Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between smoking, depression and inflammation.

Smoking, inflammation and depression commonly co-occur and may be mechanistically linked. However, key questions remain around the direction of association and the influence of residual confounding. We aimed to characterize the association between lifetime smoking and depression, as well as to assess the role that genetically-predicted C-reactive protein (CRP) level, (an archetypal generalized inflammatory marker) and/or IL-6 activity, as a potential explanation for this association. We performed inverse variance weighted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using recently published summary-level GWAS data for lifetime smoking index, CRP levels, and depression. A subset of inflammatory-related genetic variants from the lifetime smoking GWAS were also used to assess the potential inflammatory causal pathways between smoking and depression. The analysis indicated reciprocal relationships of lifetime smoking with depression (ORSmk-Dep = 2.01, 95% CI 1.71-2.37, p < 0.001; ORDep-Smk = 1.09, 95% CI 1.06-1.13, p < 0.001), CRP levels and IL-6 activity (ORSmk-CRP = 1.40, 95% CI 1.21-1.55, p < 0.001; ORCRP-Smk = 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, p < 0.001, ORIL-6/CRP-Smk = 1.06 (1.03-1.09), p < 0.001). These associations were also supported by the majority of the robust MR methods performed. We did not find evidence for a reciprocal relationship between CRP levels (using > 500 genetic instruments for CRP) and depression (ORCRP-Dep = 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04; ORDep-CRP = 1.03, 95% CI 0.99-1.07). We observed little variation in the IVW estimates between smoking and depression when we limited the genetic variants assessed to those related to measures of generalized inflammation, but we found evidence for an attenuation of the smoking-depression association in multivariable mendelian randomization when adjusting for IL-6 activity, suggesting that the IL-6 pathway may be at least in part responsible for the association of smoking and depression. Our study supports potential bidirectional causal associations between lifetime smoking and depression which may be at least in part explained by the IL-6 signalling pathway. The IL-6 pathway may represent a putative therapeutic target for smoking and to mitigate the effects of smoking on depression.

Precision weighting of cortical unsigned prediction error signals benefits learning, is mediated by dopamine, and is impaired in psychosis.

Recent theories of cortical function construe the brain as performing hierarchical Bayesian inference. According to these theories, the precision of prediction errors plays a key role in learning and decision-making, is controlled by dopamine and contributes to the pathogenesis of psychosis. To test these hypotheses, we studied learning with variable outcome-precision in healthy individuals after dopaminergic modulation with a placebo, a dopamine receptor agonist bromocriptine or a dopamine receptor antagonist sulpiride (dopamine study n = 59) and in patients with early psychosis (psychosis study n = 74: 20 participants with first-episode psychosis, 30 healthy controls and 24 participants with at-risk mental state attenuated psychotic symptoms). Behavioural computational modelling indicated that precision weighting of prediction errors benefits learning in health and is impaired in psychosis. FMRI revealed coding of unsigned prediction errors, which signal surprise, relative to their precision in superior frontal cortex (replicated across studies, combined n = 133), which was perturbed by dopaminergic modulation, impaired in psychosis and associated with task performance and schizotypy (schizotypy correlation in 86 healthy volunteers). In contrast to our previous work, we did not observe significant precision-weighting of signed prediction errors, which signal valence, in the midbrain and ventral striatum in the healthy controls (or patients) in the psychosis study. We conclude that healthy people, but not patients with first-episode psychosis, take into account the precision of the environment when updating beliefs. Precision weighting of cortical prediction error signals is a key mechanism through which dopamine modulates inference and contributes to the pathogenesis of psychosis.

Altered subcortical emotional salience processing differentiates Parkinson's patients with and without psychotic symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: Current research does not provide a clear explanation for why some patients with Parkinson's Disease (PD) develop psychotic symptoms. The 'aberrant salience hypothesis' of psychosis has been influential and proposes that dopaminergic dysregulation leads to inappropriate attribution of salience to irrelevant/non-informative stimuli, facilitating the formation of hallucinations and delusions. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-motivational salience is altered in PD patients and possibly linked to the development of psychotic symptoms. METHODS: We investigated salience processing in 14 PD patients with psychotic symptoms, 23 PD patients without psychotic symptoms and 19 healthy controls. All patients were on dopaminergic medication for their PD. We examined emotional salience using a visual oddball fMRI paradigm that has been used to investigate early stages of schizophrenia spectrum psychosis, controlling for resting cerebral blood flow as assessed with arterial spin labelling fMRI. RESULTS: We found significant differences between patient groups in brain responses to emotional salience. PD patients with psychotic symptoms had enhanced brain responses in the striatum, dopaminergic midbrain, hippocampus and amygdala compared to patients without psychotic symptoms. PD patients with psychotic symptoms showed significant correlations between the levels of dopaminergic drugs they were taking and BOLD signalling, as well as psychotic symptom scores. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that enhanced signalling in the striatum, dopaminergic midbrain, the hippocampus and amygdala is associated with the development of psychotic symptoms in PD, in line with that proposed in the 'aberrant salience hypothesis' of psychosis in schizophrenia.

Smokin' hot: adolescent smoking and the risk of psychosis.

OBJECTIVE: Daily smoking has been associated with a greater risk of psychosis. However, we are still lacking studies to adjust for baseline psychotic experiences and other substance use. We examined associations between daily smoking and psychosis risk in a 15-year follow-up while accounting for these covariates in a prospective sample (N = 6081) from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986. METHODS: Self-report questionnaires on psychotic experiences (PROD-screen), tobacco smoking and other substance use were completed when the cohort members were 15-16 years old. Tobacco smoking was categorized into three groups (non-smokers, 1-9 cigarettes and ≥10 cigarettes/day). Psychosis diagnoses were obtained from national registers until the age of 30 years. RESULTS: Subjects in heaviest smoking category were at increased risk of subsequent psychosis (unadjusted HR = 3.15; 95% CI 1.94-5.13). When adjusted for baseline psychotic experiences the association persisted (HR = 2.87; 1.76-4.68) and remained significant even after adjustments for multiple known risk factors such as cannabis use, frequent alcohol use, other illicit substance use, parental substance abuse, and psychosis. Furthermore, number of smoked cigarettes increased psychosis risk in a dose-response manner (adjusted OR = 1.05; 1.01-1.08). CONCLUSION: Heavy tobacco smoking in adolescence was associated with a greater risk for psychosis even after adjustment for confounders.

Lifetime use of psychiatric medications and cognition at 43years of age in schizophrenia in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966.

BACKGROUND: Higher lifetime antipsychotic exposure has been associated with poorer cognition in schizophrenia. The cognitive effects of adjunctive psychiatric medications and lifetime trends of antipsychotic use remain largely unclear. We aimed to study how lifetime and current benzodiazepine and antidepressant medications, lifetime trends of antipsychotic use and antipsychotic polypharmacy are associated with cognitive performance in midlife schizophrenia. METHODS: Sixty participants with DSM-IV schizophrenia from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 were examined at 43years of age with an extensive cognitive test battery. Cumulative lifetime and current use of psychiatric medications were collected from medical records and interviews. The associations between medication and principal component analysis-based cognitive composite score were analysed using linear regression. RESULTS: Lifetime cumulative DDD years of benzodiazepine and antidepressant medications were not significantly associated with global cognition. Being without antipsychotic medication (for minimum 11months) before the cognitive examination was associated with better cognitive performance (P=0.007) and higher lifetime cumulative DDD years of antipsychotics with poorer cognition (P=0.020), when adjusted for gender, onset age and lifetime hospital treatment days. Other lifetime trends of antipsychotic use, such as a long antipsychotic-free period earlier in the treatment history, and antipsychotic polypharmacy, were not significantly associated with cognition. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these naturalistic data, low exposure to adjunctive benzodiazepine and antidepressant medications does not seem to affect cognition nor explain the possible negative effects of high dose long-term antipsychotic medication on cognition in schizophrenia.

Brain structural changes in women and men during midlife.

Brain development during childhood and adolescence differs between boys and girls. Structural changes continue during adulthood and old age, particularly in terms of brain volume reductions that accelerate beyond age 35 years. We investigated whether brain structural change in mid-life differs between men and women. 43 men and 28 women from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort underwent MRI brain scans at age 33-35 (SD=0.67) and then again at age 42-44 (SD=0.41). We examined sex differences in total percentage brain volume change (PBVC) and regional brain change with FSL SIENA software. Women showed significant PBVC reduction compared with men between the ages of 33-35 and 42-44 years (Mean=-3.21% in men, Mean=-4.03% in women, F (1, 68)=6.37, p<0.05). In regional analyses, women exhibited greater brain reduction than men in widespread areas. After controlling for total percent brain volume change, men show greater relative regional brain reduction than women in bilateral precentral gyri, bilateral paracingulate gyri, and bilateral supplementary motor cortices. The results indicate sex differences in brain changes in mid-life. Women have more total brain reduction, and more reduction on the outer brain surface than men, whereas men exhibit more brain reduction on the mid-line surface than women after co-varying for total brain volume loss. These changes could contribute to sex differences in midlife behaviour and health.

Interaction between parental psychosis and early motor development and the risk of schizophrenia in a general population birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Delayed motor development in infancy and family history of psychosis are both associated with increased risk of schizophrenia, but their interaction is largely unstudied. AIM: To investigate the association of the age of achieving motor milestones and parental psychosis and their interaction in respect to risk of schizophrenia. METHODS: We used data from the general population-based prospective Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (n=10,283). Developmental information of the cohort members was gathered during regular visits to Finnish child welfare clinics. Several registers were used to determine the diagnosis of schizophrenia among the cohort members and psychosis among the parents. Altogether 152 (1.5%) individuals had schizophrenia by the age of 46 years, with 23 (15.1%) of them having a parent with psychosis. Cox regression analysis was used in analyses. RESULTS: Parental psychosis was associated (P<0.05) with later achievement of holding the head up, grabbing an object, and walking without support. In the parental psychosis group, the risk for schizophrenia was increased if holding the head up (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.46; degrees of freedom [df]=1; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.07-5.66) and touching the thumb with the index finger (HR: 1.84; df=1; 95% CI: 1.11-3.06) was later. In the group without parental psychosis, a delay in the following milestones increased the risk of schizophrenia: standing without support and walking without support. Parental psychosis had an interaction with delayed touching thumb with index finger (HR: 1.87; df=1; 95% CI: 1.08-3.25) when risk of schizophrenia was investigated. CONCLUSIONS: Parental psychosis was associated with achieving motor milestones later in infancy, particularly the milestones that appear early in a child's life. Parental psychosis and touching the thumb with the index finger had a significant interaction on risk of schizophrenia. Genetic risk for psychosis may interact with delayed development to raise future risk of schizophrenia, or delayed development may be a marker of other risk processes that interact with genetic liability to cause later schizophrenia.

Behavioural and molecular endophenotypes in psychotic disorders reveal heritable abnormalities in glutamatergic neurotransmission.

Psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia are biologically complex and carry huge population morbidity due to their prevalence, persistence and associated disability. Defined by features such as delusions and hallucinations, they involve cognitive dysfunction and neurotransmitter dysregulations that appear mostly to involve the dopaminergic and glutamatergic systems. A number of genetic and environmental factors are associated with these disorders but it has been difficult to identify the biological pathways underlying the principal symptoms. The endophenotype concept of stable, heritable traits that form a mechanistic link between genes and an overt expression of the disorder has potential to reduce the complexity of psychiatric phenotypes. In this study, we used a genetically sensitive design with individuals with a first episode of psychosis, their non-affected first-degree relatives and non-related healthy controls. Metabolomic analysis was combined with neurocognitive assessment to identify multilevel endophenotypic patterns: one concerned reaction times during the performance of cognitive and emotional tests that have previously been associated with the glutamate neurotransmission system, the other involved metabolites involved directly and indirectly in the co-activation of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor, a major receptor of the glutamate system. These cognitive and metabolic endophenotypes may comprise a single construct, such that genetically mediated dysfunction in the glutamate system may be responsible for delays in response to cognitive and emotional functions in psychotic disorders. This focus on glutamatergic neurotransmission should guide drug discovery and experimental medicine programmes in schizophrenia and related disorders.

Neurocognition as a predictor of outcome in schizophrenia in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966.

The purpose of this study was to study neurocognitive performance as a predictor of outcomes in midlife schizophrenia. There is a lack of studies with unselected samples and a long follow-up. The study is based on the prospective, unselected population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966. The study includes 43 individuals with schizophrenia and 73 controls, whose neurocognitive performance was assessed twice, at 34 and 43 years. At both time points we used identical neurocognitive tests to assess verbal and visual memory and executive functions. Our main aim was to analyse neurocognitive performance at 34 years as a predictor of clinical, vocational and global outcomes at 43 years. Additionally, the analysis addressed cross-sectional associations between cognitive performance and clinical, vocational and global measures at 43 years. The assessment of outcomes was performed in the schizophrenia group only. In the longitudinal analysis poorer visual memory predicted poorer vocational outcome and poorer long-term verbal memory predicted poorer global outcome. In the cross-sectional analysis poorer visual memory and lower composite score of neurocognition were associated with poorer global outcome. No individual neurocognitive test or the composite score of these predicted remission. These data indicate that neurocognition, especially memory function, is an important determinant of long-term functional outcome in midlife schizophrenia.

Difficulty in making contact with others and social withdrawal as early signs of psychosis in adolescents--the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986.

AIM: Social withdrawal is among the first signs of the prodromal state of psychosis seen in clinical samples. The aim of this prospective study was to find out whether difficulty in making contact with others and social withdrawal precede first episode psychosis in the young general population. METHODS: The members of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n=6274) completed the PROD-screen questionnaire in 2001-2002. The Finnish Hospital Discharge Register was used to detect both new psychotic and non-psychotic disorders requiring hospitalisation during 2003-2008. RESULTS: Twenty-three subjects developed psychosis and 89 developed a non-psychotic mental disorder requiring hospitalisation during the follow-up. Of those who developed psychosis, 35% had reported difficulty or uncertainty in making contact with others and 30% social withdrawal in adolescence. In hospitalised non-psychotic disorder, the corresponding precentages were 10 and 13% and in the control group without hospital-treated mental disorder 9 and 11%. The differences between psychotic and non-psychotic hospitalised subjects (P<0.01) as well as controls (P<0.001) were statistically significant regarding difficulty or uncertainty in making contact with others. CONCLUSIONS: In this general population-based sample self-reported difficulty or uncertainty in making contact with others in adolescence preceded psychosis specifically compared to hospitalised non-psychotic mental disorders and controls.

Longitudinal associations between childhood and adulthood externalizing and internalizing psychopathology and adolescent substance use.

BACKGROUND: Emotional and behavioral problems are commonly associated with substance use in adolescence but it is unclear whether substance use precedes or follows mental health problems. The aim was to investigate longitudinal associations between externalizing and internalizing psychopathology and substance use in a prospective population study design. METHOD: The sample was the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 Study (NFBC 1986; n = 6349; 3103 males). Externalizing and internalizing mental health problems were assessed at age 8 years (Rutter scales), substance use and externalizing and internalizing problems [Youth Self-Report (YSR)] at age 15-16 years, and hospital diagnoses for internalizing disorders (age 25) and criminal offences (age 20) from nationwide registers in adulthood. RESULTS: Externalizing problems at age 8 were associated with later substance use. After adjustment for sociodemographic factors, parental alcohol use and psychiatric disorders, and earlier externalizing and internalizing problems, substance use predicted criminality, especially among males, with the highest odds ratio (OR) for cannabis use [adjusted OR 6.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-12.7]. Early internalizing problems were not a risk for later substance use. Female adolescent cannabis (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.4-7.3) and alcohol (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-4.2) use predicted internalizing disorders in adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Externalizing problems precede adolescent substance use in both genders, whereas, among boys, substance use also precedes criminal offences. Internalizing problems may follow substance use in females. These associations were robust even when taking into account previous mental health problems.

Associations between brain morphology and outcome in schizophrenia in a general population sample.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse associations between brain morphology and longitudinal and cross-sectional measures of outcomes in schizophrenia in a general population sample. METHODS: The sample was the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort. In 1999-2001, structural brain MRI and measures of clinical and functional outcomes were analysed for 54 individuals with schizophrenia around the age of 34. Sex, total grey matter, duration of illness and the use of antipsychotic medication were used as covariates. RESULTS: After controlling for multiple covariates, increased density of the left limbic area was associated with less hospitalisations and increased total white matter volume with being in remission. Higher density of left frontal grey matter was associated with not being on a disability pension and higher density of the left frontal lobe and left limbic area were related to better functioning. Higher density of the left limbic area was associated with better longitudinal course of illness. CONCLUSIONS: This study, based on unselected general population data, long follow-up and an extensive database, confirms findings of previous studies, that morphological abnormalities in several brain structures are associated with outcome. The difference in brain morphology in patients with good and poor outcomes may reflect separable aetiologies and developmental trajectories in schizophrenia.

Response initiation in young adults at risk for psychosis in the Northern Finland 1986 Birth Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: This is one of the very few studies to investigate the specific executive function/processing speed component of response initiation in subjects at familial risk (FR) for psychosis, and the first such study in subjects at clinical risk (CR) for psychosis. METHODS: Participants (N = 177) were members of the general population-based Northern Finland 1986 Birth Cohort in the following four groups: FR for psychosis (n = 62), CR for psychosis (n = 21), psychosis (n = 25) and control subjects (n = 69). The response initiation of these groups was compared in three different tests: Semantic fluency, Stockings of Cambridge and Spatial working memory. RESULTS: The two risk groups did not differ significantly from control group, but differed from, and outperformed the psychosis group in semantic fluency response initiation. CONCLUSIONS: Response initiation deficits were not evident in a non-help seeking psychosis high-risk sample.

Administrative incidence of psychosis assessed in an early intervention service in England: first epidemiological evidence from a diverse, rural and urban setting.

BACKGROUND: Early Intervention in Psychosis Services (EIS) for young people in England experiencing first-episode psychosis (FEP) were commissioned in 2002, based on an expected incidence of 15 cases per 100 000 person-years, as reported by schizophrenia epidemiology in highly urban settings. Unconfirmed reports from EIS thereafter have suggested higher than anticipated rates. The aim of this study was to compare the observed with the expected incidence and delineate the clinical epidemiology of FEP using epidemiologically complete data from the CAMEO EIS, over a 6-year period in Cambridgeshire, for a mixed rural-urban population. METHOD: A population-based study of FEP (ICD-10, F10-39) in people aged 17-35 years referred between 2002 and 2007; the denominator was estimated from mid-year census statistics. Sociodemographic variation was explored by Poisson regression. Crude and directly standardized rates (for age, sex and ethnicity) were compared with pre-EIS rates from two major epidemiological FEP studies conducted in urban English settings. RESULTS: A total of 285 cases met FEP diagnoses in CAMEO, yielding a crude incidence of 50 per 100 000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 44.5-56.2]. Age- and sex-adjusted rates were raised for people from black ethnic groups compared with the white British [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-3.8]. Rates in our EIS were comparable with pre-EIS rates observed in more urban areas after age, sex and ethnicity standardization. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the incidence observed in EIS is far higher than originally anticipated and is comparable to rates observed in more urban settings prior to the advent of EIS. Sociodemographic variation due to ethnicity and other factors extend beyond urban populations. Our results have implications for psychosis aetiology and service planning.

The emerging biology of delusions.

This article examines a model of how delusions may arise, not just in schizophrenia but also in a number of neurological and psychiatric conditions, through a combination of dysregulated dopamine release from ascending midbrain pathways and reasoning bias. Negative symptoms may also be related to dopamine dysregulation, with the precise mixture of positive and negative symptoms depending on the relative degree of dopamine dysregulation in particular mesocorticolimbic circuits. Evidence for this model is examined, and predictions arising from this model are described.

The influence of temperament on symptoms and functional outcome in people with psychosis in the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To describe symptom expression and functional outcome in psychotic disorders in relation with temperament traits assessed with the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) in a population-based sample. METHOD: As part of the 31-year follow-up survey of the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort, TCI temperament items were filled in by 4349 members of the cohort. In individuals with psychotic disorders, also positive and negative symptoms and outcome variables were assessed in a 35-year follow-up. Information of TCI and outcomes were available for altogether 41 individuals with psychosis. RESULT: Reward dependence (RD) (rho=-0.45) and Persistence (P) (rho=-0.52) were significantly correlated with Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) negative symptoms. Higher P scores predicted higher social and occupational functioning (as measured by Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale [SOFAS]), and higher Harm avoidance (HA) predicted a higher likelihood of being on a disability pension. CONCLUSION: Results indicate that understanding of personality dimensions support better understanding of outcome and symptom expressions in psychotic disorders.

Reinforcement and reversal learning in first-episode psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Abnormalities in reinforcement learning and reversal learning have been reported in psychosis, possibly secondary to subcortical dopamine abnormalities. METHODS: We studied simple discrimination (SD) learning and reversal learning in a sample of 119 first-episode psychosis patients from the Cambridge early psychosis service (CAMEO) and 107 control participants. We used data on reinforcement learning and reversal learning extracted from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery Intradimensional-Extradimensional shift task, which measures cognitive flexibility but also involves simple reinforcement learning (SD learning) and reversal learning stages. We also gathered diagnostic information to examine whether there were any differences between patients ultimately diagnosed with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders and those diagnosed with affective psychosis. RESULTS: Psychosis patients demonstrated deficits in simple reinforcement learning (SD learning) and in reversal learning, with no differences between affective psychosis and schizophrenia-spectrum psychosis. There was a significant modest correlation between reversal errors and negative symptoms (Spearman rho = 0.3, P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: There are reinforcement learning abnormalities in first-episode psychosis, which correlate with negative symptoms, suggesting a possible role for orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatal pathology in the pathogenesis of motivational deficits in psychosis.

Substantia nigra/ventral tegmental reward prediction error disruption in psychosis.

While dopamine systems have been implicated in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and psychosis for many years, how dopamine dysfunction generates psychotic symptoms remains unknown. Recent theoretical interest has been directed at relating the known role of midbrain dopamine neurons in reinforcement learning, motivational salience and prediction error to explain the abnormal mental experience of psychosis. However, this theoretical model has yet to be explored empirically. To examine a link between psychotic experience, reward learning and dysfunction of the dopaminergic midbrain and associated target regions, we asked a group of first episode psychosis patients suffering from active positive symptoms and a group of healthy control participants to perform an instrumental reward conditioning experiment. We characterized neural responses using functional magnetic resonance imaging. We observed that patients with psychosis exhibit abnormal physiological responses associated with reward prediction error in the dopaminergic midbrain, striatum and limbic system, and we demonstrated subtle abnormalities in the ability of psychosis patients to discriminate between motivationally salient and neutral stimuli. This study provides the first evidence linking abnormal mesolimbic activity, reward learning and psychosis.

Disrupted prediction-error signal in psychosis: evidence for an associative account of delusions.

Delusions are maladaptive beliefs about the world. Based upon experimental evidence that prediction error-a mismatch between expectancy and outcome--drives belief formation, this study examined the possibility that delusions form because of disrupted prediction--error processing. We used fMRI to determine prediction-error-related brain responses in 12 healthy subjects and 12 individuals (7 males) with delusional beliefs. Frontal cortex responses in the patient group were suggestive of disrupted prediction-error processing. Furthermore, across subjects, the extent of disruption was significantly related to an individual's propensity to delusion formation. Our results support a neurobiological theory of delusion formation that implicates aberrant prediction-error signalling, disrupted attentional allocation and associative learning in the formation of delusional beliefs.