Local patterns of spread of influenza A H3N2 virus in coastal Kenya over a 1-year period revealed through virus sequence data.

The patterns of spread of influenza A viruses in local populations in tropical and sub-tropical regions are unclear due to sparsity of representative spatiotemporal sequence data. We sequenced and analyzed 58 influenza A(H3N2) virus genomes sampled between December 2015 and December 2016 from nine health facilities within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), a predominantly rural region, covering approximately 891 km2 along the Kenyan coastline. The genomes were compared with 1571 contemporaneous global sequences from 75 countries. We observed at least five independent introductions of A(H3N2) viruses into the region during the one-year period, with the importations originating from Africa, Europe, and North America. We also inferred 23 virus location transition events between the nine facilities included in the study. International virus imports into the study area were captured at the facilities of Chasimba, Matsangoni, Mtondia, and Mavueni, while all four exports from the region were captured from the Chasimba facility, all occurring to Africa destinations. A strong spatial clustering of virus strains at all locations was observed associated with local evolution. Our study shows that influenza A(H3N2) virus epidemics in local populations appear to be characterized by limited introductions followed by significant local spread and evolution. Knowledge of the viral lineages that circulate within specific populations in understudied tropical and subtropical regions is required to understand the full diversity and global ecology of influenza viruses and to inform vaccination strategies within these populations.

The cost of care for children hospitalized with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated lower respiratory infection in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the main causes of hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection in children under five years of age globally. Maternal vaccines and monoclonal antibodies for RSV prevention among infants are approved for use in high income countries. However, data are limited on the economic burden of RSV disease from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) to inform decision making on prioritization and introduction of such interventions. This study aimed to estimate household and health system costs associated with childhood RSV in Kenya. METHODS: A structured questionnaire was administered to caregivers of children aged < 5 years admitted to referral hospitals in Kilifi (coastal Kenya) and Siaya (western Kenya) with symptoms of acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) during the 2019-2021 RSV seasons. These children had been enrolled in ongoing in-patient surveillance for respiratory viruses. Household expenditures on direct and indirect medical costs were collected 10 days prior to, during, and two weeks post hospitalization. Aggregated health system costs were acquired from the hospital administration and were included to calculate the cost per episode of hospitalized RSV illness. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 241 and 184 participants from Kilifi and Siaya hospitals, respectively. Out of these, 79 (32.9%) in Kilifi and 21(11.4%) in Siaya, tested positive for RSV infection. The total (health system and household) mean costs per episode of severe RSV illness was USD 329 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 251-408 ) in Kilifi and USD 527 (95% CI: 405- 649) in Siaya. Household costs were USD 67 (95% CI: 54-80) and USD 172 (95% CI: 131- 214) in Kilifi and Siaya, respectively. Mean direct medical costs to the household during hospitalization were USD 11 (95% CI: 10-12) and USD 67 (95% CI: 51-83) among Kilifi and Siaya participants, respectively. Observed costs were lower in Kilifi due to differences in healthcare administration. CONCLUSIONS: RSV-associated disease among young children leads to a substantial economic burden to both families and the health system in Kenya. This burden may differ between Counties in Kenya and similar multi-site studies are advised to support cost-effectiveness analyses.

Assessment of gestational age at antenatal care visits among Kenyan women to inform delivery of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: Maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines that are likely to be implementable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in final stages of clinical trials. Data on the number of women presenting for antenatal care (ANC) per day and proportion attending within the proposed gestational window for vaccine delivery, is a prerequisite to guide development of vaccine vial size and inform vaccine uptake in this setting. Methods: We undertook administrative review and abstraction of ANC attendance records from 2019 registers of 24 selected health facilities, stratified by the level of care, from Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi counties in Kenya. Additional data were obtained from Mother and Child Health (MCH) booklets of women in each of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) areas of Kilifi, Nairobi and Siaya. Data analysis involved descriptive summaries of the number (mean, median) and proportion of women attending ANC within the gestational window period of 28-32 weeks and 24-36 weeks. Results: A total of 62,153 ANC records were abstracted, 33,872 from Kilifi, 19,438 from Siaya and 8,943 from Nairobi Counties. The median (Interquartile range, IQR) number of women attending ANC per day at a gestational age window of 28-32 and 24-36 weeks, respectively, were: 4 (2-6) and 7 (4-12) in dispensaries, 5 (2-9) and 10 (4-19) in health centres and 6 (4-11) and 16 (10-26) in county referral hospitals. In the HDSS areas of Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi, pregnant women attending at least one ANC visit, within a window of 28-32 weeks, were: 77% (360/470), 75% (590/791) and 67% (547/821), respectively. Conclusions: About 70% of pregnant women across three distinct geographical regions in Kenya, attend ANC within 28-32 weeks of gestation. A multidose vial size with about five doses per vial, approximates daily ANC attendance and would not incur possible wastage in similar settings.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Disease and Prevention Products: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Preferences of Kenyan Healthcare Workers in Two Counties in 2021.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among infants under 6 months of age. Yet, in Kenya, little is known about healthcare workers' (HCWs) knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions around RSV disease and the prevention products under development. Between September and October 2021, we conducted a mixed methods cross-sectional survey to assess HCWs' knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of RSV disease and RSV vaccinations in two counties. We enrolled HCWs delivering services directly at maternal and child health (MCH) departments in selected health facilities (frontline HCWs) and health management officers (HMOs). Of the 106 respondents, 94 (88.7%) were frontline HCWs, while 12 were HMOs. Two of the HMOs were members of the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (KENITAG). Of the 104 non-KENITAG HCWs, only 41 (39.4%) had heard about RSV disease, and 38/41 (92.7%) felt that pregnant women should be vaccinated against RSV. Most participants would recommend a single-dose vaccine schedule (n = 62, 58.5%) for maximal adherence and compliance (n = 38/62, 61.3%), single dose/device vaccines (n = 50/86, 58.1%) to prevent wastage and contamination, and maternal vaccination through antenatal care clinics (n = 53, 50%). We found the need for increased knowledge about RSV disease and prevention among Kenyan HCWs.

Estimates of the national burden of respiratory syncytial virus in Kenyan children aged under 5 years, 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the leading childhood causes of viral pneumonia worldwide. Establishing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality is important in informing the development, delivery strategies, and evaluation of interventions. METHODS: Using data collected during 2010-2018 from base regions (population-based surveillance studies in western Kenya and the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance Study), we estimated age-specific rates of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI-defined as hospitalization with cough or difficulty breathing with onset within the past 10 days), and SARI-associated deaths. We extrapolated the rates from the base regions to other regions of Kenya, while adjusting for risk factors of ARI and healthcare seeking behavior, and finally applied the proportions of RSV-positive cases identified from various sentinel and study facilities to the rates to obtain regional age-specific rates of RSV-associated outpatient and non-medically attended ARI and hospitalized SARI and severe ARI that was not hospitalized (non-hospitalized SARI). We applied age-specific RSV case fatality ratios to SARI to obtain estimates of RSV-associated in- and out-of-hospital deaths. RESULTS: Among Kenyan children aged < 5 years, the estimated annual incidence of outpatient and non-medically attended RSV-associated ARI was 206 (95% credible interval, CI; 186-229) and 226 (95% CI; 204-252) per 1000 children, respectively. The estimated annual rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized RSV-associated SARI were 349 (95% CI; 303-404) and 1077 (95% CI; 934-1247) per 100,000 children respectively. The estimated annual number of in- and out-of-hospital deaths associated with RSV infection in Kenya were 539 (95% CI; 420-779) and 1921 (95% CI; 1495-2774), respectively. Children aged < 6 months had the highest burden of RSV-associated severe disease: 2075 (95% CI; 1818-2394) and 44 (95% CI 25-71) cases per 100,000 children for hospitalized SARI and in-hospital deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a substantial disease burden due to RSV infection, particularly among younger children. Prioritizing development and use of maternal vaccines and affordable long-lasting monoclonal antibodies could help reduce this burden.

Serum immunoglobulin G and mucosal immunoglobulin A antibodies from prepandemic samples collected in Kilifi, Kenya, neutralize SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.

OBJECTIVES: Many regions of Africa have experienced lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality than Europe. Pre-existing humoral responses to endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) may cross-protect against SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the neutralizing capacity of SARS-CoV-2 spike reactive and nonreactive immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgA antibodies in prepandemic samples. METHODS: To investigate the presence of pre-existing immunity, we performed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using spike antigens from reference SARS-CoV-2, HCoV HKU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E using prepandemic samples from Kilifi in coastal Kenya. In addition, we performed neutralization assays using pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 to determine the functionality of the identified reactive antibodies. RESULTS: We demonstrate the presence of HCoV serum IgG and mucosal IgA antibodies, which cross-react with the SARS-CoV-2 spike. We show pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 neutralization by prepandemic serum, with a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 251, which is 10-fold less than that of the pooled convalescent sera from patients with COVID-19 but still within predicted protection levels. The prepandemic naso-oropharyngeal fluid neutralized pseudo-SARS-CoV-2 at a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 5.9 in the neutralization assay. CONCLUSION: Our data provide evidence for pre-existing functional humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 in Kilifi, coastal Kenya and adds to data showing pre-existing immunity for COVID-19 from other regions.

Efficiency of transplacental transfer of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) specific antibodies among pregnant women in Kenya.

Background: Maternal immunisation to boost respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibodies in pregnant women, is a strategy being considered to enhance infant protection from severe RSV associated disease. However, little is known about the efficiency of transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies in a setting with a high burden of malaria and HIV, to guide the implementation of such a vaccination program. Methods: Using a plaque reduction neutralization assay, we screened 400 pairs of cord and maternal serum specimens from pregnant women for RSV-specific antibodies. Participants were pregnant women of two surveillance cohorts: 200 participants from a hospital cohort in Kilifi, Coastal Kenya and 200 participants from a surveillance cohort in Siaya, Western Kenya. Transplacental transfer efficiency was determined by the cord to maternal transfer ratio (CMTR). Logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of impaired transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies. Results: A total of 800 samples were screened from the 400 participants. At enrollment the median age was 25 years (Interquartile range (IQR): 21-31). Overall, transplacental transfer was efficient and did not differ between Kilifi and Siaya cohort (1.02 vs. 1.02; p=0.946) but was significantly reduced among HIV-infected mothers compared to HIV-uninfected mothers (mean CMTR: 0.98 vs 1.03; p=0.015). Prematurity <33 weeks gestation (Odds ratio [OR]: 0.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.85; p=0.028), low birth weight <2.5 kgs (OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.07-0.94; p=0.041) and HIV infection (OR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.23-0.98; p=0.045) reduced efficiency of transplacental transfer among these women. Conclusions: Transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies among pregnant women in Kenya is efficient. A consideration to integrate other preventive interventions with maternal RSV vaccination targeting infants born premature (<33 weeks gestation), with low birth weight <2.5 kgs, or HIV-infected mothers is likely to improve vaccine outcomes in this setting.

Implications of gestational age at antenatal care attendance on the successful implementation of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine program in coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Maternal immunisation to boost respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) specific antibodies in pregnant women is a strategy to enhance infant protection. The timing of maternal vaccination during pregnancy may be critical for its effectiveness. However, Kenya has no documented published data on gestational age distribution of pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC), or the proportion of women attending ANC during the proposed window period for vaccination, to inform appropriate timing for delivery or estimate potential uptake of this vaccine. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), coastal Kenya. A simple random sample of 1000 women who had registered pregnant in 2017 to 2018 and with a birth outcome by the time of data collection was taken. The selected women were followed at their homes, and individually written informed consent was obtained. Records of their antenatal attendance during pregnancy were abstracted from their ANC booklet. The proportion of all pregnant women from KHDSS (55%) who attended for one or more ANC in 2018 was used to estimate vaccine coverage. RESULTS: Of the 1000 women selected, 935 were traced with 607/935 (64.9%) available for interview, among whom 470/607 (77.4%) had antenatal care booklets. The median maternal age during pregnancy was 28.6 years. The median (interquartile range) gestational age in weeks at the first to fifth ANC attendance was 26 (21-28), 29 (26-32), 32 (28-34), 34 (32-36) and 36 (34-38), respectively. The proportion of women attending for ANC during a gestational age window for vaccination of 28-32 weeks (recommended), 26-33 weeks and 24-36 weeks was 76.6% (360/470), 84.5% (397/470) and 96.2% (452/470), respectively. Estimated vaccine coverage was 42.1, 46.5 and 52.9% within the narrow, wide and wider gestational age windows, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a random sample of pregnant women from Kilifi HDSS, Coastal Kenya with card-confirmed ANC clinic attendance, 76.6% would be reached for maternal RSV vaccination within the gestational age window of 28-32 weeks. Widening the vaccination window (26-33 weeks) or (24-36 weeks) would not dramatically increase vaccine coverage and would require consideration of antibody kinetics data that could affect vaccine efficacy.

Genomic epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus group B in Kilifi, Kenya, 2015-17.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulates worldwide, occurring seasonally in communities, and is a leading cause of acute respiratory illness in young children. There is paucity of genomic data from purposively sampled populations by which to investigate evolutionary dynamics and transmission patterns of RSV. Here we present an analysis of 295 RSV group B (RSVB) genomes from Kilifi, coastal Kenya, sampled from individuals seeking outpatient care in nine health facilities across a defined geographical area (∼890 km2), over two RSV epidemics between 2015 and 2017. RSVB diversity was characterized by multiple virus introductions into the area and co-circulation of distinct genetic clusters, which transmitted and diversified locally with varying frequency. Increase in relative genetic diversity paralleled seasonal virus incidence. Importantly, we identified a cluster of viruses that emerged in the 2016/17 epidemic, carrying distinct amino-acid signatures including a novel nonsynonymous change (K68Q) in antigenic site ∅ in the Fusion protein. RSVB diversity was additionally marked by signature nonsynonymous substitutions that were unique to particular genomic clusters, some under diversifying selection. Our findings provide insights into recent evolutionary and epidemiological behaviors of RSVB, and highlight possible emergence of a novel antigenic variant, which has implications on current prophylactic strategies in development.

Genetic characterization of influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulating in coastal Kenya, 2009-2017.

BACKGROUND: Influenza viruses evolve rapidly and undergo immune driven selection, especially in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein. We report amino acid changes affecting antigenic epitopes and receptor-binding sites of A(H3N2) viruses circulating in Kilifi, Kenya, from 2009 to 2017. METHODS: Next-generation sequencing (NGS) was used to generate A(H3N2) virus genomic data from influenza-positive specimens collected from hospital admissions and health facility outpatients presenting with acute respiratory illness to health facilities within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Full-length HA sequences were utilized to characterize A(H3N2) virus genetic and antigenic changes. RESULTS: From 186 (90 inpatient and 96 outpatient) influenza A virus-positive specimens processed, 101 A(H3N2) virus whole genomes were obtained. Among viruses identified in inpatient specimens from 2009 to 2015, divergence of circulating A(H3N2) viruses from the vaccine strains A/Perth/16/2009, A/Texas/50/2012, and A/Switzerland/9715293/2013 formed 6 genetic clades (A/Victoria/208/2009-like, 3B, 3C, 3C.2a, 4, and 7). Among viruses identified in outpatient specimens from 2015 to 2017, divergence of circulating A(H3N2) viruses from vaccine strain A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 formed clade 3C.2a, subclades 3C.2a2 and 3C.2a3, and subgroup 3C.2a1b. Several amino acid substitutions were associated with the continued genetic evolution of A(H3N2) strains in circulation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest continuing evolution of currently circulating A(H3N2) viruses in Kilifi, coastal Kenya and suggest the need for continuous genetic and antigenic viral surveillance of circulating seasonal influenza viruses with broad geographic representation to facilitate prompt and efficient selection of influenza strains for inclusion in future influenza vaccines.

An optimization of four SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR assays in a Kenyan laboratory to support the national COVID-19 rapid response teams.

Background: The global COVID-19 outbreak relies on a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) for the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), to facilitate the roll-out of patient care and infection control measures. There are several qRT-PCR assays with little evidence on their comparability. We report alterations to the developers' recommendations to sustain the testing capability in our setting, where the supply of testing reagents is limited. Methods: Standards generated from a serially-diluted positive control and previously identified positive/negative samples were used to determine the optimal volumes of the qRT-PCR reagents and to evaluate the validity and performance of four assays: Charité Berlin and European Virus Archive - GLOBAL (EVAg) primer-probe sets, and DAAN and Beijing Genomics Institute (BGI) premixed commercial kits. A multiplex and singleplex RT-PCR kit was used with the two primer-probe sets and the recommended assay volumes of the two premixed kits were altered. Results: In comparison to the multiplex RT-PCR kit, the singleplex RT-PCR kit combined with the primer-probe sets yielded consistent cycle threshold (Ct) values across the different titrations tested. The DAAN premixed kit produced comparable Ct values across the titrations, while the BGI kit showed incomparable Ct values and inconsistent results between batches using the manufacturer's recommended volumes. Conclusion: We achieved a 2.5-fold and 4-fold increase in the number of tests/kit for the premixed kits and the primer-probe sets, respectively. The primer-probe set assays were reliable and consistent, and we preferred a combination of an EVAg and a Berlin target. Any inconclusive result was repeated by different individuals following the same protocol. DAAN was a consistent and reliable assay even at lower concentrations from the stated recommendations. BGI in contrast, required dilution to improve its performance and was hence an assay that was used in combination with EVAg or Berlin targets.

Epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza B virus in coastal Kenya as revealed by genomic analysis of strains sampled over a single season.

The genomic epidemiology of influenza B virus (IBV) remains understudied in Africa despite significance to design of effective local and global control strategies. We undertook surveillance throughout 2016 in coastal Kenya, recruiting individuals presenting with acute respiratory illness at nine outpatient health facilities (any age) or admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital (<5 years old). Whole genomes were sequenced for a selected 111 positives; 94 (84.7%) of B/Victoria lineage and 17 (15.3%) of B/Yamagata lineage. Inter-lineage reassortment was detected in ten viruses; nine with B/Yamagata backbone but B/Victoria NA and NP segments and one with a B/Victoria backbone but B/Yamagata PB2, PB1, PA, and MP segments. Five phylogenomic clusters were identified among the sequenced viruses; (i), pure B/Victoria clade 1A (n = 93, 83.8%), (ii), reassortant B/Victoria clade 1A (n = 1, 0.9%), (iii), pure B/Yamagata clade 2 (n = 2, 1.8%), (iv), pure B/Yamagata clade 3 (n = 6, 5.4%), and (v), reassortant B/Yamagata clade 3 (n = 9, 8.1%). Using divergence dates and clustering patterns in the presence of global background sequences, we counted up to twenty-nine independent IBV strain introductions into the study area (∼900 km2) in 2016. Local viruses, including the reassortant B/Yamagata strains, clustered closely with viruses from neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda. Our study demonstrated that genomic analysis provides a clearer picture of locally circulating IBV diversity. The high number of IBV introductions highlights the challenge in controlling local influenza epidemics by targeted approaches, for example, sub-population vaccination or patient quarantine. The finding of divergent IBV strains co-circulating within a single season emphasises why broad immunity vaccines are the most ideal for influenza control in Kenya.

Agreement between ELISA and plaque reduction neutralisation assay in Detection of respiratory syncytial virus specific antibodies in a birth Cohort from Kilifi, coastal Kenya.

Background: Severe disease associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection occurs predominantly among infants under 6 months of age. Vaccines for prevention are in clinical development. Assessment of the vaccine effectiveness in large epidemiological studies requires serological assays which are rapid, economical and standardised between laboratories. The objective of this study was to assess the agreement between two enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and the plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT) in quantifying RSV specific antibodies. Methods: Archived sera from 99 participants of the Kilifi Birth Cohort (KBC) study (conducted 2002-2007) were screened for RSV antibodies using 3 methods: ELISA using crude RSV lysate as antigen, a commercial RSV immunoglobulin G (IgG) ELISA kit from IBL International GmbH, and PRNT. Pearson correlation, Bland-Altman plots and regression methods were used in analysis. Results: There was high positive correlation between the IBL RSV IgG ELISA and PRNT antibodies (Pearson r=0.75), and moderate positive correlation between the crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA and PRNT antibodies (r= 0.61). Crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA showed a wider 95% limit of agreement (-1.866, 6.157) with PRNT compared to the IBL RSV IgG ELISA (1.392, 7.595). Mean PRNT titres were estimated within a width of 4.8 log 2PRNT and 5.6 log 2PRNT at 95% prediction interval by IBL RSV IgG and crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA, respectively. Conclusion: Although, the IBL RSV IgG ELISA is observed to provide a reasonable correlate for PRNT assay in detecting RSV specific antibodies, it does not provide an accurate prediction for neutralizing antibody levels. An RSV neutralising antibody level is likely to fall within 2.4 fold higher and 2.4 fold lower than the true value if IBL RSV IgG ELISA is used to replace PRNT assay. The utility of an ELISA assay in vaccine studies should be assessed independent of the PRNT method.

Congenital microcephaly unrelated to flavivirus exposure in coastal Kenya.

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) was first discovered in East Africa in 1947.  ZIKV has caused microcephaly in the Americas, but it is not known whether ZIKV is a cause of microcephaly in East Africa. Methods: We used surveillance data from 11,061 live births at Kilifi County Hospital in coastal Kenya between January 2012 and October 2016 to identify microcephaly cases and conducted a nested case-control study to determine risk factors for microcephaly. Gestational age at birth was estimated based on antenatal ultrasound scanning ('Scanned cohort') or last menstrual period ('LMP cohort', including births ≥37 weeks' gestation only). Controls were newborns with head circumference Z scores between >-2 and ≤2 SD that were compared to microcephaly cases in relation to ZIKV exposure and other maternal and newborn factors. Results: Of the 11,061 newborns, 214 (1.9%, 95%CI 1.69, 2.21) had microcephaly. Microcephaly prevalence was 1.0% (95%CI 0.64, 1.70, n=1529) and 2.1% (95%CI 1.81, 2.38, n=9532) in the scanned and LMP cohorts, respectively. After excluding babies <2500 g (n=1199) in the LMP cohort the prevalence was 1.1% (95%CI 0.93, 1.39). Microcephaly showed an association with being born small for gestational age (p<0.001) but not with ZIKV neutralising antibodies (p=0.6) or anti-ZIKV NS1 IgM response (p=0.9). No samples had a ZIKV neutralising antibody titre that was at least fourfold higher than the corresponding dengue virus (DENV) titre. No ZIKV or other flavivirus RNA was detected in cord blood from cases or controls. Conclusions: Microcephaly was prevalent in coastal Kenya, but does not appear to be related to ZIKV exposure; the ZIKV response observed in our study population was largely due to cross-reactive responses to DENV or other related flaviviruses. Further research into potential causes and the clinical consequences of microcephaly in this population is urgently needed.

Human rhinovirus spatial-temporal epidemiology in rural coastal Kenya, 2015-2016, observed through outpatient surveillance.

Background: Human rhinovirus (HRV) is the predominant cause of upper respiratory tract infections, resulting in a significant public health burden. The virus circulates as many different types (168), each generating strong homologous, but weak heterotypic, immunity. The influence of these features on transmission patterns of HRV in the community is understudied. Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from patients with symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI) at nine out-patient facilities across a Health and Demographic Surveillance System between December 2015 and November 2016. HRV was diagnosed by real-time RT-PCR, and the VP4/VP2 genomic region of the positive samples sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis was used to determine the HRV types. Classification models and G-test statistic were used to investigate HRV type spatial distribution. Demographic characteristics and clinical features of ARI were also compared. Results: Of 5,744 NPS samples collected, HRV was detected in 1057 (18.4%), of which 817 (77.3%) were successfully sequenced. HRV species A, B and C were identified in 360 (44.1%), 67 (8.2%) and 390 (47.7%) samples, respectively. In total, 87 types were determined: 39, 10 and 38 occurred within species A, B and C, respectively. HRV types presented heterogeneous temporal patterns of persistence. Spatially, identical types occurred over a wide distance at similar times, but there was statistically significant evidence for clustering of types between health facilities in close proximity or linked by major road networks. Conclusion: This study records a high prevalence of HRV in out-patient presentations exhibiting high type diversity. Patterns of occurrence suggest frequent and independent community invasion of different types. Temporal differences of persistence between types may reflect variation in type-specific population immunity. Spatial patterns suggest either rapid spread or multiple invasions of the same type, but evidence of similar types amongst close health facilities, or along road systems, indicate type partitioning structured by local spread.

Defining the vaccination window for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) using age-seroprevalence data for children in Kilifi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of lower respiratory tract disease in early life and a target for vaccine prevention. Data on the age-prevalence of RSV specific antibodies will inform on optimizing vaccine delivery. METHODS: Archived plasma samples were randomly selected within age strata from 960 children less than 145 months of age admitted to Kilifi County Hospital pediatric wards between 2007 and 2010. Samples were tested for antibodies to RSV using crude virus IgG ELISA. Seroprevalence (and 95% confidence intervals) was estimated as the proportion of children with specific antibodies above a defined cut-off level. Nested catalytic models were used to explore different assumptions on antibody dynamics and estimate the rates of decay of RSV specific maternal antibody and acquisition of infection with age, and the average age of infection. RESULTS: RSV specific antibody prevalence was 100% at age 0-<1month, declining rapidly over the first 6 months of life, followed by an increase in the second half of the first year of life and beyond. Seroprevalence was lowest throughout the age range 5-11 months; all children were seropositive beyond 3 years of age. The best fit model to the data yielded estimates for the rate of infection of 0.78/person/year (95% CI 0.65-0.97) and 1.69/person/year (95% CI 1.27-2.04) for ages 0-<1 year and 1-<12 years, respectively. The rate of loss of maternal antibodies was estimated as 2.54/year (95% CI 2.30-2.90), i.e. mean duration 4.7 months. The mean age at primary infection was estimated at 15 months (95% CI 13-18). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of decay of maternal antibody prevalence and subsequent age-acquisition of infection are rapid, and the average age at primary infection early. The vaccination window is narrow, and suggests optimal targeting of vaccine to infants 5 months and above to achieve high seroconversion.

Quantifying maternally derived respiratory syncytial virus specific neutralising antibodies in a birth cohort from coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease occurs predominantly in children under 6 months of age. There is no licensed RSV vaccine. Protection of young infants could be achieved by a maternal vaccine to boost titres of passively transferred protective antibodies. Data on the level and kinetics of functional RSV-specific antibody at birth and over the early infant period would inform vaccine product design. METHODS: From a birth cohort study (2002-2007) in Kilifi, Kenya, 100 participants were randomly selected for whom cord blood and 2 subsequent 3-monthly blood samples within the first year of life, were available. RSV antibodies against the A2 strain of RSV were assayed and recorded as the logarithm (base 2) plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT) titre. Analysis by linear regression accounted for within-person clustering. RESULTS: The geometric mean neutralisation antibody titre was 10.6 (SD: 1.13) at birth with a log-linear decay over the first 6 months of life. The estimated rate of decay was -0.58 (SD: 0.20) log2PRNT titre per month and a half-life of 36 days. There was no significant interaction between cord titre and rate of decay with age. Mean cord titres rose and fell in a pattern temporally tracking community virus transmission. CONCLUSIONS: In this study population, RSV neutralising antibody titres decay approximately two-fold every one month. The rate of decay varies widely by individual but is not related to titre at birth. RSV specific cord titres vary seasonally, presumably due to maternal boosting.

Seroprevalence, predictors and estimated incidence of maternal and neonatal Herpes Simplex Virus type 2 infection in semi-urban women in Kilifi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Herpes Simplex Virus type 2 (HSV-2) has public health importance as a leading cause of genital ulcers, a co-factor in HIV-1 acquisition and transmission and as a cause of neonatal herpes infections. Little is known of its epidemiology and burden in Coastal Kenya. METHODS: We screened plasma samples for HSV-2 infection from 826 women aged 15-34 years who participated in an HIV-1 survey in Kilifi in 2004. The sample comprised 563 women selected randomly from a demographic surveillance system (DSS) and 263 women who presented for voluntary counseling and testing (VCT). Predictors for HSV-2 seropositivity were determined using multivariate logistic regression. The incidence of HSV-2 infection and risk of neonatal herpes were estimated by a simple catalytic model fitted to age-seroprevalence data. RESULTS: HSV-2 prevalence was 32% in the DSS recruits vs. 44% in the VCT recruits (P < 0.001), while, HIV-1 prevalence was 8% in the DSS recruits vs. 12% in the VCT recruits (P = 0.12). Independent risk factors for HSV-2 infection in all women were: older age (30-34 years; odds ratio (OR) 10.5, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.2 - 21.0), recruitment from VCT (OR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1 - 2.1), history of genital ulcers (OR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2 - 2.3) and HIV infection (OR 2.7, 95% CI: 1.6-4.6). Education beyond primary (OR 0.7, 95% CI: 0.5 - 0.9) was inversely associated with HSV-2 infection. In the DSS sample, HSV-2 incidence was estimated at 4 cases (95% CI: 3.3 - 4.4) per 100 women per year, 17 cases (95% CI: 16-18) per 1,000 pregnancies per year and 33 neonatal cases (95% CI: 31-36) per 100,000 births per year. CONCLUSIONS: HSV-2 transmission is rapid following the onset of sexual activity and likely to result in a significant burden of genital ulcer disease. Nevertheless, the burden of neonatal HSV-2 can be predicted to be low. Educating young women about HSV-2 infection may help in reducing its burden in this semi-urban population.