Shifting from traditional landslide occurrence modeling to scenario estimation with a "glass-box" machine learning.

Extreme rainfall events represent one of the main triggers of landslides. As climate change continues to reshape global weather patterns, the frequency and intensity of such events are increasing, amplifying landslide occurrences and associated threats to communities. In this contribution, we analyze relationships between landslide occurrence and extreme rainfall events by using a "glass-box" machine learning model, namely Explainable Boosting Machine. What sets these models as a "glass-box" technique is their exact intelligibility, offering transparent explanations for their predictions. We leverage these capabilities to model the landslide occurrence induced by an extreme rainfall event in the form of spatial probability (i.e., susceptibility). In doing so, we use the heavy rainfall event in the Misa River Basin (Central Italy) on September 15, 2022. Notably, we introduce a rainfall anomaly among our set of predictors to express the intensity of the event compared to past rainfall patterns. Spatial variable selection and model evaluation through random and spatial routines are incorporated into our protocol. Our findings highlight the critical role of the rainfall anomaly as the most important variable in modeling landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, we leverage the dynamic nature of such a variable to estimate landslide occurrence under different rainfall scenarios.

Multitemporal Mapping of Post-Fire Land Cover Using Multiplatform PRISMA Hyperspectral and Sentinel-UAV Multispectral Data: Insights from Case Studies in Portugal and Italy.

Wildfires have affected global forests and the Mediterranean area with increasing recurrency and intensity in the last years, with climate change resulting in reduced precipitations and higher temperatures. To assess the impact of wildfires on the environment, burned area mapping has become progressively more relevant. Initially carried out via field sketches, the advent of satellite remote sensing opened new possibilities, reducing the cost uncertainty and safety of the previous techniques. In the present study an experimental methodology was adopted to test the potential of advanced remote sensing techniques such as multispectral Sentinel-2, PRISMA hyperspectral satellite, and UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) remotely-sensed data for the multitemporal mapping of burned areas by soil-vegetation recovery analysis in two test sites in Portugal and Italy. In case study one, innovative multiplatform data classification was performed with the correlation between Sentinel-2 RBR (relativized burn ratio) fire severity classes and the scene hyperspectral signature, performed with a pixel-by-pixel comparison leading to a converging classification. In the adopted methodology, RBR burned area analysis and vegetation recovery was tested for accordance with biophysical vegetation parameters (LAI, fCover, and fAPAR). In case study two, a UAV-sensed NDVI index was adopted for high-resolution mapping data collection. At a large scale, the Sentinel-2 RBR index proved to be efficient for burned area analysis, from both fire severity and vegetation recovery phenomena perspectives. Despite the elapsed time between the event and the acquisition, PRISMA hyperspectral converging classification based on Sentinel-2 was able to detect and discriminate different spectral signatures corresponding to different fire severity classes. At a slope scale, the UAV platform proved to be an effective tool for mapping and characterizing the burned area, giving clear advantage with respect to filed GPS mapping. Results highlighted that UAV platforms, if equipped with a hyperspectral sensor and used in a synergistic approach with PRISMA, would create a useful tool for satellite acquired data scene classification, allowing for the acquisition of a ground truth.

Applying Infrared Thermography to Soil Surface Temperature Monitoring: Case Study of a High-Resolution 48 h Survey in a Vineyard (Anadia, Portugal).

The soil surface albedo decreases with an increasing biochar application rate as a power decay function, but the net impact of biochar application on soil temperature dynamics remains to be clarified. The objective of this study was to assess the potential of infrared thermography (IRT) sensing by monitoring soil surface temperature (SST) with a high spatiotemporal and thermal resolution in a scalable agricultural application. We monitored soil surface temperature (SST) variations over a 48 h period for three treatments in a vineyard: bare soil (plot S), 100% biochar cover (plot B), and biochar-amended topsoil (plot SB). The SST of all plots was monitored at 30 min intervals with a tripod-mounted IR thermal camera. The soil temperature at 10 cm depth in the S and SB plots was monitored continuously with a 5 min resolution probe. Plot B had greater daily SST variations, reached a higher daily temperature peak relative to the other plots, and showed a faster rate of T increase during the day. However, on both days, the SST of plot B dipped below that of the control treatment (plot S) and biochar-amended soil (plot SB) from about 18:00 onward and throughout the night. The diurnal patterns/variations in the IRT-measured SSTs were closely related to those in the soil temperature at a 10 cm depth, confirming that biochar-amended soils showed lower thermal inertia than the unamended soil. The experiment provided interesting insights into SST variations at a local scale. The case study may be further developed using fully automated SST monitoring protocols at a larger scale for a range of environmental and agricultural applications.

Analysis of building deformation in landslide area using multisensor PSInSAR™ technique.

Buildings are sensitive to movements caused by ground deformation. The mapping both of spatial and temporal distribution, and of the degree of building damages represents a useful tool in order to understand the landslide evolution, magnitude and stress distribution. The high spatial resolution of space-borne SAR interferometry can be used to monitor displacements related to building deformations. In particular, PSInSAR technique is used to map and monitor ground deformation with millimeter accuracy. The usefulness of the above mentioned methods was evaluated in San Fratello municipality (Sicily, Italy), which was historically affected by landslides: the most recent one occurred on 14th February 2010. PSInSAR data collected by ERS 1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1 were used to study the building deformation velocities before the 2010 landslide. The X-band sensors COSMO-SkyMed and TerraSAR-X were used in order to monitor the building deformation after this event. During 2013, after accurate field inspection on buildings and structures, damage assessment map of San Fratello were created and then compared to the building deformation velocity maps. The most interesting results were obtained by the comparison between the building deformation velocity map obtained through COSMO-SkyMed and the damage assessment map. This approach can be profitably used by local and Civil Protection Authorities to manage the post-event phase and evaluate the residual risks.

Degradation of C2-C15 volatile organic compounds in a landfill cover soil.

The composition of non-methane volatile organic compounds (hereafter VOCs) in i) the cover soil, at depths of 30, 50 and 70 cm, and ii) gas recovery wells from Case Passerini landfill site, (Florence, Italy) was determined by GC-MS. The study, based on the analysis of interstitial gases sampled along vertical profiles within the cover soil, was aimed to investigate the VOC behaviour as biogas transits from a reducing to a relatively more oxidizing environment. A total of 48 and 63 different VOCs were identified in the soil and well gases, respectively. Aromatics represent the dominant group (71.5% of total VOC) in soil gases, followed by alkanes (6.8%), ketones (5.7%), organic acids (5.2%), aldehydes (3.0%), esters (2.6%), halogenated compounds (2.1%) and terpenes (1.3%). Cyclics, heterocyclics, S-bearing compounds and phenols are