Implementation research: a protocol for two three-arm pragmatic randomised controlled trials on continuous glucose monitoring devices in people with type 1 diabetes in South Africa and Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Self-monitoring of glucose is an essential component of type 1 diabetes (T1D) management. In recent years, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) has provided an alternative to daily fingerstick testing for the optimisation of insulin dosing and general glucose management in people with T1D. While studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact of CGM on clinical outcomes in the US, Europe and Australia, there are limited data available for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and further empirical evidence is needed to inform policy decision around their use in these countries. METHODS: This trial was designed as a pragmatic, parallel-group, open-label, multicentre, three-arm, randomised (1:1:1) controlled trial of continuous or periodic CGM device use versus standard of care in people with T1D in South Africa and Kenya. The primary objective of this trial will be to assess the impact of continuous or periodic CGM device use on glycaemic control as measured by change from baseline glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c). Additional assessments will include clinical outcomes (glucose variation, time in/below/above range), safety (adverse events, hospitalisations), quality of life (EQ-5D, T1D distress score, Glucose Monitoring Satisfaction Survey for T1D), and health economic measures (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, quality adjusted life years). DISCUSSION: This trial aims to address the substantial evidence gap on the impact of CGM device use on clinical outcomes in LMICs, specifically South Africa and Kenya. The trial results will provide evidence to inform policy and treatment decisions in these countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05944731 (Kenya), July 6, 2023; NCT05944718 (South Africa), July 13, 2023.

Cost of SARS-CoV-2 self-test distribution programmes by different modalities: a micro-costing study in five countries (Brazil, Georgia, Malaysia, Ethiopia and the Philippines).

OBJECTIVE: Diagnostic testing is an important tool to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, yet access to and uptake of testing vary widely 3 years into the pandemic. The WHO recommends the use of COVID-19 self-testing as an option to help expand testing access. We aimed to calculate the cost of providing COVID-19 self-testing across countries and distribution modalities. DESIGN: We estimated economic costs from the provider perspective to calculate the total cost and the cost per self-test kit distributed for three scenarios that differed by costing period (pilot, annual), the number of tests distributed (actual, planned, scaled assuming an epidemic peak) and self-test kit costs (pilot purchase price, 50% reduction). SETTING: We used data collected between August and December 2022 in Brazil, Georgia, Malaysia, Ethiopia and the Philippines from pilot implementation studies designed to provide COVID-19 self-tests in a variety of settings-namely, workplace and healthcare facilities. RESULTS: Across all five countries, 173 000 kits were distributed during pilot implementation with the cost/test distributed ranging from $2.44 to $12.78. The cost/self-test kit distributed was lowest in the scenario that assumed implementation over a longer period (year), with higher test demand (peak) and a test kit price reduction of 50% ($1.04-3.07). Across all countries and scenarios, test procurement occupied the greatest proportion of costs: 58-87% for countries with off-site self-testing (outside the workplace, for example, home) and 15-50% for countries with on-site self-testing (at the workplace). Staffing was the next key cost driver, particularly for distribution modalities that had on-site self-testing (29-35%) versus off-site self-testing (7-27%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that it is likely to cost between $2.44 and $12.78 per test to distribute COVID-19 self-tests across common settings in five heterogeneous countries. Cost-effectiveness analyses using these results will allow policymakers to make informed decisions on optimally scaling up COVID-19 self-test distribution programmes across diverse settings and evolving needs.

Cost-effectiveness of intervention combinations towards the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV in limited-resource settings: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, there has been a substantial global reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV. Despite effective interventions, gaps still remain in progress towards elimination in many low-income and middle-income countries. We developed a mathematical model to determine the most cost-effective combinations of interventions to prevent vertical transmission. METHODS: We developed a 12-month Markov model to follow a cohort of women of childbearing age (aged 15-49 years) in Zambia (n=1 107 255) who were either pregnant, in delivery, or breastfeeding; the population included in the model reflects the estimated number of pregnant women in Zambia from the 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. The model incorporated nine interventions: infant prophylaxis; three different HIV retesting schedule options; oral pre-exposure prophylaxis; maternal peer-support groups; regimen shift; tracing of loss to follow-up; and point-of-care viral load testing. We analysed incident HIV infections among mothers and infants, intervention costs, and evaluated 190 scenarios of different combinations of inventions to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over 1 year. FINDINGS: Three interventions with the greatest reduction in vertical transmission, individually, were support groups for 80% of those in need (35% reduction in infant infections), HIV retesting schedules (6·5% reduction), and infant prophylaxis (4·5% reduction). Of all 190 scenarios evaluated, eight were on the cost-effectiveness frontier (ie, were considered to be cost-effective); all eight included increasing infant prophylaxis, regimen shift, and use of support groups. Excluding the highest-cost scenarios, for a 1-22% increase in total budget, 23-43% of infant infections could be prevented, producing ICERs between US$244 and $16 242. INTERPRETATION: Using the interventions modelled, it is possible to reduce vertical transmission and to cost-effectively prevent up to 1734 infant HIV infections (43% reduction) in Zambia over a period of 1 year. To optimise their effect, these interventions must be scaled with fidelity. Future work is needed to incorporate evidence on additional innovative interventions and HIV risk factors, and to apply the model to other country contexts to support targeted implementation and resource use. FUNDING: The ELMA Foundation.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies in schools: a multicountry modelling analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the most epidemiologically effective and cost-effective school-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) self-testing strategies among teachers and students. DESIGN: Mathematical modelling and economic evaluation. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Simulated school and community populations were parameterised to Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, with SARS-CoV-2 self-testing strategies targeted to teachers and students in primary and secondary schools under varying epidemic conditions. INTERVENTIONS: SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT self-testing strategies for only teachers or teachers and students-only symptomatically or symptomatically and asymptomatically at 5%, 10%, 40% or 100% of schools at varying frequencies. OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were assessed in terms of total infections and symptomatic days among teachers and students, as well as total infections and deaths within the community under the intervention compared with baseline. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for infections prevented among teachers and students. RESULTS: With respect to both the reduction in infections and total cost, symptomatic testing of all teachers and students appears to be the most cost-effective strategy. Symptomatic testing can prevent up to 69·3%, 64·5% and 75·5% of school infections in Brazil, Georgia and Zambia, respectively, depending on the epidemic conditions, with additional reductions in community infections. ICERs for symptomatic testing range from US$2 to US$19 per additional school infection averted as compared with symptomatic testing of teachers alone. CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic testing of teachers and students has the potential to cost-effectively reduce a substantial number of school and community infections.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs.

Oral antivirals have the potential to reduce the public health burden of COVID-19. However, now that we have exited the emergency-phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, declining SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates (average testing rates = [Formula: see text]10 tests/100,000 people/day in low-and-middle income countries; <100 tests/100,000 people/day in high-income countries; September 2023) make the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. We used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies affect the use and effectiveness of oral antiviral test-to-treat programs in four country archetypes of different income levels and demographies. We find that in the post-emergency-phase of the pandemic, in countries where low testing rates are driven by limited testing capacity, significant population-level impact of test-and-treat programs can only be achieved by both increasing testing rates and prioritizing individuals with greater risk of severe disease. However, for all countries, significant reductions in severe cases with antivirals are only possible if testing rates were substantially increased with high willingness of people to seek testing. Comparing the potential population-level reductions in severe disease outcomes of test-to-treat programs and vaccination shows that test-and-treat strategies are likely substantially more resource intensive requiring very high levels of testing (≫100 tests/100,000 people/day) and antiviral use suggesting that vaccination should be a higher priority.

Provider-led community antiretroviral therapy distribution in Malawi: Retrospective cohort study of retention, viral load suppression and costs.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes of community antiretroviral therapy (ART) distribution (CAD), in which provider-led ART teams deliver integrated HIV services at health posts in communities, have been mixed in sub-Saharan African countries. CAD outcomes and costs relative to facility-based care have not been reported from Malawi. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in two Malawian districts (Lilongwe and Chikwawa districts), comparing CAD with facility-based ART care. We selected an equal number of clients in CAD and facility-based care who were aged >13 years, had an undetectable viral load (VL) result in the last year and were stable on first-line ART for ≥1 year. We compared retention in care (alive and no period of ≥60 days without ART) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression and maintenance of VL suppression (<1,000 copies/mL) during follow-up using logistic regression. We also compared costs (in US$) from the health system and client perspectives for the two models of care. Data were collected in October and November 2020. RESULTS: 700 ART clients (350 CAD, 350 facility-based) were included. The median age was 43 years (IQR 36-51), median duration on ART was 7 years (IQR 4-9), and 75% were female. Retention in care did not differ significantly between clients in CAD (89.4% retained) and facility-based care (89.3%), p = 0.95. No significant difference in maintenance of VL suppression were observed between CAD and facility-based care (aOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 0.47-3.20, p = 0.70). CAD resulted in slightly higher health system costs than facility-based care: $118/year vs. $108/year per person accessing care; and $133/year vs. $122/year per person retained in care. CAD decreased individual client costs compared to facility-based care: $3.20/year vs. $11.40/year per person accessing care; and $3.60/year vs. $12.90/year per person retained in care. CONCLUSION: Clients in provider-led CAD care in Malawi had very good retention in care and VL suppression outcomes, similar to clients receiving facility-based care. While health system costs were somewhat higher with CAD, costs for clients were reduced substantially. More research is needed to understand the impact of other differentiated service delivery models on costs for the health system and clients.

Effect of index HIV self-testing for sexual partners of clients enrolled in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in Malawi: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: HIV testing among the sexual partners of HIV-positive clients is critical for case identification and reduced transmission in southern and eastern Africa. HIV self-testing (HIVST) may improve uptake of HIV services among sexual partners of antiretroviral therapy (ART) clients, but the impact of HIVST on partner testing and subsequent ART initiation remains unclear. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individually randomized, unblinded trial to assess if an index HIVST intervention targeting the partners of ART clients improves uptake of testing and treatment services in Malawi. The trial was conducted at 3 high-burden facilities in central and southern Malawi. ART clients attending HIV treatment clinics were randomized using simple randomization 1:2·5 to: (1) standard partner referral slip (PRS) whereby ART clients were given facility referral slips to distribute to their primary sexual partners; or (2) index HIVST whereby ART clients were given HIVST kits + HIVST instructions and facility referral slips to distribute to their primary sexual partners. Inclusion criteria for ART clients were: ≥15 years of age, primary partner with unknown HIV status, no history of interpersonal violence (IPV) with partner, and partner lives in facility catchment area. The primary outcome was partner testing 4-weeks after enrollment, reported by ART clients using endline surveys. Medical chart reviews and tracing activities with partners with a reactive HIV test measured ART initiation at 12 months. Analyses were conducted based on modified intention-to-treat principles, whereby we excluded individuals who did not have complete endline data (i.e., were loss to follow up from the study). Adjusted models controlled for the effects of age and marital status. A total of 4,237 ART clients were screened and 484 were eligible and enrolled (77% female) between March 28, 2018 and January 5, 2020. A total of 365 participants completed an endline survey (257/34 index HIVST arm; 107/13 PRS arm) and were included in the final analysis (78% female). Testing coverage among sexual partners was 71% (183/257) in the index HIVST arm and 25% (27/107) in the PRS arm (aRR: 2·77, 95% CI [2·56 to 3·00], p ≤ 0.001). Reported HIV positivity rates did not significantly differ by arm (16% (30/183) in HIVST versus 15% (4/27) in PRS; p = 0.99). ART initiation at 12 months was 47% (14/30) in HIVST versus 75% (3/4) in PRS arms; however, index HIVST still resulted in a 94% increase in the proportion of all partners initiating ART due to higher HIV testing rates in the HIVST arm (5% partners initiated ART in HVIST versus 3% in PRS). Adverse events including IPV and termination of the relationship did not vary by arm (IPV: 3/257 index HIVST versus 4/10 PRS; p = 0.57). Limitations include reliance on secondary report by ART clients, potential social desirability bias, and not powered for sex disaggregated analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Index HIVST significantly increased HIV testing and the absolute number of partners initiating ART in Malawi, without increased risk of adverse events. Additional research is needed to improve linkage to HIV treatment services after HIVST use. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03271307, and Pan African Clinical Trials, PACTR201711002697316.

The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting.

BACKGROUND: The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. METHODS: Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. RESULTS: Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. CONCLUSION: The SACMC's models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout.

Health Outcomes and Cost-effectiveness of Monoclonal SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies as Pre-exposure Prophylaxis.

Importance: Pre-exposure prophylaxis with neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs PrEP) prevents infection and reduces hospitalizations and the duration thereof for COVID-19 and death among high-risk individuals. However, reduced effectiveness due to a changing SARS-CoV-2 viral landscape and high drug prices remain substantial implementation barriers. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of mAbs PrEP as COVID-19 PrEP. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this economic evaluation, a decision analytic model was developed and parameterized with health care outcome and utilization data from individuals with high risk for COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 infection probability, mAbs PrEP effectiveness, and drug pricing were varied. All costs were collected from a third-party payer perspective. Data were analyzed from September 2021 to December 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Health care outcomes including new SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalization, and deaths. The cost per death averted and cost-effectiveness ratios using a threshold for prevention interventions of $22 000 or less per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results: The clinical cohort consisted of 636 individuals with COVID-19 (mean [SD] age 63 [18] years; 341 [54%] male). Most individuals were at high risk for severe COVID-19, including 137 (21%) with a body mass index of 30 or higher, 60 (9.4%) with hematological malignant neoplasm, 108 (17%) post-transplantation, and 152 (23.9%) who used immunosuppressive medication before COVID-19. Within the context of a high (18%) SARS-CoV-2 infection probability and low (25%) effectiveness the model calculated a short-term reduction of 42% ward admissions, 31% intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and 34% deaths. Cost-saving scenarios were obtained with drug prices of $275 and 75% or higher effectiveness. With a 100% effectiveness mAbs PrEP can reduce ward admissions by 70%, ICU admissions by 97%, and deaths by 92%. Drug prices, however, need to reduce to $550 for cost-effectiveness ratios less than $22 000 per QALY gained per death averted and to $2200 for ratios between $22 000 and $88 000. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, use of mAbs PrEP for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections was cost-saving at the beginning of an epidemic wave (high infection probability) with 75% or higher effectiveness and drug price of $275. These results are timely and relevant for decision-makers involved in mAbs PrEP implementation. When newer mAbs PrEP combinations become available, guidance on implementation should be formulated ensuring a fast rollout. Nevertheless, advocacy for mAbs PrEP use and critical discussion on drug prices are necessary to ensuring cost-effectiveness for different epidemic settings.

Identifying efficient linkage strategies for men (IDEaL): a study protocol for an individually randomised control trial.

INTRODUCTION: Men in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely than women to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) and more likely to have longer cycles of disengagement from ART programmes. Treatment interventions that meet the unique needs of men are needed, but they must be scalable. We will test the impact of various interventions on 6-month retention in ART programmes among men living with HIV who are not currently engaged in care (never initiated ART and ART clients with treatment interruption). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a programmatic, individually randomised, non-blinded, controlled trial. 'Non-engaged' men will be randomised 1:1:1 to either a low-intensity, high-intensity or stepped arm. The low-intensity intervention includes one-time male-specific counseling+facility navigation only. The high-intensity intervention offers immediate outside-facility ART initiation+male-specific counselling+facility navigation for follow-up ART visits. In the stepped arm, intervention activities build in intensity over time for those who do not re-engage in care with the following steps: (1) one-time male-specific counselling+facility navigation→(2) ongoing male mentorship+facility navigation→(3) outside-facility ART initiation+male-specific counselling+facility navigation for follow-up ART visits. Our primary outcome is 6-month retention in care. Secondary outcomes include cost-effectiveness and rates of adverse events. The primary analysis will be intention to treat with all eligible men in the denominator and all men retained in care at 6 months in the numerator. The proportions achieving the primary outcome will be compared with a risk ratio, corresponding 95% CI and p value computed using binomial regression accounting for clustering at facility level. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Institutional Review Board of the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Health Sciences Research Council in Malawi have approved the trial protocol. Findings will be disseminated rapidly in national and international forums and in peer-reviewed journals and are expected to provide urgently needed information to other countries and donors. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05137210. DATE AND VERSION: 5 May 2023; version 3.

A modelling framework for translating discrete choice experiment results into cost-effectiveness estimates: an application to designing tailored and scalable HIV and contraceptive services for adolescents in Gauteng, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South African youth and adolescents face a high burden of (Sexually Transmitted Infections) STIs, HIV and unintended pregnancies, but uptake of services remains low. To address this, tailored and scalable interventions are urgently needed. We developed a framework to fill the gap and translate the impact of facility-level attributes into a cost-effectiveness analysis for increasing HIV/contraceptive service uptake in adolescents using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). METHODS: We used a DCE (n = 805) conducted in Gauteng, South Africa, which found that staff attitude, confidentiality, Wi-Fi, subsidized food, afternoon hours and youth-only services were preferred attributes of health services. Based on this, we simulated the uptake of services adapted for these preferences. We divided preferences into modifiable attributes that could readily be adapted (e.g. Wi-Fi), and challenging to modify (more nuanced attributes that are more challenging to cost and evaluate): staff attitude and estimated the incremental change in the uptake of services using adapted services. Costs for modifiable preferences were estimated using data from two clinics in South Africa (2019 US$). We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for additional adolescents using services of 15 intervention combinations, and report the results of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier. RESULTS: Greatest projected impact on uptake was from friendly and confidential services, both of which were considered challenging to modify (18.5% 95% CI: 13.0%-24.0%; 8.4% 95% CI: 3.0%-14.0%, respectively). Modifiable factors on their own resulted in only small increases in expected uptake. (Food: 2.3% 95% CI: 4.0%-9.00%; Wi-Fi: 3.0% 95% CI: -4.0% to 10.0%; Youth-only services: 0.3% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%; Afternoon services: 0.8% 95% CI: -6.0% to 7.0%). The order of interventions on the cost-effectiveness frontier are Wi-Fi and youth-only services (ICER US$7.01-US$9.78 per additional adolescent utilizing HIV and contraceptive services), Wi-Fi, youth-only services and food (ICER US$9.32-US$10.45), followed by Wi-Fi, youth-only services and extended afternoon hours (ICER US$14.46-US$43.63). CONCLUSIONS: Combining DCE results and costing analyses within a modelling framework provides an innovative way to inform decisions on effective resource utilization. Modifiable preferences, such as Wi-Fi provision, youth-only services and subsidized food, have the potential to cost-effectively increase the proportion of adolescents accessing HIV and contraceptive services.

Differential in-hospital mortality and intensive care treatment over time: Informing hospital pathways for modelling COVID-19 in South Africa.

There are limited published data within sub-Saharan Africa describing hospital pathways of COVID-19 patients hospitalized. These data are crucial for the parameterisation of epidemiological and cost models, and for planning purposes for the region. We evaluated COVID-19 hospital admissions from the South African national hospital surveillance system (DATCOV) during the first three COVID-19 waves between May 2020 and August 2021. We describe probabilities and admission into intensive care units (ICU), mechanical ventilation, death, and lengths of stay (LOS) in non-ICU and ICU care in public and private sectors. A log-binomial model was used to quantify mortality risk, ICU treatment and mechanical ventilation between time periods, adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, health sector and province. There were 342,700 COVID-19-related hospital admissions during the study period. Risk of ICU admission was 16% lower during wave periods (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 0.84 [0.82-0.86]) compared to between-wave periods. Mechanical ventilation was more likely during a wave overall (aRR 1.18 [1.13-1.23]), but patterns between waves were inconsistent, while mortality risk in non-ICU and ICU were 39% (aRR 1.39 [1.35-1.43]) and 31% (aRR 1.31 [1.27-1.36]) higher during a wave, compared to between-wave periods, respectively. If patients had had the same probability of death during waves vs between-wave periods, we estimated approximately 24% [19%-30%] of deaths (19,600 [15,200-24,000]) would not have occurred over the study period. LOS differed by age (older patients stayed longer), ward type (ICU stays were longer than non-ICU) and death/recovery outcome (time to death was shorter in non-ICU); however, LOS remained similar between time periods. Healthcare capacity constraints as inferred by wave period have a large impact on in-hospital mortality. It is crucial for modelling health systems strain and budgets to consider how input parameters related to hospitalisation change during and between waves, especially in settings with severely constrained resources.

Achieving HIV Epidemic Control and Improving Maternal Healthcare Services with Community-Based HIV Service Delivery in Zambia: Mixed-Methods Assessment of the SMACHT Project.

Novel community-based approaches are needed to achieve and sustain HIV epidemic control in Zambia. Under the Stop Mother and Child HIV Transmission (SMACHT) project, the Community HIV Epidemic Control (CHEC) differentiated service delivery model used community health workers to support HIV testing, ART linkage, viral suppression, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). A multi-methods assessment included programmatic data analysis from April 2015 to September 2020, and qualitative interviews from February to March 2020. CHEC provided HIV testing services to 1,379,387 clients; 46,138 were newly identified as HIV-positive (3.3% yield), with 41,366 (90%) linked to ART. By 2020, 91% (60,694/66,841) of clients on ART were virally suppressed. Qualitatively, healthcare workers and clients benefitted from CHEC, with provision of confidential services, health facility decongestion, and increased HIV care uptake and retention. Community-based models can increase uptake of HIV testing and linkage to care, and help achieve epidemic control and elimination of MTCT.

Addressing the Need for a Preexposure Prophylaxis Monitoring and Evaluation Implementation Guide: Experience From Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The HIV care continuum comprises well-defined steps and indicators. In contrast, indicators along the preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) cascade are still in the early stages of implementation. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of PrEP services is critical to optimizing PrEP uptake and adherence during periods of HIV risk. We provide an overview of global indicators for PrEP, describe the development process and outcomes of Zambia's 2022 National Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Program Monitoring & Evaluation Implementation Guide, and discuss the guide's implications for other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. NATIONAL M&E GUIDE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS: During the scale-up of PrEP, the Zambia Ministry of Health (MOH) and the National HIV/AIDS/STI/TB Council recognized the need for a national unified monitoring system to guide the effective implementation of PrEP services. Stakeholders from the MOH, civil society, professional organizations, funding agencies, and implementing partners developed the National Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Program Monitoring & Evaluation Implementation Guide. This guide is aligned with the existing global indicators from the World Health Organization and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and adapted to the country's needs, context, and health information systems. Zambia's experience in developing the guide has highlighted the importance of strengthening client-level monitoring systems for HIV prevention, ensuring flexibility of the PrEP monitoring system to accommodate PrEP delivery modalities and differentiated service delivery models, and training health workers to enhance PrEP services and deliver care PrEP services along the continuum to prevent HIV acquisition effectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using a collaborative and consensus-based approach, Zambia developed its first national PrEP M&E implementation guide to provide standardized guidelines for optimizing the delivery, monitoring, and evaluation of PrEP service delivery. Zambia's experience can inform other countries in sub-Saharan Africa as they develop national M&E implementation approaches for PrEP.

The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa.

In March 2020 the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium was formed to support government planning for COVID-19 cases and related healthcare. Models were developed jointly by local disease modelling groups to estimate cases, resource needs and deaths due to COVID-19. The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) while initially developed as a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-Cov-2 transmission in the nine provinces of South Africa, was adapted several times over the course of the first wave of infection in response to emerging local data and changing needs of government. By the end of the first wave, the NCEM had developed into a stochastic, spatially-explicit compartmental transmission model to estimate the total and reported incidence of COVID-19 across the 52 districts of South Africa. The model adopted a generalised Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed structure that accounted for the clinical profile of SARS-COV-2 (asymptomatic, mild, severe and critical cases) and avenues of treatment access (outpatient, and hospitalisation in non-ICU and ICU wards). Between end-March and early September 2020, the model was updated 11 times with four key releases to generate new sets of projections and scenario analyses to be shared with planners in the national and provincial Departments of Health, the National Treasury and other partners. Updates to model structure included finer spatial granularity, limited access to treatment, and the inclusion of behavioural heterogeneity in relation to the adoption of Public Health and Social Measures. These updates were made in response to local data and knowledge and the changing needs of the planners. The NCEM attempted to incorporate a high level of local data to contextualise the model appropriately to address South Africa's population and health system characteristics that played a vital role in producing and updating estimates of resource needs, demonstrating the importance of harnessing and developing local modelling capacity.

Economic evaluation of a cluster randomized, non-inferiority trial of differentiated service delivery models of HIV treatment in Zimbabwe.

About 85% of Zimbabwe's >1.4 million people living with HIV are on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Further expansion of its treatment program will require more efficient use of existing resources. Two promising strategies for reducing resource utilization per patient are multi-month medication dispensing and community-based service delivery. We evaluated the costs to providers and patients of community-based, multi-month ART delivery models in Zimbabwe. We used resource and outcome data from a cluster-randomized non-inferiority trial of three differentiated service delivery (DSD) models targeted to patients stable on ART: 3-month facility-based care (3MF), community ART refill groups (CAGs) with 3-month dispensing (3MC), and CAGs with 6-month dispensing (6MC). Using local unit costs, we estimated the annual cost in 2020 USD of providing HIV treatment per patient from the provider and patient perspectives. In the trial, retention at 12 months was 93.0% in the 3MF, 94.8% in the 3MC, and 95.5% in the 6MC arms. The total average annual cost of HIV treatment per patient was $187 (standard deviation $39), $178 ($30), and $167 ($39) in each of the three arms, respectively. The annual cost/patient was dominated by ART medications (79% in 3MF, 87% in 3MC; 92% in 6MC), followed by facility visits (12%, 5%, 5%, respectively) and viral load (8%, 8%, 2%, respectively). When costs were stratified by district, DSD models cost slightly less, with 6MC the least expensive in all districts. Savings were driven by differences in the number of facility visits made/year, as expected, and low uptake of annual viral load tests in the 6-month arm. The total annual cost to patients to obtain HIV care was $10.03 ($2) in the 3MF arm, $5.12 ($0.41) in the 3MC arm, and $4.40 ($0.39) in the 6MF arm. For stable ART patients in Zimbabwe, 3- and 6-month community-based multi-month dispensing models cost less for both providers and patients than 3-month facility-based care and had non-inferior outcomes.

Attrition from HIV treatment after enrollment in a differentiated service delivery model: A cohort analysis of routine care in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Many sub-Saharan Africa countries are scaling up differentiated service delivery (DSD) models for HIV treatment to increase access and remove barriers to care. We assessed factors associated with attrition after DSD model enrollment in Zambia, focusing on patient-level characteristics. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective record review using electronic medical records (EMR) of adults (≥15 years) initiated on antiretroviral (ART) between 01 January 2018 and 30 November 2021. Attrition was defined as lost to follow-up (LTFU) or died by November 30, 2021. We categorized DSD models into eight groups: fast-track, adherence groups, community pick-up points, home ART delivery, extended facility hours, facility multi-month dispensing (MMD, 4-6-month ART dispensing), frequent refill care (facility 1-2 month dispensing), and conventional care (facility 3 month dispensing, reference group). We used Fine and Gray competing risk regression to assess patient-level factors associated with attrition, stratified by sex and rural/urban setting. RESULTS: Of 547,281 eligible patients, 68% (n = 372,409) enrolled in DSD models, most commonly facility MMD (n = 306,430, 82%), frequent refill care (n = 47,142, 13%), and fast track (n = 14,433, 4%), with <2% enrolled in the other DSD groups. Retention was higher in nearly all DSD models for all dispensing intervals, compared to the reference group, except fast track for the ≤2 month dispensing group. Retention benefits were greatest for patients in the extended clinic hours group and least for fast track dispensing. CONCLUSION: Although retention in HIV treatment differed by DSD type, dispensing interval, and patient characteristics, nearly all DSD models out-performed conventional care. Understanding the factors that influence the retention of patients in DSD models could provide an important step towards improving DSD implementation.

Characteristics and short- and long-term direct medical costs among adults with timely and delayed presentation for HIV care in the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: In Europe, half of people living with HIV (PLWH) present late to care, with associated higher morbidity and mortality. This study aims to assess short- and long-term costs of HIV-care based on time of presentation and identify other factors contributing to higher costs in the first and fifth year after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We included ATHENA cohort data which prospectively includes 98% of PLWH in the Netherlands. PLWH who initiated ART in 2013 were included and followed over five years. PLWH were divided in three categories based on CD4 cell-count at time of ART initiation: timely presentation (CD4>350cells/µL), late presentation (CD4 200-350cells/µL or >350cells/µL with AIDS-defining illness) and very late presentation (CD4<200cells/µL). The total HIV-care cost was calculated distinguishing ART medication and non-ART medication costs (hospitalization, outpatient clinic visits, co-medications, and HIV-laboratory tests). RESULTS: From 1,296 PLWH, 273 (21%) presented late and 179 (14%) very late. Nearly half of those who entered HIV-care in a very late stage were of non-Dutch origin, with 21% originating from sub-Saharan Africa. The mean cost per patient in the first year was €12,902 (SD€11,098), of which about two-thirds due to ART (€8,250 (SD€3,142)). ART costs in the first and fifth year were comparable regardless of time of presentation. During the first year on treatment, non-ART medication costs were substantially higher among those with late presentation (€4,749 (SD€8,009)) and very late presentation (€15,886 (SD€ 21,834)), compared with timely presentation (€2,407(SD€4,511)). Higher non-ART costs were attributable to hospitalization and co-medication. The total non-ART costs incurred across five years on treatment were 56% and 246% higher for late and very late presentation respectively as compared to timely presentation. CONCLUSION: Very late presentation is associated with substantial costs, with non-ART costs nearly seven times higher than for those presenting timely. Hospitalization and co-medication costs are likely to continue to drive higher costs for individuals with late presentation into the future. Programs that identify individuals earlier will therefore likely provide significant short- and long-term health cost savings.

SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing rates determine the sensitivity of genomic surveillance programs.

The first step in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is testing to identify people who are infected. However, global testing rates are falling as we emerge from the acute health emergency and remain low in many low- and middle-income countries (mean = 27 tests per 100,000 people per day). We simulated COVID-19 epidemics in a prototypical low- and middle-income country to investigate how testing rates, sampling strategies and sequencing proportions jointly impact surveillance outcomes, and showed that low testing rates and spatiotemporal biases delay time to detection of new variants by weeks to months and can lead to unreliable estimates of variant prevalence, even when the proportion of samples sequenced is increased. Accordingly, investments in wider access to diagnostics to support testing rates of approximately 100 tests per 100,000 people per day could enable more timely detection of new variants and reliable estimates of variant prevalence. The performance of global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs is fundamentally limited by access to diagnostic testing.