Early arrival of spring-spawning Atlantic herring Clupea harengus at their spawning ground in the Kiel Fjord, western Baltic, relates to increasing winter seawater temperature.

The disturbance of marine organism phenology due to climate change and the subsequent effects on recruitment success are still poorly understood, especially in migratory fish species, such as the Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus; Clupeidae). Here we used the commercial catch data from a local fisher over a 50-year period (1971-2020) to estimate western Baltic spring-spawning (WBSS) herring mean arrival time Q50 (i.e., the week when 50% of the total fish catches had been made) at their spawning ground within the Kiel Fjord, southwest Baltic Sea, and the duration of the spawning season for each year. The relationship between the seawater temperature in the Kiel Bight and other environmental parameters (such as water salinity, North Atlantic and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations) and Q50 was evaluated using a general linear model to test the hypothesis that fish arrived earlier after warm than cold winters. We also estimated the accumulated thermal time to Q50 during gonadal development to estimate the effects of seawater temperature on the variations of Q50. The results of this study revealed a dramatic decrease in herring catches within the Kiel Fjord since the mid-1990s, as documented for the whole southwestern Baltic Sea. Warmer winter seawater temperature was the only factor related to an earlier arrival (1 week for one January seawater temperature degree increase) of herring at their spawning ground. The relationship was found for the first time on week 52 of the year prior to spawning and was the strongest (50% of the variability explained) from the fourth week of January (8 weeks before the mean Q50 among the studied years). A thermal constant to Q50 (~316°C day) was found when temperatures were integrated from the 49th week of the year prior to spawning. These results indicate that seawater temperature enhanced the speed of gonadal maturation during the latest phases of gametogenesis, leading to an early fish arrival under warm conditions. The duration of the spawning season was elongated during warmer years, therefore potentially mitigating the effects of trophic mismatch when fish spawn early. The results of this study highlight the altering effects of climate change on the spawning activity of a migratory fish species in the Baltic Sea where fast global changes presage that in other coastal areas worldwide.

Refining real-time predictions of Vibrio vulnificus concentrations in a tropical urban estuary by incorporating dissolved organic matter dynamics.

The south shore of O'ahu, Hawai'i is one of the most visited coastal tourism areas in the United States with some of the highest instances of recreational waterborne disease. A population of the pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus lives in the estuarine Ala Wai Canal in Honolulu which surrounds the heavily populated tourism center of Waikiki. We developed a statistical model to predict V. vulnificus dynamics in this system using environmental measurements from moored oceanographic and atmospheric sensors in real time. During a year-long investigation, we analyzed water from 9 sampling events at 3 depths and 8 sites along the canal (n = 213) for 36 biogeochemical variables and V. vulnificus concentration using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of the hemolysin A gene (vvhA). The best multiple linear regression model of V. vulnificus concentration, explaining 80% of variation, included only six predictors: 5-day average rainfall preceding water sampling, daily maximum air temperature, water temperature, nitrate plus nitrite, and two metrics of humic dissolved organic matter (DOM). We show how real-time predictions of V. vulnificus concentration can be made using these models applied to the time series of water quality measurements from the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) as well as the PacIOOS plume model based on the Waikiki Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) products. These applications highlight the importance of including DOM variables in predictive modeling of V. vulnificus and the influence of rain events in elevating nearshore concentrations of V. vulnificus. Long-term climate model projections of locally downscaled monthly rainfall and air temperature were used to predict an overall increase in V. vulnificus concentration of approximately 2- to 3-fold by 2100. Improving these predictive models of microbial populations is critical for management of waterborne pathogen risk exposure, particularly in the wake of a changing global climate.

Evidence for long-term seamount-induced chlorophyll enhancements.

Seamounts are ubiquitous global features often characterized by biological hotspots of diversity, biomass, and abundance, though the mechanisms responsible are poorly understood. One controversial explanation suggests seamount-induced chlorophyll enhancements (SICE) subsidize seamount ecosystems. Using a decade of satellite chlorophyll data, we report substantial long-term chlorophyll enhancements around 17% of Pacific seamounts and 45% of shallow (< 100 m) seamounts, with the highest probability of detection at shallow, low-latitude seamounts. SICE is shown to enhance chlorophyll concentrations by up to 56% relative to oceanic conditions, and SICE seamounts have two-fold higher fisheries catch relative to non-enhancing seamounts. Therefore, seamount-induced bottom-up trophic subsidies are not rare, occurring most often at shallow, heavily exploited seamounts, suggesting an important subset of seamounts experience fundamentally different trophic dynamics than previously thought.

Modeled larval connectivity of a multi-species reef fish and invertebrate assemblage off the coast of Moloka'i, Hawai'i.

We use a novel individual-based model (IBM) to simulate larval dispersal around the island of Moloka'i in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Our model uses ocean current output from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) as well as biological data on four invertebrate and seven fish species of management relevance to produce connectivity maps among sites around the island of Moloka'i. These 11 species span the range of life history characteristics of Hawaiian coral reef species and show different spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity as a result. As expected, the longer the pelagic larval duration (PLD), the greater the proportion of larvae that disperse longer distances, but regardless of PLD (3-270 d) most successful dispersal occurs either over short distances within an island (<30 km) or to adjacent islands (50-125 km). Again, regardless of PLD, around the island of Moloka'i, connectivity tends to be greatest among sites along the same coastline and exchange between northward, southward, eastward and westward-facing shores is limited. Using a graph-theoretic approach to visualize the data, we highlight that the eastern side of the island tends to show the greatest out-degree and betweenness centrality, which indicate important larval sources and connectivity pathways for the rest of the island. The marine protected area surrounding Kalaupapa National Historical Park emerges as a potential source for between-island larval connections, and the west coast of the Park is one of the few regions on Moloka'i that acts as a net larval source across all species. Using this IBM and visualization approach reveals patterns of exchange between habitat regions and highlights critical larval sources and multi-generational pathways to indicate priority areas for marine resource managers.

Temperature-dependent adaptation allows fish to meet their food across their species' range.

In seasonal environments, timing is everything: Ecosystem dynamics are controlled by how well predators can match their prey in space and time. This match of predator and prey is thought to be particularly critical for the vulnerable larval life stages of many fish, where limited parental investment means that population survival can depend on how well larvae match the timing of their food. We develop and apply novel metrics of thermal time to estimate the timing of unobserved stages of fish larvae and their prey across the north Atlantic. The result shows that previously identified life-history strategies are adaptive in that they allow parents to "predict" a beneficial environment for their offspring and meet larval fish food timing that varies by 99 days across a species' range.

Near-island biological hotspots in barren ocean basins.

Phytoplankton production drives marine ecosystem trophic-structure and global fisheries yields. Phytoplankton biomass is particularly influential near coral reef islands and atolls that span the oligotrophic tropical oceans. The paradoxical enhancement in phytoplankton near an island-reef ecosystem--Island Mass Effect (IME)--was first documented 60 years ago, yet much remains unknown about the prevalence and drivers of this ecologically important phenomenon. Here we provide the first basin-scale investigation of IME. We show that IME is a near-ubiquitous feature among a majority (91%) of coral reef ecosystems surveyed, creating near-island 'hotspots' of phytoplankton biomass throughout the upper water column. Variations in IME strength are governed by geomorphic type (atoll vs island), bathymetric slope, reef area and local human impacts (for example, human-derived nutrient input). These ocean oases increase nearshore phytoplankton biomass by up to 86% over oceanic conditions, providing basal energetic resources to higher trophic levels that support subsistence-based human populations.

Adult and offspring size in the ocean: a database of size metrics and conversion factors.

The purpose of this dataset was to compile adult and offspring size estimates for marine organisms. Adult and offspring size estimates of 408 species were compiled from the literature covering >17 orders of magnitude in body mass and including Cephalopoda (ink fish), Cnidaria ("jelly" fish), Crustaceans, Ctenophora (comb jellies), Elasmobranchii (cartilaginous fish), Mammalia (mammals), Sagittoidea (arrow worms) and Teleost (i.e., Actinopterygii, bony fish). Individual size estimates were converted to standardized size estimates (carbon weight, g) to allow for among-group comparisons. This required a number of size estimates to be converted and a compilation of conversion factors obtained from the literature are also presented.