Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data.

Excessive truncation of a population's size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population.

Small variance in growth rates in annual plants has large effects on genetic drift.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Effective population size (N(e)) is a critical index of the evolutionary capacity of populations. Low N(e) indicates that standing genetic diversity is susceptible to loss via stochastic processes (and inbreeding) and is, therefore, unavailable for natural selection to act upon. Reported N(e) in plant populations is often quite low. What biological and ecological factors might produce such low N(e) • METHODS: We conducted a simulation model to test the effect of randomly assigned and autocorrelated growth rates of annual plants on plant-size distributions at the end of the growing season. Because plant size is directly correlated with reproductive output in annual plants, variation in plant size reflects variation in reproduction, and thus our modeled size distributions can be used to estimate N(e). • KEY RESULTS: Randomly assigned growth rates had a negligble effect on N(e)/N. Autocorrelated growth rates decreased N(e)/N as the length of the growing season increased. This was the case even when the variance in growth rates was as low as 0.1% of the mean. • CONCLUSIONS: While intrinsic plant biology can affect the degree of growth autocorrelation, ecological factors such as competition, herbivory, and abiotic stress can increase or decrease levels of growth autocorrelation. Ecological factors that increase growth autocorrelation can have significant effects on genetic drift within populations.

Marine reserve networks for species that move within a home range.

Marine reserves are expected to benefit a wide range of species, but most models used to evaluate their effects assume that adults are sedentary, thereby potentially overestimating population persistence. Many nearshore marine organisms move within a home range as adults, and there is a need to understand the effects of this type of movement on reserve performance. We incorporated movement within a home range into a spatially explicit marine reserve model in order to assess the combined effects of adult and larval movement on persistence and yield in a general, strategic framework. We describe how the capacity of a population to persist decreased with increasing home range size in a manner that depended on whether the sedentary case was maintained by self persistence or network persistence. Self persistence declined gradually with increasing home range and larval dispersal distance, while network persistence decreased sharply to 0 above a threshold home range and was less dependent on larval dispersal distance. The maximum home range size protected by a reserve network increased with the fraction of coastline in reserves and decreasing exploitation rates outside reserves. Spillover due to movement within a home range contributed to yield moderately under certain conditions, although yield contributions were generally not as large as those from spillover due to larval dispersal. Our results indicate that, for species exhibiting home range behavior, persistence in a network of marine reserves may be more predictable than previously anticipated from models based solely on larval dispersal, in part due to better knowledge of home range sizes. Including movement within a home range can change persistence results significantly from those assuming that adults are sedentary; hence it is an important consideration in reserve design.

Model-based assessment of persistence in proposed marine protected area designs.

Assessment of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires the ability to quantify the effects of proposed MPA size and placement, habitat distribution, larval dispersal, and fishing on the persistence of protected populations. Here we describe a model-based approach to assessment of the contribution of a network of marine protected areas to the persistence of populations with a sedentary adult phase and a dispersing larval phase. The model integrates the effects of a patchy spatial distribution of habitat, the spatial scale of larval dispersal, and the level of fishing outside of reserves into a calculation of the spatial distribution of equilibrium settlement. We use the amount of coastline predicted to have equilibrium settlement rates that saturate post-settlement habitat as a response variable for the assessment and comparison of MPA network designs. We apply this model to a set of recently proposed MPA networks for the central coast of California, USA. Results show that the area of habitat set aside is a good predictor of the area over which population levels will be high for short-distance dispersers. However, persistence of longer distance dispersers depends critically on the spatial distribution of habitat and reserves, ranging from not persistent anywhere to persistent over a greater area than that set aside in reserves. These results depend on the mechanisms of persistence, with self-replacement supporting short-distance dispersers and network effects supporting long-distance dispersers. Persistence also depends critically on fishery status outside the MPAs, as well as how fishing effort is redistributed after MPA implementation. This assessment method provides important benchmarks, as well as a transparent modeling approach, for improving initial MPA configurations that may result from less-comprehensive rule- or habitat-based methods of designing MPAs.

Estimating the status of nearshore rockfish (Sebastes spp.) populations with length frequency data.

Ecologists often point to excessive truncation of a population's size-structure as a deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect of this truncation on population persistence is seldom quantified. While persistence of marine populations requires maintenance of a sufficient level of lifetime reproduction, fishing reduces lifetime reproduction by increasing the total mortality rate, preventing individuals from growing old, large, and highly fecund. We employ a new method of estimating changes in lifetime egg production (LEP) using two samples of the size structure, one in the past and one current, to assess persistence of five species of nearshore rockfish (Sebastes spp.) in California and Oregon, U.S.A. Using length frequency data from catch in the recreational fishery, we estimate that since 1980, four of the five rockfish species considered have experienced declines in LEP to levels that suggest that persistence is impaired. When changes in LEP were estimated for subsets of the data corresponding to neighboring geographical regions, differences in LEP levels were apparent in the neighboring regions, implying that the effects of fishing mortality are not evenly distributed over space. We conclude by discussing the use of this estimation approach to assess the status of other species in data-poor situations.