The missed HIV-positive children of Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: As elsewhere, due to scarcity of data and limited awareness of HIV infection, especially in older children, the HIV epidemic among Ethiopian children appears neglected in national programs (children ART coverage is of only 12% in 2013). This paper estimates the country burden of HIV in older children and investigates the prevalence of HIV in orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) households. DESIGN/METHODS: We analyzed national HIV data for Ethiopia, using Spectrum/ Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and primary data on children living in households with at least one HIV-positive adult in the Amhara and Tigrai regions. Descriptive analysis of the age and sex distribution of HIV-positive OVC in Ethiopia was performed. RESULTS: Our Spectrum/EPP analysis estimated the population of HIV-positive children under 15 years old to be 160,000 in 2013. The majority of children (81•6%) were aged five to 14 years. The estimated number of orphans due to AIDS was 800,000. The empirical data from almost 10,000 OVC under 18 years showed 11•9% were HIV-positive, the majority of whom were between five and 10 years old with no significant difference between males and females. CONCLUSIONS: There is a large population of children living with HIV in Ethiopia, the magnitude of which not previously recognized. The majority were vertically infected and never identified nor linked into treatment. OVC represent a reachable group which could account for a substantial proportion of the HIV infected older children. We recommend that HIV programs urgently synergize with social protection sectors and address these children with HIV testing and related services.

The HIV epidemic and prevention response in Tigrai, Ethiopia: a synthesis at sub-national level.

BACKGROUND: This study, the first of its kind carried out at sub-national level in Ethiopia, was conducted in order to understand the dynamics of HIV transmission at regional and district level in Tigrai, Ethiopia; and to assess the adequacy of the HIV prevention response. METHODS: Routine data from health centres, data from available published and grey literature and studies, and primary qualitative information were triangulated to draw an updated picture of the HIV epidemic, HIV response and resource allocation in Tigrai. RESULTS: HIV prevalence in Tigrai was 1.8% in 2011 (EDHS). ANC data show that there has been a continuous decline in the prevalence of HIV in both urban and rural areas (urban: 14.9% in 2001 to 5.0% in 2009; rural: 5.2% in 2001 to 1.3% in 2009, ANC surveillance data). Variability in prevalence by zone and by district was observed. Possible reasons for higher prevalence include the presence of mobile seasonal workers, highly urbanized centres, a high concentration of economic activity and connecting roads and large commercial farms. Sex workers, seasonal farm workers and HIV negative partners in discordant couples were identified as being at higher risk. There is no evidence that programme planning is done on the basis of geographical variations in HIV prevalence and there are gaps in programmes and services for certain high risk population groups. CONCLUSION: Considerable efforts have been invested in the HIV prevention response in Tigrai however, these efforts do not fully respond to the actual needs. For a more effective and targeted HIV prevention response, studies and data syntheses need to be carried out at sub-national level in order to accurately identify local specificities and plan accordingly. Resources should be targeted towards areas where transmission is linked to sex work, mobility and the mobile labour workforce.

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral regimens and feeding options in Rwanda.

BACKGROUND: Rwanda's National PMTCT program aims to achieve elimination of new HIV infections in children by 2015. In November 2010, Rwanda adopted the WHO 2010 ARV guidelines for PMTCT recommending Option B (HAART) for all HIV-positive pregnant women extended throughout breastfeeding and discontinued (short course-HAART) only for those not eligible for life treatment. The current study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of this policy choice. METHODS: Based on a cohort of HIV-infected pregnant women in Rwanda, we modelled the cost-effectiveness of six regimens: dual ARV prophylaxis with either 12 months breastfeeding or replacement feeding; short course HAART (Sc-HAART) prophylaxis with either 6 months breastfeeding, 12 months breastfeeding, or 18 months breastfeeding; and Sc-HAART prophylaxis with replacement feeding. Direct costs were modelled based on all inputs in each scenario and related unit costs. Effectiveness was evaluated by measuring HIV-free survival at 18 months. Savings correspond to the lifetime costs of HIV treatment and care avoided as a result of all vertical HIV infections averted. RESULTS: All PMTCT scenarios considered are cost saving compared to "no intervention." Sc-HAART with 12 months breastfeeding or 6 months breastfeeding dominate all other scenarios. Sc-HAART with 12 months breastfeeding allows for more children to be alive and HIV-uninfected by 18 months than Sc-HAART with 6 months breastfeeding for an incremental cost per child alive and uninfected of 11,882 USD. This conclusion is sensitive to changes in the relative risk of mortality by 18 months for exposed HIV-uninfected children on replacement feeding from birth and those who were breastfed for only 6 months compared to those breastfeeding for 12 months or more. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the earlier decision by Rwanda to adopt WHO Option B and could inform alternatives for breastfeeding duration. Local contexts and existing care delivery models should be part of national policy decisions.

Facilitating HIV disclosure across diverse settings: a review.

HIV status disclosure is central to debates about HIV because of its potential for HIV prevention and its links to privacy and confidentiality as human-rights issues. Our review of the HIV-disclosure literature found that few people keep their status completely secret; disclosure tends to be iterative and to be higher in high-income countries; gender shapes disclosure motivations and reactions; involuntary disclosure and low levels of partner disclosure highlight the difficulties faced by health workers; the meaning and process of disclosure differ across settings; stigmatization increases fears of disclosure; and the ethical dilemmas resulting from competing values concerning confidentiality influence the extent to which disclosure can be facilitated. Our results suggest that structural changes, including making more services available, could facilitate HIV disclosure as much as individual approaches and counseling do.

High HIV risk behavior among men who have sex with men in Kigali, Rwanda: making the case for supportive prevention policy.

Rwanda has responded strongly to HIV/AIDS, but prevention among men who have sex with men (MSM) has not yet been addressed due to a strong cultural resistance to homosexuality, and a lack of data showing the public health value of attending to the sexual health needs of this group. We conducted an exploratory study on HIV risk among MSM in Kigali using snowball sampling involving peer leaders. The 99 respondents were demographically, socially, and sexually diverse. Respondents reported relatively high numbers of male and female partners, and considerable HIV risk behaviors including commercial sex with men and women, low condom use during anal and vaginal sex, and high mobility. Many respondents reported verbal and/or physical abuse due to their sexuality. This first study of MSM in Rwanda has brought attention to a previously neglected HIV risk group and their potential driving role in the Rwandan epidemic, demonstrating the need for sensitive and targeted interventions.

When one can infect two: a reflection on the impact of HIV discordance on child HIV infection.

This is an opinion piece based on data and experience from Rwanda. The authors believe this opinion piece may help improve current programs on prevention of HIV transmission from mother to child in Africa taking into account the prevalence of HIV sero-discordance in couples. The authors recommend that if we want to ensure newborns stay HIV negative, PMTCT protocols should offer a series of HIV tests linked with antenatal visits and the lactation period as well as HIV testing of current sexual partners. Moreover, if the male partner is found to be positive and the woman is negative, programs should provide intensive counseling on the use of condoms. The lives of three individuals have the potential to be changed from HIV testing and counseling. Morally, this cannot be ignored.

Male circumcision at different ages in Rwanda: a cost-effectiveness study.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence showing that male circumcision (MC) reduces HIV infection and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). In Rwanda, where adult HIV prevalence is 3%, MC is not a traditional practice. The Rwanda National AIDS Commission modelled cost and effects of MC at different ages to inform policy and programmatic decisions in relation to introducing MC. This study was necessary because the MC debate in Southern Africa has focused primarily on MC for adults. Further, this is the first time, to our knowledge, that a cost-effectiveness study on MC has been carried out in a country where HIV prevalence is below 5%. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cost-effectiveness model was developed and applied to three hypothetical cohorts in Rwanda: newborns, adolescents, and adult men. Effectiveness was defined as the number of HIV infections averted, and was calculated as the product of the number of people susceptible to HIV infection in the cohort, the HIV incidence rate at different ages, and the protective effect of MC; discounted back to the year of circumcision and summed over the life expectancy of the circumcised person. Direct costs were based on interviews with experienced health care providers to determine inputs involved in the procedure (from consumables to staff time) and related prices. Other costs included training, patient counselling, treatment of adverse events, and promotion campaigns, and they were adjusted for the averted lifetime cost of health care (antiretroviral therapy [ART], opportunistic infection [OI], laboratory tests). One-way sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the main inputs of the model, and thresholds were calculated at which each intervention is no longer cost-saving and at which an intervention costs more than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per life-year gained. RESULTS: Neonatal MC is less expensive than adolescent and adult MC (US$15 instead of US$59 per procedure) and is cost-saving (the cost-effectiveness ratio is negative), even though savings from infant circumcision will be realized later in time. The cost per infection averted is US$3,932 for adolescent MC and US$4,949 for adult MC. Results for infant MC appear robust. Infant MC remains highly cost-effective across a reasonable range of variation in the base case scenario. Adolescent MC is highly cost-effective for the base case scenario but this high cost-effectiveness is not robust to small changes in the input variables. Adult MC is neither cost-saving nor highly cost-effective when considering only the direct benefit for the circumcised man. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that Rwanda should be simultaneously scaling up circumcision across a broad range of age groups, with high priority to the very young. Infant MC can be integrated into existing health services (i.e., neonatal visits and vaccination sessions) and over time has better potential than adolescent and adult circumcision to achieve the very high coverage of the population required for maximal reduction of HIV incidence. In the presence of infant MC, adolescent and adult MC would evolve into a "catch-up" campaign that would be needed at the start of the program but would eventually become superfluous. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The effects and costs of expanding the coverage of immunisation services in developing countries: a systematic literature review.

The range of potential effects and costs of interventions to expand the coverage of immunisation programs in developing countries was reviewed for the first time and demonstrated that increasing coverage is achievable. With the exception of a mass campaign, all interventions were reported to increase the proportion of fully vaccinated children. The findings are of particular value for policy debates about the introduction of new vaccines versus the need to vaccinate as many children as possible with the current ones. The review highlighted the need for: cost analyses to be undertaken alongside evaluations of interventions; and an improvement in the methodological quality of studies.

The economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the education sector in Zambia.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate and project the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the supply of education in Zambia. DESIGN: An analysis of the financial implications of HIV/AIDS for the Ministry of Education (MoE) and donors funding education in Zambia. METHODS: A mathematical model was used to project the number of primary school teachers and their HIV status under current plans for teacher training and recruitment. Cost data were compiled from the MoE, the Teacher Education Department, teacher training colleges and the donor consortium BESSIP (Basic Education Sub-Sector Investment Programme). Multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The impact of HIV/AIDS on the supply of primary education imply costs to the MoE and BESSIP estimated at US$1.3-3.1 million in 1999, and projected at $10.6-41.3 million over the period 1999-2010. These costs include salaries paid to teachers absent as a result of HIV-associated illness (71%), additional training of teachers to cope with AIDS-related attrition (22%) and funeral costs contractually met by the MoE (7%). They do not include the additional costs of an active care and prevention response by the MoE, or the burden of ensuring enrolment of AIDS orphans. The annual cost of HIV/AIDS is a relatively small fraction of the overall MoE budget (2.5% in 1999) but has substantial implications for resource allocation to some functions. Expenditure on teacher training will need to increase by 26% if Education for All targets are to be met in the face of AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: HIV/AIDS has significant implications for resource allocation in the education sector in Zambia.