Modeling of Parkinson's Disease Progression and Implications for Detection of Disease Modification in Treatment Trials.

Background: Objectively measuring Parkinson's disease (PD) signs and symptoms over time is critical for the successful development of treatments aimed at halting the disease progression of people with PD. Objective: To create a clinical trial simulation tool that characterizes the natural history of PD progression and enables a data-driven design of randomized controlled studies testing potential disease-modifying treatments (DMT) in early-stage PD. Methods: Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were analyzed with nonlinear mixed-effect modeling techniques to characterize the progression of MDS-UPDRS part I (non-motor aspects of experiences of daily living), part II (motor aspects of experiences of daily living), and part III (motor signs). A clinical trial simulation tool was built from these disease models and used to predict probability of success as a function of trial design. Results: MDS-UPDRS part III progresses approximately 3 times faster than MDS-UPDRS part II and I, with an increase of 3 versus 1 points/year. Higher amounts of symptomatic therapy is associated with slower progression of MDS-UPDRS part II and III. The modeling framework predicts that a DMT effect on MDS-UPDRS part III could precede effect on part II by approximately 2 to 3 years. Conclusions: Our clinical trial simulation tool predicted that in a two-year randomized controlled trial, MDS-UPDRS part III could be used to evaluate a potential novel DMT, while part II would require longer trials of a minimum duration of 3 to 5 years underscoring the need for innovative trial design approaches including novel patient-centric measures.

To develop effective medicines that can slow down or stop the progression of Parkinson's disease (PD), it is important to accurately understand how the disease worsens over time. We used data from an observational study, led by the Michael J. Fox Foundation, called the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) to understand the natural progression of  PD. We simulated clinical trials on a computer using different scales to measure the progression of PD. We specifically looked at a physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, and at a patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II of how PD symptoms worsen over time. To measure the effect of a new medicine slowing down the progression of PD using patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II, we estimate that we may need to conduct a clinical trial of at least 3 to 5 years. On the other hand, to measure an effect using physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, the duration of the trial could be shorter than 2 years. We were also able to show that worsening recorded by the physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III could be predictive of a later worsening recorded by the patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II. We concluded that MDS-UPDRS part III may be a good endpoint for a clinical trial of a reasonable duration and that MDS-UPDRS part II could be measured in longer studies, for example, open-label extensions.

Population PK and Semimechanistic PK/PD Modeling and Simulation of Relugolix Effects on Testosterone Suppression in Men with Prostate Cancer.

Relugolix, the first orally active, nonpeptide gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor antagonist, is approved in the United States and the European Union for the treatment of adult patients with advanced prostate cancer. The recommended dosing regimen is a 360-mg loading dose followed by a 120-mg daily dose. Relugolix and testosterone concentration data and clinical information from two phase I studies, two phase II studies, and the phase III safety and efficacy study (HERO) were used to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model and a semimechanistic population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PopPK/PD) model that characterized relugolix exposure and its relationship to testosterone concentrations. Age, body weight, and Black/African American race had at most minimal effects on relugolix exposure or testosterone concentrations with no clinical relevance. Simulations using the PopPK/PD model confirmed the recommended dosing regimen of relugolix, with the median simulated testosterone concentrations predicted to achieve castration levels (< 50 ng/dL) and profound castration levels (< 20 ng/dL) by day 2 and day 9, respectively, and demonstrated that 97.3% and 85.5% of the patients remained at castration levels (< 50 ng/dL) upon temporary interruption of treatment for 7 days and 14 days, respectively. Collectively, simulations based on the PopPK and PopPK/PD models were consistent with actual data from clinical studies, reflecting the high predictiveness of the models and supporting the reliability of model-based simulations. These models can be used to provide guidance regarding dosing recommendations under various circumstances (e.g., temporary interruption of treatment, if needed) for relugolix.