Observational-based assessment of contributions to maximum ozone concentrations in the western United States.

Archived Ozone Design Values (ODVs) provide smoothed temporal records of maximum ozone concentrations impacting monitoring sites throughout the US. Utilizing time series of ODVs recorded at sites along the US West Coast, we separately estimate ODV contributions from US background ozone and from production driven by US anthropogenic precursor emissions. Sondes launched from Trinidad Head in northern California measure the vertical distribution of baseline ozone transported ashore from the Pacific; this profile is reflected in the increase of the US background ODV contribution with monitoring site elevation in both rural and urban areas. The ODVs that would result from US background ozone alone are small at coastal, sea level locations (average ~45 ppb), but increase with altitude; above 1 km US background ODVs can exceed 60 ppb. US background ozone contributions now constitute the majority of the maximum ODVs throughout the US west coast region, including the Los Angeles urban area, which records the country's highest ODVs. US anthropogenic emissions presently cause enhancements of 35 to 55 ppb to the maximum ODVs in the Los Angeles area; thus, local emission controls can further reduce ozone even though the background contribution is larger. In other US west coast urban areas ODV enhancements from US anthropogenic emissions are much smaller than the US background ODV contribution. The past decrease in US anthropogenic ODV enhancements from emission controls is larger than generally realized - a factor of more than 6 from 1980 to 2020, while US background ODV contributions varied to only a small extent over those four decades. Wildfire impacts on ODVs are significant in urban areas of the Pacific Northwest, but not over the vast northern US rural region. There is an indication that agricultural emissions of nitrogen oxides in California's Salinas Valley increase downwind maximum ODVs by 5-10 ppb.Implications: In 2020 the ozone design values (ODVs) resulting from transported background ozone alone are now larger than the ODV enhancements from US anthropogenic precursor emissions, even in the Los Angeles urban area, where the nation's highest ODVs are recorded. The US anthropogenic ODV enhancements have been reduced by more than a factor of 6 from 1980 to 2020. The maximum US background ODV contributions have varied somewhat, but in each of the US west coast urban areas it was 60 ppb or larger in 2000. These contributions are so large that reducing maximum urban ODVs to the 70 ppb required by the 2015 ozone NAAQS is very difficult. There remains relatively little room for further reducing ODVs through domestic emission controls alone. From this perspective, degraded US ozone air quality in the western US is primarily due to the US background ozone contribution, with the US anthropogenic enhancement making a significant, but smaller contribution. Notably, the US background ODV has slowly decreased (~1 ppb decade-1; Parrish, Derwent, and Faloona 2021) since the mid-2000s; cooperative, international emission control efforts aimed at continuing or even accelerating this background ozone decrease may be an effective approach to further ODV reductions, since the US background ODV is largely due to a hemisphere-wide, transported reservoir of ozone with contributions from all northern midlatitude continents. Given the major contribution of background ozone to observed ODVs, future reviews of the ozone NAAQS will be better informed if observational-based estimates of background ODV contributions are considered, in addition to model-derived estimates upon which past reviews have solely relied.

Large contribution of biomass burning emissions to ozone throughout the global remote troposphere.

Ozone is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane but has a larger uncertainty in its radiative forcing, in part because of uncertainty in the source characteristics of ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic carbon that directly affect ozone formation chemistry. Tropospheric ozone also negatively affects human and ecosystem health. Biomass burning (BB) and urban emissions are significant but uncertain sources of ozone precursors. Here, we report global-scale, in situ airborne measurements of ozone and precursor source tracers from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography mission. Measurements from the remote troposphere showed that tropospheric ozone is regularly enhanced above background in polluted air masses in all regions of the globe. Ozone enhancements in air with high BB and urban emission tracers (2.1 to 23.8 ppbv [parts per billion by volume]) were generally similar to those in BB-influenced air (2.2 to 21.0 ppbv) but larger than those in urban-influenced air (-7.7 to 6.9 ppbv). Ozone attributed to BB was 2 to 10 times higher than that from urban sources in the Southern Hemisphere and the tropical Atlantic and roughly equal to that from urban sources in the Northern Hemisphere and the tropical Pacific. Three independent global chemical transport models systematically underpredict the observed influence of BB on tropospheric ozone. Potential reasons include uncertainties in modeled BB injection heights and emission inventories, export efficiency of BB emissions to the free troposphere, and chemical mechanisms of ozone production in smoke. Accurately accounting for intermittent but large and widespread BB emissions is required to understand the global tropospheric ozone burden.

Quantifying the role of PM2.5 dropping in variations of ground-level ozone: Inter-comparison between Beijing and Los Angeles.

In recent decade the ambient fine particle (PM2.5) levels have shown a trend of distinct dropping in China, while ground-level ozone concentrations have been increasing in Beijing and many other Chinese mega-cities. The variation pattern in Los Angeles was markedly different, with PM2.5 and ozone decreasing together over past decades. In this study, we utilize observation-based methods to establish the parametric relationship between PM2.5 concentration and key aerosol physical properties (including aerosol optical depth and aerosol surface concentration), and an observation-based 1-D photochemical model to quantify the response of PM2.5 decline in enhancing ground-level ozone pollution over a large PM2.5 concentration range (10-120 µg m-3). We find that the significance of ozone enhancement due to PM2.5 dropping depends on both the PM2.5 levels and optical properties of particles. Ozone formation increased by 37% in 2006-2016 due to PM2.5 dropping in Beijing, while it becomes less important (7%) as PM2.5 reaches below 40 µg/m3, similar to Los Angeles since 1980s. Therefore, the two cities show the convergence of air pollutant characteristics. Hence a control strategy prioritizing reactive volatile organic compound abatement is projected to yield simultaneous ozone and PM2.5 reductions in Beijing, as experienced in Los Angeles.

Long-term baseline ozone changes in the Western US: A synthesis of analyses.

Quantification of the magnitude and long-term changes in ozone concentrations transported into the U.S. is important for effective air quality policy development. We synthesize multiple published trend analyses of western U.S. baseline ozone, and show that all results are consistent with an overall, non-linear change - a rapid increase (~5 ppb/decade) during the 1980s that slowed in the 1990s, maximized in the mid-2000s, and was followed by a slow decrease (~1 ppb/decade) thereafter. This non-linear change accounts for ~2/3 of the variance in 28 published linear trend analyses; we attribute the other 1/3 of the variance to unquantified autocorrelation in the analyzed data sets that result primarily from meteorologically driven interannual ozone variability. Recent systematic changes in baseline ozone on the U.S. West Coast have been relatively small - the standard deviation of the 2-year means over the 1990-2017 period is 1.5 ppb. International efforts to reduce anthropogenic precursor emissions from all northern mid-latitude sources could possibly reduce baseline ozone concentrations, thereby improving U.S. ozone air quality.Implications: Ozone is an air pollutant with significant human and ecological health impacts. Air masses transported into the western U.S. from over the Pacific Ocean carry ozone concentrations that are, on average, a large fraction of the U.S. health standard. The US EPA policy assessment conducted for the recent review of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) found that 2016 regional average MDA8 ozone concentrations in the western US maximized in summer at ~52 ppb and that ~40 ppb of that maximum was contributed by ozone of natural and transported anthropogenic contributions. Thus, quantifying these trans-boundary background ozone concentrations has been identified as an important issue for a complete understanding of US air quality. Published analyses of temporal trends of these transported ozone concentrations vary widely, from early reports of increases to more recent reports of decreases. We show that the long-term ozone changes are nonlinear, with substantial concentration increases (as large as ~5 ppb/decade) before the mid-2000s when a maximum is reached, followed by a small decrease of ~1 ppb/decade thereafter. Superimposed on the overall changes is significant interannual variability that makes accurate determination of systematic trends over decade-scale time periods uncertain. The end of the previously increasing trends, and the recent decrease in transported ozone concentrations, is a good news for U.S. air quality, as it eases the difficulty of achieving the ozone air quality standard.

High winter ozone pollution from carbonyl photolysis in an oil and gas basin.

The United States is now experiencing the most rapid expansion in oil and gas production in four decades, owing in large part to implementation of new extraction technologies such as horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing. The environmental impacts of this development, from its effect on water quality to the influence of increased methane leakage on climate, have been a matter of intense debate. Air quality impacts are associated with emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), whose photochemistry leads to production of ozone, a secondary pollutant with negative health effects. Recent observations in oil- and gas-producing basins in the western United States have identified ozone mixing ratios well in excess of present air quality standards, but only during winter. Understanding winter ozone production in these regions is scientifically challenging. It occurs during cold periods of snow cover when meteorological inversions concentrate air pollutants from oil and gas activities, but when solar irradiance and absolute humidity, which are both required to initiate conventional photochemistry essential for ozone production, are at a minimum. Here, using data from a remote location in the oil and gas basin of northeastern Utah and a box model, we provide a quantitative assessment of the photochemistry that leads to these extreme winter ozone pollution events, and identify key factors that control ozone production in this unique environment. We find that ozone production occurs at lower NOx and much larger VOC concentrations than does its summertime urban counterpart, leading to carbonyl (oxygenated VOCs with a C = O moiety) photolysis as a dominant oxidant source. Extreme VOC concentrations optimize the ozone production efficiency of NOx. There is considerable potential for global growth in oil and gas extraction from shale. This analysis could help inform strategies to monitor and mitigate air quality impacts and provide broader insight into the response of winter ozone to primary pollutants.

Magnitude, decadal changes, and impact of regional background ozone transported into the greater Houston, Texas, area.

Two independent analyses of the daily maximum 8 h average ozone concentrations measured during the high ozone season (May through October) at Continuous Ambient Monitoring Stations are used to quantify the regional background ozone transported into the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area. The dependence on wind direction is examined, and long-term trends are determined using measurements made between 1998 and 2012. Both analyses show that the regional background ozone has declined during periods of continental outflow: i.e., the conditions associated with most high ozone episodes in HGB. The changes in regional background ozone found for northeasterly and southeasterly flow are -0.50 ± 0.54 and -0.79 ± 0.65 (95% confidence limit) ppbv yr(-1), respectively, which correspond to decreases of ∼7-11 ppbv between 1998 and 2012. This finding is consistent with the summertime downward trend of -0.45 ppbv yr(-1) (range of sites: -0.87 to +0.07 ppbv yr(-1)) for ozone in the eastern U.S. between 1990 and 2010 reported by Cooper et al. and shows that changing background concentrations are at least partially responsible for the decreased surface ozone in the HGB area over the past decade. Baseline ozone concentrations in air flowing into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico have not changed significantly over this period.

Chemical data quantify Deepwater Horizon hydrocarbon flow rate and environmental distribution.

Detailed airborne, surface, and subsurface chemical measurements, primarily obtained in May and June 2010, are used to quantify initial hydrocarbon compositions along different transport pathways (i.e., in deep subsurface plumes, in the initial surface slick, and in the atmosphere) during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Atmospheric measurements are consistent with a limited area of surfacing oil, with implications for leaked hydrocarbon mass transport and oil drop size distributions. The chemical data further suggest relatively little variation in leaking hydrocarbon composition over time. Although readily soluble hydrocarbons made up ∼25% of the leaking mixture by mass, subsurface chemical data show these compounds made up ∼69% of the deep plume mass; only ∼31% of the deep plume mass was initially transported in the form of trapped oil droplets. Mass flows along individual transport pathways are also derived from atmospheric and subsurface chemical data. Subsurface hydrocarbon composition, dissolved oxygen, and dispersant data are used to assess release of hydrocarbons from the leaking well. We use the chemical measurements to estimate that (7.8 ± 1.9) × 10(6) kg of hydrocarbons leaked on June 10, 2010, directly accounting for roughly three-quarters of the total leaked mass on that day. The average environmental release rate of (10.1 ± 2.0) × 10(6) kg/d derived using atmospheric and subsurface chemical data agrees within uncertainties with the official average leak rate of (10.2 ± 1.0) × 10(6) kg/d derived using physical and optical methods.

Air quality implications of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

During the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, a wide range of gas and aerosol species were measured from an aircraft around, downwind, and away from the DWH site. Additional hydrocarbon measurements were made from ships in the vicinity. Aerosol particles of respirable sizes were on occasions a significant air quality issue for populated areas along the Gulf Coast. Yields of organic aerosol particles and emission factors for other atmospheric pollutants were derived for the sources from the spill, recovery, and cleanup efforts. Evaporation and subsequent secondary chemistry produced organic particulate matter with a mass yield of 8 ± 4% of the oil mixture reaching the water surface. Approximately 4% by mass of oil burned on the surface was emitted as soot particles. These yields can be used to estimate the effects on air quality for similar events as well as for this spill at other times without these data. Whereas emission of soot from burning surface oil was large during the episodic burns, the mass flux of secondary organic aerosol to the atmosphere was substantially larger overall. We use a regional air quality model to show that some observed enhancements in organic aerosol concentration along the Gulf Coast were likely due to the DWH spill. In the presence of evaporating hydrocarbons from the oil, NO(x) emissions from the recovery and cleanup operations produced ozone.

Establishing policy relevant background (PRB) ozone concentrations in the United States.

Policy Relevant Background (PRB) ozone concentrations are defined by the United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as those concentrations that would occur in the U.S. in the absence of anthropogenic emissions in continental North America (i.e., the U.S, Canada, and Mexico). Estimates of PRB ozone have had an important role historically in the EPA's human health and welfare risk analyses used in establishing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The margin of safety for the protection of public health in the ozone rulemaking process has been established from human health risks calculated based on PRB ozone estimates. Sensitivity analyses conducted by the EPA have illustrated that changing estimates of PRB ozone concentrations have a progressively greater impact on estimates of mortality risk as more stringent standards are considered. As defined by the EPA, PRB ozone is a model construct, but it is informed by measurements at relatively remote monitoring sites (RRMS). This review examines the current understanding of PRB ozone, based on both model predictions and measurements at RRMS, and provides recommendations for improving the definition and determination of PRB ozone.

Temporal changes in U.S. benzene emissions inferred from atmospheric measurements.

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments required the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) to enact stricter regulations aimed at reducing benzene emissions. In an effort to determine whether these new regulations have been successful in reducing atmospheric benzene concentrations, we have evaluated benzene-to-acetylene ratios from data sets spanning nearlythree decades, collected during several field studies and from the U.S. EPA's Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station (PAMS) network. The field-study data indicate a decrease in benzene relative to acetylene of approximately 40% from 1994 to 2002. This corresponds to a decrease in benzene alone of approximately 56% over the same period. In contrast, the PAMS data exhibit high interannual variability with no discernible trend. This discrepancy is attributed to measurement problems in the PAMS data sets.