MRI Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADC) as a Biomarker of Tumour Response: Imaging-Pathology Correlation in Patients with Hepatic Metastases from Colorectal Cancer (EORTC 1423).

Background: Tumour apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) from diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a putative pharmacodynamic/response biomarker but the relationship between drug-induced effects on the ADC and on the underlying pathology has not been adequately defined. Hypothesis: Changes in ADC during early chemotherapy reflect underlying histological markers of tumour response as measured by tumour regression grade (TRG). Methods: Twenty-six patients were enrolled in the study. Baseline, 14 days, and pre-surgery MRI were performed per study protocol. Surgical resection was performed in 23 of the enrolled patients; imaging-pathological correlation was obtained from 39 lesions from 21 patients. Results: There was no evidence of correlation between TRG and ADC changes at day 14 (study primary endpoint), and no significant correlation with other ADC metrics. In scans acquired one week prior to surgery, there was no significant correlation between ADC metrics and percentage of viable tumour, percentage necrosis, percentage fibrosis, or Ki67 index. Conclusions: Our hypothesis was not supported by the data. The lack of meaningful correlation between change in ADC and TRG is a robust finding which is not explained by variability or small sample size. Change in ADC is not a proxy for TRG in metastatic colorectal cancer.

Considering tumour volume for motion corrected DWI of colorectal liver metastases increases sensitivity of ADC to detect treatment-induced changes.

ADC is a potential post treatment imaging biomarker in colorectal liver metastasis however measurements are affected by respiratory motion. This is compounded by increased statistical uncertainty in ADC measurement with decreasing tumour volume. In this prospective study we applied a retrospective motion correction method to improve the image quality of 15 tumour data sets from 11 patients. We compared repeatability of ADC measurements corrected for motion artefact against non-motion corrected acquisition of the same data set. We then applied an error model that estimated the uncertainty in ADC repeatability measurements therefore taking into consideration tumour volume. Test-retest differences in ADC for each tumour, was scaled to their estimated measurement uncertainty, and 95% confidence limits were calculated, with a null hypothesis that there is no difference between the model distribution and the data. An early post treatment scan (within 7 days of starting treatment) was acquired for 12 tumours from 8 patients. When accounting for both motion artefact and statistical uncertainty due to tumour volumes, the threshold for detecting significant post treatment changes for an individual tumour in this data set, reduced from 30.3% to 1.7% (95% limits of agreement). Applying these constraints, a significant change in ADC (5th and 20th percentiles of the ADC histogram) was observed in 5 patients post treatment. For smaller studies, motion correcting data for small tumour volumes increased statistical efficiency to detect post treatment changes in ADC. Lower percentiles may be more sensitive than mean ADC for colorectal metastases.

A data-driven statistical model that estimates measurement uncertainty improves interpretation of ADC reproducibility: a multi-site study of liver metastases.

Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADC) is a potential quantitative imaging biomarker for tumour cell density and is widely used to detect early treatment changes in cancer therapy. We propose a strategy to improve confidence in the interpretation of measured changes in ADC using a data-driven model that describes sources of measurement error. Observed ADC is then standardised against this estimation of uncertainty for any given measurement. 20 patients were recruited prospectively and equitably across 4 sites, and scanned twice (test-retest) within 7 days. Repeatability measurements of defined regions (ROIs) of tumour and normal tissue were quantified as percentage change in mean ADC (test vs. re-test) and then standardised against an estimation of uncertainty. Multi-site reproducibility, (quantified as width of the 95% confidence bound between the lower confidence interval and higher confidence interval for all repeatability measurements), was compared before and after standardisation to the model. The 95% confidence interval width used to determine a statistically significant change reduced from 21.1 to 2.7% after standardisation. Small tumour volumes and respiratory motion were found to be important contributors to poor reproducibility. A look up chart has been provided for investigators who would like to estimate uncertainty from statistical error on individual ADC measurements.