The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia.

Between 2019 and 2020, during the country's hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019-2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019-2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover.

Ecological network assembly: How the regional metaweb influences local food webs.

Local food webs result from a sequence of colonisations and extinctions by species from the regional pool or metaweb, that is, the assembly process. Assembly is theorised to be a selective process: whether or not certain species or network structures can persist is partly determined by local processes including habitat filtering and dynamical constraints. Consequently, local food web structure should reflect these processes. The goal of this study was to test evidence for these selective processes by comparing the structural properties of real food webs to the expected distribution given the metaweb. We were particularly interested in ecological dynamics; if the network properties commonly associated with dynamical stability are indeed the result of stability constraints, then they should deviate from expectation in the direction predicted by theory. To create a null expectation, we used the novel approach of randomly assembling model webs by drawing species and interactions from the empirical metaweb. The assembly model permitted colonisation and extinction, and required a consumer species to have at least one prey, but had no habitat type nor population dynamical constraints. Three datasets were used: (a) the marine Antarctic metaweb, with two local food webs; (b) the 50 lakes of the Adirondacks; and (c) the arthropod community from Florida Keys' classic defaunation experiment. Contrary to our expectations, we found that there were almost no differences between empirical webs and those resulting from the null assembly model. Few empirical food webs showed significant differences with network properties, motif representations and topological roles. Network properties associated with stability did not deviate from expectation in the direction predicted by theory. Our results suggest that-for the commonly used metrics we considered-local food web structure is not strongly influenced by dynamical nor habitat restrictions. Instead, the structure is inherited from the metaweb. This suggests that the network properties typically attributed as causes or consequences of ecological stability are instead a by-product of the assembly process (i.e. spandrels), and may potentially be too coarse to detect the true signal of dynamical constraint.

Las redes tróficas locales son el resultado de una secuencia de eventos de colonización y extinción de especies que provienen del conjunto regional de especies o metaweb, es decir, el proceso de ensamble. Se teoriza que el ensamble es un proceso selectivo: si ciertas especies o estructuras de red pueden persistir o no está determinado en parte por procesos locales, incluido el filtrado del hábitat y las limitaciones dinámicas. En consecuencia, la estructura de la red trófica local debe reflejar estos procesos. El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la evidencia de estos procesos selectivos comparando las propiedades estructurales de redes tróficas empíricas (locales) con la distribución esperada dada la metaweb. Nuestro particular interés fue la dinámica ecológica: si las propiedades de la red comúnmente asociadas con la estabilidad dinámica son el resultado de restricciones de estabilidad, entonces deberían desviarse de las expectativas en la dirección predicha por la teoría. Para crear una expectativa nula utilizamos el enfoque novedoso de ensamblar redes utilizando un modelo estocástico o 'modelo de ensamble nulo' que extrae especies e interacciones de una metaweb empírica. El modelo de ensamble incluye colonización y extinción, y requiere que los consumidores tengan al menos una presa, pero no tiene restricciones acerca del tipo de hábitat ni de dinámica de poblaciones. Se utilizaron tres conjuntos de datos: (a) la metaweb antártica marina, con 2 redes tróficas locales; (b) los 50 lagos de Adirondacks; y (c) la comunidad de artrópodos del experimento clásico de defaunación de los Cayos de la Florida. Contrariamente a lo esperado, encontramos que casi no hubo diferencias entre las redes empíricas (locales) y las resultantes del modelo de ensamble nulo. Pocas redes tróficas empíricas mostraron diferencias significativas con las propiedades de la red, los motivos y los roles topológicos. Las propiedades de la red asociadas con la estabilidad no se desviaron de las expectativas en la dirección predicha por la teoría. Nuestros resultados sugieren que-para las métricas de uso común que consideramos-la estructura de la red trófica local no está fuertemente influenciada por restricciones dinámicas o de hábitat. En cambio, la estructura se hereda de la metaweb. Esto sugiere que las propiedades de la red típicamente atribuidas como causas o consecuencias de la estabilidad ecológica son, en cambio, un subproducto del proceso de ensamble y podrían no tener la suficiente potencia para detectar la verdadera señal de restricción dinámica.

Macro and mesofauna soil food webs in two temperate grasslands: responses to forestation with Eucalyptus.

We studied the effects of land use change from grassland to Eucalyptus spp. plantation on macro and mesofauna soil food webs in two sites in the Rolling Pampas. We expected to find differences in the parameters that characterize the structure of soil food webs, as the implantation of Eucalyptus implies changes in the characteristics of the resources and the microhabitat conditions. We also expected to find differences in the communities in terms of diversity, abundance, and species present. The treatments were: grasslands; 10-year-old Eucalyptus plantations and 20-year-old Eucalyptus plantations. Seasonal samplings were performed for the extraction of soil fauna in winter, spring, summer and autumn. For the analysis of food webs, we worked with "trophic species'': groups of organisms that have the same prey and the same predators. A total of 25 food webs were laid out using bibliographical information of feeding habits from the identified taxa. From each food web, we obtained a predator overlap graph, in which the consumers that share the same source or prey are linked by an arrow. In addition, the Shannon-Wiener index was calculated. We found that trophic species densities were different among the treatments: communities from grassland and the younger plantations were dominated by earthworms and other secondary decomposers, while the community in the older plantation showed a greater contribution of primary decomposers (Shymphyla, Isopoda and Diplopoda). No significant differences between treatments were found in the parameters that characterize the structure of soil food webs, i.e. connections number, number of trophic species nor connectivity. However, the diversity of the community was lower in the youngest plantations than in the other treatments, and it shows evidence of compartmentalization in the predator overlap graphs. Our findings suggest that the meso and macrofauna communities in the 10-years-old plantations represent a transition between the communities from grasslands and the oldest plantations. We conclude that the effects of forestation with Eucalyptus on soil fauna communities are evident through changes in functional groups rather than changes in the parameters that characterize the structure of soil food webs.

Effects of macroalgae loss in an Antarctic marine food web: applying extinction thresholds to food web studies.

Antarctica is seriously affected by climate change, particularly at the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) where a rapid regional warming is observed. Potter Cove is a WAP fjord at Shetland Islands that constitutes a biodiversity hotspot where over the last years, Potter Cove annual air temperatures averages increased by 0.66 °C, coastal glaciers declined, and suspended particulate matter increased due to ice melting. Macroalgae are the main energy source for all consumers and detritivores of Potter Cove. Some effects of climate change favor pioneer macroalgae species that exploit new ice-free areas and can also decline rates of photosynthesis and intensify competition between species due to the increase of suspended particulate matter. In this study, we evaluated possible consequences of climate change at Potter Cove food web by simulating the extinction of macroalgae and detritus using a topological approach with thresholds of extinction. Thresholds represent the minimum number of incoming links necessary for species' survival. When we simulated the extinctions of macroalgae species at random, a threshold of extinction beyond 50% was necessary to obtain a significant number of secondary extinctions, while with a 75% threshold a real collapse of the food web occurred. Our results indicate that Potter Cove food web is relative robust to macroalgae extinction. This is dramatically different from what has been found in other food webs, where the reduction of 10% in prey intake caused a disproportionate increase of secondary extinctions. Robustness of the Potter Cove food web was mediated by omnivory and redundancy, which had an important relevance in this food web. When we eliminated larger-biomass species more secondary extinctions occurred, a similar response was observed when more connected species were deleted, yet there was no correlation between species of larger-biomass and high-degree. This similarity could be explained because both criteria involved key species that produced an emerging effect on the food web. In this way, large-biomass and high-degree species could be acting as source for species with few trophic interactions or low redundancy. Based on this work, we expect the Potter Cove food web to be robust to changes in macroalgae species caused by climate change until a high threshold of stress is reached, and then negative effects are expected to spread through the entire food web leading to its collapse.

Current knowledge of earthworm richness and distribution in Santa Fe province, Argentina / Conocimiento actual sobre riqueza y distribución de lombrices de tierra en la provincia de Santa Fe, Argentina

Abstract Updated list of earthworms (Oligochaeta: Lumbricina) from Santa Fe (Argentina) is presented in this work, including current data of species richness and territorial distribution status and information collected by Ljungström and collaborators 40 years ago. Field samplings were conducted between 2012 and 2015 at 23 sites, located in 11 of the 19 districts of the province. Earthworms were collected following a standard methodology. The conservation of specimens was done with 4 % formalin solution and their identification was performed according to taxonomy keys. Richness, similarity and complementarity of species between the phytogeographic provinces were analyzed. A total of 15 earthworm species were identified and grouped into ten genera and five families: Acanthodrilidae (Dichogaster bolaui, Microscolex dubius), Glossoscolecidae (Glossodrilus parecis), Lumbricidae (Aporrectodea caliginosa, Aporrectodea rosea, Aporrectodea trapezoides, Bimastos parvus, Eisenia fetida, Octolasion tyrtaeum), Megascolecidae (Amynthas gracilis, Amynthas morrisi, Metaphire californica), Ocnerodrilidae (Eukerria saltensis, Eukerria rosae, Eukerria stagnalis). From all the species found five, G. parecis, E. saltensis, E. rosea, E. stagnalis and M. dubius, are native to South America, and the rest were introduced from Asia and Europe. The Espinal presented the greatest richness of earthworms (12), while the Pampeana showed high values of complementarity (greater than 70 %) with the Chaco Húmedo and Valle de Inundación del Río Paraná. Endogeic species were present in all environments surveyed. In particular, the exotic species A. trapezoides and A. morrisi showed a wide geographical distribution, having been found at 70 and 50 %, respectively, of the total number of the studied sites. One species, E. rosea, which is in the list, was not recorded in the sampling of 40 years ago. The results of current survey show that the number of species was lower compared to study by Ljungström and collaborators (60 % of the 23 species registered). Possibly the remarkable change in the richness and distribution of earthworms could be a process associated with changes in soil use and land management developed over 40 years. Rev. Biol. Trop. 66(3): 1171-1181. Epub 2018 September 01.

Resumen En este trabajo se presenta una lista actualizada de lombrices de tierra (Oligochaeta: Lumbricina) de Santa Fe (Argentina), incluyendo datos actuales de riqueza de especies y estado de distribución territorial e información recolectada por Ljungström y colaboradores hace 40 años. Los muestreos de campo se realizaron entre 2012 y 2015 en 23 sitios, ubicados en 11 de los 19 departamentos de la provincia. Las lombrices fueron recolectadas siguiendo métodos estándar. La conservación de los especímenes se realizó con solución de formalina al 4 % y la identificación mediante claves taxonómicas. La riqueza, similitud y complementariedad de especies, se analizó entre las provincias fitogeográficas y se identificaron un total de 15 especies de lombrices en diez géneros y cinco familias: Acanthodrilidae (Dichogaster bolaui, Microscolex dubius), Glossoscolecidae (Glossodrilus parecis), Lumbricidae (Aporrectodea caliginosa, Aporrectodea rosea, Aporrectodea trapezoides, Bimastos parvus, Eisenia fetida, Octolasion tyrtaeum), Megascolecidae (Amynthas gracilis, Amynthas morrisi, Metaphire californica), Ocnerodrilidae (Eukerria saltensis, Eukerria rosae, Eukerria stagnalis). De todas las especies encontradas, cinco: G. parecis, E. saltensis, E. rosea, E. stagnalis y M. dubius, son nativas de América del Sur, y el resto introducidas desde Asia y Europa. Las especies endógeas estuvieron presentes en todos los ambientes estudiados. En particular, las especies exóticas: A. trapezoides y A. morrisi, mostraron amplia distribución geográfica, se encuentran en el 70 y 50 %, respectivamente, de los sitios estudiados. Una especie, E. rosea, que está en la lista, no fue registrada en el muestreo de hace 40 años. La zona del Espinal presentó la mayor riqueza de lombrices (12), en tanto que la Pampeana mostró valores altos de complementariedad (mayores al 70 %) con el Chaco Húmedo y el Valle de Inundación del Río Paraná. Los resultados del relevamiento actual muestran que el número de especies fue menor en comparación con el estudio de Ljungström y colaboradores (60 % de las 23 especies registradas). Posiblemente el notable cambio en la biodiversidad del paisaje de la provincia, asociado al uso de la tierra y a la gestión de los sistemas de producción desarrollados a lo largo de 40 años, podría haber influido en la distribución y riqueza de especies de lombrices.

Architecture of marine food webs: To be or not be a 'small-world'.

The search for general properties in network structure has been a central issue for food web studies in recent years. One such property is the small-world topology that combines a high clustering and a small distance between nodes of the network. This property may increase food web resilience but make them more sensitive to the extinction of connected species. Food web theory has been developed principally from freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems, largely omitting marine habitats. If theory needs to be modified to accommodate observations from marine ecosystems, based on major differences in several topological characteristics is still on debate. Here we investigated if the small-world topology is a common structural pattern in marine food webs. We developed a novel, simple and statistically rigorous method to examine the largest set of complex marine food webs to date. More than half of the analyzed marine networks exhibited a similar or lower characteristic path length than the random expectation, whereas 39% of the webs presented a significantly higher clustering than its random counterpart. Our method proved that 5 out of 28 networks fulfilled both features of the small-world topology: short path length and high clustering. This work represents the first rigorous analysis of the small-world topology and its associated features in high-quality marine networks. We conclude that such topology is a structural pattern that is not maximized in marine food webs; thus it is probably not an effective model to study robustness, stability and feasibility of marine ecosystems.

Climate change and glacier retreat drive shifts in an Antarctic benthic ecosystem.

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is one of the three places on Earth that registered the most intense warming in the last 50 years, almost five times the global mean. This warming has strongly affected the cryosphere, causing the largest ice-shelf collapses ever observed and the retreat of 87% of glaciers. Ecosystem responses, although increasingly predicted, have been mainly reported for pelagic systems. However, and despite most Antarctic species being benthic, responses in the Antarctic benthos have been detected in only a few species, and major effects at assemblage level are unknown. This is probably due to the scarcity of baselines against which to assess change. We performed repeat surveys of coastal benthos in 1994, 1998, and 2010, analyzing community structure and environmental variables at King George Island, Antarctica. We report a marked shift in an Antarctic benthic community that can be linked to ongoing climate change. However, rather than temperature as the primary factor, we highlight the resulting increased sediment runoff, triggered by glacier retreat, as the potential causal factor. The sudden shift from a "filter feeders-ascidian domination" to a "mixed assemblage" suggests that thresholds (for example, of tolerable sedimentation) and alternative equilibrium states, depending on the reversibility of the changes, could be possible traits of this ecosystem. Sedimentation processes will be increasing under the current scenario of glacier retreat, and attention needs to be paid to its effects along the AP.

When shape matters: strategies of different Antarctic ascidians morphotypes to deal with sedimentation.

Climate change leads to increased melting of tidewater glaciers in the Western Antarctic Peninsula region and sediment bearing glacial melt waters negatively affects filter feeding species as solitary ascidians. In previous work the erect-forms Molgula pedunculata and Cnemidocarpa verrucosa (Order Stolidobranchiata) appeared more sensitive than the flat form Ascidia challengeri (Order Phlebobranchiata). Sedimentation exposure is expected to induce up-regulation of anaerobic metabolism by obstructing the organs of gas exchange (environmental hypoxia) or causes enhanced squirting activity (functional hypoxia). In this study we evaluated the possible relationship between ascidian morphotype and their physiological response to sedimentation. Together with some behavioural observations, we analysed the response of anaerobic metabolic parameters (lactate formation and glycogen consumption) in different tissues of three Antarctic ascidians, exposed to high sediment concentrations (200 mgL(-1)). The results were compared to experimental hypoxia (10% pO2) and exercise (induced muscular contraction) effects, in order to discriminate the effect of sediment on each species and morpho-type (erect vs. flat forms). Our results suggest that the styled (erect) C. verrucosa increases muscular squirting activity in order to expulse excessive material, while the flat-form A. challengeri reacts more passively by down-regulating its aerobic metabolism under sediment exposure. Contrary, the erect ascidian M. pedunculata did not show any measurable response to the treatments, indicating that filtration and ingestion activities were not reduced or altered even under high sedimentation (low energetic material) which could be disadvantageous on the long-term and could explain why M. pedunculata densities decline in the study area.

Evidence of macroalgal colonization on newly ice-free areas following glacial retreat in Potter Cove (South Shetland Islands), Antarctica.

Climate warming has been related to glacial retreat along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Over the last years, a visible melting of Fourcade Glacier (Potter Cove, South Shetland Islands) has exposed newly ice-free hard bottom areas available for benthic colonization. However, ice melting produces a reduction of light penetration due to an increase of sediment input and higher ice impact. Seventeen years ago, the coastal sites close to the glacier cliffs were devoid of macroalgae. Are the newly ice-free areas suitable for macroalgal colonization? To tackle this question, underwater video transects were performed at six newly ice-free areas with different degree of glacial influence. Macroalgae were found in all sites, even in close proximity to the retreating glacier. We can show that: 1. The complexity of the macroalgal community is positively correlated to the elapsed time from the ice retreat, 2. Algae development depends on the optical conditions and the sediment input in the water column; some species are limited by light availability, 3. Macroalgal colonization is negatively affected by the ice disturbance, 4. The colonization is determined by the size and type of substrate and by the slope of the bottom. As macroalgae are probably one of the main energy sources for the benthos, an expansion of the macroalgal distribution can be expected to affect the matter and energy fluxes in Potter Cove ecosystem.

Multifractal spatial patterns and diversity in an ecological succession.

We analyzed the relationship between biodiversity and spatial biomass heterogeneity along an ecological succession developed in the laboratory. Periphyton (attached microalgae) biomass spatial patterns at several successional stages were obtained using digital image analysis and at the same time we estimated the species composition and abundance. We show that the spatial pattern was self-similar and as the community developed in an homogeneous environment the pattern is self-organized. To characterize it we estimated the multifractal spectrum of generalized dimensions D(q). Using D(q) we analyze the existence of cycles of heterogeneity during succession and the use of the information dimension D(1) as an index of successional stage. We did not find cycles but the values of D(1) showed an increasing trend as the succession developed and the biomass was higher. D(1) was also negatively correlated with Shannon's diversity. Several studies have found this relationship in different ecosystems but here we prove that the community self-organizes and generates its own spatial heterogeneity influencing diversity. If this is confirmed with more experimental and theoretical evidence D(1) could be used as an index, easily calculated from remote sensing data, to detect high or low diversity areas.

Mediated modeling of the impacts of enhanced UV-B radiation on ecosystem services.

This article describes the use of group model building to facilitate interaction with stakeholders, synthesize research results and assist in the development of hypotheses about climate change at the global level in relation to UV-B radiation and ecosystem service valuation. The objective was to provide a platform for integration of the various research components within a multidisciplinary research project as a basis for interaction with stakeholders with backgrounds in areas other than science. An integrated summary of the scientific findings, along with stakeholder input, was intended to produce a bridge between science and policymaking. We used a mediated modeling approach that was implemented as a pilot project in Ushuaia, Argentina. The investigation was divided into two participatory workshops: data gathering and model evaluation. Scientists and the local stakeholders supported the valuation of ecosystem services as a useful common denominator for integrating the various scientific results. The concept of economic impacts in aquatic and marsh systems was represented by values for ecosystem services altered by UV-B radiation. In addition, direct local socioeconomic impacts of enhanced UV-B radiation were modeled, using data from Ushuaia. We worked with 5 global latitudinal regions, focusing on net primary production and biomass for the marine system and on 3 plant species for the marsh system. Ecosystem service values were calculated for both sectors. The synthesis model reflects the conclusions from the literature and from experimental research at the global level. UV-B is not a significant stress for the marshes, relative to the potential impact of increases in the sea level. Enhanced UV-B favors microbial dynamics in marine systems that could cause a significant shift from primary producers to bacteria at the community level. In addition, synergetic effects of UV-B and certain pollutants potentiate the shift to heterotrophs. This may impact the oceanic carbon cycle by increasing the ratio of respiratory to photosynthetic organisms in surface waters and, thus, the role of the ocean as a carbon sink for atmospheric CO2. In summary, although changes in the marine sector due to anthropogenic influences may affect global climate change, marshes are expected to primarily be affected by climate change.

Vertical mixing and ecological effects of ultraviolet radiation in planktonic communities.

We present a mathematical model for a phytoplankton-zooplankton system, based on a predator-prey scheme. The model considers the effects of sinking in the phytoplankton, vertical mixing and attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in the water column. In a first approach, the model was studied under conditions of average PAR irradiance and shows fluctuations and stable equilibrium points. Secondly, we introduced the effects of photoperiod and photoinhibition by UVR and vertical mixing. Under these conditions, the phytoplankton biomass oscillates depending on the combined effects of UVR and mixing. Higher inhibition by UVR and longer mixing periods can induce strong fluctuations in the system but can also produce higher plankton peaks.

The whole is more than the sum of its parts: Modeling community-level effects of UVR in marine ecosystems.

The effect of UVB radiation (UVBR, 290-320 nm) on the dynamics of the lower levels of the marine plankton community was modeled. The model was built using differential equations and shows a good fit to experimental data collected in mesocosms (defined as large enclosures of 1500 L filled with natural marine waters). Some unexpected results appear to be possible by indirect effects in prey (bacteria, phytoplankton and heterotrophic flagellates). In particular, apparent competition appears between small phytoplankton and bacteria. This effect is caused by a shared predator (ciliates). Another remarkable effect is an increase in bacteria and flagellates populations due to enhanced UVBR. This effect is similar to that observed under mesocosm experimental conditions and is related to the decrease of predation due to the direct damage to predators (ciliates) by UVBR. The effect of UVBR changing interaction coefficients may be dramatic on the community structure, producing big changes in equilibrium populations, as demonstrated by sensitivity analysis of the model. In order to generalize these results to field conditions it will be necessary to increase model complexity and include extra organic mater sources, mixing and sinking effects and predation by large zooplankton. This work shows that UVBR may produce community global responses that are consequence of both direct and indirect effects among populations.

Un método numérico para evaluar la eficiencia de la internación en casos de diarrea infantil aguda acompañada de malnutrición / A numerical method for evaluating hospitalization effficiency in acute infantile diarrheal cases with malnutrition

Se explica un método numérico, ideado por los autores, para estimar la recuperación de niños malnutridos afectados de diarrea aguda. El método se aplica para el estudio de 87 casos y se encuentra que permite medir la eficiencia de la internación de un modo objetivo y, eventualmente, optimizar los tiempos de hospitalización para estos cuadros