The cost of mass drug administration for trachoma in two counties of the Republic of South Sudan.

Community-wide distribution of azithromycin, otherwise known as mass drug administration (MDA), is a component of the World Health Organization-endorsed SAFE strategy for the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. In the Republic of South Sudan, 2.9 million people are known to live in areas that are known to require interventions and warrant MDA. This study estimated the total costs and cost per person treated during MDA in two counties, Kapoeta North and Kapoeta East, in South Sudan. MDA was conducted in Kapoeta North and Kapoeta East counties from October 2020 to January 2021. Following training and community sensitization, a core team, consisting of a height measurer, a drug dispenser, and a data recorder, delivered the intervention. A detailed costing database was developed in Microsoft Excel. An ingredients approach was used to capture all financial and economic costs incurred from a payer perspective. Primary outcomes included the total cost of MDA in each county and the cost per person treated in each county. In Kapoeta North, 58,226 people were treated at a financial cost of $71,350 USD. This corresponds to a unit cost of $1.22 per person treated. The total economic cost of the intervention was $99,036, at a unit cost of $1.70 per person treated. In Kapoeta East, 156,092 people were treated at a total financial cost of $168,404. This corresponds to a unit cost of $1.08 per person treated. The total economic cost of the intervention was $243,205, at a unit cost of $1.56 per person treated. The study highlights the cost variation for MDA implementation across two counties of South Sudan. As the South Sudan trachoma program expands, this information will be valuable for program planning.

The Epidemiology of Ocular Chlamydia trachomatis Infection within Districts Persistently Endemic for Trachoma in Amhara, Ethiopia.

Persistent trachoma is a growing concern to trachoma control programs globally and programs serving Ethiopia specifically. Persistent trachoma is defined as a district with two or more trachoma impact surveys (TISs) at which the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children ages 1-9 years is ≥5%, the elimination threshold. Because the global target for trachoma elimination as a public health problem is 2030, research is needed to better characterize persistent trachoma. This study described the epidemiology of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, the causative bacteria of trachoma, in seven contiguous districts experiencing persistent trachoma. In 2019, multistage cluster random sampling TISs were conducted in the seven districts after 10 years of interventions. All individuals ages ≥1 year were examined for trachoma clinical signs by certified graders, and conjunctival swabs were collected from children ages 1-5 years to test for C. trachomatis infection. The district TF prevalence ranged from 11.8% (95% CI:7.6-16.0%) to 36.1% (95% CI:27.4-44.3%). The range of district-level C. trachomatis infection prevalence was between 2.7% and 34.4%. Statistically significant spatial clustering of high-infection communities was observed in the study districts, and children with infection were more likely than those without to be found in households with clinical signs of trachoma and those without latrines. These seven districts appear to constitute a persistent hotspot in Amhara, where an additional 3-5 years or more of interventions will be required. The global program will need to strengthen and enhance intervention strategies within persistent districts if elimination by 2030 is to be achieved.

Photographic grading to evaluate facial cleanliness and trachoma among children in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Promotion of facial cleanliness is recommended for the elimination of blinding trachoma, largely because of observational studies that have found an association between various measures of facial uncleanliness and trachoma. However, when a field grader assesses both facial cleanliness and trachoma, associations may be biased. Assessment of photographs of the face and conjunctiva by masked graders may provide a less biased estimate of the relationship between facial cleanliness and trachoma. METHODS: Face photographs, conjunctival photographs, and conjunctival swabs were obtained on a random sample of 0-9-year-old children from each of 40 communities in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Face photographs were assessed for the presence of seven measures of an unclean face (i.e., wet nasal discharge, dry nasal discharge, wet ocular discharge, dry ocular discharge, food, dust/dirt, and flies) by three independent masked photo-graders. Conjunctival photographs were similarly graded in a masked fashion for signs of clinically active trachoma. Conjunctival swabs were processed for Chlamydia trachomatis DNA. RESULTS: Of 2073 children with complete data, 808 (39%) had evidence of clinically active trachoma, 150 (7%) had evidence of ocular chlamydia infection, and 2524 (91%) had at least one measure of an unclean face. Dry ocular discharge had the strongest association with clinically active trachoma (age- and sex-adjusted prevalence ratio [PR] 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6) and ocular chlamydia infection (PR 1.9, 95%CI 1.3-2.9), although significant associations were observed between each of the measures of facial uncleanliness and trachoma. CONCLUSIONS: Masked assessment of face and conjunctival photographs confirmed prior observational studies that have noted associations between various measures of facial uncleanliness and trachoma. The causal relationship between facial uncleanliness and trachoma is unclear since many features used to measure facial cleanliness (e.g., ocular discharge, nasal discharge, and flies) could be consequences of antecedent ocular chlamydia infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02754583, clinicaltrials.gov.

Severity of Trachomatous Scarring among Adults in Trachoma-Endemic Amhara Region of Ethiopia.

Trachomatous scarring has been shown to progress regardless of active ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, indicating that scarring drivers may be unrelated to ongoing transmission. Although scarring prevalence is commonly associated with older age and female sex, less is known about other potential contributors to its development. This study identified and assessed risk factors associated with scarring magnitude in a trachoma-endemic setting, utilizing a five-point photographic scale (S0-S4). During 2017 trachoma surveys of Amhara, Ethiopia, photographers captured left and right conjunctival images of adults (ages 15 years and older) from 10 districts. Subsequently, two graders independently assessed photographs for scarring, with discrepancies adjudicated by an expert grader. Scarring scores for 729 individuals were aggregated from the eye level to the participant level, excluding 17 participants because of poor photograph quality. Among those with scarring, most cases (20.4%) were severe (S4, comprising more than 90% of the tarsal conjunctiva) compared with the prevalence of moderate S3-A/B (11.2%), S2 (8.3%), and mild S1 (19.2%). The youngest group (ages 15-19 years) exhibited all scarring stages. Older participants (60 years and older) experienced a greater burden of severe scarring (S4 prevalence: 32.6%) than their younger (15-19 years) counterparts (6.2%). Multivariate ordinal logistic regression models indicated female sex, increasing age, and district-level trachomatous follicular-inflammation prevalence were significant predictors of scarring severity. Trachomatous scarring and its progression to trichiasis, may prove a barrier to meeting WHO timelines for trachoma elimination and will necessitate ongoing surveillance and interventions after elimination thresholds have been met.

Integrated Serosurveillance for Onchocerciasis, Lymphatic Filariasis, and Schistosomiasis in North Darfur, Sudan.

Sudan is endemic for multiple neglected tropical diseases, including trachoma, onchocerciasis (OV), lymphatic filariasis (LF), and schistosomiasis (SCH). In 2019, dried blood spot samples were collected for a baseline trachoma serosurvey in three localities (El Seraif, Kotom, and Saraf Omrah) in North Darfur State. None were classified previously as OV- or LF-endemic, although low levels of SCH had been identified in all three. Approximately 30 households from 25 communities in each locality were selected by multistage cluster random sampling. Collections of DBSs were analyzed by multiplex bead assay for antibodies to multiple pathogens. This paper presents data on OV (Ov16), LF (Wb123, Bm14, Bm33), and SCH (soluble egg antigen [SEA], Sm25) antibodies among 8,322 individuals from 2,119 households. The survey-adjusted seroprevalence estimates for Ov16 were <0.3% in all localities. Lymphatic filariasis-antigen seroprevalences were discordant. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 4.6-6.0% (Wb123), 0.99-1.4% (Bm14), and 29.2-33.3% (Bm33). Schistosomiasis seroprevalence estimates among school-aged children ranged from 2.7-8.0% (SEA) and 10.9-15.6% (Sm25). Ov16 seropositivity was low and supported the localities' classification as nonendemic. The results suggested LF exposure, but discordance between antigens, challenges defining seropositivity thresholds, and the absence of programmatic guidance based on antibody serology alone for Wuchereria bancrofti indicate a need for remapping surveys to confirm transmission. Schistosomiasis antibody levels were high enough to warrant further mapping to guide treatment decisions. The lack of gold standards limited interpretation of results, particularly for LF, but in resource-challenged areas, integrated serological surveillance offers the possibility of efficient monitoring of exposure to multiple diseases.

Impact of a School Trachoma Program Emphasizing Facial Cleanliness and Environmental Improvement in Amhara, Ethiopia.

The SAFE (Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, Environmental improvement) strategy is the WHO's endorsed approach for eliminating trachoma as a public health problem; however, not all components have been treated equally. Historically, the F and E components have not been prioritized owing to their perceived complexity. With school enrollment increasing in Ethiopia, development of a national school health program that is focused on the F and E components represents an opportunity to strengthen the SAFE strategy in the country. In 2016, the Trachoma Control Program in Amhara, Ethiopia, along with its partners, developed a School Trachoma Program (STP) that offers grade-specific lessons to improve sanitation and hygiene knowledge and practices among primary school-aged children. To assess its impact, schools were sampled before implementation and then up to 1 year after STP rollout. The aim of this report is to detail STP outcomes and the associations between outcomes and school-level variables. By 2018, adoption of an STP was strong within Amhara, with 85% of the 137 surveyed schools completing their quarterly reports and nearly 80% having at least one teacher trained in the STP. By the end of the third quarter, nearly all schools (86%) had access to a latrine, and 89% of students had a clean face. A schoolwide orientation was associated with increased STP lessons and activities (P = 0.01). Development of an STP, with buy-in from principals and teachers, represents a promising approach for the adoption of a new F- and E-specific curriculum and may help advance efforts to eliminate trachoma.

Unravelling Chlamydia trachomatis diversity in Amhara, Ethiopia: MLVA-ompA sequencing as a molecular typing tool for trachoma.

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide and is now largely confined to around 40 low- and middle-income countries. It is caused by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct), a contagious intracellular bacterium. The World Health Organization recommends mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin for treatment and control of ocular Ct infections, alongside improving facial cleanliness and environmental conditions to reduce transmission. To understand the molecular epidemiology of trachoma, especially in the context of MDA and transmission dynamics, the identification of Ct genotypes could be useful. While many studies have used the Ct major outer membrane protein gene (ompA) for genotyping, it has limitations. Our study applies a typing system novel to trachoma, Multiple Loci Variable Number Tandem Repeat Analysis combined with ompA (MLVA-ompA). Ocular swabs were collected post-MDA from four trachoma-endemic zones in Ethiopia between 2011-2017. DNA from 300 children with high Ct polymerase chain reaction (PCR) loads was typed using MLVA-ompA, utilizing 3 variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) loci within the Ct genome. Results show that MLVA-ompA exhibited high discriminatory power (0.981) surpassing the recommended threshold for epidemiological studies. We identified 87 MLVA-ompA variants across 26 districts. No significant associations were found between variants and clinical signs or chlamydial load. Notably, overall Ct diversity significantly decreased after additional MDA rounds, with a higher proportion of serovar A post-MDA. Despite challenges in sequencing one VNTR locus (CT1299), MLVA-ompA demonstrated cost-effectiveness and efficiency relative to whole genome sequencing, providing valuable information for trachoma control programs on local epidemiology. The findings suggest the potential of MLVA-ompA as a reliable tool for typing ocular Ct and understanding transmission dynamics, aiding in the development of targeted interventions for trachoma control.

Serological Responses to Trachoma Antigens prior to the Start of Mass Drug Administration: Results from Population-Based Baseline Surveys, North Darfur, Sudan.

After years of programmatic inaccessibility, in 2019-2020 the Sudan Federal Ministry of Health Trachoma Control Program conducted population-based trachoma surveys in three localities (districts) in North Darfur state, Sudan. These baseline surveys were to determine the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children aged 1-9 years and to further use serological markers to understand the historical trachoma burden within this mass drug administration (MDA)-naive area. Trained and certified graders collected trachoma clinical data, and trained nurses collected dried blood spot (DBS) samples. The DBSs were assayed on a multiplex bead array for antibody responses to the Chlamydia trachomatis antigens Pgp3 and CT694. Across the three localities, 3,613 individuals aged 1-9 years and 3,542 individuals aged ≥15 years were examined for clinical signs, and 8,322 DBSs were collected. The prevalence of TF among children aged 1-9 years was endemic (≥5%) in two localities (El Seraif, 15.6%, and Saraf Omrah, 11.0%) and below the TF elimination threshold (<5%) in the third (Kotom, 1.4%). The Pgp3 seroprevalence among children aged 1-9 years was 34.1% in El Seraif, 35.0% in Saraf Omrah, and 11.0% in Kotom. Locality prevalence results were similar for Pgp3 and CT694. Seroprevalence increased with age in all three localities. Serological data collected within these surveys demonstrate that all three localities have had a long history of exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis and that two of the three localities require MDA to reach elimination as a public health problem threshold.

Wait and watch: A trachoma surveillance strategy from Amhara region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma recrudescence after elimination as a public health problem has been reached is a concern for control programs globally. Programs typically conduct district-level trachoma surveillance surveys (TSS) ≥ 2 years after the elimination threshold is achieved to determine whether the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children ages 1 to 9 years remains <5%. Many TSS are resulting in a TF prevalence ≥5%. Once a district returns to TF ≥5%, a program typically restarts costly mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns and surveys at least twice, for impact and another TSS. In Amhara, Ethiopia, most TSS which result in a TF ≥5% have a prevalence close to 5%, making it difficult to determine whether the result is due to true recrudescence or to statistical variability. This study's aim was to monitor recrudescence within Amhara by waiting to restart MDA within 2 districts with a TF prevalence ≥5% at TSS, Metema = 5.2% and Woreta Town = 5.1%. The districts were resurveyed 1 year later using traditional and alternative indicators, such as measures of infection and serology, a "wait and watch" approach. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: These post-surveillance surveys, conducted in 2021, were multi-stage cluster surveys whereby certified graders assessed trachoma signs. Children ages 1 to 9 years provided a dried blood spot and children ages 1 to 5 years provided a conjunctival swab. TF prevalence in Metema and Woreta Town were 3.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]:1.4-6.4) and 2.5% (95% CI:0.8-4.5) respectively. Infection prevalence was 1.2% in Woreta Town and 0% in Metema. Seroconversion rates to Pgp3 in Metema and Woreta Town were 0.4 (95% CI:0.2-0.7) seroconversions per 100 child-years and 0.9 (95% CI:0.6-1.5) respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Both study districts had a TF prevalence <5% with low levels of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and transmission, and thus MDA interventions are no longer warranted. The wait and watch approach represents a surveillance strategy which could lead to fewer MDA campaigns and surveys and thus cost savings with reduced antibiotic usage.

Seroreversion to Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 antigen among children in a hyperendemic region of Amhara, Ethiopia.

Monitoring trachoma transmission with antibody data requires characterization of decay in IgG to Chlamydia trachomatis antigens. In a three-year longitudinal cohort in a high transmission setting, we estimated a median IgG half-life of 3 years and a seroreversion rate of 2.5 (95% CI: 1.6, 3.5) per 100 person-years.

Monitoring transmission intensity of trachoma with serology.

Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1-9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0-54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0-15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity ( >90%) and moderate specificity (69-75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

How well do coverage surveys and programmatically reported mass drug administration coverage match? Results from 214 mass drug administration campaigns in 15 countries, 2008-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Delivering preventive chemotherapy through mass drug administration (MDA) is a central approach in controlling or eliminating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Treatment coverage, a primary indicator of MDA performance, can be measured through routinely reported programmatic data or population-based coverage evaluation surveys. Reported coverage is often the easiest and least expensive way to estimate coverage; however, it is prone to inaccuracies due to errors in data compilation and imprecise denominators, and in some cases measures treatments offered as opposed to treatments swallowed. OBJECTIVE: Analyses presented here aimed to understand (1) how often coverage calculated using routinely reported data and survey data would lead programme managers to make the same programmatic decisions; (2) the magnitude and direction of the difference between these two estimates, and (3) whether there is meaningful variation by region, age group or country. METHODS: We analysed and compared reported and surveyed treatment coverage data from 214 MDAs implemented between 2008 and 2017 in 15 countries in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean. Routinely reported treatment coverage was compiled using data reported by national NTD programmes to donors, either directly or via NTD implementing partners, following the implementation of a district-level MDA campaign; coverage was calculated by dividing the number of individuals treated by a population value, which is typically based on national census projections and occasionally community registers. Surveyed treatment coverage came from post-MDA community-based coverage evaluation surveys, which were conducted as per standardised WHO recommended methodology. RESULTS: Coverage estimates using routine reporting and surveys gave the same result in terms of whether the minimum coverage threshold was reached in 72% of the MDAs surveyed in the Africa region and in 52% in the Asia region. The reported coverage value was within ±10 percentage points of the surveyed coverage value in 58/124 of the surveyed MDAs in the Africa region and 19/77 in the Asia region. Concordance between routinely reported and surveyed coverage estimates was 64% for the total population and 72% for school-age children. The study data showed variation across countries in the number of surveys conducted as well as the frequency with which there was concordance between the two coverage estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Programme managers must grapple with making decisions based on imperfect information, balancing needs for accuracy with cost and available capacity. The study shows that for many of the MDAs surveyed, based on the concordance with respect to reaching the minimum coverage thresholds, the routinely reported data were accurate enough to make programmatic decisions. Where coverage surveys do show a need to improve accuracy of routinely reported results, NTD programme managers should use various tools and approaches to strengthen data quality in order to use data for decision-making to achieve NTD control and elimination goals.

Cost and community acceptability of enhanced antibiotic distribution approaches for trachoma in the Republic of South Sudan: enhancing the A in SAFE (ETAS) study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization targeted trachoma for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Reaching elimination thresholds by the year 2030 in the Republic of South Sudan will be a considerable challenge, as the country currently has many counties considered hyper-endemic (> 30% trachomatous inflammation-follicular [TF]) that have yet to receive interventions. Evidence from randomized trials, modeling, and population-based surveys suggests that enhancements may be needed to the standard-of-care annual mass drug administration (MDA) to reach elimination thresholds in a timely manner within highly endemic areas. We describe a protocol for a study to determine the cost and community acceptability of enhanced antibiotic strategies for trachoma in South Sudan. METHODS: The Enhancing the A in SAFE (ETAS) study is a community randomized intervention costing and community acceptability study. Following a population-based trachoma prevalence survey in 1 county, 30 communities will be randomized 1:1 to receive 1 of 2 enhanced MDA interventions, with the remaining communities receiving standard-of-care annual MDA. The first intervention strategy will consist of a community-wide MDA followed by 2 rounds of targeted treatment to children ages 6 months to 9 years, 2 weeks and 4 weeks after the community MDA. The second strategy will consist of a community-wide biannual MDA approximately 6 to 8 months apart. The costing analysis will use a payer perspective and identify the total cost of the enhanced interventions and annual MDA. Community acceptability will be assessed through MDA coverage monitoring and mixed-methods research involving community stakeholders. A second trachoma-specific survey will be conducted 12 months following the original survey. DISCUSSION: ETAS has received ethical clearance and is expected to be conducted between 2022 and 2023. Results will be shared through subsequent manuscripts. The study's results will provide information to trachoma programs on whether enhanced interventions are affordable and acceptable to communities. These results will further help in the design of future trachoma-specific antibiotic efficacy trials. Enhanced MDA approaches could help countries recover from delays caused by conflict or humanitarian emergencies and could also assist countries such as South Sudan in reaching trachoma elimination as a public health problem by 2030. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered on December 1st, 2022 (clinicaltrails.org: NCT05634759).

Monitoring transmission intensity of trachoma with serology.

Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1- 9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0-54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0-15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity (>90%) and moderate specificity (69-75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

Seroreversion to Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 antigen among children in a hyperendemic region of Amhara, Ethiopia.

Monitoring trachoma transmission with antibody data requires characterization of decay in IgG to Chlamydia trachomatis antigens. In a three-year longitudinal cohort in a high transmission setting, we estimated a median IgG half-life of 3 years and a seroreversion rate of 2.5 (95% CI: 1.6, 3.5) per 100 person-years.

Prevalence of Ocular Chlamydia trachomatis Infection in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, after 8 Years of Trachoma Control Interventions.

Although trachoma mass drug administration (MDA) programs target ocular Chlamydia trachomatis, the global trachoma control program does not monitor infection as a measure of impact but instead relies on monitoring clinical indicators. This study aimed to monitor the prevalence of ocular C. trachomatis among a population-based sample of children ages 1-5 years throughout Amhara, Ethiopia, a region that has received approximately 8 years of annual MDA as part of trachoma control. Between 2014 and 2021, trachoma impact surveys and surveillance surveys were conducted in all 156 districts of Amhara using a multistage cluster randomized methodology. Certified graders assessed individuals ages ≥ 1 year for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), and a random subset of children ages 1-5 years also provided a conjunctival swab. Polymerase chain reaction was used to test for C. trachomatis. A total of 28,410 conjunctival swabs were collected from children ages 1-5 years across Amhara. The regional C. trachomatis infection prevalence was 4.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 4.3-5.1%). Infection was detected in all 10 zones of the region and ranged from 0.2% in Awi Zone to 11.9% in Waghemra Zone. Infection was detected in 17 (26%) districts with a TF prevalence < 10% and in 7 (21%) districts with a TF prevalence < 5%. Through programmatic monitoring of C. trachomatis infection, this study demonstrated that considerable infection remained throughout Amhara despite approximately 8 years of trachoma interventions and that enhanced interventions such as more frequent than annual MDA will be needed if elimination thresholds are to be reached.

Photographic grading for trachoma diagnosis within trachoma impact surveys in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: As countries reach the trachoma elimination threshold and cases of trachomatous inflammation follicular (TF) become rare, it becomes difficult to train survey graders to recognize clinical signs. We assess the use of photography as a grading tool, the efficiency of an in-country grading center and the comparability of field and photographic grading. METHODS: During January-February 2017 surveys in Amhara, Ethiopia, field graders assessed TF, trachomatous inflammation intense (TI) and trachomatous scarring (TS). Photographs were taken from each conjunctiva and later graded at the Gondar Grading Center (GGC) at the University of Gondar in Amhara. Two trained ophthalmology residents graded each set of photographs and a third grader provided an adjudicating grade when needed. RESULTS: A total of 4953 photographs of 2477 conjunctivae from 1241 participants in 10 communities were graded over 5 d at the GGC. Six examined participants were not photographed. Agreement between field and photographic grades were for TF: percent agreement (PA) 96.7%, κ=0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64 to 0.77; for TI: PA 94.7%, κ=0.32 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.43); and for TS: PA 83.5%, κ=0.22 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Conjunctival photography may be a solution for programs near the elimination threshold where there are few available community cases for training field graders.

Surgical output within the Fast Track Initiative against trachoma in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is the advanced stage of trachoma where lashes touch the globe of the eye causing permanent damage. Without eyelid surgery, TT can lead to irreversible blindness. In 2015 the Ethiopian Ministry of Health launched the Fast Track Initiative with the aim of enhancing the provision of surgical services for TT. The aims of this study were to determine the productivity of individual surgeons during the 2017 Initiative, to compare this productivity with the Ministry's annual target indicator of ≥ 200 surgeries, and to assess the factors associated with surgical output. METHODOLOGY: This retrospective cross-sectional study utilized programmatic data on surgical output from 140 surgeons active from January 2017 through December 2017 in the eastern half of Amhara region, Ethiopia. Data were collected from a surgery monitoring dataset, analyzed, and compared to the performance targets set by the Ministry. RESULTS: The mean annual number of surgeries carried out per surgeon was 169 (standard deviation: 111) for a total of 23,616 surgeries. Among the 140 surgeons, 38% achieved the target set by the Ministry. Location of surgical training site and estimated surgical backlog were signficantly associated with a higher surgery output. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in surgical output was observed compared to productivity prior to the Initiative, although the average annual output during the 2017 Fast Track Initiative was lower than the Ministry's target. Using data driven approaches to setting annual productivity goals should be considered, particularly in light of fewer remaining TT cases as a result of the successful Initiative.

Predicting future community-level ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection prevalence using serological, clinical, molecular, and geospatial data.

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0-5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6-9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0-5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0-5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.

Optimizing cluster survey designs for estimating trachomatous inflammation-follicular within trachoma control programs.

OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization recommends mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. MDA decisions are based on prevalence estimates from two-stage cluster surveys. There is a need to mathematically evaluate current trachoma survey designs. Our study aimed to characterize the effects of the number of units sampled on the precision and cost of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) estimates. METHODS: A population of 30 districts was simulated to represent the breadth of possible TF distributions in Amhara, Ethiopia. Samples of varying numbers of clusters (14-34) and households (10-60) were selected. Sampling schemes were evaluated based on precision, proportion of incorrect and low MDA decisions made, and estimated cost. RESULTS: The number of clusters sampled had a greater impact on precision than the number of households. The most efficient scheme depended on the underlying TF prevalence in a district. For lower prevalence areas (< 10%) the most cost-efficient design (providing adequate precision while minimizing cost) was 20 clusters of 20-30 households. For higher prevalence areas (> 10%), the most efficient design was 15-20 clusters of 20-30 households. CONCLUSIONS: For longer-running programs, using context-specific survey designs would allow for practical precision while reducing survey costs. Sampling 15 clusters of 20-30 households in suspected moderate-to-high prevalence districts and 20 clusters of 20-30 households in districts suspected to be near the 5% threshold appears to be a balanced approach.