Using Panel Community Surveys to Track the Impact of Crop Pests Over Time and Space - The Case of Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) Disease in Kenya from 2013 to 2018.

Maize lethal necrosis (MLN) disease appeared in Kenya in 2011, causing major damage. In a first survey of 121 communities in 2013, participants estimated the proportion of households affected and the yield loss in affected areas; from this survey, the overall loss was estimated at 22%, concentrated in western Kenya (94%). Efforts to combat the disease included planting resistant varieties, creating awareness of MLN management, and producing pathogen-free seed. In 2018, the same communities were revisited and asked the same questions, establishing a panel community survey. The results showed that incidents of MLN had greatly decreased, and the number of communities that had observed it had reduced from 76% in 2013 to 26% by the long rains of 2018; while still common in western Kenya (60%), MLN had greatly reduced elsewhere (to 10%). In 2013, 40% of farmers were affected, yield loss among affected farmers was estimated at 44%, and total yield loss was estimated at 22% (a production loss of 0.5 million metric tons/year), valued at US$187 million. By the long rains of 2018, 23% of farmers were affected, with a loss among affected farmers of 36%; overall annual loss was estimated at 8.5% or 0.37 million metric tons, valued at US$109 million, concentrated in western Kenya (79%). Of the recommended control measures, only the removal of diseased plants was commonly used (by 62% of affected communities), but not the use of agronomic practices (11%) or resistant varieties (9.5%). The reasons for the reduction in MLN are not well understood; external factors such as spraying insecticide against fall armyworm and unfavorable weather likely played a role, as did using disease-free seed, but not the use of resistant varieties or appropriate management practices. Still, as the pathogen remains in the fields, it is important to keep disseminating these control methods, particularly resistant varieties.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

Welfare impacts of improved chickpea adoption: A pathway for rural development in Ethiopia?

We analyse the impact of improved chickpea adoption on welfare in Ethiopia using three rounds of panel data. First, we estimate the determinants of improved chickpea adoption using a double hurdle model. We apply a control function approach with correlated random effects to control for possible endogeneity resulting from access to improved seed and technology transfer activities. To instrument for these variables we develop novel distance weighted measures of a household's neighbours' access to improved seed and technology transfer activities. Second, we estimate the impact of area under improved chickpea cultivation on household income and poverty. We apply a fixed effects instrumental variables approach where we use the predicted area under cultivation from the double hurdle model as an instrument for observed area under cultivation. We find that improved chickpea adoption significantly increases household income while also reducing household poverty. Finally, we disaggregate results by landholding to explore whether the impact of adoption has heterogeneous effects. Adoption favoured all but the largest landholders, for who the new technology did not have a significant impact on income. Overall, increasing access to improved chickpea appears a promising pathway for rural development in Ethiopia's chickpea growing regions.