Non-O ABO blood group genotypes differ in their associations with Plasmodium falciparum rosetting and severe malaria.

Blood group O is associated with protection against severe malaria and reduced size and stability of P. falciparum-host red blood cell (RBC) rosettes compared to non-O blood groups. Whether the non-O blood groups encoded by the specific ABO genotypes AO, BO, AA, BB and AB differ in their associations with severe malaria and rosetting is unknown. The A and B antigens are host RBC receptors for rosetting, hence we hypothesized that the higher levels of A and/or B antigen on RBCs from AA, BB and AB genotypes compared to AO/BO genotypes could lead to larger rosettes, increased microvascular obstruction and higher risk of malaria pathology. We used a case-control study of Kenyan children and in vitro adhesion assays to test the hypothesis that "double dose" non-O genotypes (AA, BB, AB) are associated with increased risk of severe malaria and larger rosettes than "single dose" heterozygotes (AO, BO). In the case-control study, compared to OO, the double dose genotypes consistently had higher odds ratios (OR) for severe malaria than single dose genotypes, with AB (OR 1.93) and AO (OR 1.27) showing most marked difference (p = 0.02, Wald test). In vitro experiments with blood group A-preferring P. falciparum parasites showed that significantly larger rosettes were formed with AA and AB host RBCs compared to OO, whereas AO and BO genotypes rosettes were indistinguishable from OO. Overall, the data show that ABO genotype influences P. falciparum rosetting and support the hypothesis that double dose non-O genotypes confer a greater risk of severe malaria than AO/BO heterozygosity.

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals: Repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21.

INTRODUCTION: The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. METHODS: We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. CONCLUSIONS: There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

Improving the diagnosis of severe malaria in African children using platelet counts and plasma PfHRP2 concentrations.

Severe malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum is difficult to diagnose accurately in children in high-transmission settings. Using data from 2649 pediatric and adult patients enrolled in four studies of severe illness in three countries (Bangladesh, Kenya, and Uganda), we fitted Bayesian latent class models using two diagnostic markers: the platelet count and the plasma concentration of P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2). In severely ill patients with clinical features consistent with severe malaria, the combination of a platelet count of ≤150,000/µl and a plasma PfHRP2 concentration of ≥1000 ng/ml had an estimated sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 93% in identifying severe falciparum malaria. Compared with misdiagnosed children, pediatric patients with true severe malaria had higher parasite densities, lower hematocrits, lower rates of invasive bacterial disease, and a lower prevalence of both sickle cell trait and sickle cell anemia. We estimate that one-third of the children enrolled into clinical studies of severe malaria in high-transmission settings in Africa had another cause of their severe illness.

Improving statistical power in severe malaria genetic association studies by augmenting phenotypic precision.

Severe falciparum malaria has substantially affected human evolution. Genetic association studies of patients with clinically defined severe malaria and matched population controls have helped characterise human genetic susceptibility to severe malaria, but phenotypic imprecision compromises discovered associations. In areas of high malaria transmission, the diagnosis of severe malaria in young children and, in particular, the distinction from bacterial sepsis are imprecise. We developed a probabilistic diagnostic model of severe malaria using platelet and white count data. Under this model, we re-analysed clinical and genetic data from 2220 Kenyan children with clinically defined severe malaria and 3940 population controls, adjusting for phenotype mis-labelling. Our model, validated by the distribution of sickle trait, estimated that approximately one-third of cases did not have severe malaria. We propose a data-tilting approach for case-control studies with phenotype mis-labelling and show that this reduces false discovery rates and improves statistical power in genome-wide association studies.

In areas of sub-Saharan Africa where malaria is common, most people are frequently exposed to the bites of mosquitoes carrying malaria parasites, so they often have malaria parasites in their blood. Young children, who have not yet built up strong immunity against malaria, often fall ill with severe malaria, a life-threatening disease. It is unclear why some children develop severe malaria and die, while other children with high numbers of parasites in their blood do not develop any apparent symptoms. Genetic susceptibility studies are designed to uncover why such differences exist by comparing individuals with severe malaria (referred to as 'cases') with individuals drawn from the general population (known as 'controls'). But severe malaria can be a challenge to diagnose. Since high numbers of malaria parasites can be found in healthy children, it is sometimes difficult to determine whether the parasites are making a child ill, or whether they are a coincidental finding. Consequently, some of the 'cases' recruited into these studies may actually have a different disease, such as bacterial sepsis. This ultimately affects how the studies are interpreted, and introduces error and inaccuracy into the data. Watson, Ndila et al. investigated whether measuring blood biomarkers in patients (derived from the complete blood count, including platelet counts and white blood cell counts) could improve the accuracy with which malaria is diagnosed. They developed a new mathematical model that incorporates platelet and white blood cell counts. This model estimates that in a large cohort of 2,220 Kenyan children diagnosed with severe malaria, around one third of enrolled children did not actually have this disease. Further analysis suggests that patients with severe malaria are highly unlikely to have platelet counts higher than 200,000 per microlitre. This defines a cut-off that researchers can use to avoid recruiting patients who do not have severe malaria in future studies. Additionally, the ability to diagnose severe malaria more accurately can make it easier to detect and treat other diseases with similar symptoms in children with high numbers of malaria parasites in their blood. Watson, Ndila et al.'s findings support the recommendation that all children with suspected malaria be given broad spectrum antibiotics, as many misdiagnosed children will likely have bacterial sepsis. It also suggests that using complete blood counts, which are cheap to obtain and increasingly available in low-resource settings, could improve diagnostic accuracy in future clinical studies of severe malaria. This could ultimately improve the ability of these studies to find new treatments for this life-threatening disease.

Mortality in rural coastal Kenya measured using the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a 16-year descriptive analysis.

Background: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods: We calculated mortality rates from 2003-2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random-effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results: Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003-2018 and by 59% in children aged <5 years. Most of the decline occurred between 2003 and 2006. Among adults, the greatest decline (49%) was observed in those aged 15-54 years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years. Females outlived males by 6 years. Seasonality was only evident in the 1-4 year age group in the first four years. Geographical variation in mortality was ±10% of the median value and did not change over time. Conclusions: Between 2003 and 2018, mortality among children and young adults has improved substantially. The steep decline in 2003-2006 followed by a much slower reduction thereafter suggests improvements in health and wellbeing have plateaued in the last 12 years. However, there is substantial inequality in mortality experience by geographical location.

Plasma Plasmodium falciparum Histidine-rich Protein 2 Concentrations in Children With Malaria Infections of Differing Severity in Kilifi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Most previous studies support a direct link between total parasite load and the clinical severity of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections. METHODS: We estimated P. falciparum parasite loads in 3 groups of children with malaria infections of differing severity: (1) children with World Health Organization-defined severe malaria (n = 1544), (2) children admitted with malaria but without features of severity (n = 200), and (3) children in the community with asymptomatic parasitemia (n = 33). RESULTS: Peripheral parasitemias were highest in those with uncomplicated malaria (geometric mean [GM] parasite count, 111 064/µL; 95% confidence interval, CI, 86 798-141 819/µL), almost 3 times higher than in those with severe malaria (39 588/µL; 34 990-44 791/µL) and >100 times higher than in those with asymptomatic malaria (1092/µL; 523-2280/µL). However, the GM P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) values (95% CI) increased with severity, being 7 (4-12) ng/mL in asymptomatic malaria, 843 (655-1084) ng/mL in uncomplicated malaria, and 1369 (1244-1506) ng/mL in severe malaria. PfHRP2 concentrations were markedly lower in the subgroup of patients with severe malaria and concomitant invasive bacterial infections of blood or cerebrospinal fluid (GM concentration, 312 ng/mL; 95% CI, 175-557 ng/mL; P < .001) than in those without such infections (1439 ng/mL; 1307-1584; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The clinical severity of malaria infections related strongly to the total burden of P. falciparum parasites. A quantitative test for plasma concentrations of PfHRP2 could be useful in identifying children at the greatest clinical risk and identifying critically ill children in whom malaria is not the primary cause.

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency and susceptibility to childhood diseases in Kilifi, Kenya.

Few previous studies have reported the effects of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficiency on child health in Africa. We conducted a case-control study in which cases (n = 6829) were children admitted, for any reason, to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, while controls (n = 10 179) were recruited from the surrounding community. Cases were subclassified based on their clinical and laboratory findings at admission. We calculated the prevalence of specific diseases by G6PD c.202 genotype, the only significant cause of G6PD-deficiency in this area, then estimated the association between genotype and admission with specific conditions using logistic regression.  Among neonates, the prevalence of jaundice was higher in both G6PD c.202T heterozygotes (40/88; 45.5%; P = .004) and homo/hemizygotes (81/134; 60.5%; P < .0001) than in wild-type homozygotes (157/526; 29.9%). Median bilirubin levels also increased across the groups, being highest (239 mmol/L; interquartile range 96-390 mmol/L) in G6PD c.202T homo/hemizygotes. No differences were seen in admission hemoglobin concentrations or the prevalence of anemia or severe anemia by G6PD c.202 genotype. On case control analysis, G6PD heterozygosity was negatively associated with all-cause hospital admission (odds ratio 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.90; P < .0001) and, specifically, admission with either pneumonia or Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia; while, conversely, it was positively associated with Gram-positive bacteremia. G6PD c.202T homo/heterozygosity was positively associated with neonatal jaundice, severe pneumonia, the receipt of a transfusion, and in-patient death. Our study supports the conclusion that G6PD c.202T is a balanced polymorphism in which a selective advantage afforded to heterozygous females against malaria is counterbalanced by increased risks of neonatal jaundice, invasive bacterial infections, and anemia.

Clustering of health risk behaviors among adolescents in Kilifi, Kenya, a rural Sub-Saharan African setting.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents tend to experience heightened vulnerability to risky and reckless behavior. Adolescents living in rural settings may often experience poverty and a host of risk factors which can increase their vulnerability to various forms of health risk behavior (HRB). Understanding HRB clustering and its underlying factors among adolescents is important for intervention planning and health promotion. This study examines the co-occurrence of injury and violence, substance use, hygiene, physical activity, and diet-related risk behaviors among adolescents in a rural setting on the Kenyan coast. Specifically, the study objectives were to identify clusters of HRB; based on five categories of health risk behavior, and to identify the factors associated with HRB clustering. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted of a random sample of 1060 adolescents aged 13-19 years living within the area covered by the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Participants completed a questionnaire on health behaviors which was administered via an Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interview. Latent class analysis on 13 behavioral factors (injury and violence, hygiene, alcohol tobacco and drug use, physical activity, and dietary related behavior) was used to identify clustering and stepwise ordinal logistic regression with nonparametric bootstrapping identified the factors associated with clustering. The variables of age, sex, education level, school attendance, mental health, form of residence and level of parental monitoring were included in the initial stepwise regression model. RESULTS: We identified 3 behavioral clusters (Cluster 1: Low-risk takers (22.9%); Cluster 2: Moderate risk-takers (67.8%); Cluster 3: High risk-takers (9.3%)). Relative to the cluster 1, membership of higher risk clusters (i.e. moderate or high risk-takers) was strongly associated with older age (p<0.001), being male (p<0.001), depressive symptoms (p = 0.005), school non-attendance (p = 0.001) and a low level of parental monitoring (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: There is clustering of health risk behaviors that underlies communicable and non-communicable diseases among adolescents in rural coastal Kenya. This suggests the urgent need for targeted multi-component health behavior interventions that simultaneously address all aspects of adolescent health and well-being, including the mental health needs of adolescents.

The clinical spectrum of severe childhood malaria in Eastern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Few recent descriptions of severe childhood malaria have been published from high-transmission regions. In the current study, the clinical epidemiology of severe malaria in Mbale, Eastern Uganda, is described, where the entomological inoculation rate exceeds 100 infective bites per year. METHODS: A prospective descriptive study was conducted to determine the prevalence, clinical spectrum and outcome of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital in Eastern Uganda. All children aged 2 months-12 years who presented on Mondays to Fridays between 8.00 am and 5.00 pm from 5th May 2011 until 30th April 2012 were screened for parasitaemia. Clinical and laboratory data were then collected from all P. falciparum positive children with features of WHO-defined severe malaria by use of a standardized proforma. RESULTS: A total of 10 208 children were screened of which 6582 (64%) had a positive blood film. Of these children, 662 (10%) had clinical features of severe malaria and were consented for the current study. Respiratory distress was the most common severity feature (554; 83.7%), while 365/585 (62.4%) had hyperparasitaemia, 177/662 (26.7%) had clinical jaundice, 169 (25.5%) had severe anaemia, 134/660 (20.2%) had hyperlactataemia (lactate ≥ 5 mmol/L), 93 (14.0%) had passed dark red or black urine, 52 (7.9%) had impaired consciousness and 49/662 (7.4%) had hypoxaemia (oxygen saturations < 90%). In-hospital mortality was 63/662 (9.5%) overall but was higher in children with either cerebral malaria (33.3%) or severe anaemia (19.5%). Factors that were independently associated with mortality on multivariate analysis included severe anaemia [odds ratio (OR) 5.36; 2.16-1.32; P = 0.0002], hyperlactataemia (OR 3.66; 1.72-7.80; P = 0.001), hypoxaemia (OR) 3.64 (95% CI 1.39-9.52; P = 0.008), and hepatomegaly (OR 2.29; 1.29-4.06; P = 0.004). No independent association was found between mortality and either coma or hyperparasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Severe childhood malaria remains common in Eastern Uganda where it continues to be associated with high mortality. An unusually high proportion of children with severe malaria had jaundice or gave a history of having recently passed dark red or black urine, an issue worthy of further investigation.

Characterising demographics, knowledge, practices and clinical care among patients attending sickle cell disease clinics in Eastern Uganda.

Background: In Uganda to date, there are neither established registries nor descriptions of facility-based sickle cell disease (SCD) patient characteristics beyond the central region. Here, we summarize data on the baseline clinical characteristics and routine care available to patients at four clinics in Eastern Uganda as a prelude to a clinical trial. Methods: Between February and August 2018, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of patients attending four SCD clinics in Mbale, Soroti, Atutur and Ngora, all in Eastern Uganda, the planned sites for an upcoming clinical trial (H-PRIME:  ISRCTN15724013). Data on socio-demographic characteristics, diagnostic methods, clinic schedules, the use of prophylactic and therapeutic drugs, clinical complications and patient understanding of SCD were collected using a structured questionnaire. Results: Data were collected on 1829 patients. Their ages ranged from 0 to 64 years with a median (IQR) of 6 (3-11) years. 49.1% of participants were male. The majority (1151; 62.9%) reported a positive family history for SCD. Approximately half knew that SCD is inherited from both parents but a substantial proportion did not know how SCD is transmitted and small numbers believed that it is acquired by either transfusion or from other people. Only 118/1819 (6.5%) participants had heard about or were using hydroxyurea while 356/1794 (19.8%) reported stigmatization. Participants reported a median of three (IQR 1-4) hospital admissions during the preceding 12 months; 80.8% had been admitted at least once, while 14.2% had been admitted more than five times. Pain was the most common symptom, while 83.9% of those admitted had received at least one blood transfusion. Conclusion: The majority of patients attending SCD clinics in Eastern Uganda are children and few are currently being treated with hydroxyurea. The data collected through this facility-based survey will provide background data that will be useful in planning for the H-PRIME trial.

Malaria infection, disease and mortality among children and adults on the coast of Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission has recently fallen in many parts of Africa, but systematic descriptions of infection and disease across all age groups are rare. Here, an epidemiological investigation of parasite prevalence, the incidence of fevers associated with infection, severe hospitalized disease and mortality among children older than 6 months and adults on the Kenyan coast is presented. METHODS: A prospective fever surveillance was undertaken at 6 out-patients (OPD) health-facilities between March 2018 and February 2019. Four community-based, cross sectional surveys of fever history and infection prevalence were completed among randomly selected homestead members from the same communities. Paediatric and adult malaria at Kilifi county hospital was obtained for the 12 months period. Rapid Diagnostic Tests (CareStart™ RDT) to detect HRP2-specific to Plasmodium falciparum was used in the community and the OPD, and microscopy in the hospital. Crude and age-specific incidence rates were computed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Parasite prevalence gradually increased from childhood, reaching 12% by 9 years of age then declining through adolescence into adulthood. The incidence rate of RDT positivity in the OPD followed a similar trend to that of infection prevalence in the community. The incidence of hospitalized malaria from the same community was concentrated among children aged 6 months to 4 years (i.e. 64% and 70% of all hospitalized and severe malaria during the 12 months of surveillance, respectively). Only 3.7% (12/316) of deaths were directly attributable to malaria. Malaria mortality was highest among children aged 6 months-4 years at 0.57 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.2, 1.2). Severe malaria and death from malaria was negligible above 15 years of age. CONCLUSION: Under conditions of low transmission intensity, immunity to disease and the fatal consequences of infection appear to continue to be acquired in childhood and faster than anti-parasitic immunity. There was no evidence of an emerging significant burden of severe malaria or malaria mortality among adults. This is contrary to current modelled approaches to disease burden estimation in Africa and has important implications for the targeting of infection prevention strategies based on chemoprevention or vector control.

ß-Thalassemia pathogenic variants in a cohort of children from the East African coast.

BACKGROUND: ß-Thalassemia is rare in sub-Saharan Africa. Previous studies have suggested that it is limited to specific parts of West Africa. Based on hemoglobin A2 (HbA2 ) concentrations measured by HPLC, we recently speculated that ß-thalassemia might also be present on the East African coast of Kenya. Here, we follow this up using molecular methods. METHODS: We used raised hemoglobin A2 (HbA2 ) values (> 4.0% of total Hb) to target all HbAA members of a cohort study in Kilifi, Kenya, for HBB sequencing for ß-thalassemia (n = 99) together with a sample of HbAA subjects with lower HbA2 levels. Because HbA2 values are artifactually raised in subjects carrying sickle hemoglobin (HbS) we sequenced all participants with an HPLC pattern showing HbS without HbA (n = 116) and a sample with a pattern showing both HbA and HbS. RESULTS: Overall, we identified 83 carriers of four separate ß-thalassemia pathogenic variants: three ß0 -thalassemia [CD22 (GAA→TAA), initiation codon (ATG→ACG), and IVS1-3' end del 25bp] and one ß+ -thalassemia pathogenic variants (IVS-I-110 (G→A)). We estimated the minimum allele frequency of all variants combined within the study population at 0.3%. CONCLUSIONS: ß-Thalassemia is present in Kilifi, Kenya, an observation that has implications for the diagnosis and clinical care of children from the East Africa region.

The epidemiology of sickle cell disease in children recruited in infancy in Kilifi, Kenya: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell disease is the most common severe monogenic disorder in humans. In Africa, 50-90% of children born with sickle cell disease die before they reach their fifth birthday. In this study, we aimed to describe the comparative incidence of specific clinical outcomes among children aged between birth and 5 years with and without sickle cell disease, who were resident within the Kilifi area of Kenya. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was done on members of the Kilifi Genetic Birth Cohort Study (KGBCS) on the Indian Ocean coast of Kenya. Recruitment to the study was facilitated through the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), which covers a resident population of 260 000 people, and was undertaken between Jan 1, 2006, and April 30, 2011. All children who were born within the KHDSS area and who were aged 3-12 months during the recruitment period were eligible for inclusion. Participants were tested for sickle cell disease and followed up for survival status and disease-specific admission to Kilifi County Hospital by passive surveillance until their fifth birthday. Children with sickle cell disease were offered confirmatory testing and care at a dedicated outpatient clinic. FINDINGS: 15 737 infants were recruited successfully to the KGBCS, and 128 (0·8%) of these infants had sickle cell disease, of whom 70 (54·7%) enrolled at the outpatient clinic within 12 months of recruitment. Mortality was higher in children with sickle cell disease (58 per 1000 person-years of observation, 95% CI 40-86) than in those without sickle cell disease (2·4 per 1000 person-years of observation, 2·0-2·8; adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 23·1, 95% CI 15·1-35·3). Among children with sickle cell disease, mortality was lower in those who enrolled at the clinic (adjusted IRR 0·26, 95% CI 0·11-0·62) and in those with higher levels of haemoglobin F (HbF; adjusted IRR 0·40, 0·17-0·94). The incidence of admission to hospital was also higher in children with sickle cell disease than in children without sickle cell disease (210 per 1000 person-years of observation, 95% CI 174-253, vs 43 per 1000 person-years of observation, 42-45; adjusted IRR 4·80, 95% CI 3·84-6·15). The most common reason for admission to hospital among those with sickle cell disease was severe anaemia (incidence 48 per 1000 person-years of observation, 95% CI 32-71). Admission to hospital was lower in those with a recruitment HbF level above the median (IRR 0·43, 95% CI 0·24-0·78; p=0·005) and those who were homozygous for α-thalassaemia (0·07, 0·01-0·83; p=0·035). INTERPRETATION: Although morbidity and mortality were high in young children with sickle cell disease in this Kenyan cohort, both were reduced by early diagnosis and supportive care. The emphasis must now move towards early detection and prevention of long-term complications of sickle cell disease. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

The indirect health effects of malaria estimated from health advantages of the sickle cell trait.

Most estimates of the burden of malaria are based on its direct impacts; however, its true burden is likely to be greater because of its wider effects on overall health. Here we estimate the indirect impact of malaria on children's health in a case-control study, using the sickle cell trait (HbAS), a condition associated with a high degree of specific malaria resistance, as a proxy indicator for an effective intervention. We estimate the odds ratios for HbAS among cases (all children admitted to Kilifi County Hospital during 2000-2004) versus community controls. As expected, HbAS protects strongly against malaria admissions (aOR 0.26; 95%CI 0.22-0.31), but it also protects against other syndromes, including neonatal conditions (aOR 0.79; 0.67-0.93), bacteraemia (aOR 0.69; 0.54-0.88) and severe malnutrition (aOR 0.67; 0.55-0.83). The wider health impacts of malaria should be considered when estimating the potential added benefits of effective malaria interventions.

Suicide in a rural area of coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Suicide accounts for approximately 1.4% of deaths globally and is the 15th leading cause of death overall. There are no reliable data on the epidemiology of completed suicide in rural areas of many developing countries, yet suicide is an indicator of the sustainable development goals on health. METHODS: Using data collected between 2008 and 2016 from the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural Kenya, we retrospectively determined the incidence rate and risk factors for completed suicide. RESULTS: During the period, 104 people died by suicide, contributing to 0.78% (95% CI = 0.74-1.10) of all deaths. The mean annual incidence rate of suicide was 4.61 (95% CI = 3.80-5.58) per 100,000 person years of observation (pyo). The annual incidence rate for men was higher than that of women (IRR = 3.05, 95% CI = 1.98-4.70, p < 0.001) and it increased with age (IRR = 2.73, 95% CI = 2.30-3.24, p < 0.001). People aged > 64 years had the highest mean incidence rate of 18.58 (95% CI = 11.99-28.80) per 100,000 pyo. Completed suicide was associated with age, being male, and living in a house whose wall is made of scrap material, which is a proxy marker of extreme poverty in this region (OR = 5.5, 95% CI = 4.0-7.0, p = 0.02). Most cases (76%) completed suicide by hanging themselves. Spatial heterogeneity of rates of suicides was observed across the enumeration zones of the KHDSS. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide is common in this area, but the incidence of completed suicide in rural Kenya may be an underestimate of the true burden. Like in other studies, suicide was associated with older age, being male and poverty, but other medical and neuropsychiatric risk factors should be investigated in future studies.

Human candidate gene polymorphisms and risk of severe malaria in children in Kilifi, Kenya: a case-control association study.

BACKGROUND: Human genetic factors are important determinants of malaria risk. We investigated associations between multiple candidate polymorphisms-many related to the structure or function of red blood cells-and risk for severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its specific phenotypes, including cerebral malaria, severe malaria anaemia, and respiratory distress. METHODS: We did a case-control study in Kilifi County, Kenya. We recruited as cases children presenting with severe malaria to the high-dependency ward of Kilifi County Hospital. We included as controls infants born in the local community between Aug 1, 2006, and Sept 30, 2010, who were part of a genetics study. We tested for associations between a range of candidate malaria-protective genes and risk for severe malaria and its specific phenotypes. We used a permutation approach to account for multiple comparisons between polymorphisms and severe malaria. We judged p values less than 0·005 significant for the primary analysis of the association between candidate genes and severe malaria. FINDINGS: Between June 11, 1995, and June 12, 2008, 2244 children with severe malaria were recruited to the study, and 3949 infants were included as controls. Overall, 263 (12%) of 2244 children with severe malaria died in hospital, including 196 (16%) of 1233 with cerebral malaria. We investigated 121 polymorphisms in 70 candidate severe malaria-associated genes. We found significant associations between risk for severe malaria overall and polymorphisms in 15 genes or locations, of which most were related to red blood cells: ABO, ATP2B4, ARL14, CD40LG, FREM3, INPP4B, G6PD, HBA (both HBA1 and HBA2), HBB, IL10, LPHN2 (also known as ADGRL2), LOC727982, RPS6KL1, CAND1, and GNAS. Combined, these genetic associations accounted for 5·2% of the variance in risk for developing severe malaria among individuals in the general population. We confirmed established associations between severe malaria and sickle-cell trait (odds ratio [OR] 0·15, 95% CI 0·11-0·20; p=2·61 × 10-58), blood group O (0·74, 0·66-0·82; p=6·26 × 10-8), and -α3·7-thalassaemia (0·83, 0·76-0·90; p=2·06 × 10-6). We also found strong associations between overall risk of severe malaria and polymorphisms in both ATP2B4 (OR 0·76, 95% CI 0·63-0·92; p=0·001) and FREM3 (0·64, 0·53-0·79; p=3·18 × 10-14). The association with FREM3 could be accounted for by linkage disequilibrium with a complex structural mutation within the glycophorin gene region (comprising GYPA, GYPB, and GYPE) that encodes for the rare Dantu blood group antigen. Heterozygosity for Dantu was associated with risk for severe malaria (OR 0·57, 95% CI 0·49-0·68; p=3·22 × 10-11), as was homozygosity (0·26, 0·11-0·62; p=0·002). INTERPRETATION: Both ATP2B4 and the Dantu blood group antigen are associated with the structure and function of red blood cells. ATP2B4 codes for plasma membrane calcium-transporting ATPase 4 (the major calcium pump on red blood cells) and the glycophorins are ligands for parasites to invade red blood cells. Future work should aim at uncovering the mechanisms by which these polymorphisms can result in severe malaria protection and investigate the implications of these associations for wider health. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, European Union, and Foundation for the National Institutes of Health as part of the Bill & Melinda Gates Grand Challenges in Global Health Initiative.

The clinical epidemiology of sickle cell anemia In Africa.

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is the commonest severe monogenic disorders of humans. The disease has been highly characterized in high-income countries but not in sub-Saharan Africa where SCA is most prevalent. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all children 0-13 years admitted from within a defined study area to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya over a five-year period. Children were genotyped for SCA retrospectively and incidence rates calculated with reference to population data. Overall, 576 of 18,873 (3.1%) admissions had SCA of whom the majority (399; 69.3%) were previously undiagnosed. The incidence of all-cause hospital admission was 57.2/100 person years of observation (PYO; 95%CI 52.6-62.1) in children with SCA and 3.7/100 PYO (95%CI 3.7-3.8) in those without SCA (IRR 15.3; 95%CI 14.1-16.6). Rates were higher for the majority of syndromic diagnoses at all ages beyond the neonatal period, being especially high for severe anemia (hemoglobin <50 g/L; IRR 58.8; 95%CI 50.3-68.7), stroke (IRR 486; 95%CI 68.4-3,450), bacteremia (IRR 23.4; 95%CI 17.4-31.4), and for bone (IRR 607; 95%CI 284-1,300), and joint (IRR 80.9; 95%CI 18.1-362) infections. The use of an algorithm based on just five clinical features would have identified approximately half of all SCA cases among hospital-admitted children with a number needed to test to identify each affected patient of only fourteen. Our study illustrates the clinical epidemiology of SCA in a malaria-endemic environment without specific interventions. The targeted testing of hospital-admitted children using the Kilifi Algorithm provides a pragmatic approach to early diagnosis in high-prevalence countries where newborn screening is unavailable.

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency and the risk of malaria and other diseases in children in Kenya: a case-control and a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The global prevalence of X-linked glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is thought to be a result of selection by malaria, but epidemiological studies have yielded confusing results. We investigated the relationships between G6PD deficiency and both malaria and non-malarial illnesses among children in Kenya. METHODS: We did this study in Kilifi County, Kenya, where the G6PD c.202T allele is the only significant cause of G6PD deficiency. We tested the associations between G6PD deficiency and severe and complicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria through a case-control study of 2220 case and 3940 control children. Cases were children aged younger than 14 years, who visited the high dependency ward of Kilifi County Hospital with severe malaria between March 1, 1998, and Feb 28, 2010. Controls were children aged between 3-12 months who were born within the same study area between August 2006, and September 2010. We assessed the association between G6PD deficiency and both uncomplicated malaria and other common diseases of childhood in a cohort study of 752 children aged younger than 10 years. Participants of this study were recruited from a representative sample of households within the Ngerenya and Chonyi areas of Kilifi County between Aug 1, 1998, and July 31, 2001. The primary outcome measure for the case-control study was the odds ratio for hospital admission with severe malaria (computed by logistic regression) while for the cohort study it was the incidence rate ratio for uncomplicated malaria and non-malaria illnesses (computed by Poisson regression), by G6PD deficiency category. FINDINGS: 2863 (73%) children in the control group versus 1643 (74%) in the case group had the G6PD normal genotype, 639 (16%) versus 306 (14%) were girls heterozygous for G6PD c.202T, and 438 (11%) versus 271 (12%) children were either homozygous girls or hemizygous boys. Compared with boys and girls without G6PD deficiency, we found significant protection from severe malaria (odds ratio [OR] 0·82, 95% CI 0·70-0·97; p=0·020) among G6PD c.202T heterozygous girls but no evidence for protection among G6PD c.202T hemizygous boys and homozygous girls (OR 1·18, 0·99-1·40; p=0·056). Median follow-up for the mild disease cohort study was 2·24 years (IQR 2·22-2·85). G6PD c.202T had no effect on other common diseases of childhood in heterozygous girls (incidence rate ratio 0·98, 95% CI 0·86-1·11; p=0·82) or homozygous girls or hemizygous boys (0·93, 0·82-1·04; p=0·25), with the sole exception of a marginally significant increase in the incidence of helminth infections among heterozygous girls. INTERPRETATION: Heterozygous girls might be the driving force for the positive selection of G6PD deficiency alleles. Further studies are needed to definitively establish the mechanisms by which G6PD deficiency confers an advantage against malaria in heterozygous individuals. Such studies could lead to the development of new treatments. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, European Union, and Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (as part of the Bill & Melinda Gates Grand Challenges in Global Health Initiative).

Causes of death among persons of all ages within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, determined from verbal autopsies interpreted using the InterVA-4 model.

BACKGROUND: The vast majority of deaths in the Kilifi study area are not recorded through official systems of vital registration. As a result, few data are available regarding causes of death in this population. OBJECTIVE: To describe the causes of death (CODs) among residents of all ages within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) on the coast of Kenya. DESIGN: Verbal autopsies (VAs) were conducted using the 2007 World Health Organization (WHO) standard VA questionnaires, and VA data further transformed to align with the 2012 WHO VA instrument. CODs were then determined using the InterVA-4 computer-based probabilistic model. RESULTS: Five thousand one hundred and eighty seven deaths were recorded between January 2008 and December 2011. VA interviews were completed for 4,460 (86%) deaths. Neonatal pneumonia and birth asphyxia were the main CODs in neonates; pneumonia and malaria were the main CODs among infants and children aged 1-4, respectively, while HIV/AIDS was the main COD for adult women of reproductive age. Road traffic accidents were more commonly observed among men than women. Stroke and neoplasms were common CODs among the elderly over the age of 65. CONCLUSIONS: We have established the main CODs among people of all ages within the area served by the KHDSS on the coast of Kenya using the 2007 WHO VA questionnaire coded using InterVA-4. We hope that our data will allow local health planners to estimate the burden of various diseases and to allocate their limited resources more appropriately.