Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing. METHODS: Our Bayesian hierarchical model of antibody kinetics estimated neutralising-antibody trajectories against a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants quantified with a live virus microneutralisation assay and informed by individual-level COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. Antibody titre trajectories were modelled with a piecewise linear function that depended on the key biological quantities of an initial titre value, time the peak titre is reached, set-point time, and corresponding rates of increase and decrease for gradients between two timing parameters. All process parameters were estimated at both the individual level and the population level. We analysed data from participants in the University College London Hospitals-Francis Crick Institute Legacy study cohort (NCT04750356) who underwent surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 either through asymptomatic mandatory occupational health screening once per week between April 1, 2020, and May 31, 2022, or symptom-based testing between April 1, 2020, and Feb 1, 2023. People included in the Legacy study were either Crick employees or health-care workers at three London hospitals, older than 18 years, and gave written informed consent. Legacy excluded people who were unable or unwilling to give informed consent and those not employed by a qualifying institution. We segmented data to include vaccination events occurring up to 150 days before the emergence of three variants of concern: delta, BA.2, and XBB 1.5. We split the data for each wave into two categories: real-time and retrospective. The real-time dataset contained neutralising-antibody titres collected up to the date of emergence in each wave; the retrospective dataset contained all samples until the next SARS-CoV-2 exposure of each individual, whether vaccination or infection. FINDINGS: We included data from 335 participants in the delta wave analysis, 223 (67%) of whom were female and 112 (33%) of whom were male (median age 40 years, IQR 22-58); data from 385 participants in the BA.2 wave analysis, 271 (70%) of whom were female and 114 (30%) of whom were male (41 years, 22-60); and data from 248 participants in the XBB 1.5 wave analysis, 191 (77%) of whom were female, 56 (23%) of whom were male, and one (<1%) of whom preferred not to say (40 years, 21-59). Overall, we included 968 exposures (vaccinations) across 1895 serum samples in the model. For the delta wave, we estimated peak titre values as 490·0 IC50 (95% credible interval 224·3-1515·9) for people with no previous infection and as 702·4 IC50 (300·8-2322·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron; the delta wave did not include people with a previous omicron infection. For the BA.2 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 858·1 IC50 (689·8-1363·2) for people with no previous infection, 1020·7 IC50 (725·9-1722·6) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1422·0 IC50 (679·2-3027·3) for people with a previous omicron infection. For the XBB 1.5 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 703·2 IC50 (415·0-3197·8) for people with no previous infection, 1215·9 IC50 (511·6-7338·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1556·3 IC50 (757·2-7907·9) for people with a previous omicron infection. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows the feasibility of real-time estimation of antibody kinetics before SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence. This estimation is valuable for understanding how specific combinations of SARS-CoV-2 exposures influence antibody kinetics and for examining how COVID-19 vaccination-campaign timing could affect population-level immunity to emerging variants. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, UK Research and Innovation, UK Medical Research Council, Francis Crick Institute, and Genotype-to-Phenotype National Virology Consortium.

COVID-19 in non-hospitalised adults caused by either SARS-CoV-2 sub-variants Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5 or Delta associates with similar illness duration, symptom severity and viral kinetics, irrespective of vaccination history.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron rapidly evolved over 2022, causing three waves of infection due to sub-variants BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/5. We sought to characterise symptoms and viral loads over the course of COVID-19 infection with these sub-variants in otherwise-healthy, vaccinated, non-hospitalised adults, and compared data to infections with the preceding Delta variant of concern (VOC). METHODS: In a prospective, observational cohort study, healthy vaccinated UK adults who reported a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or lateral flow test, self-swabbed on alternate weekdays until day 10. We compared participant-reported symptoms and viral load trajectories between infections caused by VOCs Delta and Omicron (sub-variants BA.1, BA.2 or BA.4/5), and tested for relationships between vaccine dose, symptoms and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) as a proxy for viral load using Chi-squared (χ2) and Wilcoxon tests. RESULTS: 563 infection episodes were reported among 491 participants. Across infection episodes, there was little variation in symptom burden (4 [IQR 3-5] symptoms) and duration (8 [IQR 6-11] days). Whilst symptom profiles differed among infections caused by Delta compared to Omicron sub-variants, symptom profiles were similar between Omicron sub-variants. Anosmia was reported more frequently in Delta infections after 2 doses compared with Omicron sub-variant infections after 3 doses, for example: 42% (25/60) of participants with Delta infection compared to 9% (6/67) with Omicron BA.4/5 (χ2 P < 0.001; OR 7.3 [95% CI 2.7-19.4]). Fever was less common with Delta (20/60 participants; 33%) than Omicron BA.4/5 (39/67; 58%; χ2 P = 0.008; OR 0.4 [CI 0.2-0.7]). Amongst infections with an Omicron sub-variants, symptoms of coryza, fatigue, cough and myalgia predominated. Viral load trajectories and peaks did not differ between Delta, and Omicron, irrespective of symptom severity (including asymptomatic participants), VOC or vaccination status. PCR Ct values were negatively associated with time since vaccination in participants infected with BA.1 (ß = -0.05 (CI -0.10-0.01); P = 0.031); however, this trend was not observed in BA.2 or BA.4/5 infections. CONCLUSION: Our study emphasises both the changing symptom profile of COVID-19 infections in the Omicron era, and ongoing transmission risk of Omicron sub-variants in vaccinated adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04750356.

Combined analyses of within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and information on past exposures to the virus in a human cohort identifies intrinsic differences of Omicron and Delta variants.

The emergence of successive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) during 2020 to 2022, each exhibiting increased epidemic growth relative to earlier circulating variants, has created a need to understand the drivers of such growth. However, both pathogen biology and changing host characteristics-such as varying levels of immunity-can combine to influence replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between hosts. Disentangling the role of variant and host in individual-level viral shedding of VOCs is essential to inform Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) planning and response and interpret past epidemic trends. Using data from a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct individual-level viral kinetics and estimate how different factors shaped viral dynamics, measured by PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values over time. Jointly accounting for both interindividual variation in Ct values and complex host characteristics-such as vaccination status, exposure history, and age-we found that age and number of prior exposures had a strong influence on peak viral replication. Older individuals and those who had at least 5 prior antigen exposures to vaccination and/or infection typically had much lower levels of shedding. Moreover, we found evidence of a correlation between the speed of early shedding and duration of incubation period when comparing different VOCs and age groups. Our findings illustrate the value of linking information on participant characteristics, symptom profile and infecting variant with prospective PCR sampling, and the importance of accounting for increasingly complex population exposure landscapes when analysing the viral kinetics of VOCs. Trial Registration: The Legacy study is a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening for SARS-CoV-2 at University College London Hospitals or at the Francis Crick Institute (NCT04750356) (22,23). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469) and is sponsored by University College London Hospitals. Written consent was given by all participants.

Training Informal Supporters to Improve Responses to Victim-Survivors of Domestic Violence and Abuse: A Systematic Review.

Informal supporters (friends, family, colleagues, and community members) play a crucial role in societal-wide responses to victim-survivors of domestic violence and abuse. Familial and social networks, however, report a sense of helplessness and difficulties in knowing how to respond. This mixed method systematic review examines the effectiveness, and perceived effectiveness, of training informal supporters to improve their responses to victim-survivors. A novel conceptual framework was developed to underpin the review. A systematic search of four electronic databases, specialist repositories, and websites were used to identify empirical research (in academic or gray literature). Eleven included studies examined educational interventions that aimed to improve responses from informal supporters. Quality appraisal was undertaken, and studies were judged to be "good enough" for synthesis. The studies in the review indicated that informal supporters recognized the value of training for building understanding and equipping them with the skills to respond to victim-survivors. The synthesis identified statistically significant improvements in the knowledge and attitudes of informal supporters in the immediate and short-term following training. Using a behavior change model to frame the evidence, the review found that training/educational activities prime informal supporters to respond to victim-survivors, as well as enhancing their capacity and motivation to do so. This increases the likelihood that informal supporters will take action to support victim-survivors of abuse. We don't know, however, what type of support they will provide and/or whether it would be judged to be helpful by victim-survivors.

Within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics informed by complex life course exposures reveals different intrinsic properties of Omicron and Delta variants.

The emergence of successive SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) during 2020-22, each exhibiting increased epidemic growth relative to earlier circulating variants, has created a need to understand the drivers of such growth. However, both pathogen biology and changing host characteristics - such as varying levels of immunity - can combine to influence replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between hosts. Disentangling the role of variant and host in individual-level viral shedding of VOCs is essential to inform COVID-19 planning and response, and interpret past epidemic trends. Using data from a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct individual-level viral kinetics and estimate how different factors shaped viral dynamics, measured by PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values over time. Jointly accounting for both inter-individual variation in Ct values and complex host characteristics - such as vaccination status, exposure history and age - we found that age and number of prior exposures had a strong influence on peak viral replication. Older individuals and those who had at least five prior antigen exposures to vaccination and/or infection typically had much lower levels of shedding. Moreover, we found evidence of a correlation between the speed of early shedding and duration of incubation period when comparing different VOCs and age groups. Our findings illustrate the value of linking information on participant characteristics, symptom profile and infecting variant with prospective PCR sampling, and the importance of accounting for increasingly complex population exposure landscapes when analysing the viral kinetics of VOCs.

Sotrovimab restores neutralization against current Omicron subvariants in patients with blood cancer.

Wu et al. report that patients with hematologic malignancies have reduced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants and Sotrovimab retains neutralizing capacity against all tested Omicron subvariants.

Characterisation of a cyclic peptide that binds to the RAS binding domain of phosphoinositide 3-kinase p110α.

P110α is a member of the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) enzyme family that functions downstream of RAS. RAS proteins contribute to the activation of p110α by interacting directly with its RAS binding domain (RBD), resulting in the promotion of many cellular functions such as cell growth, proliferation and survival. Previous work from our lab has highlighted the importance of the p110α/RAS interaction in tumour initiation and growth. Here we report the discovery and characterisation of a cyclic peptide inhibitor (cyclo-CRVLIR) that interacts with the p110α-RBD and blocks its interaction with KRAS. cyclo-CRVLIR was discovered by screening a "split-intein cyclisation of peptides and proteins" (SICLOPPS) cyclic peptide library. The primary cyclic peptide hit from the screen initially showed a weak affinity for the p110α-RBD (Kd about 360 µM). However, two rounds of amino acid substitution led to cyclo-CRVLIR, with an improved affinity for p110α-RBD in the low µM (Kd 3 µM). We show that cyclo-CRVLIR binds selectively to the p110α-RBD but not to KRAS or the structurally-related RAF-RBD. Further, using biophysical, biochemical and cellular assays, we show that cyclo-CRVLIR effectively blocks the p110α/KRAS interaction in a dose dependent manner and reduces phospho-AKT levels in several oncogenic KRAS cell lines.

ATG9A and ATG2A form a heteromeric complex essential for autophagosome formation.

ATG9A and ATG2A are essential core members of the autophagy machinery. ATG9A is a lipid scramblase that allows equilibration of lipids across a membrane bilayer, whereas ATG2A facilitates lipid flow between tethered membranes. Although both have been functionally linked during the formation of autophagosomes, the molecular details and consequences of their interaction remain unclear. By combining data from peptide arrays, crosslinking, and hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry together with cryoelectron microscopy, we propose a molecular model of the ATG9A-2A complex. Using this integrative structure modeling approach, we identify several interfaces mediating ATG9A-2A interaction that would allow a direct transfer of lipids from ATG2A into the lipid-binding perpendicular branch of ATG9A. Mutational analyses combined with functional activity assays demonstrate their importance for autophagy, thereby shedding light on this protein complex at the heart of autophagy.

Identifying SARS-CoV-2 antiviral compounds by screening for small molecule inhibitors of Nsp3 papain-like protease.

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as the biggest life-threatening disease of this century. Whilst vaccination should provide a long-term solution, this is pitted against the constant threat of mutations in the virus rendering the current vaccines less effective. Consequently, small molecule antiviral agents would be extremely useful to complement the vaccination program. The causative agent of COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which encodes at least nine enzymatic activities that all have drug targeting potential. The papain-like protease (PLpro) contained in the nsp3 protein generates viral non-structural proteins from a polyprotein precursor, and cleaves ubiquitin and ISG protein conjugates. Here we describe the expression and purification of PLpro. We developed a protease assay that was used to screen a custom compound library from which we identified dihydrotanshinone I and Ro 08-2750 as compounds that inhibit PLpro in protease and isopeptidase assays and also inhibit viral replication in cell culture-based assays.

Identifying SARS-CoV-2 antiviral compounds by screening for small molecule inhibitors of Nsp5 main protease.

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spread around the world with unprecedented health and socio-economic effects for the global population. While different vaccines are now being made available, very few antiviral drugs have been approved. The main viral protease (nsp5) of SARS-CoV-2 provides an excellent target for antivirals, due to its essential and conserved function in the viral replication cycle. We have expressed, purified and developed assays for nsp5 protease activity. We screened the nsp5 protease against a custom chemical library of over 5000 characterised pharmaceuticals. We identified calpain inhibitor I and three different peptidyl fluoromethylketones (FMK) as inhibitors of nsp5 activity in vitro, with IC50 values in the low micromolar range. By altering the sequence of our peptidomimetic FMK inhibitors to better mimic the substrate sequence of nsp5, we generated an inhibitor with a subnanomolar IC50. Calpain inhibitor I inhibited viral infection in monkey-derived Vero E6 cells, with an EC50 in the low micromolar range. The most potent and commercially available peptidyl-FMK compound inhibited viral growth in Vero E6 cells to some extent, while our custom peptidyl FMK inhibitor offered a marked antiviral improvement.

An improved method for the incorporation of fluoromethyl ketones into solid phase peptide synthesis techniques.

An improved and expedient technique for the synthesis of peptidyl-fluoromethyl ketones is described. The methodology is based on prior coupling of an aspartate fluoromethyl ketone to a linker and mounting it onto resin-bound methylbenzhydrylamine hydrochloride. Subsequently, by utilising standard Fmoc peptide procedures, a number of short Z-protected peptides were synthesised and assessed as possible inhibitors of the main protease from SARS-CoV-2 (3CLpro).

SARS-CoV-2 detection by a clinical diagnostic RT-LAMP assay.

The ongoing pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 calls for rapid and cost-effective methods to accurately identify infected individuals. The vast majority of patient samples is assessed for viral RNA presence by RT-qPCR. Our biomedical research institute, in collaboration between partner hospitals and an accredited clinical diagnostic laboratory, established a diagnostic testing pipeline that has reported on more than 252,000 RT-qPCR results since its commencement at the beginning of April 2020. However, due to ongoing demand and competition for critical resources, alternative testing strategies were sought. In this work, we present a clinically-validated procedure for high-throughput SARS-CoV-2 detection by RT-LAMP in 25 minutes that is robust, reliable, repeatable, sensitive, specific, and inexpensive.

Identification of chlorophyll a-b binding protein AB96 as a novel TGFß1 neutralizing agent.

The discovery of compounds and proteins from plants has greatly contributed to modern medicine. Vernonia amygdalina Del. (Compositae) is used by humans and primates for a variety of conditions including parasitic infection. This paper describes the serendipitous discovery that V. amygdalina extract was able to bind to, and functionally inhibit, active TGFß1. The binding agent was isolated and identified as chlorophyll a-b binding protein AB96. Given that active TGFß1 contributes to the pathology of many infectious diseases, inhibiting these processes may explain some of the benefits associated with the ingestion of this species. This is the first plant-derived cytokine-neutralizing protein to be described and paves the way for further such discoveries.

Phosphorylation of the LIR Domain of SCOC Modulates ATG8 Binding Affinity and Specificity.

Autophagy is a highly conserved degradative pathway, essential for cellular homeostasis and implicated in diseases including cancer and neurodegeneration. Autophagy-related 8 (ATG8) proteins play a central role in autophagosome formation and selective delivery of cytoplasmic cargo to lysosomes by recruiting autophagy adaptors and receptors. The LC3-interacting region (LIR) docking site (LDS) of ATG8 proteins binds to LIR motifs present in autophagy adaptors and receptors. LIR-ATG8 interactions can be highly selective for specific mammalian ATG8 family members (LC3A-C, GABARAP, and GABARAPL1-2) and how this specificity is generated and regulated is incompletely understood. We have identified a LIR motif in the Golgi protein SCOC (short coiled-coil protein) exhibiting strong binding to GABARAP, GABARAPL1, LC3A and LC3C. The residues within and surrounding the core LIR motif of the SCOC LIR domain were phosphorylated by autophagy-related kinases (ULK1-3, TBK1) increasing specifically LC3 family binding. More distant flanking residues also contributed to ATG8 binding. Loss of these residues was compensated by phosphorylation of serine residues immediately adjacent to the core LIR motif, indicating that the interactions of the flanking LIR regions with the LDS are important and highly dynamic. Our comprehensive structural, biophysical and biochemical analyses support and provide novel mechanistic insights into how phosphorylation of LIR domain residues regulates the affinity and binding specificity of ATG8 proteins towards autophagy adaptors and receptors.

Notum deacylates octanoylated ghrelin.

OBJECTIVES: The only proteins known to be modified by O-linked lipidation are Wnts and ghrelin, and enzymatic removal of this post-translational modification inhibits ligand activity. Indeed, the Wnt-deacylase activity of Notum is the basis of its ability to act as a feedback inhibitor of Wnt signalling. Whether Notum also deacylates ghrelin has not been determined. METHODS: We used mass spectrometry to assay ghrelin deacylation by Notum and co-crystallisation to reveal enzyme-substrate interactions at the atomic level. CRISPR/Cas technology was used to tag endogenous Notum and assess its localisation in mice while liver-specific Notum knock-out mice allowed us to investigate the physiological role of Notum in modulating the level of ghrelin deacylation. RESULTS: Mass spectrometry detected the removal of octanoyl from ghrelin by purified active Notum but not by an inactive mutant. The 2.2 Å resolution crystal structure of the Notum-ghrelin complex showed that the octanoyl lipid was accommodated in the hydrophobic pocket of the Notum. The knock-in allele expressing HA-tagged Notum revealed that Notum was produced in the liver and present in the bloodstream, albeit at a low level. Liver-specific inactivation of Notum in animals fed a high-fat diet led to a small but significant increase in acylated ghrelin in the circulation, while no such increase was seen in wild-type animals on the same diet. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our data demonstrate that Notum can act as a ghrelin deacylase, and that this may be physiologically relevant under high-fat diet conditions. Our study therefore adds Notum to the list of enzymes, including butyrylcholinesterase and other carboxylesterases, that modulate the acylation state of ghrelin. The contribution of multiple enzymes could help tune the activity of this important hormone to a wide range of physiological conditions.

Single-molecule analysis reveals cooperative stimulation of Rad51 filament nucleation and growth by mediator proteins.

Homologous recombination (HR) is an essential DNA double-strand break (DSB) repair mechanism, which is frequently inactivated in cancer. During HR, RAD51 forms nucleoprotein filaments on RPA-coated, resected DNA and catalyzes strand invasion into homologous duplex DNA. How RAD51 displaces RPA and assembles into long HR-proficient filaments remains uncertain. Here, we employed single-molecule imaging to investigate the mechanism of nematode RAD-51 filament growth in the presence of BRC-2 (BRCA2) and RAD-51 paralogs, RFS-1/RIP-1. BRC-2 nucleates RAD-51 on RPA-coated DNA, whereas RFS-1/RIP-1 acts as a "chaperone" to promote 3' to 5' filament growth via highly dynamic engagement with 5' filament ends. Inhibiting ATPase or mutation in the RFS-1 Walker box leads to RFS-1/RIP-1 retention on RAD-51 filaments and hinders growth. The rfs-1 Walker box mutants display sensitivity to DNA damage and accumulate RAD-51 complexes non-functional for HR in vivo. Our work reveals the mechanism of RAD-51 nucleation and filament growth in the presence of recombination mediators.