Key Interpretation Challenges for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology of Illicit Drugs: A Norwegian Three-City Case Study.

INTRODUCTION: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a timely, non-invasive, and cost-effective indicator of illicit drug consumption. It is increasingly used by international organizations as a proxy measure for estimates of drug prevalence and related trends. Nevertheless, the literature exploring the limitations of WBE remains limited. This paper aims to shed further light on important shortcomings of WBE with recommendations on moving forward. METHOD: Utilizing case study and statistical analysis, the paper critically reviews methodological challenges associated with WBE results related to (i) levels, (ii) trends, and (iii) between-city comparisons of drug use. Data from raw influent wastewater samples from wastewater plants in the cities of Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger/Sandnes were analysed for amphetamine, methamphetamine, MDMA, and cocaine (benzoylecgonine) over a 3-year period. Normalized population loads were calculated and variation in daily loads analysed with plots and estimation of means, confidence intervals, and coefficient of variation. Linear regression models examined trends and between-city differences. RESULTS: Plots and statistical analyses revealed extensive variation in daily loads, with min/max values of 6.1/453.9 mg/day per 1,000 inhabitants 15-64 years for amphetamine and correspondingly 9.4/675.9 mg for methamphetamine. Substantial differences in load levels and patterns across time and plants were also observed. A carefully designed sampling procedure and a relatively large number of daily samples are required to obtain estimates of sufficient precision for determining trends in space or time. Cross-referencing with alternative trend variables can improve the interpretation of WBE trend indicators. Finally, when using mean load levels for different wastewater-treatment plants to assess spatial variation in drug use, the representativeness of the catchment area should be evaluated before interpreting observed changes as city differences. CONCLUSION: Although WBE is a useful supplementary indicator of illicit drug consumption, important methodological issues and potential shortcomings should be taken into account when designing sampling procedures and interpreting the analytical results.

The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on drug service provision in European prisons.

PURPOSE: This paper aims to describe the impact of the COVID-19 containment measures on the provision of drug treatment and harm reduction services in European prisons in15 countries during the early phase of the pandemic (March -June 2020). DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The paper is based on a mixed method research approach that triangulates different data sources, including the results of an on-line survey, the outcome of a focus group and four national case studies. FINDINGS: The emergence of COVID-19 led to a disruption in prison drug markets and resulted in a number of challenges for the drug services provision inside prison. Challenges for health services included the need to maintain the provision of drug-related interventions inside prison, while introducing a range of COVID-19 containment measures. To reduce contacts between people, many countries introduced measures for early release, resulted in around a 10% reduction of the prison population in Europe. Concerns were expressed around reduction of drug-related interventions, including group activities, services by external agencies, interventions in preparation for release and continuity of care. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Innovations aimed at improving drug service provision included telemedicine, better partnership between security and health staff and an approach to drug treatment more individualised. Future developments must be closely monitored. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The paper provides a unique and timely overview of the main issues, challenges and initial adaptations implemented for drug services in European prisons in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trends in MDMA-related mortality across four countries.

AIMS: To determine trends in 3,4 methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA)-related death rates across Australia, Finland, Portugal and Turkey and to analyse the toxicology and causes of death across countries. DESIGN: Analysis of MDMA-related deaths extracted from a national coronial database in Australia (2001-19) and national forensic toxicology databases in Finland (2001-17), Portugal (2008-19) and Turkey (2007-17). Presentation of MDMA use and seizure data (market indicators). SETTING: Australia, Finland, Portugal and Turkey. CASES: All deaths in which MDMA was considered by the forensic pathologist to be contributory to death. MEASUREMENTS: Information collected on cause and circumstances of death, demographics and toxicology. FINDINGS: A total of 1400 MDMA-related deaths were identified in Turkey, 507 in Australia, 100 in Finland and 45 in Portugal. The median age ranged from 24 to 27.5 years, and males represented between 81 and 94% of the deaths across countries. Standardized mortality rates significantly increased across all four countries from 2011 to 2017 during a period of increased purity and availability of MDMA. The underlying cause of death was predominantly due to drug toxicity in Australia (n = 309, 61%), Finland (n = 70, 70%) and Turkey (n = 840, 60%) and other causes in Portugal (n = 25, 56%). Minorities of all deaths across the countries were due to MDMA toxicity alone (13-25%). These deaths had a significantly higher blood MDMA concentration than multiple drug toxicity deaths in Australia, Finland and Turkey. Drugs other than MDMA commonly detected were stimulants (including cocaine, amphetamine and methamphetamine) (Australia 52% and Finland 61%) and alcohol (Australia 46% and Portugal 49%). In addition to MDMA toxicity, benzodiazepines (81%) and opioids (64%) were commonly identified in these deaths in Finland. In comparison, synthetic cannabinoids (15%) and cannabis (33%) were present in a minority of deaths in Turkey. CONCLUSIONS: Deaths related to 3,4 methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) increased in Australia, Finland, Portugal and Turkey between 2011 and 2017. Findings show MDMA toxicity alone can be fatal, but multiple drug toxicity remains more prevalent.

The Double Effect of COVID-19 Confinement Measures and Economic Recession on High-Risk Drug Users and Drug Services.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a profound impact on the lives of high-risk drug users and on the services responding to their needs in at least two important ways: first, through the restrictive measures introduced to mitigate the spread of the virus and, second, as a result of extensive economic downturn. Currently there is great uncertainty as to the future intensity and duration of the pandemic. In addition, the lessons we have been able to learn from previous economic downturns may be of limited applicability to the current situation, which differs in a number of significant respects. Experience nevertheless suggests that the potential consequences for drug users' health and well-being may be severe. The ongoing uncertainty serves to underline the importance of close monitoring of the drug situation and preparing flexible and innovative solutions to be able to meet new challenges which may arise.

Is Europe facing an opioid epidemic: What does European monitoring data tell us?

This paper addresses the question of whether Europe is facing an opioid epidemic and utilizes data from the European monitoring system on opioid use, harms and availability, to help assess the situation. Data sources covering the last decade on overdose deaths, drug treatment entrants and drug-related emergencies suggest that the health burden associated with opioid use is mostly related to the consumption of heroin - and to a lesser extent diverted opioid substitution treatment medications - and that it is primarily affecting an ageing cohort of vulnerable users, with little evidence of an increase in initiation. While opioid-related deaths are currently at much lower levels than in the United States, they still represent a large preventable health burden with differences across EU countries. There is also increasing concern related to the high availability of heroin, illicitly produced synthetic opioids and diverted opioid pain medications on the European drugs market. Trends in the latter categories are poorly monitored and we may miss signs of emerging problems. Moreover, the economic recession following the COVID-19 pandemic has a potential to lead to resurgence in opioid use and harms. SIGNIFICANCE: This paper looks at data from the European monitoring system to address the question of whether Europe is facing an opioid epidemic. It reviews available health and supply side indicators, considering the limitations of each data source. A summary of the available evidence would suggest that while opioid-related deaths in Europe represent a large preventable health burden with differences across EU countries, Europe as a whole is not facing an opioid crisis of the size and nature seen in the US.

The Experience of the Treatment Demand Indicator in Europe: A Common Monitoring Tool Across 30 Countries.

OBJECTIVE: The article describes an epidemiological indicator called Treatment Demand Indicator (TDI). The TDI aims to provide professionals and researchers with a common European methodology for collecting and reporting core data on drug users in contact with treatment services. The article discusses the implementation of the TDI in the European countries and describes the main results, limitations, and future perspectives. METHOD: The TDI provides a common format for reporting data on clients entering treatment as a result of their drug use and related problems during each calendar year. Its technical protocol defines which clients should be reported at European level and represents the minimum common set of items each national monitoring system should be able to report to the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. RESULTS: In 2015, 29 European countries reported data on 467,811 clients entering drug treatment from 6,846 drug treatment units. Most clients were men in their 30s and had problems related to heroin or cannabis use; patterns of drug use differed geographically. Over the past decade, clients' profiles and drug use patterns changed from young heroin injectors seeking treatment to drug clients with diversified drug use patterns and profiles. CONCLUSIONS: The TDI is the largest drug dataset in Europe, and its data is increasingly used in European and national data analysis. The use of a common drug-treatment-monitoring tool across a group of countries provides a useful instrument for policymakers, professionals, and managers working in the drug treatment field.

Nine reasons why ecstasy is not quite what it used to be.

This paper explores the recent resurgence in use of ecstasy/MDMA in Europe and highlights keys areas of continuity and divergence between the ecstasy market of the 1990s and the current MDMA market. Based on a scoping study involving a targeted multi-source data collection exercise on MDMA, it highlights nine areas that have undergone some level of change, linked with both supply and demand for the drug. Factors discussed include: innovation in production techniques; changes in precursor chemical availability; the role of online markets; competition with other stimulants and new psychoactive substances; the increased availability of high-strength MDMA; and the shift from subcultural towards more mainstream use of the drug. The paper proposes that the MDMA on Europe's contemporary market is in some respects a third generation product with a different consumer profile, with implications that responses developed at the time of the drug's earlier iteration, may be in need of a review and revamp.

Cannabis Use among People Entering Drug Treatment in Europe: A Growing Phenomenon?

This paper explores European and national trends in specialised drug treatment entry for cannabis-related problems. The analysis is based on data for the years 2003-2014 from 22 European countries. Between 2003 and 2014, the overall number and proportion of primary cannabis-related first-time entrants increased significantly. A joinpoint regression analysis indicates that the overall increase of cannabis treatment entries is continuous, although country-related differences are observed. Possible explanations for the increase and different time trends are discussed including an increase in cannabis prevalence and cannabis-related problems, changes in risk perception, increases in cannabis potency, changes in referral practices and increased availability and accessibility of treatment services.

New psychoactive substances: Current health-related practices and challenges in responding to use and harms in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The availability of new psychoactive substances (NPS) in Europe has rapidly increased over the last decade. Although prevalence levels of NPS use remain low in the general European population, there are serious concerns associated with more problematic forms of use and harms in particular populations and settings. It has thus become a priority to formulate and implement effective public health responses. However, considerable knowledge gaps remain on current practices as well as on the challenges and needs of European health professionals who are responding to use and harms caused by these substances. The aim of this study was to explore current health responses to NPS, and highlight key issues in order to inform planning and implementation of adequate responses. METHODS: This scoping study was based on a targeted multi-source data collection exercise focusing on the provision of health and drug interventions associated with NPS use and harms, in selected intervention settings across Europe. RESULTS: Findings revealed that in the absence of specific evidence, health professionals across most intervention settings rely primarily on acquired expertise with traditional drugs when addressing NPS-related harms. This study also identified a gap in the availability and access to timely and reliable information on NPS to users and health professionals. Health professionals in sexual health settings and custodial settings in contact with certain risk groups reported particular challenges in responding to NPS-related harms. CONCLUSION: Immediate investments are required in expanding substance identification capabilities, competence building among professionals and dissemination of risk information among relevant stakeholders. The risks of neglecting under-served risk populations and failure to address the information needs of health professionals and users on NPS harms in a context of rapid changing drug markets in Europe may have unforeseeable consequences at societal level.

The drug situation in Europe: an overview of data available on illicit drugs and new psychoactive substances from European monitoring in 2015.

AIM: A central task for the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) is to produce an annual report of the latest data available on drug demand and drug supply in Europe. This paper is intended to facilitate a better understanding of, and easier access to, the main quantitative European level data sets available in 2015. METHODS: The European reporting system formally covers all 28 European Union (EU) Member States, Norway and Turkey and incorporates multiple indicators alongside an early warning system (EWS) on uncontrolled new psychoactive substances (NPS). While epidemiological information is based largely on registries, surveys and other routine data reported annually, the EWS collects case-based data on an ongoing basis. The 2015 reporting exercise is centred primarily on a set of standardized reporting tools. RESULTS: The most recent data provided by European countries are presented, including data on drug use, drug-related morbidity and mortality, treatment demand, drug markets and new psychoactive substances, with data tables provided and methodological information. A number of key results are highlighted for illustrative purposes. Drug prevalence estimates from national surveys since 2012 (last year prevalence of use among the 15-34 age band) range from 0.4% in Turkey to 22.1% in France for cannabis, from 0.2% in Greece and Romania to 4.2% in the United Kingdom for cocaine, from 0.1% in Italy and Turkey to 3% in the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom for ecstasy, and from 0.1% or less in Romania, Italy and Portugal to 2.5% in Estonia for amphetamine. Declining trends in new HIV detections among people who inject drugs are illustrated, in addition to presentation of a breakdown of NPS reported to the EU early warning system, which have risen exponentially from fewer than 20 a year between 2005 and 2008, to 101 reported in 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Structured information is now available on patterns and trends in drug consumption in Europe, which permits triangulation of data from different sources and consideration of methodological limitations. Opioid drugs continue to place a burden on the drug treatment system, although both new heroin entrants and injecting show declines. More than 450 new psychoactive substances are now monitored by the European early warning system with 31 new synthetic cathinones and 30 new synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists notified in 2014.

Fentanyls: Are we missing the signs? Highly potent and on the rise in Europe.

Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid analgesic historically used as a pain reliever and an anaesthetic. Recent concerns have arisen around the illicit use of fentanyl and its analogues in a number of European countries, linked to their high potency and associated risk of fatal overdose. Evidence has been emerging from Estonia for over a decade of entrenched patterns of fentanyl use, including injection of the drug and hundreds of overdose deaths. More recently, reports indicate that both fentanyl and 3-methylfentanyl (TMF) have been marketed as a replacement for heroin in European countries (e.g. Bulgaria, Slovakia) affected by heroin shortages. In addition, Germany, Finland and the United Kingdom, reported new outbreaks of fentanyl-related deaths. This combination of increasing mortality data alongside law enforcement intelligence suggesting both diversion and illicit production of fentanyls, prompted wider investigation using a targeted multi-source data collection exercise and analysis. This identified that in the European context, fentanyls are 'low use but high risk/harm' substances. Evidence shows that Estonia stands out as having an endemic problem, while the use of fentanyls in other European countries appears to be geographically localised. Developments in illicit supply of fentanyls reflect the complexity of Europe's contemporary drug market: manifesting illicit production and use, the diversion and misuse of medicines, and the online sale of non-controlled new psychoactive substances. Likewise effective and integrated responses will need to address fentanyl production, diversion as well as ensuring the availability of harm reduction measures to users.

Reducing drug related mortality in Europe - a seemingly intractable public health issue.

Drawing on an analysis of data from over 30 cohort studies, it can be estimated that between 10.000 and 20.000 opioid users die each year in Europe. Typically, annual mortality rates are between 10-20/1000, representing an excess mortality 10 to 20 times greater than expected. Most deaths occur among males in their mid-thirties. Four broad categories of cause of death can be identified: overdoses, diseases, suicide and trauma. While the long term trend in HIV related mortality among drug users is downwards, other causes of mortality have shown little sign of decreasing in recent years. Of particular concern are overdoses which account for 6300 to 8400 deaths reported annually. The fact that deaths have not decreased is surprising given the scaling up of treatment and other services. Opioid substitution treatment in particular is known to be protective and the numbers of those in substitution treatment in Europe has increased dramatically. A number of interrelated factors may help explain this intractable problem. These include: the possibility of an aging cohort becoming more vulnerable; the use of alcohol and other drugs; high levels of ill-health, risk behaviour, and co-morbidity; and social exclusion and marginalisation. Reducing overall morbidity among heroin users remains a key issue for Europe's public health services. More efforts are required to better understand and target both the direct and indirect factors associated with mortality among problem drugs users, if this major health cost associated with drug consumption is to be reduced.

Addiction research centres and the nurturing of creativity. Monitoring the European drug situation: the ongoing challenge for the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA).

The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) is the designated hub for drug-related information in the European Union. The organization's role is to provide the European Union (EU) and its Member States with a factual overview of European drug problems and a common information framework to support the drugs debate. In order to achieve its mission, the EMCDDA coordinates and relies on a network of 30 national monitoring centres, the Reitox National Focal Points. The Centre publishes on a wide range of drug-related topics, across epidemiology, interventions, laws and policies. Every November, the EMCDDA publishes its Annual Report, providing a yearly update on the European drug situation, translated into 23 EU languages. In line with its founding regulation, the EMCDDA has a role acting as an interface between the worlds of science and policy. While not a research centre in the formal sense, the results the Centre generates serve as catalysts for new research questions and help to identify priorities. Current challenges facing the agency include continuing to increase scientific standards while maintaining a strong institutional role, as well as supporting European efforts to identify, share and codify best practice in the drugs field.

Challenges of reliability and validity in the identification and monitoring of emerging drug trends.

There is increasing pressure on drug monitoring systems to achieve earlier detection and greater precision in reporting of emerging drug use trends. Such systems typically operate in settings where government interest and the drug use trends themselves can be fluid. To achieve the goal of informing timely policy and practice responses in this environment, drug use monitoring systems must be flexible and responsive, as well as reliable and valid. This paper explores three interrelated areas relevant to trend monitoring that can benefit from a clearer focus in terms of increasing validity and reliability: the research paradigm to which systems adhere; the selection of sources or drug use indicators utilized by systems; and the process of analysis used by systems to ensure valid results. The reliability and validity of currently utilized drug use related indicators is discussed, with a focus on the validity of data sources as measures of emerging drug use trends. The relevance and utility of current descriptives such as "lagged" and "leading edge" indicators are assessed. Five dimensions, against which the validity of drug use indicators may be assessed in a trend-monitoring context are proposed as an alternative. Faced with a lack of clear conceptual frameworks underpinning and driving monitoring systems, it is argued that a pragmatic research paradigm can be adopted as a basis for guiding selection of indicators and helping to make explicit the concurrent or supplementary triangulation and analysis procedures on which valid results are necessarily founded. The current trend of using triangulation as the primary means of ensuring the validity of systems is critically reviewed and a challenge is issued to the field to make the analysis process more overt. No external funding was received for this article.