Trends in retail sales of insecticide-treated nets and untreated nets in Tanzania: cross-section surveys.

BACKGROUND: The commercial sector plays a vital role in mosquito net ownership and access in Tanzania. The National Malaria Strategic Plan (NMSP) includes long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) delivery through the commercial sector as a complementary mechanism. The NMSP aims to increase LLIN sales while decreasing untreated mosquito net sales. This survey aimed to track quantities, market share of different net categories, prices, and origins of mosquito nets in retail markets and to engage stakeholders to analyse market trends. METHODS: This mixed-method mosquito net retail outlet survey was conducted in mid-2021 in six and in mid-2022 in eight regions. Field teams identified net-selling outlets in major urban and peri-urban markets and used snowball sampling to identify additional outlets. A structured questionnaire was used, and photos of available mosquito net products were taken. Key informant interviews were conducted with wholesalers and retailers. The relative market share of a product was calculated by using the mean of each sales category as frequency weights. Qualitative data analysis was undertaken by summarizing common themes and observations based on the research question. RESULTS: A total of 394 and 1139 outlets were surveyed in 2021 and 2022, respectively. More than 96% of distributed brands in both years were untreated nets. The market share for untreated mosquito nets was 99.2% in 2021 and 88.3% in 2022. Bed net sales were seasonal, peaking in the rainy season and at the start of the school year. Leaked LLINs from the public sector comprised 0.3% of the market share in 2021 and 8.3% in 2022. Kigoma markets had the most significant frequency of leaked LLIN products. Legitimate LLINs were rare in 2021 (n = 2) and not found in 2022, despite the presence of a local LLIN manufacturer. A small number (n = 3) of untreated nets fabricated in China claiming to be LLINs were observed in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Despite NMCP's strategic approach to increasing retail market share for legitimate LLINs, significant challenges remain. Efforts are needed to change the current situation given the context of large-scale public sector distributions of LLINs, the higher consumer cost of LLINs, the lack of bed net varieties. Improvement of registration process is recommended.

Estimating population ITN access at council level in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Since 2013, the National Malaria Control Programme in mainland Tanzania and the Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme have implemented mass insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution campaigns, routine ITN distribution to pregnant women and infants, and continuous distribution through primary schools (mainland) and community leaders (Zanzibar) to further malaria control efforts. Mass campaigns are triggered when ITN access falls below 40%. In this context, there is a need to monitor ITN access annually to assess whether it is below threshold and inform quantification of ITNs for the following year. Annual estimates of access are needed at the council level to inform programmatic decision-making. METHODS: An age-structured stock and flow model was used to predict annual net crops from council-level distribution data in Tanzania from 2012 to 2020 parameterized with a Tanzania-specific net median lifespan of 2.15 years. Annual nets-per-capita (NPC) was calculated by dividing each annual net crop by mid-year council projected population. A previously fit nonparametric conditional quantile function for the proportion of the population with access to an ITN (ITN access) as a function of NPC was used to predict ITN access at the council level based on the predicted NPC value. These estimates were compared to regional-level ITN access from large household surveys. RESULTS: For regions with the same ITN strategy for all councils, predicted council-level ITN access was consistent with regional-level survey data for 79% of councils. Regions where ITN strategy varied by council had regional estimates of ITN access that diverged from the council-specific estimates. Predicted ITN access reached 60% only when "nets issued as a percentage of the council population" (NPP) exceeded 15%, and approached 80% ITN access when NPP was at or above 20%. CONCLUSION: Modelling ITN access with country-specific net decay rates, council-level population, and ITN distribution data is a promising approach to monitor ITN coverage sub-regionally and between household surveys in Tanzania and beyond.

Annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets to schoolchildren and other key populations to maintain higher ITN access than with mass campaigns: a modelling study for mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Since 2013, the National Malaria Control Programme in mainland Tanzania has deployed annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) through primary schools to maintain ITN access and use. This School Net Programme (SNP) is slated to be used throughout mainland Tanzania by 2023. This modelling study projects ITN access under different ITN distribution strategies and quantification approaches. METHODS: A stock and flow model with a Tanzania-specific ITN decay rate was used to calculate annual net crops for four different ITN distribution strategies, varying quantification approaches within each strategy. Annual nets-per-capita (NPC) was derived from net crop and a standardized population projection. Nonparametric conditional quartile functions for the proportion of the population with access to an ITN (ITN access) as a function of NPC were used to predict ITN access and its variability. The number of ITNs required under the varying quantification approaches for the period 2022-2030 was calculated. RESULTS: Annual SNP quantified using a "population times 15%" approach maintained ITN access between 80 and 90%, when combined with reproductive and child health (RCH) ITN distribution, requiring 133.2 million ITNs. The same strategy quantified with "population times 22%" maintained ITN access at or above 90%, requiring 175.5 million ITNs. Under 5-year mass campaigns with RCH distribution for pregnant women and infants, ITN access reached 90% post-campaign and fell to 27-35% in the 4th year post-campaign, requiring 120.5 million ITNs over 8 years. 3-yearly mass campaigns with RCH reached 100% ITN access post-campaign and fell to 70% in the 3rd year post-campaign, requiring 154.4 million ITNs. CONCLUSION: Given an ITN retention time in Tanzania of 2.15 years, the model predicts that mass campaigns conducted every 3 years in mainland Tanzania will not maintain ITN access at target levels of 80%, even with strong RCH channels. Mainland Tanzania can however expect to maintain ITN access at 80% or above by quantifying SNP using "population × 15%", in addition to RCH ITN delivery. This strategy requires 14% fewer ITNs than a 3-year campaign strategy while providing more consistent ITN coverage. Meeting the targets of 80% ITN use would require maintaining 90% ITN access, achievable using a "population times 22%" quantification approach for SNP.