How useful are genomic data for predicting maladaptation to future climate?

Methods using genomic information to forecast potential population maladaptation to climate change or new environments are becoming increasingly common, yet the lack of model validation poses serious hurdles toward their incorporation into management and policy. Here, we compare the validation of maladaptation estimates derived from two methods-Gradient Forests (GFoffset) and the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA)-using exome capture pool-seq data from 35 to 39 populations across three conifer taxa: two Douglas-fir varieties and jack pine. We evaluate sensitivity of these algorithms to the source of input loci (markers selected from genotype-environment associations [GEA] or those selected at random). We validate these methods against 2- and 52-year growth and mortality measured in independent transplant experiments. Overall, we find that both methods often better predict transplant performance than climatic or geographic distances. We also find that GFoffset and RONA models are surprisingly not improved using GEA candidates. Even with promising validation results, variation in model projections to future climates makes it difficult to identify the most maladapted populations using either method. Our work advances understanding of the sensitivity and applicability of these approaches, and we discuss recommendations for their future use.

Haploid, diploid, and pooled exome capture recapitulate features of biology and paralogy in two non-model tree species.

Despite their suitability for studying evolution, many conifer species have large and repetitive giga-genomes (16-31 Gbp) that create hurdles to producing high coverage SNP data sets that capture diversity from across the entirety of the genome. Due in part to multiple ancient whole genome duplication events, gene family expansion and subsequent evolution within Pinaceae, false diversity from the misalignment of paralog copies creates further challenges in accurately and reproducibly inferring evolutionary history from sequence data. Here, we leverage the cost-saving benefits of pool-seq and exome-capture to discover SNPs in two conifer species, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco, Pinaceae) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb., Pinaceae). We show, using minimal baseline filtering, that allele frequencies estimated from pooled individuals show a strong, positive correlation with those estimated by sequencing the same population as individuals (r > .948), on par with such comparisons made in model organisms. Further, we highlight the utility of haploid megagametophyte tissue for identifying sites that are probably due to misaligned paralogs. Together with additional minor filtering, we show that it is possible to remove many of the loci with large frequency estimate discrepancies between individual and pooled sequencing approaches, improving the correlation further (r > .973). Our work addresses bioinformatic challenges in non-model organisms with large and complex genomes, highlights the use of megagametophyte tissue for the identification of paralogous artefacts, and suggests the combination of pool-seq and exome capture to be robust for further evolutionary hypothesis testing in these systems.

Close relatives of Mediterranean endemo-relict hoverflies (Diptera, Syrphidae) in South Africa: Morphological and molecular evidence in the Merodon melanocerus subgroup.

An ongoing study of the genus Merodon Meigen, 1803 in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) has revealed the existence of new species related to M. melanocerus Bezzi, 1915. The M. melanocerus subgroup belongs to the Afrotropical lineage of the M. desuturinus group. Revision of all available material from museums and detailed analyses of newly -collected specimens from our own expeditions to RSA resulted in delimitation of five species: M. capensis Hurkmans sp. n., M. commutabilis Radenkovic et Vujic sp. n., M. drakonis Vujic et Radenkovic sp. n., M. flavocerus Hurkmans sp. n. and M. melanocerus. In addition to classical morphological characters, sequences of the mitochondrial COI gene are provided for four related taxa. Results of molecular phylogenetic analyses supports monophyly of the M. desuturinus group and confirmed delimitation between species. Links between Palaearctic and Afrotropical faunas of this group, as well as possible evolutionary paths, are discussed. Based on phylogenetic analyses, four lineages (putative subgenera) have been recognized within the genus Merodon; besides the three previously established ones, albifrons+desuturinus, aureus (sensu lato) and avidus-nigritarsis, one new lineage named natans is distinguished.

Molecular and Morphological Inference of Three Cryptic Species within the Merodon aureus Species Group (Diptera: Syrphidae).

The Merodon aureus species group (Diptera: Syrphidae: Eristalinae) comprises a number of different sub-groups and species complexes. In this study we focus on resolving the taxonomic status of the entity previously identified as M. cinereus B, here identified as M. atratus species complex. We used an integrative approach based on morphological descriptions, combined with supporting characters that were obtained from molecular analyses of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene as well as from geometric morphometry of wing and surstylus shapes and environmental niche comparisons. All applied data and methods distinguished and supported three morphologically cryptic species: M. atratus stat. nov., M. virgatus sp. nov. and M. balkanicus sp. nov., which constitute the M. atratus species complex. We present an identification key for the sub-groups and species complexes of the M. aureus species group occurring in Europe, describe the taxa and discuss the utility of the applied methods for species delimitation. The estimated divergence times for the species splits of these taxa coincide with the Pleistocene Günz-Mindel interglaciation and the Great interglaciation (between the Ris and Mindel glacial periods).