RESUMEN
To investigate epidemiology of and risk factors for laboratory-confirmed mpox during the 2022 outbreak in Nigeria, we enrolled 265 persons with suspected mpox. A total of 163 (61.5%) were confirmed to have mpox; 137 (84.0%) were adults, 112 (68.7%) male, 143 (87.7%) urban/semi-urban dwellers, 12 (7.4%) self-reported gay men, and 3 (1.8%) female sex workers. Significant risk factors for adults were sexual and nonsexual contact with persons who had mpox, as well as risky sexual behavior. For children, risk factors were close contact with an mpox-positive person and prior animal exposure. Odds of being mpox positive were higher for adults with HIV and lower for those co-infected with varicella zoster virus (VZV). No children were HIV-seropositive; odds of being mpox positive were higher for children with VZV infection. Our findings indicate mpox affects primarily adults in Nigeria, partially driven by sexual activity; childhood cases were driven by close contact, animal exposure, and VZV co-infection.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades , Humanos , Nigeria/epidemiología , Femenino , Masculino , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto , Niño , Adolescente , Adulto Joven , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mpox/epidemiología , Mpox/virología , Preescolar , Conducta Sexual , Lactante , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Research from sub-Saharan Africa that contributes to our understanding of the 2022 mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) global outbreak is insufficient. Here, we describe the clinical presentation and predictors of severe disease among patients with mpox diagnosed between Feb 1, 2022, and Jan 30, 2023 in Nigeria. METHODS: We did a cohort study among laboratory-confirmed and probable mpox cases seen in 22 mpox-treatment centres and outpatient clinics across Nigeria. All individuals with confirmed and probable mpox were eligible for inclusion. Exclusion criteria were individuals who could not be examined for clinical characterisation and those who had unknown mortality outcomes. Skin lesion swabs or crust samples were collected from each patient for mpox diagnosis by PCR. A structured questionnaire was used to document sociodemographic and clinical data, including HIV status, complications, and treatment outcomes from the time of diagnosis to discharge or death. Severe disease was defined as mpox associated with death or with a life-threatening complication. Two logistic regression models were used to identify clinical characteristics associated with severe disease and potential risk factors for severe disease. The primary outcome was the clinical characteristics of mpox and disease severity. FINDINGS: We enrolled 160 people with mpox from 22 states in Nigeria, including 134 (84%) adults, 114 (71%) males, 46 (29%) females, and 25 (16%) people with HIV. Of the 160 patients, distinct febrile prodrome (n=94, 59%), rash count greater than 250 (90, 56%), concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (n=48, 30%), and hospital admission (n=70, 48%) were observed. Nine (6%) of the 160 patients died, including seven (78%) deaths attributable to sepsis. The clinical features independently associated with severe disease were a rash count greater than 10â000 (adjusted odds ratio 26·1, 95% CI 5·2-135·0, p<0·0001) and confluent or semi-confluent rash (6·7, 95% CI 1·9-23·9). Independent risk factors for severe disease were concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (3·6, 95% CI 1·1-11·5) and advanced HIV disease (35·9, 95% CI 4·1-252·9). INTERPRETATION: During the 2022 global outbreak, mpox in Nigeria was more severe among those with advanced HIV disease and concomitant varicella zoster virus infection. Proactive screening, management of co-infections, the integration and strengthening of mpox and HIV surveillance, and preventive and treatment services should be prioritised in Nigeria and across Africa. FUNDING: None.
Asunto(s)
Varicela , Exantema , Infecciones por VIH , Herpes Zóster , Mpox , Infección por el Virus de la Varicela-Zóster , Adulto , Femenino , Masculino , Humanos , Nigeria/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Mpox/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported that general anxiety disorder manifestations differ in diverse settings. OBJECTIVE: To determine and compare the prevalence of probable anxiety disorders among in-school adolescents in urban and rural areas of Anambra State. METHODS: A total of 1187 in-school adolescents were recruited using a multi-stage sampling technique. The study instrument was an interviewer-administered pretested questionnaire adopted from General Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7). Data were analyzed with the IBM Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 22. RESULT: One hundred and twenty of the participants out of the 1187 (10.1%) were found to have probable generalized anxiety disorders using GAD-7 as screening tool. The prevalence of symptoms of anxiety disorder revealed that urban participants had a higher prevalence compared to their rural counterparts (11% vs. 8.8%), while females had a higher prevalence compared to the males in the ratio of 3:2 (or 12% vs. 8%). The prevalence of symptoms of anxiety disorders among females was higher than that of males even when compared based on a rural and urban settings. When all other variables are held constant, urban participants were found to have a 50% higher chance of being identified with anxiety disorders compared to their rural participants (OR = 1.500, C.I.:1.002-2.246, p = 0.049). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of probable anxiety disorders was found in 10% of the participants. The females have a higher propensity to exhibit symptoms of anxiety disorders than the males. Anxiety status affects how adolescents view their general health. The study started from the date of approval by the West African College of Physicians on the 21 February 2017, but Ethical Clearance from NAUTHEC was given on the 19th December 2016.
RESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.