Reversible Covalent Inhibition─Desired Covalent Adduct Formation by Mass Action.

Covalent inhibition has seen a resurgence in the last several years. Although long-plagued by concerns of off-target effects due to nonspecific reactions leading to covalent adducts, there has been success in developing covalent inhibitors, especially within the field of anticancer therapy. Covalent inhibitors can have an advantage over noncovalent inhibitors since the formation of a covalent adduct may serve as an additional mode of selectivity due to the intrinsic reactivity of the target protein that is absent in many other proteins. Unfortunately, many covalent inhibitors form irreversible adducts with off-target proteins, which can lead to considerable side-effects. By designing the inhibitor to form reversible covalent adducts, one can leverage competing on/off kinetics in complex formation by taking advantage of the law of mass action. Although covalent adducts do form with off-target proteins, the reversible nature of inhibition prevents accumulation of the off-target adduct, thus limiting side-effects. In this perspective, we outline important characteristics of reversible covalent inhibitors, including examples and a guide for inhibitor development.

Carbohydrate Ingestion Increases Interstitial Glucose and Mitigates Neuromuscular Fatigue during Single-Leg Knee Extensions.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the neuromuscular contributions to enhanced fatigue resistance with carbohydrate (CHO) ingestion and to identify whether fatigue is associated with changes in interstitial glucose levels assessed using a continuous glucose monitor (CGM). METHODS: Twelve healthy participants (six males, six females) performed isokinetic single-leg knee extensions (90°·s -1 ) at 20% of the maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) torque until MVC torque reached 60% of its initial value (i.e., task failure). Central and peripheral fatigue were evaluated every 15 min during the fatigue task using the interpolated twitch technique and electrically evoked torque. Using a single-blinded crossover design, participants ingested CHO (85 g sucrose per hour), or a placebo (PLA), at regular intervals during the fatigue task. Minute-by-minute interstitial glucose levels measured via CGM and whole blood glucose readings were obtained intermittently during the fatiguing task. RESULTS: CHO ingestion increased time to task failure over PLA (113 ± 69 vs 81 ± 49 min, mean ± SD; P < 0.001) and was associated with higher glycemia as measured by CGM (106 ± 18 vs 88 ± 10 mg·dL -1 , P < 0.001) and whole blood glucose sampling (104 ± 17 vs 89 ± 10 mg·dL -1 , P < 0.001). When assessing the values in the CHO condition at a similar time point to those at task failure in the PLA condition (i.e., ~81 min), MVC torque, percentage voluntary activation, and 10 Hz torque were all better preserved in the CHO versus PLA condition ( P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Exogenous CHO intake mitigates neuromuscular fatigue at both the central and peripheral levels by raising glucose concentrations rather than by preventing hypoglycemia.

Tartrate Dehydrogenase in Bacillus Species: Deciphering Unique Catalytic Diversity Through Kinetic, Structural and Molecular Docking Analysis.

Divergently evolved Tartrate dehydrogenase (TDH) exhibits multiple catalytic activities at a single active site; the enzyme from P. putida (pTDH) being structurally and biochemically well-characterized. Occurrence of TDH-associated ability to aerobically metabolize L-tartrate in Bacillus isolates and limited resemblance of ycsA-encoded protein sequences with pTDH rendered Bacillus TDH as an intriguing enzyme with possible catalytic diversity as well as evolutionary significance. The present study explores substrate interactions of TDHs from B. subtilis 168 (168bTDH) and B. licheniformis DSM-13 (429bTDH) through kinetic, structural and molecular docking-based analysis. Heterologously expressed bTDHs, purified from insoluble fractions of E. coli BL21(DE3) cells, could significantly catalyze L-tartrate and meso-tartrate as substrates in forward reaction. Unlike pTDH, bTDHs distinctly and more efficiently catalyzed the reverse reaction using dihydroxyfumarate substrate following sigmoidal kinetics; the ability being ~ 4 fold higher in 168bTDH. Their binding energies predicted from molecular docking, further substantiated the relative substrate specificities, while revealing major residues involved in protein-ligand interactions at active site. The kinetic analysis and homology modelling validated using Ramachandran Plot analysis predicted a dimeric nature for bTDH. Collectively, the results highlight unique catalytic potential of phylogenetically recent bTDHs, offering an important protein engineering target to mediate efficient enantioselective enzymatic biotransformations.

Knowledge on mucormycosis among nursing Indian students in the state of Gujarat.

The disorder known as angio-invasive mucormycosis is characterized by tissue necrosis and infarction. The Mucorales order of saprophytic fungi is responsible for its development. It is unclear how widespread mucormycosis is in India due to a lack of population-based investigations. Diabetes mellitus is the risk factor that occurs the most frequently, followed by solid organ transplant and hematological cancer. The present study has been carried out to assess the knowledge regarding mucormycosis among nursing students from Nootan College of Nursing, Visnagar, Gujarat. For this we have selected 100 students by using the probability sampling technique. Structured questions were used to assess the knowledge of nursing students regarding mucormycosis. The Score was categorized as poor, average and good. The results show that 45(45%) of the nursing students having poor knowledge, 35(35%) of them were having average knowledge, 20(20%) of them were having good knowledge. There is an association between gender, program and their level of knowledge. Most of the students having poor knowledge regarding mucormycosis and we need to create awareness regarding mucormycosis to Nursing students.

Research evaluating the effectiveness of dementia interventions in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic mapping of 340 randomised controlled trials.

OBJECTIVES: More people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries, but best-practice care recommendations are often based on studies from high-income countries. We aimed to map the available evidence on dementia interventions in LMICs. METHODS: We systematically mapped available evidence on interventions that aimed to improve the lives of people with dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and/or their carers in LMICs (registered on PROSPERO: CRD42018106206). We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published between 2008 and 2018. We searched 11 electronic academic and grey literature databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus, Global Health, World Health Organization Global Index Medicus, Virtual Health Library, Cochrane CENTRAL, Social Care Online, BASE, MODEM Toolkit) and examined the number and characteristics of RCTs according to intervention type. We used the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool to assess the risk of bias. RESULTS: We included 340 RCTs with 29,882 (median, 68) participants, published 2008-2018. Over two-thirds of the studies were conducted in China (n = 237, 69.7%). Ten LMICs accounted for 95.9% of included RCTs. The largest category of interventions was Traditional Chinese Medicine (n = 149, 43.8%), followed by Western medicine pharmaceuticals (n = 109, 32.1%), supplements (n = 43, 12.6%), and structured therapeutic psychosocial interventions (n = 37, 10.9%). Overall risk of bias was judged to be high for 201 RCTs (59.1%), moderate for 136 (40.0%), and low for 3 (0.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-generation on interventions for people with dementia or MCI and/or their carers in LMICs is concentrated in just a few countries, with no RCTs reported in the vast majority of LMICs. The body of evidence is skewed towards selected interventions and overall subject to high risk of bias. There is a need for a more coordinated approach to robust evidence-generation for LMICs.

Key hepatoprotective roles of mitochondria in liver regeneration.

Treatment of advanced liver disease using surgical modalities is possible due to the liver's innate ability to regenerate following resection. Several key cellular events in the regenerative process converge at the mitochondria, implicating their crucial roles in liver regeneration. Mitochondria enable the regenerating liver to meet massive metabolic demands by coordinating energy production to drive cellular proliferative processes and vital homeostatic functions. Mitochondria are also involved in terminating the regenerative process by mediating apoptosis. Studies have shown that attenuation of mitochondrial activity results in delayed liver regeneration, and liver failure following resection is associated with mitochondrial dysfunction. Emerging mitochondria therapy (i.e., mitotherapy) strategies involve isolating healthy donor mitochondria for transplantation into diseased organs to promote regeneration. This review highlights mitochondria's inherent role in liver regeneration.

Mitochondrial Role in Oncogenesis and Potential Chemotherapeutic Strategy of Mitochondrial Infusion in Breast Cancer.

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is one of the most aggressive cancers diagnosed amongst women with a high rate of treatment failure and a poor prognosis. Mitochondria have been found to be key players in oncogenesis and tumor progression by mechanisms such as altered metabolism, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and evasion of apoptosis. Therefore, mitochondrial infusion is an area of interest for cancer treatment. Studies in vitro and in vivo demonstrate mitochondrial-mediated reduction in glycolysis, enhancement of oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), reduction in proliferation, and an enhancement of apoptosis as effective anti-tumor therapies. This review focuses on mitochondrial dysregulation and infusion in malignancies, such as TNBC.

Poliovirus nonpermissive CD155 knockout cells derived from RD cell line for handling poliovirus potentially infectious materials in virology laboratories.

Destruction of all poliovirus containing materials, safe and secure handling of retained polioviruses for vaccine production, and research will be obligatory to eliminate facility-associated risks. Polioviruses and poliovirus potentially infectious materials (PIM) including fecal or respiratory samples requiring containment have been defined in World Health Organization-Global Action Plan (GAP III) documents. Non-polio laboratories culturing viruses from PIM are most affected as cell cultures of human and monkey origin are also poliovirus permissive. CRISPR gene-editing technology was used to knockout the poliovirus receptor (PVR/CD155) gene in the rhabdomyosarcoma (RD) cell line. PVR knockout RD cell susceptibility was tested using known non-polio enterovirus (NPEV) types. A selected clone (RD-SJ40) was field evaluated for virus isolation from 626 stool samples of acute flaccid paralysis cases. Poliovirus nonpermissive cells derived from the RD cell line did not show CD155-specific cell-surface immunofluorescence. CD155 gene sequencing confirmed nucleotide base pair deletions within exon2 and exon3. The CD155 knockout RD-SJ40 cells did not support the growth of poliovirus from positive stool samples. All NPEV types were isolated in RD and RD-SJ40 cells. CRISPR correctly edited the CD155 gene of RD cells to render them poliovirus nonpermissive while susceptibility to NPEV remained unchanged. RD-SJ40 cells are safe for NPEV isolation from poliovirus PIM without derogating GAP III containment requirements.

Common Antifungal Drugs in Pregnancy: Risks and Precautions.

Fungal skin infections are on the rise in India, and pregnant women are not immune to them. They are one of the commonest causes of secondary pruritus in pregnancy and can worsen the quality of life. Cutaneous dermatophytic infections have seen a recent emergence as a public health problem in India with increasing incidence as well as failure to appropriately respond to treatment. Vaginal candidiasis may cause obstetric and perinatal complications such as chorioamnionitis, premature rupture of membranes, preterm labor and neonatal candidiasis. Antifungal drugs are commonly prescribed in pregnancy. The common oral antifungals used are fluconazole, ketoconazole, itraconazole, terbinafine and griseofulvin; whereas the common topical antifungals are azoles, ciclopirox oleamine, terbinafine, amongst others. There have been reports of congenital abnormalities in the fetus and spontaneous abortions attributed to oral antifungals. Prescribing antifungal drugs in pregnancy needs careful consideration. In this article, we discuss the safety profile and recommendations regarding the use of these drugs during gestation. We have performed a literature search of recent large-scale cohort, case-control, and meta-analysis studies and presented them in this review. Antifungals such as echinocandins, amphotericin B, flucytosine, etc. which are indicated for systemic mycoses are beyond the scope of this article. Finally, we have given authors' perspective regarding the justifiable use of these antifungals in pregnant women.

In vivo measurement of the attenuation coefficient of the sclera and ciliary muscle.

We acquired 1325 nm OCT images of the sclera and ciliary muscle of human subjects. The attenuation coefficients of the sclera and ciliary muscle were determined from a curve fit of the average intensity profile of about 100 A-lines in a region of interest after correction for the effect of beam geometry, using a single scattering model. The average scleral attenuation coefficient was 4.13 ± 1.42 mm-1 with an age-related decrease that was near the threshold for statistical significance (p = 0.053). The average ciliary muscle attenuation coefficient was 1.72 ± 0.88 mm-1, but this value may be an underestimation due to contributions from multiple scattering. Overall, the results suggest that inter-individual variations in scleral attenuation contribute to variability in the quality of transscleral OCT images of the ciliary muscle and the outcome of transscleral laser therapies.

An Epidemiological Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Sequences from Different Regions of India.

The number of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases is increasing in India. This study looks upon the geographic distribution of the virus clades and variants circulating in different parts of India between January and August 2020. The NPS/OPS from representative positive cases from different states and union territories in India were collected every month through the VRDLs in the country and analyzed using next-generation sequencing. Epidemiological analysis of the 689 SARS-CoV-2 clinical samples revealed GH and GR to be the predominant clades circulating in different states in India. The northern part of India largely reported the 'GH' clade, whereas the southern part reported the 'GR', with a few exceptions. These sequences also revealed the presence of single independent mutations-E484Q and N440K-from Maharashtra (first observed in March 2020) and Southern Indian States (first observed in May 2020), respectively. Furthermore, this study indicates that the SARS-CoV-2 variant (VOC, VUI, variant of high consequence and double mutant) was not observed during the early phase of virus transmission (January-August). This increased number of variations observed within a short timeframe across the globe suggests virus evolution, which can be a step towards enhanced host adaptation.

Induction of pre-chorismate, jasmonate and salicylate pathways by Burkholderia sp. RR18 in peanut seedlings.

AIMS: To characterize the mechanisms by which bacteria in the peanut rhizosphere promote plant growth and suppress Aspergillus niger, the fungus that causes collar rot of peanut. METHODS AND RESULTS: In all, 131 isolates cultured from the peanut rhizosphere were assayed for growth promotion in a seedling germination assay. The most effective isolate, RR18, was identified as Burkholderia sp. by 16S sequencing analysis. RR18 reduced collar rot disease incidence and increased the germination rate and biomass of peanut seeds, and had broad-spectrum antifungal activity. Quantitative analyses showed that RR18 induced long-lasting accumulation of jasmonic acid, salicylic acid and phenols, and triggered the activity of six defence enzymes related to these changes. Comparative proteomic analysis of treated and untreated seedlings revealed a clear induction of four abundant proteins, including a member of the pre-chorismate pathway, a regulator of clathrin-coated vesicles, a transcription factor and a hypothetical protein. CONCLUSION: Burkholderia sp. RR18 promotes peanut growth and disease resistance, and stably induces two distinct defence pathways associated with systemic resistance. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This study demonstrates that a strain of the Burkholderia cepacia complex can elicit both salicylic- and jasmonic-acid-mediated defences, in addition to having numerous other beneficial properties.

Laboratory preparedness for SARS-CoV-2 testing in India: Harnessing a network of Virus Research & Diagnostic Laboratories.

Background & objectives: An outbreak of respiratory illness of unknown aetiology was reported from Hubei province of Wuhan, People's Republic of China, in December 2019. The outbreak was attributed to a novel coronavirus (CoV), named as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV-2 and the disease as COVID-19. Within one month, cases were reported from 25 countries. In view of the novel viral strain with reported high morbidity, establishing early countrywide diagnosis to detect imported cases became critical. Here we describe the role of a countrywide network of VRDLs in early diagnosis of COVID-19. Methods: The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, established screening as well as confirmatory assays for SARS-CoV-2. A total of 13 VRDLs were provided with the E gene screening real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. VRDLs were selected on the basis of their presence near an international airport/seaport and their past performance. The case definition for testing included all individuals with travel history to Wuhan and symptomatic individuals with travel history to other parts of China. This was later expanded to include symptomatic individuals returning from Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand and South Korea. Results: Within a week of standardization of the test at NIV, all VRDLs could initiate testing for SARS-CoV-2. Till February 29, 2020, a total of 2,913 samples were tested. This included both 654 individuals quarantined in the two camps and others fitting within the case definition. The quarantined individuals were tested twice - at days 0 and 14. All tested negative on both occasions. Only three individuals belonging to different districts in Kerala were found to be positive. Interpretation & conclusions: Sudden emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and its potential to cause a pandemic posed an unsurmountable challenge to the public health system of India. However, concerted efforts of various arms of the Government of India resulted in a well-coordinated action at each level. India has successfully demonstrated its ability to establish quick diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 at NIV, Pune, and the testing VRDLs.

Improvisation of a spectrophotometric method to quantify hydroxycitric acid.

Existing spectrophotometric method to quantify hydroxycitric acid (HCA), although is specific and sensitive; finds limited use owing to poor stability of HCA-metavanadate complex. Present study describes improvisation of this method with respect to source of HCA standard and assay parameters. Assay system consisting of HCA and metavanadate reagent was modified to include 1 M NaOH to neutralize excess acidity. Resulting complex showed λmax at 485 nm, obeying Beer-Lambert's law within concentration range of 33-677 µg/ml, with linear calibration curve showing a good coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.998). Moreover, HCA-metavanadate complex showed enhanced stability retaining up to 70% absorbance even after 60 min of its formation. Similar consistency in scaled-down assay system renders the method suitable for high-throughput screening of HCA-producing microbes. Of the tested metabolites and media components, only tartrate interfered with the spectrophotometric estimation of HCA; a correction factor to eliminate which was also established. Accordingly measured HCA level in the culture supernatant of a bacterial isolate IT6 was comparable to that determined using the standardized HPLC method. The proposed procedure therefore is a convenient, sensitive, accurate and high-throughput method suitable for primary screening of HCA producing microbes; the only ecofriendly alternative source of optically pure HCA.

Prescription and Usage Pattern of Topical Corticosteroids among Out-patient Attendees with Dermatophyte Infections and Its Analysis: A Cross-sectional, Survey-based Study.

BACKGROUND: There is scarce scientific data on topical corticosteroids (TCS) prescription by non-dermatologists including registered medical practitioners, ayurvedic, homeopathic practitioners, and over-the-counter (OTC) use of TCS-containing creams. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study is to analyze the prescription and usage pattern of topical steroids among out-patient attendees with dermatophyte infection. To study health-seeking behavior of patients with dermatophyte infections. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An open, cross-sectional, duration-based study of 3 months. Inclusion criteria: Patients with dermatophytosis having a history of topical steroid application; either prescribed or purchased OTC and used themselves. Exclusion criteria: Patients who were not willing to give informed consent. Patient's data like socio-demographic profile, duration, frequency, site of application, contents of the topical cream used, prescriber information, and patients' desire to continue the use of topical steroids were recorded. RESULTS: Total of 18.40% (n = 503) patients were already using cream-containing TCS at the time of presentation to the tertiary dermatology care center. The study shows that almost half of the patients (48.90%) were using unprescribed TCS. Registered medical practitioners were the most common source of TCS creams prescription (59.92%) in the prescribed group, while 26.07% patients were prescribed TCS by dermatologists. Clobetasol propionate (47.91%), was most common steroid agent used. CONCLUSION: Patients are able to get "prescription-only" drugs as OTC products. Such OTC use of TCS puts patients at risk of steroid modified dermatophytosis and topical steroid damaged skin. Even dermatologists may be culprit in creating menace of steroid abuse.

Assessment of knowledge, attitude, and behavior about the disease process and physiotherapy management in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a group of progressive lung diseases; the most common are emphysema and chronic bronchitis. It is considered to be the major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and is considered to be one of the leading causes of deaths in India, the main reason being misconception/misinterpretation of the disease and unawareness about the risk factors which hinder early diagnosis and its treatment effectively. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitude and behavior about the disease process and physiotherapy management in patients diagnosed with COPD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ethical clearance was obtained before initiating the study. It was a cross-sectional, qualitative study. In total, 14 patients of COPD were recruited for the study by convenience sampling. The total study duration was 6 months. Two focused groups (n = 14) were conducted with seven COPD patients (diagnosed by chest physician on the basis of pulmonary function testing) in each after obtaining the written informed consent. Focus group contents were video graphed after obtaining the consent and a focus group discussion (FGD) guide comprising of 15 questions was used for the study. Transcripts were prepared from the audio/video recordings and were analyzed qualitatively by narrative analysis. RESULTS: The narration transcripted during both the sessions of FGD showed significant negligence about the disease process, its precipitating factors, preventive measures, and physiotherapy management among the patients suffering from COPD in the community. None of the patients were aware even about the term "chronic obstructive pulmonary disease" and only 35.71% of patients were aware of physiotherapy management as a mean of treatment for COPD. CONCLUSIONS: The present study concludes that there is a lack of knowledge, incorrect attitudes, and flawed behavioral changes which needs to be corrected among the patients with COPD. These patients require correct, detailed, and broad-based information about their condition and availability of treatment options.

Community pharmacist perceptions of their role and the use of social media and mobile health applications as tools in public health.

BACKGROUND: A number of barriers prevent community pharmacists (CPs) from impacting public health (PH) outcomes. Social media (SM) and mobile health apps (MH apps) may offer ways to help the public make positive health decisions. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate CP perceptions of their role in PH and the use of SM and MH apps in this regard. METHODS: This was a mixed method study using a cross-sectional survey and follow-up interviews. The survey covered: CPs role in PH; CP use of SM; CP use of MH apps; non-identifiable demographic information. Following ethical approval and piloting, responses were collected on paper and online. The study population was CPs in Greater London, UK (n = 2931). A minimum sample size of 340 was calculated (95% confidence interval/5% margin of error). To achieve this, 596 surveys were distributed. Responses (n = 257) were analysed using descriptive statistics. Twenty-five respondents were willing to take part in follow-up one-to-one interviews. Twenty interviews were completed as data saturation was achieved after the 14th. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using framework methodology as described by Ritchie and Spencer in 1994. RESULTS: Survey response rate was 43%. Respondents represented English CPs in terms of age but males and non-whites were over-represented. The majority of CPs accessed SM and MH apps for personal use but did not recommend these in a professional capacity due to lack of awareness and confidentiality/liability concerns. Most would promote an SM health page (78.6%) or MH app (83.7%) if maintained by healthcare professionals (HCPs). Under 35s were more positive about these tools in PH. Two interview themes emerged: The role of CPs in PH; Concerns and opportunities for the use of technology in PH. CONCLUSIONS: Most CPs, particularly those under 30, were positive about the use of SM and MH apps in PH. Training on the use of such tools among the pharmacy team, and an awareness of the availability of evidence-based apps will ensure their wider adoption.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.