Household Firearm Ownership and Firearm Mortality.

Importance: Causal associations between household firearm ownership rates (HFRs) and firearm mortality rates are not well understood. Objective: To assess the population-level temporal sequencing of firearm death rates and HFRs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used autoregressive cross-lagged models to analyze HFRs, firearm suicide rates, and firearm homicide rates in the US from 1990 to 2018. The suicide analyses included 16 demographic subgroups of adults, defined by study year, state, sex, race and ethnicity, marital status, and urbanicity. The homicide analyses consisted of adult subgroups living in urban or rural areas. Data analysis was conducted from March to December 2023. Exposures: Firearm mortality rates and HFRs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Firearm homicide and suicide rates with HFRs as the exposure, and HFR with mortality as the exposure. Results: A total of 10 416 observations of 16 demographic subgroups by state and 2-year periods were included in the suicide analyses, while 1302 observations from 2 demographic subgroups by state and 2-year period were included in the homicide analysis. At baseline, the mean (SD) rate per 100 000 population across strata was 7.46 (7.21) for firearm suicides and 3.32 (2.13) for firearm homicides. The mean (SD) baseline HFR was 36.9% (20.2%) for firearm suicides and 36.9% (14.8%) for firearm homicides. Higher HFR preceded increases in suicide rates: demographic strata with equal firearm suicide rates but which differ by 18.6 percentage points on HFR (1 SD) would be expected to have firearm suicide rates that diverged by 0.19 (95% CI, 0.15-0.23) deaths per 100 000 population per period. With these differences accumulated over 8 years, firearm suicide rates in subgroups with the highest decile HFR would be expected to have 1.93 (95% CI, 1.64-2.36) more suicides per 100 000 population than strata with lowest decile HFR, a difference of 25.7% of the overall firearm suicide rate in 2018 and 2019. Firearm suicide rates had a smaller magnitude of association with subsequent changes in HFR: strata with equal HFRs but which differ by 1 SD in firearm suicide rates had minimal subsequent change in HFRs (-0.02 [95% CI, -0.04 to 0.01] percentage points). A 1-SD difference in HFRs was associated with little difference in next-period overall firearm homicides rates (0.03 [95% CI, -0.02 to 0.08] per 100 000 population), but a 1-SD difference in homicide rates was associated with a decrease in HFR (-0.09 [95% CI, -0.16 to -0.04] percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found an association between high HFRs and subsequent increases in rates of firearm suicide. In contrast, higher firearm homicide rates preceded decreases in HFRs. By demonstrating the temporal sequencing of firearm ownership and mortality, this study may help to rule out some theories of why gun ownership and firearm mortality are associated at the population level.

State Policies Regulating Firearms and Changes in Firearm Mortality.

Importance: Despite high social and public health costs of firearm violence in the United States, the effects of many policies designed to reduce firearm mortality remain uncertain. Objective: To estimate the individual and joint effect sizes of state firearm policies on firearm-related mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this comparative effectiveness study, bayesian methods were used to model panel data of annual, state-level mortality rates (1979-2019) for all US firearm decedents, with analyses conducted in October 2023. Exposures: Six classes of firearms policies: background checks, minimum age, waiting periods, child access, concealed carry, and stand-your-ground laws. Main Outcome and Measures: Primary outcomes (total firearm deaths, firearm homicide deaths, and firearm suicide deaths) were assessed using the National Vital Statistics System. Bayesian estimation was used to estimate the partial association of changes in firearms policies with subsequent changes in firearm mortality. Results: The estimated effect sizes of individual policies 5 or more years after implementation were generally small in magnitude and had considerable uncertainty. The policy class with the highest probability of reducing firearm deaths was child-access prevention laws, estimated to reduce overall firearm mortality by 6% (80% credible interval [CrI], -2% to -9%). The policy class with the highest probability of increasing firearm deaths was stand-your-ground laws, estimated to increase firearm homicides by 6% (80% CrI, 0% to 13% increase). Estimates of association of implementing multiple firearm restrictions with subsequent changes in firearm mortality yielded larger effect sizes. Moving from the most permissive to most restrictive set of firearm policies was associated with an estimated 20% reduction in firearm deaths (80% CrI, 10% to 28% reduction), with a 0.99 probability of any reductions in firearm death rates. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness study of state firearm policies, the joint effect estimates of combinations of firearm laws were calculated, showing that restrictive firearm policies were associated with substantial reductions in firearm mortality. Although policymakers would benefit from knowing the effects of individual policies, the estimated changes in firearm mortality following implementation of individual policies were often small and uncertain.

Geographic and Demographic Differences in the Proportion of Individuals Living in Households With a Firearm, 1990-2018.

Importance: Measures of the proportion of individuals living in households with a firearm (HFR), over time, across states, and by demographic groups are needed to evaluate disparities in firearm violence and the effects of firearm policies. Objective: To estimate HFR across states, years, and demographic groups in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this survey study, substate HFR totals from 1990 to 2018 were estimated using bayesian multilevel regression with poststratification to analyze survey data on HFR from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the General Social Survey. HFR was estimated for 16 substate demographic groups defined by gender, race, marital status, and urbanicity in each state and year. Exposures: Survey responses indicating household firearm ownership were analyzed and compared with a common proxy for firearm ownership, the fraction of suicides completed with a firearm (FSS). Main Outcome and Measure: HFR, FSS, and their correlations and differences. Results: Among US adults in 2018, HFR was significantly higher among married, nonurban, non-Hispanic White and American Indian male individuals (65.0%; 95% credible interval [CI], 61.5%-68.7%) compared with their unmarried, urban, female counterparts from other racial and ethnic groups (7.3%; 95% CIs, 6.0%-9.2%). Marginal HFR rates for larger demographic groups also revealed important differences, with racial minority groups and urban dwellers having less than half the HFR of either White and American Indian (39.5%; 95% CI, 37.4%-42.9% vs 17.2%; 95% CI, 15.5%-19.9%) or nonurban populations (46.0%; 95% CI, 43.8%-49.5% vs 23.1%; 95% CI, 21.3%-26.2%). Population growth among groups less likely to own firearms, rather than changes in ownership within demographic groups, explains 30% of the 7 percentage point decline in HFR nationally from 1990 to 2018. Comparing HFR estimates with FSS revealed the expected high overall correlation across states (r = 0.84), but scaled FSS differed from HFR by as many as 20 percentage points for some states and demographic groups. Conclusions and Relevance: This survey study of HFR providing detailed, publicly available HFR estimates highlights key disparities among individuals in households with firearms across states and demographic groups; it also identifies potential biases in the use of FSS as a proxy for firearm ownership rates. These findings are essential for researchers, policymakers, and public health experts looking to address geographic and demographic disparities in firearm violence.

Racial and ethnic differences in the effects of state firearm laws: a systematic review subgroup analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite growing evidence about how state-level firearm regulations affect overall rates of injury and death, little is known about whether potential harms or benefits of firearm laws are evenly distributed across demographic subgroups. In this systematic review, we synthesized available evidence on the extent to which firearm policies produce differential effects by race and ethnicity on injury, recreational or defensive gun use, and gun ownership or purchasing behaviors. MAIN BODY: We searched 13 databases for English-language studies published between 1995 and February 28, 2023 that estimated a relationship between firearm policy in the USA and one of eight outcomes, included a comparison group, evaluated time series data, and provided estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. We used pre-specified criteria to evaluate the quality of inference and causal effect identification. By policy and outcome, we compared policy effects across studies and across racial/ethnic groups using two different ways to express effect sizes: incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and rate differences. Of 182 studies that used quasi-experimental methods to evaluate firearm policy effects, only 15 estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. These 15 eligible studies provided 57 separate policy effect comparisons across race/ethnicity, 51 of which evaluated interpersonal violence. In IRR terms, there was little consistent evidence that policies produced significantly different effects for different racial/ethnic groups. However, because of different baseline homicide rates, similar relative effects for some policies (e.g., universal background checks) translated into significantly greater absolute differences in homicide rates among Black compared to white victims. CONCLUSIONS: The current literature does not support strong conclusions about whether state firearm policies differentially benefit or harm particular racial/ethnic groups. This largely reflects limited attention to these questions in the literature and challenges with detecting such effects given existing data availability and statistical power. Findings also emphasize the need for additional rigorous research that adopts a more explicit focus on testing for racial differences in firearm policy effects and that assesses the quality of race/ethnicity information in firearm injury and crime datasets.

Comparison of Suicide Rates Among US Veteran and Nonveteran Populations.

This quality improvement study uses data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs to compare the relative risk of suicide among US veteran and nonveteran populations.

Gender Differences in Health Among U.S. Service Members: Unwanted Gender-Based Experiences as an Explanatory Factor.

Women serving in the U.S. military are more likely to report mental health problems than men, including symptoms of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Women also experience much higher rates of sexual harassment, gender discrimination, and sexual assault than men. This study examines how unwanted gender-based experiences among military service members relate to differences in health. The authors find that, once experiences of gender discrimination, sexual harassment, and sexual assault are accounted for, gender differences in health are largely attenuated. That is, the vulnerability to physical and mental health problems among female service members appears to be highly correlated with these unwanted gender-based experiences. The results highlight the possible health benefits of improved prevention of gender discrimination, sexual harassment, and sexual assault, and they indicate the need to address the mental and physical health of service members exposed to these types of experiences.

Inpatient Hospitalizations for Firearm Injury: Estimating State-Level Rates from 2000 to 2016.

One particular challenge for gun policy researchers is the lack of a single resource that provides reliable estimates of state-level firearm injuries over time. The data that do exist are sparse across state-years and cost-prohies affect deaths and injuries in the same manner. As part of the Gun Policy in America initiative, RAND researchers developed a publicly available longitudinal database of state-level estimates of inpatient hospitalizations that occur as a result of firearm injury. This article describes the methods that the researchers used to construct the estimates and provides technical documentation and other information that will facilitate use of the database.

Symptoms of Depression and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder as Predictors of Separation from the U.S. Military.

Populations affected by psychological distress are at risk of adverse career outcomes. The authors use data from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study and administrative personnel records of 17,502 U.S. military service members from 2014 to 2016 to evaluate the relationship between self-reported symptoms of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the U.S. military and subsequent service member separation rates. The authors find that self-reported symptoms of depression and PTSD were significantly associated with the odds of service member separation from the U.S. military. The odds that service members with symptoms suggestive of depressive disorders would separate from the military within the next 28 months were 2.62 times greater than the odds of service members with no symptoms of depression (95-percent confidence interval [CI] = 2.12, 3.22). Also, the odds that service members who reported symptoms of PTSD would separate from the military were 2.14 times greater than the odds of service members with no such symptoms (CI = 1.82, 2.51). The study's findings suggest that depression and PTSD symptoms, including subclinical symptoms, are related to subsequent separation from the military. Addressing mental-health needs could reduce negative employment outcomes that are costly for both the military and individual service members.

A New Era for Firearm Violence Prevention Research.

This Viewpoint discusses the expansion of firearm injury research that involves diverse disciplinary perspectives that could potentially lead to lifesaving policy innovation.

Better data, less gun violence.

For 25 years, the US government funded little research on firearm violence prevention. Although some dedicated researchers made important discoveries over this period, the scale of the research effort was not commensurate with the problem. Recently, however, there has been an unprecedented surge in research funding: the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research, a private philanthropy, has awarded more than $21 million since 2018; the federal government has committed $25 million per year since 2019; and some states and other philanthropies have recently invested in such research programs.

Comparing the Army's Suicide Rate to the General U.S. Population: Identifying Suitable Characteristics, Data Sources, and Analytic Approaches.

Over the past 15 years, the suicide rate among members of the U.S. armed forces has doubled, with the greatest increase observed among soldiers in the Army. This increasing rate is paralleled by a smaller increase in the general U.S. population, observed across both genders, in virtually every age group and in nearly every state. An empirical question exists: What is the extent or degree to which the suicide trend in the Army is unique to that service, relative to what is observed in the general U.S. population? The Army has typically attempted to address this question by standardizing the general population to look like the Army on demographic characteristics. However, given the rise in suicide rates over the past decade, the Army wanted to better understand whether standardization based solely on age and gender is enough. Expanding the characteristics on which the general population is standardized to match the Army could be useful to gain a better understanding of the suicide trends in the Army. However, such a change also brings with it some challenges, including the lack of readily available data in the general U.S. population. In addition, even an expanded set of characteristics still results in having a large number of unmeasured factors that cannot be included in this type of analysis. In this study, the authors explore how accounting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, time, marital status, and educational attainment affects suicide rate differences between soldiers and a comparable subset of the general U.S. population.

Impact on Nonfirearm Deaths of Firearm Laws Affecting Firearm Deaths: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background. There is debate whether policies that reduce firearm suicides or homicides are offset by increases in non-firearm-related deaths.Objectives. To assess the extent to which changes in firearm homicides and suicides following implementation of various gun laws affect nonfirearm homicides and suicides.Search Methods. We performed a literature search on 13 databases for studies published between 1995 and October 31, 2018 (PROSPERO CRD42019120105).Selection Criteria. We included studies if they (1) estimated an effect of 1 of 18 included classes of gun policy on firearm homicides or suicides, (2) included a control group or comparison group and evaluated time series data to establish that policies preceded their purported effects, and (3) provided estimated effects of the policy and inferential statistics for either total or nonfirearm homicides or suicides.Data Collection and Analysis. We extracted data from each study, including study timeframe, population, and statistical methods, as well as point estimates and inferential statistics for the effects of firearm policies on firearm deaths as well as either nonfirearm or overall deaths. We assessed quality at the estimate (study-policy-outcome) level by using prespecified criteria to evaluate the validity of inference and causal identification. For each estimate, we derived the mortality multiplier (i.e., the ratio of the policy's effect on total homicides or suicides; expressed as a change in the number of deaths) as a proportion of its effect on firearm homicides or suicides. Finally, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate overall mortality multipliers for suicide and homicide that account for both within- and between-study heterogeneity.Main Results. We identified 16 eligible studies (study timeframes spanning 1977-2015). All examined state-level policies in the United States, with most estimating effects of multiple policies, yielding 60 separate estimates of the mortality multiplier. From these, we estimated that a firearm law's effect on homicide, expressed as a change in the number of total homicide deaths, is 0.99 (95% confidence interval = 0.76, 1.22) times its effect on the number of firearm homicides. Thus, on average, changes in the number of firearm homicides caused by gun policies are neither offset nor compounded by second-order effects on nonfirearm homicides. There is insufficient evidence in the existing literature on suicide to indicate the extent to which the effects of gun policy changes on firearm suicides are offset or compounded by their effects on nonfirearm suicides.Authors' Conclusions. State gun policies that reduce firearm homicides are likely to reduce overall homicides in the state by approximately the same number. It is currently unknown whether the same holds for state gun policies that significantly reduce firearm suicides. The small number of studies meeting our inclusion criteria, issues of methodological quality within those studies, and the possibility of reporting bias are potential limitations of this review.Public Health Implications. Policies that reduce firearm homicides likely have large benefits for public health as there is little evidence to support a strong substitution effect between firearm and nonfirearm homicides at the population level. Further research is needed to determine whether policies that produce population-level reductions in firearm suicides will translate to overall declines in suicide rates.

Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use.

Although 39,000 individuals die annually from gunshots in the US, research examining the effects of laws designed to reduce these deaths has sometimes produced inconclusive or contradictory findings. We evaluated the effects on total firearm-related deaths of three classes of gun laws: child access prevention (CAP), right-to-carry (RTC), and stand your ground (SYG) laws. The analyses exploit changes in these state-level policies from 1970 to 2016, using Bayesian methods and a modeling approach that addresses several methodological limitations of prior gun policy evaluations. CAP laws showed the strongest evidence of an association with firearm-related death rate, with a probability of 0.97 that the death rate declined at 6 y after implementation. In contrast, the probability of being associated with an increase in firearm-related deaths was 0.87 for RTC laws and 0.77 for SYG laws. The joint effects of these laws indicate that the restrictive gun policy regime (having a CAP law without an RTC or SYG law) has a 0.98 probability of being associated with a reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive policy regime. This estimated effect corresponds to an 11% reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive legal regime. Our findings suggest that a small but meaningful decrease in firearm-related deaths may be associated with the implementation of more restrictive gun policies.

Linking Specialization and Seriousness in Criminal Careers.

Some research suggests that recidivistic criminal offending patterns typically progress in a stepping-stone manner from less to more serious forms of offending from childhood to adolescence to adulthood. Whether the progression into more serious types of offending reflects patterns of crime specialization is a matter of debate. Using data from 449 adolescent offenders who were interviewed at six time points between adolescence and adulthood, we present a new method for measuring crime specialization and apply it to an assessment of the link between specialization and offense seriousness. We measure specialization by constructing an empirical measure of how similar crimes are from each other based on the rate at which crimes co-occur within individual crime pathways over a given offender population. We then use these empirically-based population-specific offense similarities to assign a specialization score to each subject at each time period based on the set of crimes they self-report at that time. Finally, we examine how changes over time in specialization, within individuals, is correlated with changes in the seriousness of the offenses they report committing. Results suggest that the progression of crime into increasingly serious forms of offending does not reflect a general pattern of offense specialization. Implications for life course research are noted.

Associations between abstinence in adolescence and economic and educational outcomes seven years later among high-risk youth.

AIM: In this study, we investigated the relationship between abstinence and long-term educational and economic outcomes among a sample of high-risk youth. METHODS: Multivariable regression models were used to estimate associations between abstinence and outcomes among a sample of 13-17 year-olds referred to group homes in Los Angeles in 1999-2000 and followed for 87 months afterwards. Abstinence was measured during the first year of the study. We considered differential effects based on the duration of abstinence (12 vs. 6 months) and type of abstinence (all substances vs. use of alcohol and/or marijuana) on three 87-month outcomes: having received a high-school diploma or equivalent by age 20, institutionalization in the past 90 days, and total legitimate income for the past 90 days. RESULTS: Abstinence from all substances for 12 months was associated with positive long-term educational and economic outcomes relative to using any drug during the same time interval. Abstaining from all substances for 12 months was also associated with an increased likelihood of being a legitimate wage earner and decreased likelihood of being institutionalized relative to using only alcohol and/or marijuana during that time interval. No effect on long-term outcomes was seen among youth who abstained for only 6 months relative to those who used drugs during this interval, or for youth who used only alcohol and/or marijuana over 12 months vs. those who used other drugs during this interval. CONCLUSIONS: The results presented here justify continued and expanded efforts to promote long periods of abstinence from all drugs for high-risk youth.

How perceptions of mortality and HIV morbidity relate to substance abuse problems and risky sexual behaviors among former juvenile offenders.

This study investigates whether high-risk young adults' perceptions of their likelihood of living to age 35 and of acquiring HIV are related to their substance abuse problems and risky sexual behaviors. The sample consists of data from the 72- and 87-month follow-up assessments of 449 juvenile offenders referred to probation in 1999 and 2000. Results indicate that believing one is likely to get HIV is associated with having more concurrent substance use problems and engaging in more risky sexual behaviors. Longitudinal analyses indicate that youth who think they are likely to get HIV are at greater risk for later substance abuse problems and risky sexual behaviors, though these results are only marginally significant. The results demonstrate that respondents are aware of some of the risks associated with their recent substance using and sexual behaviors, but that holding these perceptions does not result in a reduction of these behaviors.

Shaping smoking cessation in hard-to-treat smokers.

OBJECTIVE: Contingency management (CM) effectively treats addictions by providing abstinence incentives. However, CM fails for many who do not readily become abstinent and earn incentives. Shaping may improve outcomes in these hard-to-treat (HTT) individuals. Shaping sets intermediate criteria for incentive delivery between the present behavior and total abstinence. This should result in HTT individuals having improving, rather than poor, outcomes. We examined whether shaping improved outcomes in HTT smokers (never abstinent during a 10-visit baseline). METHOD: Smokers were stratified into HTT (n = 96) and easier-to-treat (ETT [abstinent at least once during baseline]; n = 50) and randomly assigned to either CM or CM with shaping (CMS). CM provided incentives for breath carbon monoxide (CO) levels <4 ppm (approximately 1 day of abstinence). CMS shaped abstinence by providing incentives for COs lower than the 7th lowest of the participant's last 9 samples or <4 ppm. Interventions lasted for 60 successive weekday visits. RESULTS: Cluster analysis identified 4 groups of participants: stable successes, improving, deteriorating, and poor outcomes. In comparison with ETT, HTT participants were more likely to belong to 1 of the 2 unsuccessful clusters (odds ratio [OR] = 8.1, 95% CI [3.1, 21]). This difference was greater with CM (OR = 42, 95% CI [5.9, 307]) than with CMS, in which the difference between HTT and ETT participants was not significant. Assignment to CMS predicted membership in the improving (p = .002) as compared with the poor outcomes cluster. CONCLUSION: Shaping can increase CM's effectiveness for HTT smokers.