Vaccination and screening strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination in Norway: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Experts have proposed an 'EVEN FASTER' concept targeting age-groups maintaining circulation of human papillomavirus (HPV). We explored effects of the vaccination component of these proposals compared with cervical cancer (CC) screening-based interventions on age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and CC elimination (<4 cases/100,000) timing in Norway. METHODS: We used a model-based approach to evaluate HPV vaccination and CC screening scenarios compared with a status-quo scenario reflecting previous vaccination and screening. For cohorts ages 25-30 years, we examined 6 vaccination scenarios that incrementally increased vaccination coverage from current cohort-specific rates. Each vaccination scenario was coupled with three screening strategies that varied screening frequency. Additionally, we included 4 scenarios that alternatively increased screening adherence. Population- and cohort-level outcomes included ASR, lifetime risk of CC, and colposcopy referrals. RESULTS: Several vaccination strategies coupled with de-intensified screening frequencies lowered ASR, but did not accelerate CC elimination. Alternative strategies that increased screening adherence could both accelerate elimination and improve ASR. CONCLUSIONS: The vaccination component of an 'EVEN FASTER' campaign is unlikely to accelerate CC elimination in Norway but may reduce population-level ASR. Alternatively, targeting under- and never-screeners may both eliminate CC faster and lead to greater health benefits compared with vaccination-based interventions we considered.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty in Cost-Effectiveness Modeling of Gestational Diabetes Screening: An Application Example from Norway.

BACKGROUND: Screening pregnant women for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) has recently been expanded in Norway, although screening eligibility criteria continue to be debated. We aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of alternative GDM screening strategies and explored structural uncertainty and the value of future research in determining the most cost-effective eligibility criteria for GDM screening in Norway. DESIGN: We developed a probabilistic decision tree to estimate the total costs and health benefits (i.e., quality-adjusted life-years; QALYs) associated with 4 GDM screening strategies (universal, current guidelines, high-risk, and no screening). We identified the most cost-effective strategy as the strategy with the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below a Norwegian benchmark for cost-effectiveness ($28,400/QALY). We excluded inconclusive evidence on the effects of screening on later maternal type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the primary analysis but included this outcome in a secondary analysis using 2 different sources of evidence (i.e., Cochrane or US Preventive Services Task Force). To quantify decision uncertainty, we conducted scenario analysis and value-of-information analyses. RESULTS: Current screening recommendations were considered inefficient in all analyses, while universal screening was most cost-effective in our primary analysis ($26,014/QALY gained) and remained most cost-effective when we assumed a preventive effect of GDM treatment on T2DM. When we assumed no preventive effect, high-risk screening was preferred ($19,115/QALY gained). When we assumed GDM screening does not prevent perinatal death in scenario analysis, all strategies except no screening exceeded the cost-effectiveness benchmark. In most analyses, decision uncertainty was high. CONCLUSIONS: The most cost-effective screening strategy, ranging from no screening to universal screening, depended on the source and inclusion of GDM treatment effects on perinatal death and T2DM. Further research on these long-term outcomes could reduce decision uncertainty. HIGHLIGHTS: This article analyses the cost-effectiveness of 4 alternative gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) screening strategies in Norway: universal screening, current (broad) screening, high-risk screening, and no screening.The current Norwegian screening recommendations were considered inefficient under all analyses.The most cost-effective screening strategy ranged from no screening to universal screening depending on the source and inclusion of GDM treatment effects on later maternal diabetes and perinatal death.The parameters related to later maternal diabetes and perinatal death accounted for most of the decision uncertainty.

Experiences with telemedicine-based follow-up of chronic conditions: the views of patients and health personnel enrolled in a pragmatic randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine is often promoted as a possible solution to some of the challenges healthcare systems in many countries face, and an increasing number of studies evaluate the clinical effects. So far, the studies show varying results. Less attention has been paid to systemic factors, such as the context, implementation, and mechanisms of these interventions. METHODS: This study evaluates the experiences of patients and health personnel enrolled in a pragmatic randomized controlled trial comparing telemedicine-based follow-up of chronic conditions with usual care. Patients in the intervention group received an individual treatment plan together with computer tablets and home telemonitoring devices to report point-of-care measurements, e.g., blood pressure, blood glucose or oxygen saturation, and to respond to health related questions reported to a follow-up service. In response to abnormal measurement results, a follow-up service nurse would contact the patient and consider relevant actions. We conducted 49 interviews with patients and 77 interviews with health personnel and managers at the local centers. The interview data were analyzed using thematic analysis and based on recommendations for conducting process evaluation, considering three core aspects within the process of delivering a complex intervention: (1) context, (2) implementation, and (3) mechanisms of impact. RESULTS: Patients were mainly satisfied with the telemedicine-based service, and experienced increased safety and understanding of their symptoms and illness. Implementation of the service does, however, require dedicated resources over time. Slow adjustment of other healthcare providers may have contributed to the absence of reductions in the use of specialized healthcare and general practitioner (GP) services. An evident advantage of the service is its flexibility, yet this may also challenge cost-efficiency of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a telemedicine-based service in primary healthcare is a complex process that is sensitive to contextual factors and that requires time and dedicated resources to ensure successful implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered in www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov (NCT04142710). Study start: 2019-02-09, Study completion: 2021-06-30, Study type: Interventional, Intervention/treatment: Telemedicine tablet and tools to perform measurements. Informed and documented consent was obtained from all subjects and next of kin participating in the study.

Pragmatic randomized controlled trial comparing a complex telemedicine-based intervention with usual care in patients with chronic conditions.

This study evaluates a complex telemedicine-based intervention targeting patients with chronic health problems. Computer tablets and home telemonitoring devices are used by patients to report point-of-care measurements, e.g., blood pressure, blood glucose or oxygen saturation, and to answer health-related questions at a follow-up center. We designed a pragmatic randomized controlled trial to compare the telemedicine-based intervention with usual care in six local centers in Norway. The study outcomes included health-related quality of life (HRQoL) based on the EuroQol questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), patient experiences, and utilization of healthcare. We also conducted a cost-benefit analysis to inform policy implementation, as well as a process evaluation (reported elsewhere). We used mixed methods to analyze data collected during the trial (health data, survey data and interviews with patients and health personnel) as well as data from national health registers. 735 patients were included during the period from February 2019 to June 2020. One year after inclusion, the effects on the use of healthcare services were mixed. The proportion of patients receiving home-based care services declined, but the number of GP contacts increased in the intervention group compared to the control group. Participants in the intervention group experienced improved HRQoL compared to the control group and were more satisfied with the follow-up of their health. The cost-benefit of the intervention depends largely on the design of the service and the value society places on improved safety and self-efficacy.

Cost-effectiveness of primary human papillomavirus triage approaches among vaccinated women in Norway: A model-based analysis.

As Norway considers revising triage approaches following their first adolescent cohort with human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination entering the cervical cancer screening program, we analyzed the health impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative primary HPV triage approaches for women initiating cervical cancer screening in 2023. We used a multimodeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to evaluate the health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of alternative extended genotyping and age-based triage strategies under five-yearly primary HPV testing (including the status-quo screening strategy in Norway) for women born in 1998 (ie, age 25 in 2023). We examined 35 strategies that varied alternative groupings of high-risk HPV genotypes ("high-risk" genotypes; "medium-risk" genotypes or "intermediate-risk" genotypes), number and types of HPV included in each group, management of HPV-positive women to direct colposcopy or active surveillance, wait time for re-testing and age at which the HPV triage algorithm switched from less to more intensive strategies. Given the range of benchmarks for severity-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway, we found that the preferred strategy for vaccinated women aged 25 years in 2023 involved an age-based switch from a less to more intensive follow-up algorithm at age 30 or 35 years with HPV-16/18 genotypes in the "high-risk" group. The two potentially cost-effective strategies could reduce the number of colposcopies compared to current guidelines and simultaneously improve health benefits. Using age to guide primary HPV triage, paired with selective HPV genotype and follow-up time for re-testing, could improve both the cervical cancer program effectiveness and efficiency.

Expanding general practice with interprofessional teams: a mixed-methods patient perspective study.

BACKGROUND: Across healthcare systems, current health policies promote interprofessional teamwork. Compared to single-profession general practitioner care, interprofessional primary healthcare teams are expected to possess added capacity to care for an increasingly complex patient population. This study aims to explore patients' experiences when their usual primary healthcare encounter with general practice shifts from single-profession general practitioner care to interprofessional team-based care. METHODS: Qualitative and quantitative data were collected through interviews and a survey among Norwegian patients. The interviews included ten patients (five women and five men) aged between 28 and 89, and four next of kin (all women). The qualitative analysis was carried out using thematic analysis and a continuity framework. The survey included 287 respondents, comprising 58 per cent female and 42 per cent male participants, aged 18 years and above. The respondents exhibited multiple diagnoses and often a lengthy history of illness. All participants experienced the transition to interprofessional teamwork at their general practitioner surgery as part of a primary healthcare team pilot. RESULTS: The interviewees described team-based care as more fitting and better coordinated, including more time and more learning than with single-profession general practitioner care. Most survey respondents experienced improvements in understanding and mastering their health problems. Multi-morbid elderly interviewees and interviewees with mental illness shared experiences of improved information continuity. They found that important concerns they had raised with the nurse were known to the general practitioner and vice versa. None of the interviewees expressed dissatisfaction with the inclusion of a nurse in their general practitioner relationship. Several interviewees noted improved access to care. The nurse was seen as a strengthening link to the general practitioner. The survey respondents expressed strong agreement with being followed up by a nurse. The interviewees trusted that it was their general practitioner who controlled what happened to them in the general practitioner surgery. CONCLUSION: From the patients' perspective, interprofessional teamwork in general practice can strengthen management, informational, and relational continuity. However, a prerequisite seems to be a clear general practitioner presence in the team.

Designing Guidelines for Those Who Do Not Follow Them: The Impact of Adherence Assumptions on Optimal Screening Guidelines.

OBJECTIVES: Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses can inform decisions about screening guidelines by quantifying consequences of alternative algorithms. Although actual screening adherence is imperfect, incorporating nonadherence into analyses that aim to determine optimal screening may affect the policy recommendations. We evaluated the impact of nonadherence assumptions on the optimal cervical cancer screening in Norway. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of cervical carcinogenesis to project the long-term health and economic outcomes under alternative screening algorithms and adherence patterns. We compared 18 algorithms involving primary human papillomavirus testing (5-yearly) that varied follow-up management of different human papillomavirus results. We considered 12 adherence scenarios: perfect adherence, 8 high- and low-coverage "random-complier" scenarios, and 3 "systematic-complier" scenarios that reflect conditional screening behavior over a lifetime. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and considered a strategy with the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio < 55 000 US dollars/quality-adjusted life-year as "optimal." RESULTS: Under perfect adherence, the least intensive screening strategy was optimal; in contrast, assuming any nonadherence resulted in a more intensive optimal strategy. Accounting for lower adherence resulted in both lower costs and health benefits, which allowed for a more intensive strategy to be considered optimal, but more harms for women who screen according to guidelines (ie, up to 41% more colposcopies when comparing the optimal strategy in the lowest-adherence scenario with the optimal strategy under perfect adherence). CONCLUSIONS: Assuming nonadherence in analyses designed to inform national guidelines may lead to a relatively more intensive recommendation. Designing guidelines for those who do not adhere to them may lead to over-screening of those who do.

The cost-effectiveness of opt-in and send-to-all HPV self-sampling among long-term non-attenders to cervical cancer screening in Norway: The Equalscreen randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of mailing a human papillomavirus self-sampling (HPV-ss) kit, directly or via invitation to order, compared with mailing reminder letters among long-term non-attenders in Norway. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis using the Equalscreen study data with 6000 women aged 35-69 years who had not screened in 10+ years. Participants were equally randomized into three arms: reminder letter (control); invitation to order HPV-ss kit (opt-in); directly mailed HPV-ss kit (send-to-all). Cost-effectiveness (2020 Great British Pounds (GBP)) was estimated using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per additional screened woman, and per additional cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) from extended and direct healthcare perspectives. RESULTS: Participation, CIN2+ detection, and total screening costs were highest in the send-to-all arm, followed by the opt-in and control arms. Non-histological physician appointments contributed to 67% of the total costs in the control arm and ≤ 31% in the self-sampling arms. From an expanded healthcare perspective, the ICERs were 135 GBP and 169 GBP per additional screened woman, and 2864 GBP and 4165 GBP per additional CIN2+ detected for the opt-in and send-to-all, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Opt-in and send-to-all self-sampling were more effective and, depending on willingness-to-pay, may be considered cost-effective alternatives to improve screening attendance in Norway.

Identifying a Single Optimal Integrated Cervical Cancer Prevention Policy in Norway: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Interventions targeting the same disease but at different points along the disease continuum (e.g., screening and vaccination to prevent cervical cancer [CC]) are often evaluated in isolation, which can affect cost-effectiveness profiles and policy conclusions. We evaluated nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (9vHPV) compared with bivalent HPV vaccine (2vHPV) alongside deintensified screening intervals for a vaccinated birth cohort to inform a single optimal integrated CC prevention policy. METHODS: Using a multimodeling approach, we evaluated the health and economic impacts of alternative CC screening strategies for a Norwegian birth cohort eligible for HPV vaccination in 2021 assuming they received 1) 2vHPV or 2) 9vHPV. We conducted 1) a restricted analysis that evaluated the optimal HPV vaccine under current screening guidelines; and 2) a comprehensive analysis including alternative screening and vaccination strategy combinations. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and evaluated them according to different cost-effectiveness thresholds. RESULTS: Assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of $40,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, we found that, while holding screening intensity fixed, switching the routine vaccination program in Norway from 2vHPV to 9vHPV would not be considered cost-effective (ICER of $132,700 per QALY gained). However, when allowing for varying intensities of CC screening, we found that switching to 9vHPV would be cost-effective compared with 2vHPV under an alternative threshold of $55,000 per QALY gained, if coupled with reductions in the number of lifetime screens. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis highlights the importance of evaluating the full potential policy landscape for country-level decision makers considering policy adoption, including nonindependent primary and secondary prevention efforts, to draw appropriate conclusions and avoid sub-optimal outcomes. HIGHLIGHTS: Without evaluating the full potential policy landscape, including primary and secondary prevention efforts, country-level decision makers may not be able to draw appropriate policy conclusions, resulting in suboptimal outcomes.An applied example from cervical cancer prevention in Norway compared a restricted analysis of current screening guidelines to a comprehensive analysis including alternative screening and vaccination strategy combinations.We found that a switch from bivalent to nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine would be considered cost-effective in Norway if coupled with reductions in the number of lifetime screens compared with the current screening strategy.A comprehensive analysis that considers how different types of interventions along the disease continuum affect each other will be critical for decision makers interpreting cost-effectiveness analysis results.

Switching clinic-based cervical cancer screening programs to human papillomavirus self-sampling: A cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccinated and unvaccinated Norwegian women.

Several countries have implemented primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical cancer screening. HPV testing enables home-based, self-collected sampling (self-sampling), which provides similar diagnostic accuracy as clinician-collected samples. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of switching an entire organized screening program to primary HPV self-sampling among cohorts of HPV vaccinated and unvaccinated Norwegian women. We conducted a model-based analysis to project long-term health and economic outcomes for birth cohorts with different HPV vaccine exposure, that is, preadolescent vaccination (2000- and 2008-cohorts), multiage cohort vaccination (1991-cohort) or no vaccination (1985-cohort). We compared the cost-effectiveness of switching current guidelines with clinician-collected HPV testing to HPV self-sampling for these cohorts and considered an additional 44 strategies involving either HPV self-sampling or clinician-collected HPV testing at different screening frequencies for the 2000- and 2008-cohorts. Given Norwegian benchmarks for cost-effectiveness, we considered a strategy with an additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year below $55 000 as cost-effective. HPV self-sampling strategies considerably reduced screening costs (ie, by 24%-40% across cohorts and alternative strategies) and were more cost-effective than clinician-collected HPV testing. For cohorts offered preadolescent vaccination, cost-effective strategies involved HPV self-sampling three times (2000-cohort) and twice (2008-cohort) per lifetime. In conclusion, we found that switching from clinician-collected to self-collected HPV testing in cervical screening may be cost-effective among both highly vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts of Norwegian women.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination: A model-based analysis.

Following the global call for action by the World Health Organization to eliminate cervical cancer (CC), we evaluated how each CC policy decision in Norway influenced the timing of CC elimination, and whether introducing nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine would accelerate elimination timing and be cost-effective. We used a multi-modeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to estimate the CC incidence associated with six past and future CC prevention policy decisions compared with a pre-vaccination scenario involving 3-yearly cytology-based screening. Scenarios examined the introduction of routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with quadrivalent vaccine in 2009, a temporary catch-up program for females aged up to 26 years in 2016-2018 with bivalent vaccine, the universal switch to bivalent vaccine in 2017, expansion to include 12-year-old boys in 2018, the switch from cytology- to HPV-based screening for women aged 34-69 in 2020, and the potential switch to nonavalent vaccine in 2021. Introducing routine female vaccination in 2009 enabled elimination to be achieved by 2056 and prevented 17,300 cases. Cumulatively, subsequent policy decisions accelerated elimination to 2039. According to our modeling assumptions, switching to the nonavalent vaccine would not be considered 'good value for money' at relevant cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway unless the incremental cost was $19 per dose or less (range: $17-24) compared to the bivalent vaccine. CC control policies implemented over the last decade in Norway may have accelerated the timeframe to elimination by more than 17 years and prevented over 23,800 cases by 2110.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with primary HPV testing for unvaccinated women in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Sweden revised their cervical cancer screening program in 2017 to include cytology-based screening for women aged 23-29 years and primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women aged 30-64 years; however, alternative strategies may be preferred. To inform cervical cancer prevention policies for unvaccinated women, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies, including the current Swedish guidelines. METHODS: We adapted a mathematical simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer to the Swedish context using primary epidemiologic data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies that varied by the age to start screening, the age to switch from cytology to HPV testing, HPV strategies not preceded by cytology, screening frequency, and management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women. RESULTS: We found that the current Swedish guidelines were more costly and less effective than alternative primary HPV-based strategies. All cost-efficient strategies involved primary HPV testing not preceded by cytology for younger women. Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of €85,619 per quality-adjusted life year gained, the optimal strategy involved 5-yearly primary HPV-based screening for women aged 23-50 years and 10-yearly HPV-based screening for women older than age 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: Primary screening based on HPV alone may be considered for unvaccinated women for those countries with similar HPV burdens.

The healthcare costs of treating human papillomavirus-related cancers in Norway.

BACKGROUND: Public health efforts to prevent human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers include HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening. We quantified the annual healthcare cost of six HPV-related cancers in order to provide inputs in cost-effectiveness analyses and quantify the potential economic savings from prevention of HPV-related cancers in Norway. METHODS: Using individual patient-level data from three unlinked population-based registries, we estimated the mean healthcare costs 1) annually across all phases of disease, 2) during the first 3 years of care following diagnosis, and 3) for the last 12 months of life for patients diagnosed with an HPV-related cancer. We included episodes of care related to primary care physicians, specialist care (private specialists and hospital-based care and prescriptions), and prescription drugs redeemed at pharmacies outside hospitals between 2012 and 2014. We valued costs (2014 €1.00 = NOK 8.357) based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG), patient copayments, reimbursement fees and pharmacy retail prices. RESULTS: In 2014, the total healthcare cost of HPV-related cancers amounted to €39.8 million, of which specialist care accounted for more than 99% of the total cost. The annual maximum economic burden potentially averted due to HPV vaccination will be lower for vulvar, penile and vaginal cancer (i.e., €984,620, €762,964 and €374,857, respectively) than for cervical, anal and oropharyngeal cancers (i.e., €17.2 million, €6.7 million and €4.6 million, respectively). Over the first three years of treatment following cancer diagnosis, patients diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer incurred the highest total cost per patient (i.e. €49,774), while penile cancer had the lowest total cost per patient (i.e. €18,350). In general, costs were highest the first year following diagnosis and then declined; however, costs increased rapidly again towards end of life for patients who did not survive. CONCLUSION: HPV-related cancers constitute a considerable economic burden to the Norwegian healthcare system. As the proportion of HPV-vaccinated individuals increase and secondary prevention approaches advance, this study highlights the potential economic burden avoided by preventing these cancers.

An overview of cervical cancer epidemiology and prevention in Scandinavia.

New technologies such as human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and vaccination necessitate comprehensive policy analyses to optimize cervical cancer prevention. To inform future Scandinavian-specific policy analyses, we aimed to provide an overview of cervical cancer epidemiology and existing prevention efforts in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. We compiled and summarized data on current prevention strategies, population demography and epidemiology (for example, age-specific HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence over time) for each Scandinavian country by reviewing published literature and official guidelines, performing registry-based analyses using primary data and having discussions with experts in each country. In Scandinavia, opportunistic screening occurred as early as the 1950s and by 1996, all countries had implemented nationwide organized cytology-based screening. Prior to implementation of widespread screening and during 1960-66, cervical cancer incidence was considerably higher in Denmark than in Norway and Sweden. Decades of cytology-based screening later (i.e. 2010-2014), cervical cancer incidence has been considerably reduced and has converged across the countries since the 1960s, although it still remains lowest in Sweden. Generally, Scandinavian countries face similar cervical cancer burdens and utilize similar prevention approaches; however, important differences remain. Future policy analyses will need to evaluate whether these differences warrant differential prevention policies or whether efforts can be streamlined across Scandinavia.

Adapting cervical cancer screening for women vaccinated against human papillomavirus infections: The value of stratifying guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Several countries have implemented vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) for adolescent girls and must decide whether and how to adapt cervical cancer (CC) screening for these low-risk women. We aimed to identify the optimal screening strategies for women vaccinated against HPV infections and quantify the amount that could be spent to identify vaccination status among women and stratify CC screening guidelines accordingly. METHODS: We used a mathematical model reflecting HPV-induced CC in Norway to project the long-term health benefits, resources and costs associated with 74 candidate-screening strategies that varied by screening test, start age and frequency. Strategies were considered separately for women vaccinated with the bivalent/quadrivalent (2/4vHPV) and nonavalent (9vHPV) vaccines. We used a cost-effectiveness framework (i.e. incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefit) and a commonly-cited Norwegian willingness-to-pay threshold of €75,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RESULTS: The most cost-effective screening strategy for 9vHPV- and 2/4vHPV-vaccinated women involved HPV testing once and twice per lifetime, respectively. The value of stratifying guidelines by vaccination status was €599 (2/4vHPV) and €725 (9vHPV) per vaccinated woman. Consequently, for the first birth cohort of ∼22,000 women who were vaccinated in adolescence in Norway, between €10.5-13.2 million over their lifetime could be spent on identifying individual vaccination status and stratify screening while remaining cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Less intensive strategies are required for CC screening to remain cost-effective in HPV-vaccinated women. Moreover, screening can remain cost-effective even if large investments are made to identify individual vaccination status and stratify screening guidelines accordingly.

Advancing the evaluation of cervical cancer screening: development and application of a longitudinal adherence metric.

Background: Attendance to routine cancer screening at repeated intervals is essential for reducing morbidity and mortality of targeted cancers, yet currently defined quality-assurance metrics evaluate coverage within a defined period of time (e.g. 3.5 years). Methods: We developed a longitudinal adherence metric that captures attendance to cancer screening at repeated intervals, and applied the metric to population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway that captures two decades of organised cervical cancer screening, including all screening tests and cervical cancer diagnoses for women living in Norway at any time during years 1992-2013 and eligible for at least two screening rounds (1 round = 3.5 years, N = 1 391 812). For each woman, we calculated the proportion of eligible screening rounds with at least one registered cytology test, and categorised women into one of five longitudinal adherence categories: never-screeners, severe under-screeners, moderate under-screeners, guidelines-based screeners and over-screeners. For each category, we evaluated cancer outcomes such as cancer stage at diagnosis. Results: Only 46% of screen-eligible women were consistently screened at least once every 3.5 years, and the majority of these were over-screened. In contrast, 29% were moderately under-screened, 17% were severely under-screened and 8% had never attended screening. Screening behaviour was associated with cancer outcomes; e.g., the proportion of cancers diagnosed at Stage I increased from 21% among never-screeners to 70% among over-screeners. Conclusion: The longitudinal adherence metric evaluates screening performance as a succession of screening episodes, reflecting both guidelines and the fundamental principles of screening, and may be a valuable addition to existing performance indicators.

Choosing wisely: a model-based analysis evaluating the trade-offs in cancer benefit and diagnostic referrals among alternative HPV testing strategies in Norway.

BACKGROUND: Forthcoming cervical cancer screening strategies involving human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women not vaccinated against HPV infections may increase colposcopy referral rates. We quantified health and resource trade-offs associated with alternative HPV-based algorithms to inform decision-makers when choosing between candidate algorithms. METHODS: We used a mathematical simulation model of HPV-induced cervical carcinogenesis in Norway. We compared the current cytology-based strategy to alternative strategies that varied by the switching age to primary HPV testing (ages 25-34 years), the routine screening frequency (every 3-10 years), and management of HPV-positive, cytology-negative women. Model outcomes included reductions in lifetime cervical cancer risk, relative colposcopy rates, and colposcopy rates per cervical cancer prevented. RESULTS: The age of switching to primary HPV testing and the screening frequency had the largest impacts on cancer risk reductions, which ranged from 90.9% to 96.3% compared to no screening. In contrast, increasing the follow-up intensity of HPV-positive, cytology-negative women provided only minor improvements in cancer benefits, but generally required considerably higher rates of colposcopy referrals compared to current levels, resulting in less efficient cervical cancer prevention. CONCLUSIONS: We found that in order to maximise cancer benefits HPV-based screening among unvaccinated women should not be delayed: rather, policy makers should utilise the triage mechanism to control colposcopy referrals.

Did hospitals respond to changes in weights of Diagnosis Related Groups in Norway between 2006 and 2013?

It has been argued that activity based payment systems make hospitals focus on the diagnostic groups that are most beneficial given costs and reimbursement rates. This article tests this hypothesis by exploring the relationship between changes in the reimbursement rates and changes in the number of registered treatment episodes for all diagnosis-related groups in Norway between 2006 and 2013. The number of treatment episodes can be affected by many factors and in order to isolate the effect of changes in the reimbursement system, we exclude DRGs affected by policy reforms and administrative changes. The results show that hospitals increased the number of admissions in a specific DRG four times more when the reimbursement was increased, relative to the change for DRGs with reduced rates. The direction of the result was consistent across time periods and sub-groups such as surgical vs. medical, and inpatient vs. outpatient DRGs. The effect was smaller, but remained significant after eliminating DRGs that were most likely to be affected by upcoding. Activities that the hospital had little control over, such as the number of births, had small effects, while activity levels in more discretionary categories, for instance mental diseases, were more affected. This demonstrates that contrary to the wishes of policy makers the economic incentives affect hospital reporting and priority setting behavior.