Risk assessment for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) in air, blood serum and water: mortality from liver and kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Cancer and non-cancer associations have been observed with PFAS (perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl) substances in the general population, in populations from locally contaminated environments and in exposed workers. METHODS: A quantitative risk assessment on the PFAS substance perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was conducted for six outcomes using two occupational mortality studies that reported sufficient data to estimate exposure-relationships in relation to serum PFOA levels. Excess lifetime mortality risks were calculated using a life table procedure that applies an exposure response to time-dependent PFOA serum levels for a surviving hypothetical population from ages 20 to 85. Both occupational and general population exposures were described as serum levels, and as air and drinking water concentrations. RESULTS: The estimated occupational inhalation concentrations conferring the benchmark one-per-thousand lifetime risk were 0.21 µg/m3 for chronic kidney disease, 1.0 µg/m3 for kidney cancer and (from the two studies) 0.67 and 1.97 µg/m3 for chronic liver disease. Specific excess lifetime risks estimated in the general population at current PFOA serum levels (~ 1 ng/mL) range 1.5-32 per 100 000 which corresponds to drinking water concentrations of less than 10 ppt. CONCLUSION: Over eight outcome risk estimates, the serum PFOA concentrations conferring 1/1000 occupational lifetime risk ranged 44 to 416 ng/mL corresponding to air concentrations ranging 0.21 to 1.99 µg/m3. The analyses provide a preliminary PFOA quantitative risk assessment for liver and kidney disease mortality which, together with reported assessments for several other end-points, would inform policy on PFAS.

Risk assessment for conventional diesel exhaust (before 1990) and lung cancer in a cohort of miners.

Diesel exhaust in the latter half of the 20th century has been found to be a lung carcinogen. Conventional diesel emissions continue in the transportation, mining, construction, and farming industries. From the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study, a public-use dataset was used to calculate the excess lifetime risk of lung cancer associated with diesel exposure (1947-1997). Excess rates of lung cancer mortality associated with respirable elemental carbon (REC) and possible other mining exposures (e.g., oil mists, explosives emissions) were investigated using Poisson regression methods. Lung cancer mortality declined with increasing employment duration while increasing with cumulative REC and non-diesel exposures, suggesting a strong worker survivor effect. Attenuation of the REC effect was observed with increasing cumulative exposure. After adjustment for employment duration, the excess rate ratio for lung cancer mortality was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.35-0.99) for a 10-year lagged exposure to 200 µg/m3 REC, a typical below-ground exposure in the study mines. At exposures of 200, 10, and 1 µg/m3 REC, the estimated excess lifetime risks, respectively, were 119, 43, and 8.7 per thousand. Analysis of an inception cohort hired after dieselization commenced produced smaller and less certain estimates of lifetime risk. From exposures to conventional diesel engine exhaust common in occupational groups in the past, the excess lifetime risk of lung cancer was more than 5%. Ambient REC exposures in the general population were estimated to confer lifetime risks of 0.14 to 14 per thousand, depending on assumptions made.

Continuous NHANES survey data for environmental ambient and occupational hazard identification-feasibility and preliminary findings for osteoporosis and kidney disease.

The Continuous NHANES Survey provides detailed health and environmental chemical burden information on the U.S. population. As of 2012, there were data for 72,000 participants. Based on single biomarker determinations, cumulative burdens were estimated. Because age distributions would differ comparing ambient environmental and occupational exposures, a procedure to distinguish ambient from likely occupational exposures was applied. Associations are reported for osteoporosis and kidney disease-related outcomes with cadmium, lead, and other metals. Cumulative cadmium burden (from blood cadmium, ambient and occupational) was a strong predictor of bone fracture risk and ambient tungsten also had a positive association. Cumulative lead (ambient and occupational) had a negative ("protective") association with fractures as did mercury (occupational). Bone mineral density was statistically significant and similarly predicted by metal exposures. Kidney disease was significantly associated with cumulative lead burdens from both the estimated ambient and occupational sources and with ambient blood cadmium but was most strongly associated with cumulative occupational uranium burden. Systolic blood pressure statistically significantly increased with cumulative ambient and occupational lead (blood) burden and with ambient cadmium and cobalt. Diastolic blood pressure was significantly associated with several cadmium and cobalt metrics along with ambient and occupational cumulative burdens for lead. For environmental substances with burden half-lives measured in years, NHANES offers opportunities for hypothesis generation and confirmation.

Risk assessment for o-toluidine and bladder cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: Elevated bladder cancer incidence has been reported in a cohort of 1875 workers manufacturing chemicals used in the rubber industry and employed any time during 1946-2006. o-Toluidine (OT), an aromatic amine, was the prime suspect agent. Using the available environmental data and process characterization, previous investigators assigned ranks to volatile chemical air concentrations across time in departments and jobs, reflecting probabilities of exposure and use of personal protective equipment for airborne and dermal exposures. Aniline, another aromatic amine, was present at comparable concentrations and is known to be an animal carcinogen but produced lower levels in post-shift urine and of hemoglobin adducts than OT in a group of workers. METHODS: A quantitative risk assessment was performed based on this same population. In this study, cumulative OT exposures were estimated (a) based on previously assigned ranks of exposure intensity and reported actual exposures in jobs with the highest assigned rank, and (b) directly from the historical environmental sampling for OT. Models of bladder cancer incidence were evaluated taking into account possible healthy worker survivor effects. RESULTS: Under various assumptions regarding workforce turnover, the excess lifetime risk of bladder cancer from OT exposure at 1 ppb was estimated to be in the range 1-7 per thousand. CONCLUSIONS: The current ACGIH TLV and OSHA standards for OT are 2 and 5 ppm, respectively, 1000-fold higher than the exposure estimated here for 1-7 per thousand excess lifetime risk.

Risk Assessment for Toluene Diisocyanate and Respiratory Disease Human Studies.

BACKGROUND: Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) is a highly reactive chemical that causes sensitization and has also been associated with increased lung cancer. A risk assessment was conducted based on occupational epidemiologic estimates for several health outcomes. METHODS: Exposure and outcome details were extracted from published studies and a NIOSH Health Hazard Evaluation for new onset asthma, pulmonary function measurements, symptom prevalence, and mortality from lung cancer and respiratory disease. Summary exposure-response estimates were calculated taking into account relative precision and possible survivor selection effects. Attributable incidence of sensitization was estimated as were annual proportional losses of pulmonary function. Excess lifetime risks and benchmark doses were calculated. RESULTS: Respiratory outcomes exhibited strong survivor bias. Asthma/sensitization exposure response decreased with increasing facility-average TDI air concentration as did TDI-associated pulmonary impairment. In a mortality cohort where mean employment duration was less than 1 year, survivor bias pre-empted estimation of lung cancer and respiratory disease exposure response. CONCLUSION: Controlling for survivor bias and assuming a linear dose-response with facility-average TDI concentrations, excess lifetime risks exceeding one per thousand occurred at about 2 ppt TDI for sensitization and respiratory impairment. Under alternate assumptions regarding stationary and cumulative effects, one per thousand excess risks were estimated at TDI concentrations of 10 - 30 ppt. The unexplained reported excess mortality from lung cancer and other lung diseases, if attributable to TDI or associated emissions, could represent a lifetime risk comparable to that of sensitization.

Preliminary Risk assessment for Acrylamide and Peripheral Neuropathy.

Acrylamide (ACM) is a high-volume industrial chemical with diverse uses in manufacturing, construction and laboratory research. ACM is a well-established neurotoxic agent causing peripheral neuropathy with impairment in the arms and legs of exposed workers, most thoroughly studied in Swedish tunnel workers exposed to ACM grouting. A quantitative risk assessment was performed to assess ACM risk to workers. Using data from a published paper investigating peripheral neuropathies in Chinese chemical workers, estimates of exposure response for vibration perception threshold and nerve conduction velocities were calculated, based on hemoglobin adducts and air concentrations as exposure metrics. The benchmark dose procedure was applied in order to calculate excess risks of impairment, defined as adverse performance exceeding the 95th percentile in unexposed populations, at various concentrations of airborne ACM exposure. Under the assumptions in this risk assessment, after three years of inhalation exposure at 0.3 mg/m3, the excess attributable impairment manifest in vibration perception and nerve conduction velocity is estimated to occur in 1-2% of workers. For 10 years at 0.3 mg/m3 ACM inhalation (equivalent to 3 years at 1.0 mg/m3) the excess prevalence of impairment would be 2-14% of workers, assuming the effect continues to accrue linearly in time. Using published data, the risks of impairment from peripheral neuropathy attributable to exclusively airborne ACM exposure can be predicted for exposure periods less than 10 years. The risks associated with dermal and airborne ACM exposures can be estimated by characterizing working process environments using ACM Hb-adduct levels and possibly monitored with urinary biomarkers.

A Simple Toxicokinetic Model Exhibiting Complex Dynamics and Nonlinear Exposure Response.

Uncertainty in model predictions of exposure response at low exposures is a problem for risk assessment. A particular interest is the internal concentration of an agent in biological systems as a function of external exposure concentrations. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models permit estimation of internal exposure concentrations in target tissues but most assume that model parameters are either fixed or instantaneously dose-dependent. Taking into account response times for biological regulatory mechanisms introduces new dynamic behaviors that have implications for low-dose exposure response in chronic exposure. A simple one-compartment simulation model is described in which internal concentrations summed over time exhibit significant nonlinearity and nonmonotonicity in relation to external concentrations due to delayed up- or downregulation of a metabolic pathway. These behaviors could be the mechanistic basis for homeostasis and for some apparent hormetic effects.

Associations between exposure to ethylene oxide, job termination, and cause-specific mortality risk.

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses of mortality were conducted in a large cohort of ethylene oxide (EtO) exposed workers employed at 13 sterilization facilities throughout the U.S. and followed from the start of operation through 1998. Statistically significant elevated mortality was reported from hematopoietic cancer in men and breast cancer in women compared to the general population. Possible healthy worker survivor bias was not addressed. METHODS: To examine survivor bias in this cohort, employment termination was analyzed with statistical models stratified on sex and race that included age, employment duration, and cumulative EtO exposure. To reduce survivor bias employment duration was included in Poisson regression model specifications for estimating standardized mortality ratios for several cancer outcomes. RESULTS: Strong statistically significant effects of unlagged cumulative EtO exposure were observed on rate of employment termination, indicating potential healthy worker survivor effect bias. Adjustment for employment duration in analyses of mortality resulted in statistically significant and stronger associations between cumulative EtO exposure and lung cancer, female breast cancer and hematopoietic cancer. There was a striking reduction in nonmalignant respiratory disease mortality risk with increasing employment duration with a further (nonsignificant) reduction with cumulative EtO, suggesting that EtO itself is driving termination of workers with respiratory morbidity even though the average EtO exposures in this population were generally far below odor and acute irritancy thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Important survivor bias was present in this EtO cohort and may be present in many occupational settings involving irritant exposures.

Risk Assessment for Metalworking Fluids and Respiratory Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Metalworking fluids (MWFs) are mixtures with inhalation exposures as mists, dusts, and vapors, and dermal exposure in the dispersed and bulk liquid phase. A quantitative risk assessment was performed for exposure to MWF and respiratory disease. METHODS: Risks associated with MWF were derived from published studies and NIOSH Health Hazard Evaluations, and lifetime risks were calculated. The outcomes analyzed included adult onset asthma, hypersensitivity pneumonitis, pulmonary function impairment, and reported symptoms. Incidence rates were compiled or estimated, and annual proportional loss of respiratory capacity was derived from cross-sectional assessments. RESULTS: A strong healthy worker survivor effect was present. New-onset asthma and hypersensitivity pneumonitis, at 0.1 mg/m3 MWF under continuous outbreak conditions, had a lifetime risk of 45%; if the associated microbiological conditions occur with only 5% prevalence, then the lifetime risk would be about 3%. At 0.1 mg/m3, the estimate of excess lifetime risk of attributable pulmonary impairment was 0.25%, which may have been underestimated by a factor of 5 or more by a strong healthy worker survivor effect. The symptom prevalence associated with respiratory impairment at 0.1 mg/m3 MWF was estimated to be 5% (published studies) and 21% (Health Hazard Evaluations). CONCLUSION: Significant risks of impairment and chronic disease occurred at 0.1 mg/m3 for MWFs in use mostly before 2000. Evolving MWFs contain new ingredients with uncharacterized long-term hazards.

Pulmonary Impairment and Risk Assessment in a Diacetyl-Exposed Population: Microwave Popcorn Workers.

OBJECTIVES: The butter flavoring additive, diacetyl (DA), can cause bronchiolitis obliterans (BO) by inhalation. A risk assessment was performed using data from a microwave popcorn manufacturing plant. METHODS: Current employees' medical history and pulmonary function tests together with air sampling over a 2.7-year period were used to analyze forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC). The exposure responses for declining pulmonary function and for possible early onset of BO were estimated using multiple regression methods. Several exposure metrics were investigated; benchmark dose and excess lifetime risk of impairment were calculated. RESULTS: Forty-six percent of the population had less than 6 months exposure to DA. Percent-of-predicted FEV1 declined with cumulative exposure (0.40 per ppm-yr, P < 10) as did percent FEV1/FVC (0.13 per ppm-yr, P = 0.0004). Lifetime respiratory impairment prevalence of one per thousand resulted from 0.005 ppm DA and one per thousand lifetime incidence of impairment was predicted for 0.002 ppm DA. CONCLUSION: DA exposures, often exceeding 1 ppm in the past, place workers at high risk of pulmonary impairment.

Risk assessment for metalworking fluids and cancer outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Metalworking fluids (MWF) are complex mixtures with dermal and inhalation exposure. Published reports reveal excess cancer risk. METHODS: Using published findings exposure response was derived for each attributable cancer site. Aggregate excess lifetime risk was estimated by applying a lifetable calculation. RESULTS: Cancer sites contributing the most attributable cases were larynx, esophagus, brain, female breast, and uterine cervix. With constant workplace MWF exposure of 0.1 mg/m3 over a 45 years working life, the risk of attributable cancer was 3.7% or, excluding the less certain female cancers, 3.1%. CONCLUSION: Substantial cancer risks occurred at 0.1 mg/m3 MWF, one fourth of the current NIOSH recommended exposure limit for MWF total particulate. Because ingredients in current MWF remain from earlier formulations, it is likely that some MWF carcinogenicity persists today. Although important changes have occurred, newer agents are being continually introduced with little or no knowledge of chronic health risks.

Manganese and neurobehavioral impairment. A preliminary risk assessment.

Similar patterns of cognitive and motor deficits have been widely reported from manganese exposures in welding, metallurgical and chemical industry workers. A risk assessment was performed based on studies reported in the literature, extending some earlier work, and deriving new estimates of exposure response and excess risk. Many investigations of manganese neurological effects in humans have insufficient information to derive an exposure response; however, findings from a chemical manufacturer, two smelter and two welder populations permitted application of the benchmark dose procedure for continuous end-points. Small particles and aggregates of condensation fume (condensing vaporized metal, <0.1µm in diameter) appear to have a higher potency per unit mass than larger particles from dusts (>1.0µm). Consideration was given to long-term effects of continuous low exposures that instead of producing increasing toxicity attain a steady-state condition. Impairment was defined as excursions beyond the 5th percentile in a normal population and the concentrations of manganese predicted to result in 1% excess prevalence of impairment over different time periods were calculated. Over five years, exposures resulting in 1% excess prevalence of impairment (for purposes of discussion) were in the vicinity of 10µg/m3 for manganese fume and 25µg/m3 for larger particle dusts. These levels are below current recommendations for occupational limits on manganese exposure in the United States.

Bayesian Quantile Impairment Threshold Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Endpoints.

Quantitative risk assessment often begins with an estimate of the exposure or dose associated with a particular risk level from which exposure levels posing low risk to populations can be extrapolated. For continuous exposures, this value, the benchmark dose, is often defined by a specified increase (or decrease) from the median or mean response at no exposure. This method of calculating the benchmark dose does not take into account the response distribution and, consequently, cannot be interpreted based upon probability statements of the target population. We investigate quantile regression as an alternative to the use of the median or mean regression. By defining the dose-response quantile relationship and an impairment threshold, we specify a benchmark dose as the dose associated with a specified probability that the population will have a response equal to or more extreme than the specified impairment threshold. In addition, in an effort to minimize model uncertainty, we use Bayesian monotonic semiparametric regression to define the exposure-response quantile relationship, which gives the model flexibility to estimate the quantal dose-response function. We describe this methodology and apply it to both epidemiology and toxicology data.

Extended follow-up of lung cancer and non-malignant respiratory disease mortality among California diatomaceous earth workers.

OBJECTIVES: Millions of workers worldwide are employed in occupations involving potentiality hazardous exposure to crystalline silica. The diatomaceous earth industry can have particularly high exposures, but there is a lower likelihood of simultaneously occurring confounding exposures. We extended follow-up for diatomaceous earth industry workers previously studied for mortality. METHODS: The cohort included 2342 white men who were employed for at least 1 year at a diatomaceous earth plant in Lompoc, California beginning in 1942. Workers' vital status was updated using the National Death Index through 2011, an extension of 19 years from earlier studies. Detailed work history and quantitative air monitoring measurements estimated exposure intensity. Cox proportional hazards modelling estimated HRs and 95% CIs. SMRs were calculated. RESULTS: Elevated mortality was observed by quartile of cumulative crystalline silica exposure for lung cancer (HR=2.03, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.85, highest quartile, unlagged) and non-malignant respiratory disease (NMRD) (HR=3.59, 95% CI 1.94 to 6.67, highest quartile, unlagged), although trends were not statistically significant. Associations were attenuated when adjusted for smoking and asbestos exposure. Mortality from NMRD was significantly increased over the entire follow-up compared to the general population (SMR=1.37, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.60). An increase for lung cancer was confined to the earlier follow-up (SMR=1.29, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.61). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of lung cancer and NMRD mortality remained elevated, although generally non-significant, and exposure-response trends with cumulative crystalline silica persisted on extended follow-up of this cohort. The findings support a generally consistently observed aetiological relation between crystalline silica and lung cancer.

Respiratory manganese particle size, time-course and neurobehavioral outcomes in workers at a manganese alloy production plant.

The progression of manganism with chronic exposure to airborne manganese (Mn) is not well understood. Here, we further investigate the findings on exposure and neurobehavioral outcomes of workers from a silico- and ferromanganese production plant and non-exposed workers from the same community in 1990 and 2004, using a variety of exposure metrics that distinguish particle size and origin within the range of respirable airborne exposures. Mn exposure matrices for large respirable particulate (Mn-LRP, dust) and small respirable particulate (Mn-SRP, fume), based on process origins, were used together with detailed work histories since 1973 (plant opening), to construct exposure metrics including burdens and cumulative burdens with various clearance half-lives. For three out of eight 1990 neurobehavioral tests analyzed with linear regression models, duration of Mn exposure was the best predictor: Luria-Nebraska Neuropsychological Battery - Motor Scale, Trail-Making B and Finger Tapping. The Luria-Nebraska Motor Scale had the strongest association (t ∼ 5.0, p < 10(-6)). For outcomes on three other tests, the duration and Mn-SRP metrics were comparable: Trail Making Test A, Cancellation H and Stroop Color-Word Test (color/word subtest). Delayed Word Recall was best predicted by Mn-SRP (based on square root or truncated air-concentrations). The Word score on the Stroop Color-Word Test was the only outcome for which Mn-LRP was the leading predictor (t = -2.92, p = 0.003), while performance on the WAIS-R Digit Span Test was not significantly predicted by any metric. For outcomes evaluated in both 1990 and 2004, a mixed-effect linear regression model was used to examine estimates of within-individual trends. Duration and Mn-SRP were associated with performance on the Luria-Nebraska Motor Scale, as well as with other outcomes that appeared to have both reversible and progressive features, including Trail Making A and B, Cancellation H and Delayed Word Recall. With the mixed-effect model, Digit Span exhibited a significant irreversible association with exposure duration (t = -2.34, p = 0.021) and Mn-SRP (square root; t = -2.38, p = 0.019) metrics. The strong prediction using duration of exposure is consistent with effective homeostatic regulation of tissue-level Mn in the observed exposure range of respirable Mn (< 0.2mg/m(3)).

Airborne manganese as dust vs. fume determining blood levels in workers at a manganese alloy production plant.

The appropriate exposure metrics for characterizing manganese (Mn) exposure associated with neurobehavioral effects have not been established. Blood levels of Mn (B-Mn) provide a potentially important intermediate marker of Mn airborne exposures. Using data from a study of a population of silicon- and ferro-manganese alloy production workers employed between 1973 and 1991, B-Mn levels were modeled in relation to prior Mn exposure using detailed work histories and estimated respirable Mn concentrations from air-sampling records. Despite wide variation in exposure levels estimated for individual jobs, duration of employment (exposure) was itself a strong predictor of B-Mn levels and strongest when an 80-day half-life was applied to contributions over time (t=6.95, 7.44, respectively; p<10(-5)). Partitioning exposure concentrations based on process origin into two categories: (1) "large" respirable particulate (Mn-LRP) derived mainly from mechanically generated dust, and (2) "small" respirable particulate (Mn-SRP) primarily electric furnace condensation fume, revealed that B-Mn levels largely track the small, fume exposures. With a half-life of 65 days applied in a model with cumulative exposure terms for both Mn-LRP (t=-0.16, p=0.87) and Mn-SRP (t=6.45, p<10(-5)), the contribution of the large-size fraction contribution was negligible. Constructing metrics based on the square root of SRP exposure concentrations produced a better model fit (t=7.87 vs. 7.44, R(2)=0.2333 vs. 0.2157). In a model containing both duration (t=0.79, p=0.43) and (square root) fume (t=2.47, p=0.01) metrics, the duration term was a weak contributor. Furnace-derived, small respirable Mn particulate appears to be the primary contributor to B-Mn levels, with a dose-rate dependence in a population chronically exposed to Mn, with air-concentrations declining in recent years. These observations may reflect the presence of homeostatic control of Mn levels in the blood and other body tissues and be useful in assessing Mn exposures for evaluating neurotoxic effects.

Neurobehavioral deficits and parkinsonism in occupations with manganese exposure: a review of methodological issues in the epidemiological literature.

Exposure to manganese (Mn) is associated with neurobehavioral effects. There is disagreement on whether commonly occurring exposures in welding, ferroalloy, and other industrial processes produce neurologically significant neurobehavioral changes representing parkinsonism. A review of methodological issues in the human epidemiological literature on Mn identified: (1) studies focused on idiopathic Parkinson disease without considering manganism, a parkinsonian syndrome; (2) studies with healthy worker effect bias; (3) studies with problematic statistical modeling; and (4) studies arising from case series derived from litigation. Investigations with adequate study design and exposure assessment revealed consistent neurobehavioral effects and attributable subclinical and clinical signs and symptoms of impairment. Twenty-eight studies show an exposure-response relationship between Mn and neurobehavioral effects, including 11 with continuous exposure metrics and six with three or four levels of contrasted exposure. The effects of sustained low-concentration exposures to Mn are consistent with the manifestations of early manganism, i.e., consistent with parkinsonism. This is compelling evidence that Mn is a neurotoxic chemical and there is good evidence that Mn exposures far below the current US standard of 5.0 mg/m(3) are causing impairment.