Integration of genomic and pharmacokinetic data to predict clinical outcomes in HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis.

Cryptococcal meningitis causes an estimated 112,000 global deaths per annum. Genomic and phenotypic features of the infecting strain of Cryptococcus spp. have been associated with outcomes from cryptococcal meningitis. Additionally, population-level pharmacokinetic variability is well documented in these patient cohorts. The relative contribution of these factors to clinical outcomes is unknown. Based in Malawi, we conducted a sub-study of the phase 3 Ambition-CM trial (ISRCTN72509687), collecting plasma and cerebrospinal fluid at serial time points during the first 14 days of antifungal therapy. We explored the relative contribution of pathogen genotype, drug resistance phenotype, and pharmacokinetics on clinical outcomes including lumbar opening pressure, pharmacodynamic effect, and mortality. We report remarkable genomic homogeneity among infecting strains of Cryptococcus spp., within and between patients. There was no evidence of acquisition of antifungal resistance in our isolates. Genotypic features of the infecting strain were not consistently associated with adverse or favorable clinical outcomes. However, baseline fungal burden and early fungicidal activity (EFA) were associated with mortality. The strongest predictor of EFA was the level of exposure to amphotericin B. Our analysis suggests the most effective means of improving clinical outcomes from HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis is to optimize exposure to potent antifungal therapy. IMPORTANCE: HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis is associated with a high burden of mortality. Research into the different strain types causing this disease has yielded inconsistent findings in terms of which strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes. Our study suggests that the exposure of patients to potent anti-cryptococcal drugs has a more significant impact on clinical outcomes than the strain type of the infecting organism. Future research should focus on optimizing drug exposure, particularly in the context of novel anticryptococcal drugs coming into clinical use.

Tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Surveillance in Malawi (Timasamala)-A protocol for a cross-sectional Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity survey in Blantyre, Malawi.

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of "latent TB infection", or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally.

Development and validation of quantitative PCR assays for HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa: a diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis is the second leading cause of AIDS-related deaths, with a 10-week mortality rate of 25-30%. Fungal load assessed by colony-forming unit (CFU) counts is used as a prognostic marker and to monitor response to treatment in research studies. PCR-based assessment of fungal load could be quicker and less labour-intensive. We sought to design, optimise, and validate quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays for the detection, identification, and quantification of Cryptococcus infections in patients with cryptococcal meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We developed and validated species-specific qPCR assays based on DNA amplification of QSP1 (QSP1A specific to Cryptococcus neoformans, QSP1B/C specific to Cryptococcus deneoformans, and QSP1D specific to Cryptococcus gattii species) and a pan-Cryptococcus assay based on a multicopy 28S rRNA gene. This was a longitudinal study that validated the designed assays on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of 209 patients with cryptococcal meningitis at baseline (day 0) and during anti-fungal therapy (day 7 and day 14), from the AMBITION-cm trial in Botswana and Malawi (2018-21). Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older and presenting with a first case of cryptococcal meningitis. FINDINGS: When compared with quantitative cryptococcal culture as the reference, the sensitivity of the 28S rRNA was 98·2% (95% CI 95·1-99·5) and of the QSP1 assay was 90·4% (85·2-94·0) in CSF at day 0. Quantification of the fungal load with QSP1 and 28S rRNA qPCR correlated with quantitative cryptococcal culture (R2=0·73 and R2=0·78, respectively). Both Botswana and Malawi had a predominant C neoformans prevalence of 67% (95% CI 55-75) and 68% (57-73), respectively, and lower C gattii rates of 21% (14-31) and 8% (4-14), respectively. We identified ten patients that, after 14 days of treatment, harboured viable but non-culturable yeasts based on QSP1 RNA detection (without any positive CFU in CSF culture). INTERPRETATION: QSP1 and 28S rRNA assays are useful in identifying Cryptococcus species. qPCR results correlate well with baseline quantitative cryptococcal culture and show a similar decline in fungal load during induction therapy. These assays could be a faster alternative to quantitative cryptococcal culture to determine fungal load clearance. The clinical implications of the possible detection of viable but non-culturable cells in CSF during induction therapy remain unclear. FUNDING: European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership; Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency; Wellcome Trust/UK Medical Research Council/UKAID Joint Global Health Trials; and UK National Institute for Health Research.

Antimicrobial learning systems: an implementation blueprint for artificial intelligence to tackle antimicrobial resistance.

The proliferation of various forms of artificial intelligence (AI) brings many opportunities to improve health care. AI models can harness complex evolving data, inform and augment human actions, and learn from health outcomes such as morbidity and mortality. The global public health challenge of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) needs large-scale optimisation of antimicrobial use and wider infection care, which could be enabled by carefully constructed AI models. As AI models become increasingly useful and robust, health-care systems remain challenging places for their deployment. An implementation gap exists between the promise of AI models and their use in patient and population care. Here, we outline an adaptive implementation and maintenance framework for AI models to improve antimicrobial use and infection care as a learning system. The roles of AMR problem identification, law and regulation, organisational support, data processing, and AI development, assessment, maintenance, and scalability in the implementation of AMR-targeted AI models are considered.

Practical considerations for a TB controlled human infection model (TB-CHIM); the case for TB-CHIM in Africa, a systematic review of the literature and report of 2 workshop discussions in UK and Malawi.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major challenge in many domains including diagnosis, pathogenesis, prevention, treatment, drug resistance and long-term protection of the public health by vaccination. A controlled human infection model (CHIM) could potentially facilitate breakthroughs in each of these domains but has so far been considered impossible owing to technical and safety concerns. Methods: A systematic review of mycobacterial human challenge studies was carried out to evaluate progress to date, best possible ways forward and challenges to be overcome. We searched MEDLINE (1946 to current) and CINAHL (1984 to current) databases; and Google Scholar to search citations in selected manuscripts. The final search was conducted 3 rd February 2022. Inclusion criteria: adults ≥18 years old; administration of live mycobacteria; and interventional trials or cohort studies with immune and/or microbiological endpoints. Exclusion criteria: animal studies; studies with no primary data; no administration of live mycobacteria; retrospective cohort studies; case-series; and case-reports. Relevant tools (Cochrane Collaboration for RCTs and Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for non-randomised studies) were used to assess risk of bias and present a narrative synthesis of our findings. Results: The search identified 1,388 titles for review; of these 90 were reviewed for inclusion; and 27 were included. Of these, 15 were randomised controlled trials and 12 were prospective cohort studies. We focussed on administration route, challenge agent and dose administered for data extraction. Overall, BCG studies including fluorescent BCG show the most immediate utility, and genetically modified Mycobacteria tuberculosis is the most tantalising prospect of discovery breakthrough. Conclusions: The TB-CHIM development group met in 2019 and 2022 to consider the results of the systematic review, to hear presentations from many of the senior authors whose work had been reviewed and to consider best ways forward. This paper reports both the systematic review and the deliberations. Registration: PROSPERO ( CRD42022302785; 21 January 2022).

Population pharmacokinetics and CSF penetration of flucytosine in adults with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningoencephalitis.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data describing clinical flucytosine pharmacokinetics (PK). The variability of flucytosine partitioning into the CNS is not known. We described the interindividual variability in flucytosine PK in patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningoencephalitis. In addition, we quantified the extent and variability of CSF partitioning of flucytosine. METHODS: A PK study was conducted in 64 patients with confirmed HIV-associated cryptococcal meningoencephalitis in Blantyre, Malawi. A four-compartment PK model was developed, and Monte Carlo simulations were performed with flucytosine administered at different doses and in different schedules. RESULTS: The estimated mean apparent volume of the central compartment was 17.50 (SD 9.99) L; mean apparent clearance was 5.88 (SD 3.35) L/h; mean apparent volume of the CNS compartment was 41.73 (SD 13.66) L. From the Bayesian posterior estimates, AUC24 values at steady state (144-168 h) with doses of 25 mg/kg q6h were median (IQR) 890.38 (603.81-1213.70) mg.h/L in plasma and 595.66 (425.69-776.64) mg.h/L in CSF. The ratio of CSF:plasma AUC24 was 0.69 (IQR 0.58-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed significant interindividual variability in flucytosine PK in plasma and CSF in patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningoencephalitis. The population PK model is a first critical step for revised flucytosine regimens that maximize fungal killing and minimize toxicity and the emergence of resistance.

A comparison of four epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Malawi; an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Compared to the abundance of clinical and genomic information available on patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease from high-income countries, there is a paucity of data from low-income countries. Our aim was to explore the relationship between viral lineage and patient outcome. METHODS: We enrolled a prospective observational cohort of adult patients hospitalised with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 disease between July 2020 and March 2022 from Blantyre, Malawi, covering four waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Clinical and diagnostic data were collected using an adapted ISARIC clinical characterization protocol for COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 isolates were sequenced using the MinION™ in Blantyre. RESULTS: We enrolled 314 patients, good quality sequencing data was available for 55 patients. The sequencing data showed that 8 of 11 participants recruited in wave one had B.1 infections, 6/6 in wave two had Beta, 25/26 in wave three had Delta and 11/12 in wave four had Omicron. Patients infected during the Delta and Omicron waves reported fewer underlying chronic conditions and a shorter time to presentation. Significantly fewer patients required oxygen (22.7% [17/75] vs. 58.6% [140/239], p < 0.001) and steroids (38.7% [29/75] vs. 70.3% [167/239], p < 0.001) in the Omicron wave compared with the other waves. Multivariable logistic-regression demonstrated a trend toward increased mortality in the Delta wave (OR 4.99 [95% CI 1.0-25.0 p = 0.05) compared to the first wave of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that each wave of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 was infected with a distinct viral variant. The clinical data suggests that patients with severe COVID-19 disease were more likely to die during the Delta wave.

How Applicable Is the Single-Dose AMBITION Regimen for Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Associated Cryptococcal Meningitis to High-Income Settings?

The AmBisome Therapy Induction Optimization (AMBITION-cm) trial, conducted in eastern and southern Africa, showed that a single, high dose (10 mg/kg) of liposomal amphotericin B, given with an oral backbone of fluconazole and flucytosine, was noninferior to the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended regimen of 7 days of amphotericin B deoxycholate plus flucytosine for treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated cryptococcal meningitis and has been incorporated into WHO treatment guidelines. We believe that the trial also has important implications for the treatment of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in high-income settings. We advance the arguments, supported by evidence where available, that the AMBITION-cm trial regimen is likely to be as fungicidal as the currently recommended 14-day liposomal amphotericin-based treatments, better tolerated with fewer adverse effects, and confer significant economic and practical benefits and, therefore, should be included as a treatment option in guidance for HIV-associated cryptococcal treatment in high-income settings.

High prevalence of dyslipidaemia among persons with diabetes mellitus and hypertension at a tertiary hospital in Blantyre, Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidaemia drives the process of atherosclerosis, and hence a significant modifiable risk factor complicating hypertension and diabetes. In Malawi, the prevalence, screening and management of dyslipidaemia among persons with diabetes mellitus have not been reported. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, biochemical characteristics, screening and management practices for dyslipidaemia among persons with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus and hypertension comorbidity at Queen Elizabeth Central hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 2021. A total of 256 adult participants (diabetes mellitus = 100); hypertension = 100; both conditions = 56) were included. Medical data and anthropometric measurements were recorded. Blood samples were analysed for HbA1C and serum lipids. Associated risk factors for dyslipidaemia were also assessed. RESULTS: Dyslipidaemia was prevalent in 58%, 55%, and 70% of participants with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and both conditions. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) dyslipidaemia was the most common in all participant groups. Participants with both diabetes and hypertension had 2.4 times (95% CI 1.2-4.6) increased risk of LDL-C dyslipidaemia than those with diabetes alone (p < 0.02). Being overweight or obese and age over 30 years were risk factors for dyslipidaemia in participants with diabetes mellitus alone (OR 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.6), p < 0.04, and OR 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.7) (p < 0.01), respectively. Overweight and obesity predicted LDL-C dyslipidaemia in hypertensive patients (OR 3.5 (95% CI 1.2-9.9) p < 0.001). Poorly controlled hypertension and the use of beta-blockers and thiazide diuretics predicted dyslipidaemia among patients with both diabetes mellitus and hypertension (OR 6.50 CI 1.45-29.19; and OR 5.20 CI 1.16-23.36 respectively). None of the participants had a lipogram performed before the study or were on lipid-lowering therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Dyslipidaemia with LDL-C derangement was highly prevalent, especially in individuals with both diabetes mellitus and hypertension, and there was absent use of lipid-lowering therapy. Screening and managing dyslipidaemia should be reinforced to reduce the risk of cardiovascular complications in this population at increased risk.