing or the estimation of average farm size at subnational level using census data are two approaches that have been used. However, both have limitations, for example, automatic field size delineation using remote sensing has not yet been implemented at a global scale while the spatial resolution is very coarse when using census data. This paper demonstrates a unique approach to quantifying and mapping agricultural field size globally using crowdsourcing. A campaign was run in June 2017, where participants were asked to visually interpret very high resolution satellite imagery from Google Maps and Bing using the Geo-Wiki application. During the campaign, participants collected field size data for 130 K unique locations around the globe. Using this sample, we have produced the most accurate global field size map to date and estimated the percentage of different field sizes, ranging from very small to very large, in agricultural areas at global, continental, and national levels. The results show that smallholder farms occupy up to 40% of agricultural areas globally, which means that, potentially, there are many more smallholder farms in comparison with the two different current global estimates of 12% and 24%. The global field size map and the crowdsourced data set are openly available and can be used for integrated assessment modeling, comparative studies of agricultural dynamics across different contexts, for training and validation of remote sensing field size delineation, and potential contributions to the Sustainable Development Goal of Ending hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.

A global reference database of crowdsourced cropland data collected using the Geo-Wiki platform.

A global reference data set on cropland was collected through a crowdsourcing campaign using the Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing tool. The campaign lasted three weeks, with over 80 participants from around the world reviewing almost 36,000 sample units, focussing on cropland identification. For quality assessment purposes, two additional data sets are provided. The first is a control set of 1,793 sample locations validated by students trained in satellite image interpretation. This data set was used to assess the quality of the crowd as the campaign progressed. The second data set contains 60 expert validations for additional evaluation of the quality of the contributions. All data sets are split into two parts: the first part shows all areas classified as cropland and the second part shows cropland average per location and user. After further processing, the data presented here might be suitable to validate and compare medium and high resolution cropland maps generated using remote sensing. These could also be used to train classification algorithms for developing new maps of land cover and cropland extent.

A global dataset of crowdsourced land cover and land use reference data.

Global land cover is an essential climate variable and a key biophysical driver for earth system models. While remote sensing technology, particularly satellites, have played a key role in providing land cover datasets, large discrepancies have been noted among the available products. Global land use is typically more difficult to map and in many cases cannot be remotely sensed. In-situ or ground-based data and high resolution imagery are thus an important requirement for producing accurate land cover and land use datasets and this is precisely what is lacking. Here we describe the global land cover and land use reference data derived from the Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing platform via four campaigns. These global datasets provide information on human impact, land cover disagreement, wilderness and land cover and land use. Hence, they are relevant for the scientific community that requires reference data for global satellite-derived products, as well as those interested in monitoring global terrestrial ecosystems in general.

A dataset of forest biomass structure for Eurasia.

The most comprehensive dataset of in situ destructive sampling measurements of forest biomass in Eurasia have been compiled from a combination of experiments undertaken by the authors and from scientific publications. Biomass is reported as four components: live trees (stem, bark, branches, foliage, roots); understory (above- and below ground); green forest floor (above- and below ground); and coarse woody debris (snags, logs, dead branches of living trees and dead roots), consisting of 10,351 unique records of sample plots and 9,613 sample trees from ca 1,200 experiments for the period 1930-2014 where there is overlap between these two datasets. The dataset also contains other forest stand parameters such as tree species composition, average age, tree height, growing stock volume, etc., when available. Such a dataset can be used for the development of models of biomass structure, biomass extension factors, change detection in biomass structure, investigations into biodiversity and species distribution and the biodiversity-productivity relationship, as well as the assessment of the carbon pool and its dynamics, among many others.

Economic Development and Forest Cover: Evidence from Satellite Data.

Ongoing deforestation is a pressing, global environmental issue with direct impacts on climate change, carbon emissions, and biodiversity. There is an intuitive link between economic development and overexploitation of natural resources including forests, but this relationship has proven difficult to establish empirically due to both inadequate data and convoluting geo-climactic factors. In this analysis, we use satellite data on forest cover along national borders in order to study the determinants of deforestation differences across countries. Controlling for trans-border geo-climactic differences, we find that income per capita is the most robust determinant of differences in cross-border forest cover. We show that the marginal effect of per capita income growth on forest cover is strongest at the earliest stages of economic development, and weakens in more advanced economies, presenting some of the strongest evidence to date for the existence of at least half of an environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation.

Land management: data availability and process understanding for global change studies.

In the light of daunting global sustainability challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss and food security, improving our understanding of the complex dynamics of the Earth system is crucial. However, large knowledge gaps related to the effects of land management persist, in particular those human-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems that do not result in land-cover conversions. Here, we review the current state of knowledge of ten common land management activities for their biogeochemical and biophysical impacts, the level of process understanding and data availability. Our review shows that ca. one-tenth of the ice-free land surface is under intense human management, half under medium and one-fifth under extensive management. Based on our review, we cluster these ten management activities into three groups: (i) management activities for which data sets are available, and for which a good knowledge base exists (cropland harvest and irrigation); (ii) management activities for which sufficient knowledge on biogeochemical and biophysical effects exists but robust global data sets are lacking (forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, N fertilization); and (iii) land management practices with severe data gaps concomitant with an unsatisfactory level of process understanding (crop species selection, artificial wetland drainage, tillage and fire management and crop residue management, an element of crop harvest). Although we identify multiple impediments to progress, we conclude that the current status of process understanding and data availability is sufficient to advance with incorporating management in, for example, Earth system or dynamic vegetation models in order to provide a systematic assessment of their role in the Earth system. This review contributes to a strategic prioritization of research efforts across multiple disciplines, including land system research, ecological research and Earth system modelling.

Mapping global cropland and field size.

A new 1 km global IIASA-IFPRI cropland percentage map for the baseline year 2005 has been developed which integrates a number of individual cropland maps at global to regional to national scales. The individual map products include existing global land cover maps such as GlobCover 2005 and MODIS v.5, regional maps such as AFRICOVER and national maps from mapping agencies and other organizations. The different products are ranked at the national level using crowdsourced data from Geo-Wiki to create a map that reflects the likelihood of cropland. Calibration with national and subnational crop statistics was then undertaken to distribute the cropland within each country and subnational unit. The new IIASA-IFPRI cropland product has been validated using very high-resolution satellite imagery via Geo-Wiki and has an overall accuracy of 82.4%. It has also been compared with the EarthStat cropland product and shows a lower root mean square error on an independent data set collected from Geo-Wiki. The first ever global field size map was produced at the same resolution as the IIASA-IFPRI cropland map based on interpolation of field size data collected via a Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing campaign. A validation exercise of the global field size map revealed satisfactory agreement with control data, particularly given the relatively modest size of the field size data set used to create the map. Both are critical inputs to global agricultural monitoring in the frame of GEOGLAM and will serve the global land modelling and integrated assessment community, in particular for improving land use models that require baseline cropland information. These products are freely available for downloading from the http://cropland.geo-wiki.org website.

Comparing the quality of crowdsourced data contributed by expert and non-experts.

There is currently a lack of in-situ environmental data for the calibration and validation of remotely sensed products and for the development and verification of models. Crowdsourcing is increasingly being seen as one potentially powerful way of increasing the supply of in-situ data but there are a number of concerns over the subsequent use of the data, in particular over data quality. This paper examined crowdsourced data from the Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing tool for land cover validation to determine whether there were significant differences in quality between the answers provided by experts and non-experts in the domain of remote sensing and therefore the extent to which crowdsourced data describing human impact and land cover can be used in further scientific research. The results showed that there was little difference between experts and non-experts in identifying human impact although results varied by land cover while experts were better than non-experts in identifying the land cover type. This suggests the need to create training materials with more examples in those areas where difficulties in identification were encountered, and to offer some method for contributors to reflect on the information they contribute, perhaps by feeding back the evaluations of their contributed data or by making additional training materials available. Accuracies were also found to be higher when the volunteers were more consistent in their responses at a given location and when they indicated higher confidence, which suggests that these additional pieces of information could be used in the development of robust measures of quality in the future.

Downgrading recent estimates of land available for biofuel production.

Recent estimates of additional land available for bioenergy production range from 320 to 1411 million ha. These estimates were generated from four scenarios regarding the types of land suitable for bioenergy production using coarse-resolution inputs of soil productivity, slope, climate, and land cover. In this paper, these maps of land availability were assessed using high-resolution satellite imagery. Samples from these maps were selected and crowdsourcing of Google Earth images was used to determine the type of land cover and the degree of human impact. Based on this sample, a set of rules was formulated to downward adjust the original estimates for each of the four scenarios that were previously used to generate the maps of land availability for bioenergy production. The adjusted land availability estimates range from 56 to 1035 million ha depending upon the scenario and the ruleset used when the sample is corrected for bias. Large forest areas not intended for biofuel production purposes were present in all scenarios. However, these numbers should not be considered as definitive estimates but should be used to highlight the uncertainty in attempting to quantify land availability for biofuel production when using coarse-resolution inputs with implications for further policy development.

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts: a case study in Shanghai.

PURPOSE: The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation. METHOD: We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.