What happened to the Second World? Earthquakes and postsocialism in Kazakhstan.

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re-examines the Second World in its historical context and re-establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.

Use of scenario ensembles for deriving seismic risk.

High death tolls from recent earthquakes show that seismic risk remains high globally. While there has been much focus on seismic hazard, large uncertainties associated with exposure and vulnerability have led to more limited analyses of the potential impacts of future earthquakes. We argue that as both exposure and vulnerability are reducible factors of risk, assessing their importance and variability allows for prioritization of the most effective disaster risk-reduction (DRR) actions. We address this through earthquake ensemble modeling, using the example of Nepal. We model fatalities from 90 different scenario earthquakes and establish whether impacts are specific to certain scenario earthquakes or occur irrespective of the scenario. Our results show that for most districts in Nepal impacts are not specific to the particular characteristics of a single earthquake, and that total modeled impacts are skewed toward the minimum estimate. These results suggest that planning for the worst-case scenario in Nepal may place an unnecessarily large burden on the limited resources available for DRR. We also show that the most at-risk districts are predominantly in rural western Nepal, with ∼9.5 million Nepalis inhabiting districts with higher seismic risk than Kathmandu. Our proposed approach provides a holistic consideration of seismic risk for informing contingency planning and allows the relative importance of the reducible components of risk (exposure and vulnerability) to be estimated, highlighting factors that can be targeted most effectively. We propose this approach for informing contingency planning, especially in locations where information on the likelihood of future earthquakes is inadequate.

Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.