Safety and Efficacy of SAB-185 for Non-hospitalized Adults with COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: To address the need for novel COVID-19 therapies, we evaluated the fully-human polyclonal antibody product SAB-185 in a phase 3 clinical trial. METHODS: Non-hospitalized high-risk adults within 7 days of COVID-19 symptom onset were randomized 1:1 to open-label SAB-185 3,840 units/kg or casirivimab/imdevimab 1200 mg. Non-inferiority comparison was undertaken for the pre-Omicron population (casirivimab/imdevimab expected to be fully active) and superiority comparison for the Omicron population (casirivimab/imdevimab not expected to be active). Primary outcomes were the composite of all-cause hospitalizations/deaths and grade ≥3 treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) through day 28. Secondary outcomes included time to sustained symptom improvement and resolution. RESULTS: Enrollment was terminated early due to low hospitalization/death rates upon Omicron emergence. 733 adults were randomized, 255 included in pre-Omicron and 392 in Omicron analysis populations. Hospitalizations/deaths occurred in 6 (5.0%) and 3 (2.2%) of pre-Omicron SAB-185 and casirivimab/imdevimab arms, respectively (absolute difference [95% CI] 2.7% [-2.3%, 8.6%]), inconclusive for non-inferiority; and 5 (2.5%) versus 3 (1.5%) (absolute difference 1.0% [-2.3%, 4.5%]) for Omicron. Risk ratios for grade ≥3 TEAEs were 0.94 [0.52, 1.71] (pre-Omicron) and 1.71 [0.96, 3.07] (Omicron). Time to symptom improvement and resolution were shorter for SAB-185, median 11 vs 14 (pre-Omicron) and 11 vs 13 days (Omicron) (symptom improvement), and 16 vs 24 days and 18 vs >25 days (symptom resolution), p<0.05 for symptom resolution for Omicron only. CONCLUSIONS: SAB-185 had an acceptable safety profile with faster symptom resolution in the Omicron population. Additional studies are needed to characterize its efficacy for COVID-19.

Effects of Semaglutide on Muscle Structure and Function in the SLIM LIVER Study.

BACKGROUND: Semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, is highly effective for decreasing weight. Concomitant loss of muscle mass often accompanies weight loss and may have consequences on muscle function. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis from the SLIM LIVER (ACTG A5371) study, a single-arm study of semaglutide in people with HIV (PWH) with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disorder (MASLD). Participants received subcutaneous semaglutide for 24 weeks (titrated to 1 mg/week by week 4). Psoas volume and fat fraction were assessed from liver magnetic resonance imaging and physical function by 10-time chair rise test and 4m gait speed. Mean change from baseline to week 24 was estimated with linear regression modeling. RESULTS: 51 PWH enrolled; muscle measures were available from 46 participants. The mean age was 50 (standard deviation [SD] 11) years and BMI 35.5 (5.6) kg/m2, 43% were women, 33% Black, and 39% Hispanic/Latino. Psoas muscle volume decreased by 9.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -13.4, -5.2; p<0.001) over 24 weeks but psoas muscle fat did not significantly change (-0.42%, CI: -1.00, 0.17; p=0.16). Chair rise and gait speed had non-significant improvements of 1.27 seconds (CI: -2.7, 0.10) and 0.05 m/sec (CI: -0.01, 0.10), respectively (both p>0.07). The prevalence of slow gait speed (< 1 m/sec) decreased from 63% to 46% (p=0.029). CONCLUSIONS: In PWH receiving low-dose semaglutide for MASLD, despite decreased psoas muscle volume, there was no significant change in physical function. This suggests that function was maintained despite significant loss of muscle concomitant with weight loss.

SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody treatment followed by vaccination shifts human memory B cell epitope recognition suggesting antibody feedback.

Therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been studied in humans, but the impact on immune memory of mAb treatment during an ongoing infection has remained unclear. We evaluated the effect of infusion of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD) mAb bamlanivimab on memory B cells (MBCs) in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals. Bamlanivimab treatment skewed the repertoire of memory B cells targeting Spike towards non-RBD epitopes. Furthermore, the relative affinity of RBD memory B cells was weaker in mAb-treated individuals compared to placebo-treated individuals over time. Subsequently, after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, memory B cell differences persisted and mapped to a specific reduction in recognition of the class II RBD site, the same RBD epitope recognized by bamlanivimab. These findings indicate a substantial role of antibody feedback in regulating memory B cell responses to infection, and single mAb administration can continue to impact memory B cell responses to additional antigen exposures months later.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Plasma Antibody and Nucleocapsid Antigen Status Predict Outcomes in Outpatients With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Reliable biomarkers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes are critically needed. We evaluated associations of spike antibody (Ab) and plasma nucleocapsid antigen (N Ag) with clinical outcomes in nonhospitalized persons with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. METHODS: Participants were nonhospitalized adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 enrolled in ACTIV-2 between January and July 2021 and randomized to placebo. We used quantitative assays for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 spike Ab and N Ag in blood and determined numbers of hospitalization/death events within 28 days and time to symptom improvement. RESULTS: Of 209 participants, 77 (37%) had quantifiable spike Ab and 139 (67%) quantifiable N Ag. Median age was 50 years; 111 (53%) were female, 182 (87%) White, and 105 (50%) Hispanic/Latino. Higher risk of hospitalization/death was seen with unquantifiable (22/132 [16.7%]) versus quantifiable (1/77 [1.3%]) spike Ab (risk ratio [RR], 12.83 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.76-93.34]) and quantifiable (22/139 [15.8%]) vs unquantifiable (1/70 [1.4%]) N Ag (RR, 11.08 [95% CI, 1.52-80.51]). Increasing risk of hospitalizations/deaths was seen with increasing N Ag levels. Time to symptom improvement was longer with unquantifiable versus quantifiable spike Ab (median, 14 [interquartile range {IQR}, 8 to >27] vs 8 [IQR, 4-22] days; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.66 [95% CI, .45-.96]) and with quantifiable versus unquantifiable N Ag (median, 12 [7 to >27] vs 10 [5-22] days; aHR, 0.79 [95% CI, .52-1.21]). CONCLUSIONS: Absence of spike Ab and presence of plasma N Ag predicted hospitalization/death and delayed symptom improvement in COVID-19 outpatients.

Machine learning models based on fluid immunoproteins that predict non-AIDS adverse events in people with HIV.

Despite the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), individuals with HIV remain at risk for experiencing non-AIDS adverse events (NAEs), including cardiovascular complications and malignancy. Several surrogate immune biomarkers in blood have shown predictive value in predicting NAEs; however, composite panels generated using machine learning may provide a more accurate advancement for monitoring and discriminating NAEs. In a nested case-control study, we aimed to develop machine learning models to discriminate cases (experienced an event) and matched controls using demographic and clinical characteristics alongside 49 plasma immunoproteins measured prior to and post-ART initiation. We generated support vector machine (SVM) classifier models for high-accuracy discrimination of individuals aged 30-50 years who experienced non-fatal NAEs at pre-ART and one-year post-ART. Extreme gradient boosting generated a high-accuracy model at pre-ART, while K-nearest neighbors performed poorly all around. SVM modeling may offer guidance to improve disease monitoring and elucidate potential therapeutic interventions.

Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of Combination SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies BMS-986414 (C135-LS) and BMS-986413 (C144-LS) Administered Subcutaneously in Non-Hospitalized Persons with COVID-19 in a Phase 2 Trial.

Background: Outpatient COVID-19 monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment via subcutaneous delivery, if effective, overcomes the logistical burdens of intravenous administration. Methods: ACTIV-2/A5401 was a randomized, masked placebo-controlled platform trial where participants with COVID-19 at low risk for progression were randomized 1:1 to subcutaneously administered BMS-986414 (C135-LS) 200 mg, plus BMS-986413 (C144-LS) 200 mg, (BMS mAbs), or placebo. Coprimary outcomes were time to symptom improvement through 28 days; nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA below the lower limit of quantification (LLoQ) on days 3, 7, or 14; and treatment-emergent grade 3 or higher adverse events (TEAEs) through 28 days. Results: A total of 211 participants (105 BMS mAbs and 106 placebo) initiated study product. Time to symptom improvement favored the active therapy but was not significant (median 8 vs 10 days, P=0.19). There was no significant difference in the proportion with SARS-CoV-2 RNA

Characterization of treatment resistance and viral kinetics in the setting of single- versus dual-active monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) represent a crucial antiviral strategy for SARS-CoV-2 infection, but it is unclear whether combination mAbs offer a benefit over single-active mAb treatment. Amubarvimab and romlusevimab significantly reduced the risk of hospitalizations or death in the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Certain SARS-CoV-2 variants are intrinsically resistant against romlusevimab, leading to only single-active mAb therapy with amubarvimab in these variants. We evaluated virologic outcomes in individuals treated with single- versus dual-active mAbs. METHODS: Participants were non-hospitalized adults at higher risk of clinical progression randomized to amubarvimab plus romlusevimab or placebo. Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and targeted S gene next-generation sequencing was performed on anterior nasal samples. We compared viral load kinetics and resistance emergence between individuals treated with effective single- versus dual-active mAbs depending on the infecting variant. RESULTS: Study participants receiving single- and dual-active mAbs had similar demographics, baseline nasal viral load, symptom score, and symptom duration. Compared to single-active mAb, treatment with dual-active mAbs led to faster viral load decline at study day 3 (p < 0.001) and day 7 (p < 0.01). Treatment-emergent resistance mutations were more likely to be detected after amubarvimab plus romlusevimab treatment than placebo (2.6% vs 0%, P < 0.001), and more frequently detected in the setting of single-active compared to dual-active mAb treatment (7.2% vs 1.1%, p < 0.01). Single-active and dual-active mAb treatment resulted in similar decrease in rates of hospitalizations or death. CONCLUSION: Compared to single-active mAb therapy, dual-active mAbs led to similar clinical outcomes, but significantly faster viral load decline and a lower risk of emergent resistance.

Wilms' tumor 1 (WT1) antigen is overexpressed in Kaposi Sarcoma and is regulated by KSHV vFLIP.

In people living with HIV, Kaposi Sarcoma (KS), a vascular neoplasm caused by KS herpesvirus (KSHV/HHV-8), remains one of the most common malignancies worldwide. Individuals living with HIV, receiving otherwise effective antiretroviral therapy, may present with extensive disease requiring chemotherapy. Hence, new therapeutic approaches are needed. The Wilms' tumor 1 (WT1) protein is overexpressed and associated with poor prognosis in several hematologic and solid malignancies and has shown promise as an immunotherapeutic target. We found that WT1 was overexpressed in >90% of a total 333 KS biopsies, as determined by immunohistochemistry and image analysis. Our largest cohort from ACTG, consisting of 294 cases was further analyzed demonstrating higher WT1 expression was associated with more advanced histopathologic subtypes. There was a positive correlation between the proportion of infected cells within KS tissues, assessed by expression of the KSHV-encoded latency-associated nuclear antigen (LANA), and WT1 positivity. Areas with high WT1 expression showed sparse T-cell infiltrates, consistent with an immune evasive tumor microenvironment. We show that major oncogenic isoforms of WT1 are overexpressed in primary KS tissue and observed WT1 upregulation upon de novo infection of endothelial cells with KSHV. KSHV latent viral FLICE-inhibitory protein (vFLIP) upregulated total and major isoforms of WT1, but upregulation was not seen after expression of mutant vFLIP that is unable to bind IKKÆ´ and induce NFκB. siRNA targeting of WT1 in latent KSHV infection resulted in decreased total cell number and pAKT, BCL2 and LANA protein expression. Finally, we show that ESK-1, a T cell receptor-like monoclonal antibody that recognizes WT1 peptides presented on MHC HLA-A0201, demonstrates increased binding to endothelial cells after KSHV infection or induction of vFLIP expression. We propose that oncogenic isoforms of WT1 are upregulated by KSHV to promote tumorigenesis and immunotherapy directed against WT1 may be an approach for KS treatment.

SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody treatment followed by vaccination shifts human memory B cell epitope recognition suggesting antibody feedback.

Therapeutic anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been extensively studied in humans, but the impact on immune memory of mAb treatment during an ongoing immune response has remained unclear. Here, we evaluated the effect of infusion of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD) mAb bamlanivimab on memory B cells (MBCs) in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals. Bamlanivimab treatment skewed the repertoire of memory B cells targeting Spike towards non-RBD epitopes. Furthermore, the relative affinity of RBD memory B cells was weaker in mAb-treated individuals compared to placebo-treated individuals over time. Subsequently, after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, memory B cell differences persisted and mapped to a specific defect in recognition of the class II RBD site, the same RBD epitope recognized by bamlanivimab. These findings indicate a substantial role of antibody feedback in regulating human memory B cell responses, both to infection and vaccination. These data indicate that mAb administration can promote alterations in the epitopes recognized by the B cell repertoire, and the single administration of mAb can continue to determine the fate of B cells in response to additional antigen exposures months later.

Early antiviral CD4 and CD8 T cell responses are associated with upper respiratory tract clearance of SARS-CoV-2.

T cells are involved in protective immunity against numerous viral infections. Limited data have been available regarding roles of human T cell responses controlling SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance in primary COVID-19. Here, we examined longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 upper respiratory tract viral RNA levels and early adaptive immune responses from 95 unvaccinated individuals with acute COVID-19. Acute SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses were evaluated in addition to antibody responses. Most individuals with acute COVID-19 developed rapid SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses during infection, and both early CD4 T cell and CD8 T cell responses correlated with reduced upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA, independent of neutralizing antibody titers. Overall, our findings indicate a distinct protective role for SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells during acute COVID-19.

Safety and efficacy of inhaled interferon-ß1a (SNG001) in adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19: a randomized, controlled, phase II trial.

Background: With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants resistant to monoclonal antibody therapies and limited global access to therapeutics, the evaluation of novel therapeutics to prevent progression to severe COVID-19 remains a critical need. Methods: Safety, clinical and antiviral efficacy of inhaled interferon-ß1a (SNG001) were evaluated in a phase II randomized controlled trial on the ACTIV-2/A5401 platform (ClinicalTrials.govNCT04518410). Adult outpatients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 10 days of symptom onset were randomized and initiated either orally inhaled nebulized SNG001 given once daily for 14 days (n = 110) or blinded pooled placebo (n = 110) between February 10 and August 18, 2021. Findings: The proportion of participants reporting premature treatment discontinuation was 9% among SNG001 and 13% among placebo participants. There were no differences between participants who received SNG001 or placebo in the primary outcomes of treatment emergent Grade 3 or higher adverse events (3.6% and 8.2%, respectively), time to symptom improvement (median 13 and 9 days, respectively), or proportion with unquantifiable nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA at days 3 (28% [26/93] vs. 39% [37/94], respectively), 7 (65% [60/93] vs. 66% [62/94]) and 14 (91% [86/95] vs. 91% [83/81]). There were fewer hospitalizations with SNG001 (n = 1; 1%) compared with placebo (n = 7; 6%), representing an 86% relative risk reduction (p = 0.07). There were no deaths in either arm. Interpretation: In this trial, SNG001 was safe and associated with a non-statistically significant decrease in hospitalization for COVID-19 pneumonia. Funding: The ACTIV-2 platform study is funded by the NIH. Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number UM1 AI068634, UM1 AI068636 and UM1 AI106701. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Association Between Anterior Nasal and Plasma SARS-CoV-2 RNA Levels and Hospitalization or Death in Nonhospitalized Adults With Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA as a predictor for clinical outcomes in outpatients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Anterior nasal (AN) and plasma SARS-CoV-2 RNA data from 2115 nonhospitalized adults who received monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) or placebo in the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial were analyzed for associations with hospitalization or death. RESULTS: One hundred two participants were hospitalized or died through 28 days of follow-up. Higher day 0 (pretreatment) AN RNA was associated with increasing risk of hospitalization/death (risk ratio [RR], 1.24 per log10 copies/mL [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.04-1.49]) among placebo recipients, ranging from 3% to 16% for <2 to ≥6 log10 copies/mL. Although only 1% had quantifiable levels, there was a similar trend across day 0 plasma RNA categories. Higher day 3 AN RNA was associated with subsequent hospitalization/death among placebo recipients (RR, 1.42 per log10 copies/mL [95% CI, 1.00-2.03]), but not mAb recipients (RR, 1.02 per log10 copies/mL [95% CI, 0.68-1.56]). The proportion of treatment effect (reduction in hospitalizations/deaths after day 3 for mAb vs placebo) explained by day 3 AN RNA was 8%. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels are predictive of hospitalization/death in the natural history setting, but AN RNA levels may not be a reliable surrogate marker of mAb treatment effect in COVID-19 trials. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

ACTIV-2: A Platform Trial for the Evaluation of Novel Therapeutics for the Treatment of Early COVID-19 in Outpatients.

Clinical Trials Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04518410.

Variant-Specific Viral Kinetics in Acute COVID-19.

Understanding variant-specific differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics may explain differences in transmission efficiency and provide insights on pathogenesis and prevention. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 kinetics from nasal swabs across multiple variants (Alpha, Delta, Epsilon, Gamma) in placebo recipients of the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Delta variant infection led to the highest maximum viral load and shortest time from symptom onset to viral load peak. There were no significant differences in time to viral clearance across the variants. Viral decline was biphasic with first- and second-phase decays having half-lives of 11 hours and 2.5 days, respectively, with differences among variants, especially in the second phase. These results suggest that while variant-specific differences in viral kinetics exist, post-peak viral load all variants appeared to be efficiently cleared by the host. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Immune Status and SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics.

Immunocompromised individuals are disproportionately affected by severe coronavirus disease 2019, but immune compromise is heterogenous, and viral dynamics may vary by the degree of immunosuppression. In this study, we categorized ACTIV-2/A5401 participants based on the extent of immunocompromise into none, mild, moderate, and severe immunocompromise. Moderate/severe immunocompromise was associated with higher nasal viral load at enrollment (adjusted difference in means: 0.47 95% confidence interval, .12-.83 log10 copies/mL) and showed a trend toward higher cumulative nasal RNA levels and plasma viremia compared to nonimmunocompromised individuals. Immunosuppression leads to greater viral shedding and altered severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral decay kinetics. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Pooling Different Placebos as a Control Group in a Randomized Platform Trial: Benefits and Challenges From Experience in the ACTIV-2 COVID-19 Trial.

Adaptive platform trials were implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to rapidly evaluate therapeutics, including the placebo-controlled phase 2/3 ACTIV-2 trial, which studied 7 investigational agents with diverse routes of administration. For each agent, safety and efficacy outcomes were compared to a pooled placebo control group, which included participants who received a placebo for that agent or for other agents in concurrent evaluation. A 2-step randomization framework was implemented to facilitate this. Over the study duration, the pooled placebo design achieved a reduction in sample size of 6% versus a trial involving distinct placebo control groups for evaluating each agent. However, a 26% reduction was achieved during the period when multiple agents were in parallel phase 2 evaluation. We discuss some of the complexities implementing the pooled placebo design versus a design involving nonoverlapping control groups, with the aim of informing the design of future platform trials. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Long COVID After Bamlanivimab Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Prospective evaluations of long COVID in outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. We aimed to determine the frequency and predictors of long COVID after treatment with the monoclonal antibody bamlanivimab in ACTIV-2/A5401. METHODS: Data were analyzed from participants who received bamlanivimab 700 mg in ACTIV-2 from October 2020 to February 2021. Long COVID was defined as the presence of self-assessed COVID symptoms at week 24. Self-assessed return to pre-COVID health was also examined. Associations were assessed by regression models. RESULTS: Among 506 participants, median age was 51 years. Half were female, 5% Black/African American, and 36% Hispanic/Latino. At 24 weeks, 18% reported long COVID and 15% had not returned to pre-COVID health. Smoking (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 2.41 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.34- 4.32]), female sex (aRR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.28-2.85]), non-Hispanic ethnicity (aRR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.19-3.13]), and presence of symptoms 22-28 days posttreatment (aRR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.63-4.46]) were associated with long COVID, but nasal severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 RNA was not. CONCLUSIONS: Long COVID occurred despite early, effective monoclonal antibody therapy and was associated with smoking, female sex, and non-Hispanic ethnicity, but not viral burden. The strong association between symptoms 22-28 days after treatment and long COVID suggests that processes of long COVID start early and may need early intervention. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04518410.

Validity and Characterization of Time to Symptom Resolution Outcome Measures in the ACTIV-2/A5401 Outpatient COVID-19 Treatment Trial.

BACKGROUND: Time to symptom resolution measures were used in outpatient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment trials without prior validation. METHODS: ACTIV-2/A5401 trial participants completed a COVID-19 diary assessing 13 targeted symptoms and global experience (overall COVID-19 symptoms, return to pre-COVID-19 health) daily for 29 days. We evaluated concordance of time to sustained (2 days) resolution of all targeted symptoms (TSR) with resolution of overall symptoms and return to health in participants receiving placebo. RESULTS: The analysis included 77 high-risk and 81 standard-risk participants with overall median 6 days of symptoms at entry and median age 47 years, 50% female, 82% white, and 31% Hispanic/Latino. Correlation between TSR and resolution of overall symptoms was 0.80 and 0.68, and TSR and return to health, 0.66 and 0.57 for high- and standard-risk groups, respectively. Of the high- and standard-risk participants, 61% and 79%, respectively, achieved targeted symptom resolution, of which 47% and 43%, respectively, reported symptom recurrence. Requiring >2 days to define sustained resolution reduced the frequency of recurrences. CONCLUSIONS: There was good internal consistency between TSR and COVID-19-specific global outcomes, supporting TSR as a trial end point. Requiring >2 days of symptom resolution better addresses natural symptom fluctuations but must be balanced against the potential influence of non-COVID-19 symptoms. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04518410.

Statistical Challenges When Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 RNA Measurements Below the Assay Limit of Quantification in COVID-19 Clinical Trials.

Most clinical trials evaluating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapeutics include assessments of antiviral activity. In recently completed outpatient trials, changes in nasal severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA levels from baseline were commonly assessed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) or mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) with single imputation for results below assay lower limits of quantification (LLoQ). Analyzing changes in viral RNA levels with singly imputed values can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects. In this article, using an illustrative example from the ACTIV-2 trial, we highlight potential pitfalls of imputation when using ANCOVA or MMRM methods, and illustrate how these methods can be used when considering values