Comprehensive assessment of germline pathogenic variant detection in tumor-only sequencing.

BACKGROUND: Tumor-only sequencing, implemented for the identification of somatic variants, is oftentimes used for the detection of actionable germline variants. We sought to determine whether tumor-only sequencing assays are suitable for detection of actionable germline variants, given their importance for the delivery of targeted therapies and risk-reducing measures. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The detection of germline variants affecting moderate- and high-penetrance cancer susceptibility genes (CSGs) by tumor-only sequencing was compared to clinical germline testing in 21 333 cancer patients who underwent tumor and germline testing using the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-authorized Memorial Sloan Kettering-Integrated Mutation Profiling of Actionable Targets (MSK-IMPACT) assay. Seven homologous recombination deficiency (HRD), two DNA damage response (DDR) and four mismatch repair (MMR) genes, as well as NF1, RB1 and TP53 were included in the analysis. FDA-authorized and New York State Department of Health-approved sequencing methods for germline, tumor/normal and tumor-only sequencing assays and analytical pipelines were employed. RESULTS: In patients who underwent tumor and germline sequencing, as compared to clinical genetic testing, tumor-only sequencing failed to detect 10.5% of clinically actionable pathogenic germline variants in CSGs, including 18.8%, 12.8% and 7.3% of germline variants in MMR, DDR and HRD genes, respectively. The sensitivity for detection of pathogenic germline variants by tumor-only sequencing was 89.5%. Whilst the vast majority of pathogenic germline exonic single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) and small indels were detected by tumor-only sequencing, large percentages of germline copy number variants, intronic variants and repetitive element insertions were not detected. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor-only sequencing is adequate for the detection of clinically actionable germline variants, particularly for SNVs and small indels; however, a small subset of alterations affecting HRD, DDR and MMR genes may not be detected optimally. Therefore, for high-risk patients with negative tumor-only sequencing results, clinical genetic testing could be considered given the impact of these variants on therapy and genetic counseling.

A case report of concurrent embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in an adult without identifiable cancer predisposition.

BACKGROUND: Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Rhabdomyosarcoma, the most common soft tissue sarcoma of childhood. makes up less than 1% of solid malignancies in adults with around 400 new cases each year in the United States. They have not previously been reported concurrently. CASE PRESENTATION: A 37 year old woman presented with painful enlarging leg mass. Biopsy of the mass was consistent with embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma. Staging imaging revealed a PET avid anterior mediastinal lymph node. Excisional biopsy of this mass was consistent with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Hybridization capture-based next-generation DNA sequencing did not reveal shared somatic tumor mutations. Germline analysis did not show identifiable aberrations of TP53 or other heritable cancer susceptibility genes. She was treated with a personalized chemotherapy regimen combining features of R-CHOP and Children's Oncology Group ARST 0331. CONCLUSIONS: This case illustrates a unique clinical entity successfully treated with a personalized chemotherapeutic regimen.

An analysis of the association between prostate cancer risk loci, PSA levels, disease aggressiveness and disease-specific mortality.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple single-nucleotide polymorphsims (SNPs) associated with prostate cancer (PCa). Although these SNPs have been clearly associated with disease risk, their relationship with clinical outcomes is less clear. Our aim was to assess the frequency of known PCa susceptibility alleles within a single institution ascertainment and to correlate risk alleles with disease-specific outcomes. METHODS: We genotyped 1354 individuals treated for localised PCa between June 1988 and December 2007. Blood samples were prospectively collected and de-identified before being genotyped and matched to phenotypic data. We investigated associations between 61 SNPs and disease-specific end points using multivariable analysis and also determined if SNPs were associated with PSA at diagnosis. RESULTS: Seven SNPs showed associations on multivariable analysis (P<0.05), rs13385191 with both biochemical recurrence (BR) and castrate metastasis (CM), rs339331 (BR), rs1894292, rs17178655 and rs11067228 (CM), and rs11902236 and rs4857841 PCa-specific mortality. After applying a Bonferroni correction for number of SNPs (P<0.0008), the only persistent significant association was between rs17632542 (KLK3) and PSA levels at diagnosis (P=1.4 × 10(-5)). CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed that rs17632542 in KLK3 is associated with PSA at diagnosis. No significant association was seen between loci and disease-specific end points when accounting for multiple testing. This provides further evidence that known PCa risk SNPs do not predict likelihood of disease progression.

Germline single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with response of urothelial carcinoma to platinum-based therapy: the role of the host.

BACKGROUND: Variations in urothelial carcinoma (UC) response to platinum chemotherapy are common and frequently attributed to genetic and epigenetic variations of somatic DNA. We hypothesized that variations in germline DNA may contribute to UC chemosensitivity. PATIENTS AND METHODS: DNA from 210 UC patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy was genotyped for 80 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Logistic regression was used to examine the association between SNPs and response, and a multivariable predictive model was created. Significant SNPs were combined to form a SNP score predicting response. Eleven UC cell lines were genotyped as validation. RESULTS: Six SNPs were significantly associated with 101 complete or partial responses (48%). Four SNPs retained independence association and were incorporated into a response prediction model. Each additional risk allele was associated with a nearly 50% decrease in odds of response [odds ratio (OR) = 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.65, P = 1.05 × 10(-7)). The bootstrap-adjusted area under the curves of this model was greater than clinical prognostic factors alone (0.78 versus 0.64). The SNP score showed a positive trend with chemosensitivity in cell lines (P = 0.115). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants associated with response of UC to platinum-based therapy were identified in germline DNA. A model using these genetic variants may predict response to chemotherapy better than clinical factors alone.

Genetic architecture of prostate cancer in the Ashkenazi Jewish population.

BACKGROUND: Recently, numerous prostate cancer risk loci have been identified, some of which show association in specific populations. No study has yet investigated whether these single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with prostate cancer in the Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population. METHODS: A total of 29 known prostate cancer risk SNPs were genotyped in 963 prostate cancer cases and 613 controls of AJ ancestry. These data were combined with data from 1241 additional Ashkenazi controls and tested for association with prostate cancer. Correction for multiple testing was performed using the false discovery rate procedure. RESULTS: Ten of twenty-three SNPs that passed quality control procedures were associated with prostate cancer risk at a false discovery rate of 5%. Of these, nine were originally discovered in studies of individuals of European ancestry. Based on power calculations, the number of significant associations observed is not surprising. CONCLUSION: We see no convincing evidence that the genetic architecture of prostate cancer in the AJ population is substantively different from that observed in other populations of European ancestry.

Relative contributions of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations to "triple-negative" breast cancer in Ashkenazi Women.

Approximately 10% of Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women with breast cancer (BC) carry a founder mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2. There is an association between BRCA1 mutations and "triple-negative" breast cancer (TNBC) [estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) negative, HER2 negative]. We sought to determine the predictive value of the TNBC phenotype for the presence of a BRCA mutation in AJ women ascertained without respect to family history. DNA samples were collected between 8/2000 and 6/2004 from a prevalent cohort of unselected AJ women with breast cancer (median age at diagnosis 56 years). Samples (n = 451) were genotyped for AJ founder mutations. 352 (78.0%) cancers were ER positive, 254 (56.3%) PR positive, and 91 (20.2%) ER negative/PR negative. 63 (14.0%) cancers were HER2 positive (immunohistochemistry 3+ or FISH >2.2). TNBC was observed in 64 patients (14.2%). Founder mutations were detected in 48 samples (10.6%) including 25/64 TNBC (39.1%; 19 BRCA1, 6 BRCA2). Among TNBC patients with family history (FH) information, 6/15 (40%) mutations were found in women without breast or ovarian cancer in a close relative. The positive predictive value of TNBC for a BRCA1 mutation was 30% overall, 50% in women diagnosed<50 years, and 14% in women diagnosed ≥50. TNBC was significantly associated with detecting a mutation in either BRCA1 or BRCA2, but only 25/52 (48%) mutation-associated cancers were TNBC. The prevalence of BRCA founder mutations exceeds 50% in subsets of AJ women with TNBC. FH is an imperfect predictor of mutation status in this group. A significant number of mutation-associated TNBC are due to BRCA2.

Discriminatory accuracy and potential clinical utility of genomic profiling for breast cancer risk in BRCA-negative women.

Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. The clinical utility of genotyping individuals at these loci is not known. Subjects were 519 unaffected women without BRCA mutations. Gail, Claus, and IBIS models were used to estimate absolute breast cancer risks. Subjects were then genotyped at 15 independent risk loci. Published per-allele and genotype-specific odds ratios were used to calculate the composite cumulative genomic risk (CGR) for each subject. Affected age- and ethnicity-matched BRCA mutation-negative women were also genotyped as a comparison group for the calculation of discriminatory accuracy. The CGR was used to adjust absolute breast cancer risks calculated by Gail, Claus and IBIS models to determine the proportion of subjects whose recommendations for chemoprevention or MRI screening might be altered (reclassified) by such adjustment. Mean lifetime breast cancer risks calculated using the Gail, Claus, and IBIS models were 19.4, 13.0, and 17.7%, respectively. CGR did not correlate with breast cancer risk as calculated using any model. CGR was significantly higher in affected women (mean 3.35 vs. 3.12, P = 0.009). The discriminatory accuracy of the CGR alone was 0.55 (SE 0.019; P = 0.006). CGR adjustment of model-derived absolute risk estimates would have altered clinical recommendations for chemoprevention in 11-19% of subjects and for MRI screening in 8-32%. CGR has limited discriminatory accuracy. However, the use of a genomic risk term to adjust model-derived estimates has the potential to alter individual recommendations. These observations warrant investigation to evaluate the calibration of adjusted risk estimates.

Survival in epithelial ovarian cancer: a multivariate analysis incorporating BRCA mutation status and platinum sensitivity.

BACKGROUND: Patients with BRCA-associated ovarian cancer (OC) have a survival advantage over those with sporadic OC. To further explore this, we examined the impact of prognostic factors on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with known BRCA mutation status. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We reviewed stage III-IV OC patients treated at our institution between 1 December 1996 and 30 September 2006 and also tested on protocol for BRCA mutations. Impact on DFS and OS was determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Of the 110 patients, 36 had deleterious BRCA mutations [BRCA (+)] and 74 were BRCA wild type [BRCA(-)]. Thirty-one of 36 (86%) BRCA (+) and 60 of 74 (81%) BRCA (-) patients were platinum sensitive (P = 0.60). Median OS was longer for BRCA (+) patients (not reached versus 67.8 months; P = 0.02), but DFS was similar (26.9 versus 24.0, P = 0.3). On multivariate analysis, OS correlated with primary platinum sensitivity [HR = 0.15; 95% CI (confidence interval) 0.06-0.34] and BRCA (+) mutation status (HR = 0.33; 95% CI 0.12-0.86). CONCLUSIONS: BRCA mutation status predicted OS independent of primary platinum sensitivity, suggesting that underlying tumor biology contributes to disease outcome and may be worthy of consideration in future clinical trial design.

A large-scale meta-analysis to refine colorectal cancer risk estimates associated with MUTYH variants.

BACKGROUND: defective DNA repair has a causal role in hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC). Defects in the base excision repair gene MUTYH are responsible for MUTYH-associated polyposis and CRC predisposition as an autosomal recessive trait. Numerous reports have suggested MUTYH mono-allelic variants to be low penetrance risk alleles. We report a large collaborative meta-analysis to assess and refine CRC risk estimates associated with bi-allelic and mono-allelic MUTYH variants and investigate age and sex influence on risk. METHODS: MUTYH genotype data were included from 20 565 cases and 15 524 controls. Three logistic regression models were tested: a crude model; adjusted for age and sex; adjusted for age, sex and study. RESULTS: all three models produced very similar results. MUTYH bi-allelic carriers demonstrated a 28-fold increase in risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.95-115). Significant bi-allelic effects were also observed for G396D and Y179C/G396D compound heterozygotes and a marginal mono-allelic effect for variant Y179C (odds ratio (OR)=1.34; 95% CI: 1.00-1.80). A pooled meta-analysis of all published and unpublished datasets submitted showed bi-allelic effects for MUTYH, G396D and Y179C (OR=10.8, 95% CI: 5.02-23.2; OR=6.47, 95% CI: 2.33-18.0; OR=3.35, 95% CI: 1.14-9.89) and marginal mono-allelic effect for variants MUTYH (OR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.34) and Y179C alone (OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.01-1.77). CONCLUSIONS: overall, this large study refines estimates of disease risk associated with mono-allelic and bi-allelic MUTYH carriers.

Breast cancer risks in individuals testing negative for a known family mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2.

Genetic testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in family members of individuals with known deleterious mutations can distinguish between patients at high risk of disease and those who are not. Some studies have suggested that individuals testing negative for known familial mutations (true negatives), may still have a higher risk of breast cancer (BC) than the general population. We have examined a prospectively followed cohort of true negative women in the US. Subjects were close relatives of known BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers who had undergone genetic testing, were negative for the known familial mutation, and were unaffected at the time of genetic testing. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using SEER incidence rates. Among 375 true negatives, two invasive and two in situ BC and no ovarian cancers were diagnosed with mean follow up of 4.9 years (total of 1,962 person years).Four invasive BC were expected, whereas two were observed, for an age-adjusted SIR of 0.52 (95% CI 0.13-2.09). We observed more cases of in situ BC (n = 2) than were expected (n = 0.9; SIR = 2.30; 95% CI 0.57-9.19).There were no cases of ovarian cancer observed; 0.4 case was expected. In this prospective study of women who were unaffected at the time of genetic testing and who were negative for the known familial mutation in BRCA1/2, no excess risk of invasive BC was observed. Our data suggest that such women in the US should adhere to population based guidelines for breast cancer screening.

Accuracy of BRCA1 and BRCA2 founder mutation analysis in formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue.

BACKGROUND: A major limitation in counseling unaffected women from families with inherited breast and ovarian cancer is that a "true-negative" interpretation of wild type BRCA analysis of the proband cannot be inferred in the absence of demonstration of a BRCA mutation segregating in the kindred. Documentation of familial BRCA mutations from paraffin-derived DNA of deceased patients has been limited due to reports of technical complications leading to lack of reproducibility of BRCA testing of archival material. METHODS: DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) morphologically normal tissue of 161 blinded, coded samples from women previously genotyped for the three Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA founder mutations from lymphocyte-derived DNA. Multiplex PCR followed by denaturing polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was performed for the three founder mutations to determine if analysis on FFPE tissue could produce results concordant with those of the lymphocyte-derived DNA. RESULTS: After disclosure of the sample codes, the results were compared with the original lymphocyte-derived DNA genotypes. Excluding one sample unevaluable due to PCR failure, there was 100% concordance of 160 genotypes (120 mutation samples) derived from DNA from archival FFPE tissue compared to peripheral lymphocytes. CONCLUSIONS: The method described reliably detected BRCA founder mutations in archival DNA derived from FFPE tissue. These results suggests that this technique may be useful in clinical settings to inform wild type BRCA results of unaffected probands, leading to avoidance of unnecessary intensified surveillance or risk-reducing surgery. With further validation this approach can also be applied to other populations where founder mutations are observed.

Referral for cancer genetics consultation: a review and compilation of risk assessment criteria.

BACKGROUND: There have been many papers on the diagnostic criteria for specific hereditary cancer susceptibility syndromes and the likelihood that an individual has a germline mutation in one of the various cancer susceptibility genes. To assist health care professionals in deciding when a cancer genetics consultation is appropriate, available reports were critically reviewed in order to develop a single set of risk assessment criteria. METHODS: The criteria were based on a comprehensive review of publications describing diagnostic criteria for hereditary cancer syndromes and risk to first degree relatives of cancer patients. Priority was given to diagnostic criteria from consensus statements (for example, those from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network). Expert opinion from study personnel was then used to adopt a single set of criteria from other publications whenever guidelines differed. RESULTS: Based on family history, a set of criteria was developed to identify patients at risk for a hereditary cancer susceptibility syndrome, patients with moderate risk who might benefit from increased cancer surveillance, and patients who are at average risk. The criteria were applied to 4360 individuals who provided their cancer family history between July 1999 and April 2002, using a touch screen computer system in the lobby of a comprehensive cancer centre. They categorised an acceptable number of users into each risk level: 14.9% high risk, 13.7% moderate risk, and 59.6% average risk; 11.8% provided insufficient information for risk assessment. CONCLUSIONS: These criteria should improve ease of referral and promote consistency across centres when evaluating patients for referral to cancer genetics specialists.

The founder mutation MSH2*1906G-->C is an important cause of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer in the Ashkenazi Jewish population.

Hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) is caused by mutations in the mismatch-repair genes. We report here the identification and characterization of a founder mutation in MSH2 in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. We identified a nucleotide substitution, MSH2*1906G-->C, which results in a substitution of proline for alanine at codon 636 in the MSH2 protein. This allele was identified in 15 unrelated Ashkenazi Jewish families with HNPCC, most of which meet the Amsterdam criteria. Genotype analysis of 18 polymorphic loci within and flanking MSH2 suggested a single origin for the mutation. All colorectal cancers tested showed microsatellite instability and absence of MSH2 protein, by immunohistochemical analysis. In an analysis of a population-based incident series of 686 Ashkenazi Jews from Israel who have colorectal cancer, we identified 3 (0.44%) mutation carriers. Persons with a family history of colorectal or endometrial cancer were more likely to carry the mutation than were those without such a family history (P=.042), and those with colorectal cancer who carried the mutation were, on average, younger than affected individuals who did not carry it (P=.033). The mutation was not detected in either 566 unaffected Ashkenazi Jews from Israel or 1,022 control individuals from New York. In hospital-based series, the 1906C allele was identified in 5/463 Ashkenazi Jews with colorectal cancer, in 2/197 with endometrial cancer, and in 0/83 with ovarian cancer. When families identified by family history and in case series are included, 25 apparently unrelated Ashkenazi Jewish families have been found to harbor this mutation. Although this pathogenic mutation is not frequent in the Ashkenazi Jewish population (accounting for 2%-3% of colorectal cancer in those whose age at diagnosis is <60 years), it is highly penetrant and accounts for approximately one-third of HNPCC in Ashkenazi Jewish families that fulfill the Amsterdam criteria.

Analysis of mismatch repair defects in the familial occurrence of lymphoma and colorectal cancer.

Hereditary non-polyposis colon cancer (HNPCC) is an autosomal dominant disorder featuring familial clustering of colorectal and/or endometrial cancer, and other malignancies. Except for a rare case report, Hodgkin's disease (HD) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) have not been considered part of HNPCC. Recent murine models for HNPCC have shown an increased incidence of B- and T-cell lymphoma, as well as tumors of the gastrointestinal tract and other organ systems, involving defects in genes resulting in faulty mismatch repair (MMR) of DNA. These MMR genes include MLH1, MSH2, MSH3, MSH6, PMS1 and PMS2. We sought to analyze the occurrence of NHL and HD in families with clusters of colorectal cancers (CRC). Probands from 21 kindreds were classified as HNPCC (3), HNPCC-like (5), and HNPCC-variant (13); seen and followed by Clinical Genetics at Memorial Hospital the kindreds were assessed for the occurrence of NHL or HD. Of the 21 pedigrees, a total of 37 patients were identified who were diagnosed with leukemia, lymphoma, or HD. Fourteen of the 37 patients with a diagnosis of NHL or HD were further classified and showed varying histologies ranging from chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (2), mycosis fungoides (1), follicular lymphoma (1), extranodal marginal zone lymphoma of MALT type (2), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (4), nodular sclerosis HD (3), and mixed cellularity HD (1). Microsatellite instability studies were performed on 6 cases but none showed evidence of replication error repair defects. Immunohistochemical stains performed on paraffin sections from these 6 representative cases showed differential protein expression of MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 when compared to normal reactive tissues from the same patient but showed no significant differences when compared to controls of non-familial, sporadic lymphomas. These results suggest that lymphomas arising in the setting of familial CRC do not bear the molecular hallmarks of HNPCC. Further studies are needed to explain the differential patterns of expression of RER-associated proteins in lymphomas, as well as the association of lymphomas and possibly renal cell cancers in a subset of kindreds in which CRC clustering is evident.

Insurance reimbursement for risk-reducing mastectomy and oophorectomy in women with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

PURPOSE: Risk-reducing surgery is an important option for women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. There are reports in the literature that insurance reimbursement for these procedures varies greatly. Because health insurance coverage significantly affects medical decision-making, current information regarding reimbursement practices of third-party payers is needed. METHODS: Retrospective study of hospital billing records of 38 women with documented BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations who underwent either a risk-reducing mastectomy or a risk-reducing oophorectomy between March 1, 1997, and July 30, 2000. RESULTS: Complete billing and reimbursement information was available for 35 women undergoing a total of 39 risk-reducing surgeries. A total of 38 of 39 (97%) risk-reducing surgeries were covered in full, less applicable coinsurance and deductibles. The rate of insurance reimbursement did not vary with type of insurance, personal history of cancer, or type of procedure. CONCLUSION: Insurance carriers reimbursed the vast majority of BRCA mutation carriers undergoing risk-reducing surgery.

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5' untranslated region of RAD51 and risk of cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

RAD51 colocalizes with both BRCA1 and BRCA2, and genetic variants in RAD51 would be candidate BRCA1/2 modifiers. We searched for RAD51 polymorphisms by sequencing 20 individuals. We compared the polymorphism allele frequencies between female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with and without breast or ovarian cancer and between population-based ovarian cancer cases with BRCA1/2 mutations to cases and controls without mutations. We discovered two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at positions 135 g-->c and 172 g-->t of the 5' untranslated region. In an initial group of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, 14 (21%) of 67 breast cancer cases carried a "c" allele at RAD51:135 g-->c, whereas 8 (7%) of 119 women without breast cancer carried this allele. In a second set of 466 mutation carriers from three centers, the association of RAD51:135 g-->c with breast cancer risk was not confirmed. Analyses restricted to the 216 BRCA2 mutation carriers, however, showed a statistically significant association of the 135 "c" allele with the risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence limit, 1.4-40). BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with ovarian cancer were only about one half as likely to carry the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP. Analysis of the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP in 738 subjects from an Israeli ovarian cancer case-control study was consistent with a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with the "c" allele. We have identified a RAD51 5' untranslated region SNP that may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA2 mutation carriers. The biochemical basis of this risk modifier is currently unknown.

The lifetime risks of breast cancer in Ashkenazi Jewish carriers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.

Several studies using families with multiple occurrences of breast cancer have provided evidence for a very high lifetime penetrance in carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. However, there are reasons to suspect that the estimates of penetrance from studies of cancer families may be inflated. Access to the genotypes of incident cases of breast cancer in three hospitals and from a large series of unaffected survey participants provided the basis for direct estimation of the age-specific relative risks attributable to these mutations, and the resulting lifetime penetrance, without any reference to familial aggregation of cancer. Cases were identified from incident series of Jewish patients treated for primary breast cancer at the three hospitals. Control data were obtained from the large series of Jewish women recruited in the Washington, D.C., area by investigators at the National Cancer Institute and limited to 3434 women with no previous history of breast or ovarian cancer. All subjects were genotyped for the three mutations that are relatively common in Ashkenazi Jews, namely 185delAG and 5382 insC in BRCA1 and 6174delT in BRCA2. For BRCA1, the relative risks of breast cancer were estimated to be 21.6 in women under 40 years of age, 9.6 in women 40-49 years of age, and 7.6 in women > or = 50 years of age. On the basis of these estimates, the penetrance of breast cancer at age 70 among BRCA1 mutation carriers is estimated to be 46% (95% confidence, 31%-80%) rising to 59% (95% confidence, 40%-93%) at age 80. For BRCA2, the relative risks in the same three age categories were estimated to be 3.3, 3.3, and 4.6, respectively, resulting in a penetrance at age 70 of 26% (95% confidence, 14%-50%) rising to 38% (95% confidence, 20%-68%) at age 80. The lifetime risk of breast cancer in Jewish women who are mutation carriers estimated via this approach is substantially lower than the reported lifetime risks estimated using multiple-case families. The risks appear to be different for carriers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.