Multimorbidity in South Africa: Is the health system ready?

Background: Multimorbidity is likely to be a significant contributor to ill health and inequality in South Africa and yet has been largely overlooked. Purpose: This paper focuses on the findings of a recent large study that highlighted emerging issues - namely (i) the high levels of multimorbidity among three key groups - older adults, women, and the wealthy; (ii) discordant and concordant disease clusters among the multimorbid. Research Design: Narrative. Study Sample and Data Collection: Not applicable. Results: We discuss the implications of each emerging issue for health systems policy and practice. Conclusion: Although key policies are identified, many of these policies are not implemented and are therefore not part of routine practice, leaving much space for improvement.

A systematic method for comparing multimorbidity in national surveys.

OBJECTIVE: Due to gaps in the literature, we developed a systematic method to assess multimorbidity using national surveys. The objectives of this study were thus to identify methods used to define and measure multimorbidity, to create a pre-defined list of disease conditions, to identify potential national surveys to include, to select disease conditions for each survey, and to analyse and compare the survey findings. RESULTS: We used the count method to define multimorbidity. We created a pre-defined list of disease conditions by examining international literature and using local data on the burden of disease. We assessed national surveys, reporting on more than one disease condition in people 15 years and older, for inclusion. For each survey, the prevalence of multimorbidity was calculated, the disease patterns among the multimorbid population were assessed using a latent class analysis and logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic and behavioural factors associated with multimorbidity. The prevalence of multimorbidity varied for each survey from 2.7 to 20.7%. We used a systematic and transparent method to interrogate multimorbidity in national surveys. While the prevalence in each survey differs, they collectively indicate that multimorbidity increases in older age groups and tends to be higher among women.

One in five South Africans are multimorbid: An analysis of the 2016 demographic and health survey.

Multimorbidity is a global research priority, yet relatively little is known about it in low and middle income countries. South Africa has the largest burden of HIV worldwide but also has a growing burden of non-communicable diseases; potentially leading to uncommon disease combinations. Information about the prevalence of multimorbidity and factors associated with it can assist in healthcare planning and targeting groups of people for interventions. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of multimorbidity by age and sex, as well as factors associated with multimorbidity in people 15 years and older. This study analyses the nationally representative 2016 South African Demographic Health Survey. The sample included 10 336 people who participated in the Adult Health questionnaire and approximately 7 961 people who provided biomarkers. Multivariate logistic regression was used to measure the association of multimorbidity with age, sex, living in an urban or rural area, education level, wealth level, employment status, body mass index, current alcohol or tobacco use. All analyses were conducted using STATA 15. Multimorbidity was present in 20.7% (95% CI: 19.5%- 21.9%) of participants; in 14.8% (95% CI: 13.4% - 16.3%) of males and 26.2% (95% CI: 24.7-27.7%) of females. Multimorbidity increased with age; with the highest odds in the 55-64 years old age group (OR: 24.910, 95% CI: 14.901-41.641, p < 0.001) compared to those aged 15-24 years. The odds of multimorbidity was also higher in young females compared to young males (OR: 2.734, 95% CI: 1.50-4.99, p = 0.001). Possessing tertiary education (OR: 0.722, 95% CI: 0.537-0.97, p = 0.031), being employed (OR: 0.813, 95% CI: 0.675-0.979, p = 0.029) or currently using alcohol (OR: 0.815, 95% CI: 0.686-0.968, p = 0.02) was protective against multimorbidity. Multimorbidity is prevalent within the South African population, with females and older adults being most affected. However, multimorbidity is also observed in younger adults and most likely driven by the high prevalence of HIV and hypertension.

Multimorbidity Patterns in a National HIV Survey of South African Youth and Adults.

Introduction: Information pertaining to multimorbidity is frequently informed by studies from high income countries and it is unclear how these findings relate to low and middle income countries, where the burden of infectious disease is high. South Africa has a quadruple burden of disease which includes a high HIV prevalence and a growing burden of non-communicable diseases. This study aimed to analyse the prevalence and patterns (disease classes or clusters) of multimorbidity in South Africa. Methods: A secondary analysis of individuals over the age of 15 years who participated in the Fifth South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behavior and Communication Survey, 2017 (SABSSM 2017) was done. Six disease conditions were identified in the analysis (cancer, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension/high blood pressure, tuberculosis, and HIV). Chi-square tests were used to test for the differences in disease prevalence by sex. Common disease patterns were identified using a latent class analysis. Results: The sample included 27,896 participants, of which 1,837 had comorbidity or multimorbidity. When taking population-weighting into account, multimorbidity was present in 5.9% (95% CI: 5.4-6.4) of the population The prevalence of multimorbidity tended to be higher among females and increased with age, reaching 21.9% in the oldest age group (70+). The analyses identified seven distinct disease classes in the population. The largest class was "Diabetes and Hypertension" (36.3%), followed by "HIV and Hypertension" (31.0%), and "Heart disease and Hypertension" (14.5%). The four smaller classes were: "HIV, Diabetes, and Heart disease" (6.9%), "TB and HIV" (6.3%), "Hypertension, TB, and Cancer" (2.8%), and "All diseases except HIV" (2.2%). Conclusion: As the South African population continues to age, the prevalence of multimorbidity is likely to increase which will further impact the health care system. The prevalence of multimorbidity in the population was relatively low but reached up to 20% in the oldest age groups. The largest disease cluster was the combination of diabetes and hypertension; followed by HIV and hypertension. The gains in improving adherence to antiretrovirals amongst treatment-experienced people living with HIV, should be expanded to include compliance with lifestyle/behavioral modifications to blood pressure and glucose control, as well as adherence to anti-hypertension and anti-diabetic medication. There is an urgent need to improve the early diagnosis and treatment of disease in the South African population.

Aging with HIV: Increased Risk of HIV Comorbidities in Older Adults.

With improved access to antiretroviral treatment (ART), adults with HIV live longer to reach older age. The number of older adults living with HIV is increasing steadily, giving rise to a new population of interest in HIV research and for invigorated considerations in health service delivery and policy. We analysed the profile of comorbidities in older people (50 years and older) living with HIV in South Africa. We conducted a secondary analysis of all individuals over 15 years who tested HIV positive in the Fifth South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey, 2017. We conducted multivariate logistic regression to determine the factors associated with having HIV comorbidity using Stata 15.0 software. We entered 3755 people living with HIV into the analysis, of whom 18.3% (n = 688) were 50 years or older. Older adults had four times greater odds (OR = 4.7 (3.1-7.0)) of having an HIV comorbidity compared to younger adults. Being female (OR = 1.6 (1.1-2.4)) and living in an urban area (OR = 2.6 (1.8-3.7)) increased the odds of HIV comorbidity. Older adults with HIV require comprehensive health care to deal with multimorbidity, to maximise the benefits gained by advances in HIV therapies.

Multimorbidity patterns in South Africa: A latent class analysis.

Introduction: South Africa has the largest burden of HIV worldwide and has a growing burden of non-communicable diseases; the combination of which may lead to diseases clustering in ways that are not seen in other regions. This study sought to identify common disease classes and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors associated with each disease class. Methods: Data were analyzed from the South African Demographic and Health Survey 2016. A latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted using nine disease conditions. Sociodemographic and behavioral factors associated with each disease cluster were explored. All analysis was conducted in Stata 15 and the LCA Stata plugin was used to conduct the latent class and regression analysis. Results: Multimorbid participants were included (n = 2 368). Four disease classes were identified: (1) HIV, Hypertension and Anemia (comprising 39.4% of the multimorbid population), (2) Anemia and Hypertension (23.7%), (3) Cardiovascular-related (19.9%) and (4) Diabetes and Hypertension (17.0%). Age, sex, and lifestyle risk factors were associated with class membership. In terms of age, with older adults were less likely to belong to the first class (HIV, Hypertension and Anemia). Males were more likely to belong to Class 2 (Anemia and Hypertension) and Class 4 (Diabetes and Hypertension). In terms of alcohol consumption, those that consumed alcohol were less likely to belong to Class 4 (Diabetes and Hypertension). Current smokers were more likely to belong to Class 3 (Cardiovascular-related). People with a higher body mass index tended to belong to Class 3 (Cardiovascular-related) or the Class 4 (Diabetes and Hypertension). Conclusion: This study affirmed that integrated care is urgently needed, evidenced by the largest disease class being an overlap of chronic infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases. This study also highlighted the need for hypertension to be addressed. Tackling the risk factors associated with hypertension could avert an epidemic of multimorbidity.

Prevalence of Anaemia, Iron Deficiency, and Iron Deficiency Anaemia in Women of Reproductive Age and Children under 5 Years of Age in South Africa (1997-2021): A Systematic Review.

Using a systematic review method, the prevalence of anaemia, iron deficiency (ID), and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) in women of reproductive age (WRA) and children under 5 years of age was obtained to inform priorities in health planning and policy in South Africa. We searched electronic databases for articles published between 1997 and 2021. A total of 713 articles were identified, of which 14 articles comprising 9649 WRA and 4085 children were included. Since most of the included studies were of low quality, we did not pool data in a meta-analysis due to heterogeneity (I2 > 75%). In WRA, anaemia prevalence ranged from 22.0% to 44.0%; ID from 7.7% and 19.0%; and IDA from 10.5% to 9.7%. The prevalence of anaemia in pregnancy was 29.0% to 42.7%; and 60.6% to 71.3% in HIV-infected pregnant women. Three national surveys reported anaemia in children at 28.9%, 10.7%, and 61.3%, respectively. Overall, among the children under 5 years old, anaemia was more prevalent in 1-year-olds (52.0%) compared to the other age groups. Between 2005 and 2012, ID increased by 3.8% and IDA decreased by 83.2% in children. Anaemia in WRA and children under 5 years in South Africa was a moderate public health concern. Therefore, interventions addressing anaemia should be intensified, and policies on iron supplementation and food fortification need to be revised and aligned to the WHO multiple micronutrient supplementation recommendations.

Bayesian modelling of population trends in alcohol consumption provides empirically based country estimates for South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use has widespread effects on health and contributes to over 200 detrimental conditions. Although the pattern of heavy episodic drinking independently increases the risk for injuries and transmission of some infectious diseases, long-term average consumption is the fundamental predictor of risk for most conditions. Population surveys, which are the main source of data on alcohol exposure, suffer from bias and uncertainty. This article proposes a novel triangulation method to reduce bias by rescaling consumption estimates by sex and age to match country-level consumption from administrative data. METHODS: We used data from 17 population surveys to estimate age- and sex-specific trends in alcohol consumption in the adult population of South Africa between 1998 and 2016. Independently for each survey, we calculated sex- and age-specific estimates of the prevalence of drinkers and the distribution of individuals across consumption categories. We used these aggregated results, together with data on alcohol production, sales and import/export, as inputs of a Bayesian model and generated yearly estimates of the prevalence of drinkers in the population and the parameters that characterise the distribution of the average consumption among drinkers. RESULTS: Among males, the prevalence of drinkers decreased between 1998 and 2009, from 56.2% (95% CI 53.7%; 58.7%) to 50.6% (49.3%; 52.0%), and increased afterwards to 53.9% (51.5%; 56.2%) in 2016. The average consumption from 52.1 g/day (49.1; 55.6) in 1998 to 42.8 g/day (40.0; 45.7) in 2016. Among females the prevalence of current drinkers rose from 19.0% (17.2%; 20.8%) in 1998 to 20.0% (18.3%; 21.7%) in 2016 while average consumption decreased from 32.7 g/day (30.2; 35.0) to 26.4 g/day (23.8; 28.9). CONCLUSIONS: The methodology provides a viable alternative to current approaches to reconcile survey estimates of individual alcohol consumption patterns with aggregate administrative data. It provides sex- and age-specific estimates of prevalence of drinkers and distribution of average daily consumption among drinkers in populations. Reliance on locally sourced data instead of global and regional trend estimates better reflects local nuances and is adaptable to the inclusion of additional data. This provides a powerful tool to monitor consumption, develop burden of disease estimates and inform and evaluate public health interventions.

Multimorbidity in South Africa: a systematic review of prevalence studies.

OBJECTIVES: To review prevalence studies of multimorbidity in South Africa to identify prevalence estimates, common disease clusters and factors associated with multimorbidity. DESIGN: Systematic review. SETTING: South Africa (general community and healthcare facilities). DATA SOURCES: Articles were retrieved from electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, Science Direct and JSTOR). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies addressing the prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa were eligible for inclusion. A systematic search was done in various databases up to December 2020. A risk of bias assessment was conducted for each article using a modified checklist. STUDY SELECTION: Two researchers independently screened titles and abstracts; assessed the risk of bias of each study and extracted data. Included studies were described using a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: In total, 1407 titles were retrieved; of which 10 articles were included in the narrative synthesis. Six studies had a low risk of bias and three had a moderate risk of bias. One study was not assessed for risk of bias, because there was no criteria that apply to routine health information systems. Three of the included studies were population-based surveys, four were community-based cohorts and three cross-sectional studies of health facility data. The prevalence of multimorbidity was low to moderate (3%-23%) in studies that included younger people or had a wide range of selected age groups; and moderate to high (30%-87%) in studies of older adults. The common disease clusters were hypertension and diabetes, hypertension and HIV, and TB and HIV. CONCLUSION: All studies indicated that multimorbidity is a norm in South Africa, especially among older adults. Hypertension is the main driver of multimorbidity. Research on multimorbidity in South Africa needs to be strengthened with high-quality study designs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020196895.

Prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Synthesis of existing prevalence data using rigorous systematic review methods is considered an effective strategy to generate representative and robust prevalence figures to inform health planning and policy. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify, collate, and synthesise all studies reporting the prevalence of total and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2DM), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in South Africa. Four databases, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and African Index Medicus were searched for articles published between January 1997 and June 2020. A total of 1886 articles were identified, of which 11 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence in individuals 25 years and older was 15.25% (11.07-19.95%) for T2DM, 9.59% (5.82-14.17%) for IGT, 3.55% (0.38-9.61%) for IFG, and 8.29% (4.97-12.34%) for newly diagnosed T2DM. Although our pooled estimate may be imprecise due to significant heterogeneity across studies with regard to population group, age, gender, setting, diagnostic test, and study design, we provide evidence that the burden of glucose intolerance in South Africa is high. These factors contribute to the paucity of representative T2DM prevalence data. There is a need for well-designed epidemiological studies that use best-practice and standardised methods to assess prevalence.

Can non-fatal burden estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study be used locally? An investigation using models of stroke and diabetes for South Africa.

Background: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) approach estimates disease burden by combining fatal (years of life lost) and non-fatal burden prevalence-based years of life lived with disability (PYLDs) estimates. Although South Africa has data to estimate mortality, prevalence data to estimate non-fatal burden are sparse. PYLD estimates from the GBD study for South Africa can potentially be used. However, there is a divergence in mortality estimates for South Africa between the second South African National Burden of Disease (SANBD2) and 2013 GBD studies. Objective: We investigated the feasibility of utilising GBD PYLD estimates for stroke and diabetes by exploring different disease modelling scenarios. Method: DisMod II software-generated South African stroke and diabetes PYLDs for 2010 from models using local epidemiological parameters and demographic data for people 20-79 years old. We investigated the impact on PYLD estimates of 1) differences in the cause-of-death envelope, 2) differences in the cause-specific mortality estimates (increase/decrease by 15% for stroke and 30% for diabetes), and 3) difference using local disease parameters compared to other country or region parameters. Differences were expressed as ratios, average ratios and ratio ranges. Results: Using the GBD cause-of-death envelope (16% more deaths than SANBD2) and holding other parameters constant yielded age-specific ratios of PYLDs for stroke and diabetes ranging between 0.89 and 1.07 (average 0.98) for males. Similar results were observed for females. A 15% change in age-specific stroke mortality showed little difference in the ratio comparison of PYLDs (range 0.98-1.02) while a 30% change in age-specific diabetes mortality resulted in a ratio range of 0.96-1.07 for PYLDs depending on age. Conclusion: This study showed that GBD non-fatal burden estimates (PYLDs) can be used for stroke and diabetes non-fatal burden in the SANBD2 study.

Prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity has increased globally over the past two decades, due to ageing populations and increased burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In a country like South Africa, with a growing burden of NCDs and a high prevalence of HIV, information on multimorbidity can improve planning for healthcare delivery and utilisation, and reduce costs in the context of constrained health resources. This review aims to synthesise prevalence studies on multimorbidity, and identify dominant clusters and trends of multimorbidity in South Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will search electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Scopus, JSTOR, POPLINE, PsycINFO, ScienceDirect, Web of Science and CINAHL), and the reference lists of included articles. Two researchers will independently screen title and abstracts, and then full text to identify studies published before and in 2020 that report on prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa. Risk of bias assessments will be done for each study. Information on the prevalence of multimorbidity and disease clusters will be extracted from each study. Where possible, prevalence of specific clusters of multimorbidity will be pooled using a random effects meta-analysis to account for variability between studies. The I2 statistic will be used to establish the extent of heterogeneity due to variation in prevalence estimates rather than due to chance. The systematic review will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Only published journal articles will be included in the systematic review. This review received ethics approval as part of a larger project by the University of the Western Cape Biomedical Science Research Ethics Committee (BM20/5/8). The findings from this research will be used to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa and will contribute to the design of future research projects. The findings will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal article. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020196895.

Almost 1 in 5 South African adults have chronic pain: a prevalence study conducted in a large nationally representative sample.

Limited information on the prevalence and risk factors for chronic pain is available for developing countries. Therefore, we investigated the prevalence of chronic pain and the association between this pain and various personal and sociodemographic factors by including questions in the South Africa Demographic and Household Survey 2016. The survey was conducted by face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of the adult population (ages 15 and older, n = 10,336). Chronic pain was defined as pain or discomfort that had been experienced all the time or on and off for 3 months or more. The prevalence of chronic pain was 18.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.0-19.7). Women were more likely than were men to have chronic pain (men = 15.8% [95% CI: 13.9-17.8]; woman = 20.1% [95% CI: 18.4-21.8]), and the prevalence of chronic pain increased from 11.3% (95% CI: 9.6-13.3) for the age range 15 to 24 years to 34.4% (95% CI: 30.6-38.4) for the age range over 65 years. The body sites affected most frequently were the limbs (43.6% [95% CI: 40.4-46.9]), followed by the back (30.5% [95% CI: 27.7-33.6]). This article presents the prevalence of chronic pain in the general population of a middle-income African country. These data give much needed insights into the burden of, and risk factors for, chronic pain in low-resource settings, and identify priority groups for intervention.

HIV research in South Africa: Advancing life.

South African (SA) researchers have made both national and global contributions to HIV prevention and treatment. Research conducted in SA has contributed markedly to improved survival in HIV-infected infants, children and adults. The translation of clinical research into practice has enabled the curtailment of paediatric HIV in SA. Along with international collaborators, SA has made pivotal contributions to biomedical prevention modalities including medical male circumcision and oral and topical microbicides, and is undertaking pivotal HIV vaccine research. Research into the structural and psychosocial drivers of HIV infection will be critical for sustaining biomedical interventions, and necessary to end AIDS.

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in South Africa: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a major source of morbidity and mortality in South Africa, spurred by increased urbanisation and unhealthy lifestyle factors. Local epidemiological data are required to inform health planning and policy. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify, collate and synthesise all studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes in South Africa. A secondary aim is to report the prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance and impaired fasting glucose, conditions which are associated with an increased risk of progression to overt diabetes, and the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Multiple databases will be searched for diabetes prevalence studies conducted in South Africa between 1997 and 2018. Two authors will independently select studies that meet the inclusion criteria, extract data and appraise studies using a risk of bias tool for prevalence studies. Studies with low or moderate risk of bias will be included. Sources of heterogeneity will be explored using subgroup analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The systematic review does not require ethics clearance since published studies with non-identifiable data will be used. This review will provide best estimates to inform the Second National Burden of Disease study which can guide health and policy planning. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017071280.

Availability and quality of routine morbidity data: review of studies in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Routine health information systems (RHISs) provide data that are vital for planning and monitoring individual health. Data from RHISs could also be used for purposes for which they were not originally intended, provided that the data are of sufficient quality. For example, morbidity data could be used to inform burden of disease estimations, which serve as important evidence to prioritize interventions and promote health. The objective of this study was to identify and assess published quantitative assessments of data quality related to patient morbidity in RHISs in use in South Africa. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a review of literature published between 1994 and 2014 that assessed the quality of data in RHISs in South Africa. World Health Organization (WHO) data quality components were used as the assessment criteria. RESULTS: Of 420 references identified, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria. The studies were limited to tuberculosis and HIV. No study reported more than 3 WHO data quality components or provided a quantitative assessment of quality that could be used for burden of disease estimation. DISCUSSION: The included studies had limited geographical focus and evaluated different source data at different levels of the information system. All studies reported poor data quality. CONCLUSION: This review confirmed concerns about the quality of data in RHISs, and highlighted the need for a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of patient-level morbidity data in RHISs in South Africa.

Epidemiology of lower respiratory infection and pneumonia in South Africa (1997-2015): a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and pneumonia are among the leading causes of death worldwide, especially in children aged under 5 years, and these patterns are reflected in the South African population. Local epidemiological data for LRIs and pneumonia are required to inform the Second National Burden of Disease Study underway in South Africa. The aim of this systematic review is to identify published studies reporting the prevalence, incidence, case fatality, duration or severity of LRI and pneumonia in adults and children in South Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Electronic database searches will be conducted to obtain studies reporting on the prevalence, incidence, case fatality, duration and severity of LRI and pneumonia in South Africa between January 1997 and December 2015. Studies that are assessed to have moderate or low risk of bias will be included in a meta-analysis, if appropriate. Where meta-analysis is not possible, the articles will be described narratively. Subgroup analysis (eg, age groups) will also be conducted where enough information is available. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systematic review will only include published data with no linked patient-level information; thus, no ethics approval is required. The findings will be used to calculate the burden of disease attributed to LRI and pneumonia in South Africa and will highlight the type of epidemiological data available in the country. The article will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed publication. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016036520.

Mortality trends and differentials in South Africa from 1997 to 2012: second National Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: The poor health of South Africans is known to be associated with a quadruple disease burden. In the second National Burden of Disease (NBD) study, we aimed to analyse cause of death data for 1997-2012 and develop national, population group, and provincial estimates of the levels and causes of mortality. METHOD: We used underlying cause of death data from death notifications for 1997-2012 obtained from Statistics South Africa. These data were adjusted for completeness using indirect demographic techniques for adults and comparison with survey and census estimates for child mortality. A regression approach was used to estimate misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths and so-called garbage codes were proportionally redistributed by age, sex, and population group population group (black African, Indian or Asian descent, white [European descent], and coloured [of mixed ancestry according to the preceding categories]). Injury deaths were estimated from additional data sources. Age-standardised death rates were calculated with mid-year population estimates and the WHO age standard. Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (IHME GBD) estimates for South Africa were obtained from the IHME GHDx website for comparison. FINDINGS: All-cause age-standardised death rates increased rapidly since 1997, peaked in 2006 and then declined, driven by changes in HIV/AIDS. Mortality from tuberculosis, non-communicable diseases, and injuries decreased slightly. In 2012, HIV/AIDS caused the most deaths (29·1%) followed by cerebrovascular disease (7·5%) and lower respiratory infections (4·9%). All-cause age-standardised death rates were 1·7 times higher in the province with the highest death rate compared to the province with the lowest death rate, 2·2 times higher in black Africans compared to whites, and 1·4 times higher in males compared with females. Comparison with the IHME GBD estimates for South Africa revealed substantial differences for estimated deaths from all causes, particularly HIV/AIDS and interpersonal violence. INTERPRETATION: This study shows the reversal of HIV/AIDS, non-communicable disease, and injury mortality trends in South Africa during the study period. Mortality differentials show the importance of social determinants, raise concerns about the quality of health services, and provide relevant information to policy makers for addressing inequalities. Differences between GBD estimates for South Africa and this study emphasise the need for more careful calibration of global models with local data. FUNDING: South African Medical Research Council's Flagships Awards Project.

Epidemiology of major depressive disorder in South Africa (1997-2015): a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of disease and disability globally and in South Africa. Epidemiological data for MDD are essential to estimate the overall disease burden in a country. The objective of the systematic review is to examine the evidence base for prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, severity, case fatality and excess mortality of MDD in South Africa from 1997 to 2015. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform electronic searches in PubMed, PsycINFO, Scopus and other bibliographical databases. Articles published between January 1997 and December 2015 will be eligible for inclusion in this review. The primary outcomes will be prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, severity, case fatality and excess mortality of MDD. The secondary outcomes will be risk factors and selected populations for MDD. If appropriate, a meta-analysis will be performed. If a meta-analysis is not possible, the review findings will be presented narratively and in tables. Subgroup analyses will be conducted with subgroups defined by population group, rural/urban settings and study designs, if sufficient data are available. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The systematic review will use published data that are not linked to individuals. The review findings may have implications for future research prioritisation and disease modelling of MDD to estimate its morbidity burden in South Africa, and will be disseminated electronically and in print through peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) CRD42015024885.