Population screening for cirrhosis.

In response to the growing health crisis of liver-related morbidity and mortality, screening for liver cirrhosis has emerged as a promising strategy for early detection and timely intervention. By identifying individuals with severe fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis, screening holds the promise of enhancing treatment outcomes, delaying disease progression, and ultimately improving the quality of life of affected individuals. Clinical practice guidelines from international scientific societies currently recommend targeted screening strategies, investigating high-risk populations with known risk factors of liver disease. While there is good evidence that screening increases case finding in the population, and a growing number of studies indicate that screening may motivate beneficial lifestyle changes in patients with steatotic liver disease, there are major gaps in knowledge in need of clarification before screening programs of cirrhosis are implemented. Foremost, randomized trials are needed to ensure that screening leads to improved liver-related morbidity and mortality. If not, screening for cirrhosis could be unethical due to overdiagnosis, overtreatment, increased health care costs, negative psychological consequences of screening, and futile invasive investigations. Moreover, the tests used for screening need to be optimized toward lower false positive rates than the currently used FIB-4 while retaining few false negatives. Finally, barriers to adherence to screening and implementation of screening programs need to be elucidated. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the current landscape of screening strategies for liver cirrhosis and the promises and pitfalls of current methods for early cirrhosis detection.

Binge drinking at time of bariatric surgery is associated with liver disease, suicides, and increases long-term mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol use disorder has been reported in patients undergoing bariatric procedures, but the pattern of alcohol consumption has not been evaluated. We investigated the prevalence, risk factors, and impact of binge drinking (BD) at the time of surgery and during follow-up. METHODS: A prospective, longitudinal study of subjects undergoing bariatric surgery was included in the LABS-2 registry between 2006 and 2009. Participants with AUDIT questionnaire at the time of surgery and a minimum of 12 months follow-up were included. BD was defined as consuming ≥5 drinks on at least 1 occasion in the previous month. Liver biopsies were obtained during bariatric procedures in not all cases. Survival analysis was performed with the adjusted Cox regression model and competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 2257 subjects were included, with a median follow-up of 79 months. The prevalence of BD at time of surgery was 12%, and it raised up to 23% during follow-up. Patients with BD predominantly had a binge eating disorder (OR=1.35 [95% CI: 1.04-1.76]), regularly consumed fast food [OR=1.4 (95% CI: 1.07-1.85)] and used other drugs (OR=2.65 [95% CI: 1.74-4.04]). Within liver biopsies evaluation, BD showed higher hepatic iron deposits (OR=3.00 [95% CI: 1.25-7.21]). BD at the time of surgery was associated with a higher risk of BD during follow-up (OR=10.49 [95% CI: 7.86-14.00]) and long-term mortality (HR: 3.21 [95% CI: 1.67-6.18]). Specific causes of death in these patients with BD were liver disease (p=0.020), suicide (p=0.015), neoplasms (p=0.034), and respiratory (p=0.025). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of BD in patients undergoing bariatric surgery is high and increases the risk of postoperative liver disease, suicides, and long-term mortality.

Renal Complications in Portal Hypertension.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication among patients with decompensated cirrhosis and its development is associated with worse prognosis in terms of survival. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis may develop a unique type of AKI, known as hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI), characterized by marked impairment of kidney function due to haemodynamic changes that occur in late stages of liver cirrhosis. Besides, patients with cirrhosis also may develop chronic alterations of kidney function (chronic kidney disease, CKD), the incidence of which is increasing markedly and may be associated with clinical complications. The aim of this review is to provide the reader with an update of the most relevant aspects of alterations of kidney function in patients with cirrhossi that may be useful for theri clinical practice.

Multiplatform web app (My Way Up) plus motivational interviewing for improving treatment retention in patients with onset of alcohol-related liver disease and alcohol use disorder - an example of participatory research.

Background: With the aim of improving treatment retention in patients with the onset of alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD), we designed a blended intervention (brief motivational intervention + 'serious game' (SG)). We present the participatory design methodology and outcomes and the usability assessment of the intervention. Methods: (1) The design of the SG was based on the outcomes of two 3-h co-creation sessions with 37 participants (healthcare and technology professionals, patients, and patients' relatives). The brief face-to-face motivational intervention was based on the 5 As Model and adapted to the ArLD population. (2) Usability pilot study: 20 participants (10 ArLD patients + 10 healthcare professionals) received the intervention. System Usability Scale (SUS) and Post-Study System Usability Questionnaire (PSSUQ) were applied to assess the SG usability and patients' satisfaction with it. Weekly semi-structured interviews on the phone were conducted to identify the preferred elements in the SG and those aspects that should be improved. Results: (1) Design: an SG in the form of a gamified web app, consisting of a daily activity for six weeks and adapted brief motivational interviewing. (2) Usability pilot study: usability results were excellent for both patients and healthcare professionals (SUS median score = 85). The general usability, the quality of the information provided by the SG and the quality of the interface were very positively rated in the PSSUQ (overall median score = 2, IQR = 1-2). The best-rated aspects were the provision of feedback, the use of metaphors and the application of audiovisual material. Changes in the design, response mechanics and content were applied after the study. Conclusions: The usability and acceptability of an intervention for increasing retention to treatment in patients with recent onset of ArLD and AUD were excellent for patients and healthcare professionals. A randomized-controlled trial is required to test the efficacy of this approach.

Prospective validation of the EASL management algorithm for acute kidney injury in cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The management of acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhosis is challenging. The EASL guidelines proposed an algorithm for the management of AKI, but this has never been validated. We aimed to prospectively evaluate this algorithm in clinical practice. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study in consecutive hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and AKI. The EASL management algorithm includes identification/treatment of precipitating factors, 2-day albumin infusion in patients with AKI ≥stage 1B, and treatment with terlipressin in patients with hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI). The primary outcome was treatment response, which included both full and partial response. Secondary outcomes were survival and adverse events associated with terlipressin therapy. RESULTS: A total of 202 AKI episodes in 139 patients were included. Overall treatment response was 80%, while renal replacement therapy was required in only 8%. Response to albumin infusion was achieved in one-third of episodes. Of patients not responding to albumin, most (74%) did not meet the diagnostic criteria of HRS-AKI, with acute tubular necrosis (ATN) being the most common phenotype. The response rate in patients not meeting the criteria for HRS-AKI was 70%. Only 30 patients met the diagnostic criteria for HRS-AKI, and their response rate to terlipressin was 61%. Median time from AKI diagnosis to terlipressin initiation was only 2.5 days. While uNGAL (urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin) could differentiate ATN from other phenotypes (AUROC 0.78), it did not predict response to therapy in HRS-AKI. Ninety-day transplant-free survival was negatively associated with MELD-Na, ATN and HRS-AKI as well as uNGAL. Three patients treated with terlipressin developed pulmonary edema. CONCLUSIONS: The application of the EASL AKI algorithm is associated with very good response rates and does not significantly delay initiation of terlipressin therapy. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with cirrhosis is associated with poor short-term mortality. Improving its rapid identification and prompt management was the focus of the recently proposed EASL AKI algorithm. This is the first prospective study demonstrating that high AKI response rates are achieved with the use of this algorithm, which includes identification of AKI, treatment of precipitating factors, a 2-day albumin challenge in patients with AKI ≥1B, and supportive therapy in patients with persistent AKI not meeting HRS-AKI criteria or terlipressin with albumin in those with HRS-AKI. These findings support the use of this algorithm in clinical practice.

Recurrent alcohol-associated hepatitis is common and is associated with increased mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol relapse after surviving an episode of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is common. However, the clinical features, risk factors, and prognostic implications of recurrent alcohol-associated hepatitis (RAH) are not well described. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A registry-based study was done of patients admitted to 28 Spanish hospitals for an episode of AH between 2014 and 2021. Baseline demographics and laboratory variables were collected. Risk factors for RAH were investigated using Cox regression analysis. We analyzed the severity of the index episodes of AH and compared it to that of RAH. Long-term survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. A total of 1118 patients were included in the analysis, 125 (11%) of whom developed RAH during follow-up (median: 17 [7-36] months). The incidence of RAH in patients resuming alcohol use was 22%. The median time to recurrence was 14 (8-29) months. Patients with RAH had more psychiatric comorbidities. Risk factors for developing RAH included age <50 years, alcohol use >10 U/d, and history of liver decompensation. RAH was clinically more severe compared to the first AH (higher MELD, more frequent ACLF, and HE). Moreover, alcohol abstinence during follow-up was less common after RAH (18% vs. 45%, p <0.001). Most importantly, long-term mortality was higher in patients who developed RAH (39% vs. 21%, p = 0.026), and presenting with RAH independently predicted high mortality (HR: 1.55 [1.11-2.18]). CONCLUSIONS: RAH is common and has a more aggressive clinical course, including increased mortality. Patients surviving an episode of AH should undergo intense alcohol use disorder therapy to prevent RAH.

Surgical Treatment of Persistent Pseudomonas aeruginosa Bacteraemia After n-Butyl-2-cyanoacrylate for Gastric Bleeding Varices.

n-Butyl-2-cyanoacrylate (NCBA) is an effective therapeutic option for bleeding gastric varices but can sometimes be associated with adverse effects. Persistent bacteraemia is an unusual complication with a high mortality rate. We report the case of a 34-year-old man with history of cirrhosis due to Wilson's disease and severe portal hypertension who was hospitalized as a result of upper gastrointestinal bleeding secondary to fundic varices that were treated with NCBA. Eight weeks after the bleeding episode he was readmitted with a 14-day history of fever and chills. Pseudomonas aeruginosa was isolated from blood cultures. He presented with persistent P. aeruginosa bacteraemia despite correct antibiotic treatment. A PET-CT scan was performed to rule out infection source, and inflammatory changes at the NCBA site plug were found. A presumptive diagnosis of NCBA plug infection was considered. The case was evaluated by multidisciplinary board and indicated liver transplantation as treatment. However, the patient's bacteraemia persisted and therefore a vertical gastrectomy to remove the NCBA plug was performed. P. aeruginosa was also isolated from the plug. The patient was discharged with ceftazidime plus ciprofloxacin to complete 6 weeks after surgery and he remained asymptomatic. Any foreign material such as NCBA is susceptible to being infected and should be considered in patients with persistent breakthrough bloodstream infections. The individualized treatment is recommended in this complex scenario.

Hepatorenal Syndrome in Cirrhosis.

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a form of kidney dysfunction that characteristically occurs in liver cirrhosis. It is characterized by a marked impairment of kidney function in response to circulatory and hemodynamic alterations that occur in advanced stages of liver cirrhosis, aggravated by systemic inflammation and bacterial translocation. The classical definitions of the types of HRS have been recently revisited and 2 forms of HRS have been redefined: the acute form, referred to as acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI), and the chronic form, referred to as chronic kidney disease. HRS-AKI is one of the most severe forms of AKI in patients with cirrhosis and it consists of an abrupt impairment of kidney function, frequently triggered by an infection, appearing in the setting of advanced decompensated cirrhosis. Differential diagnosis with other causes of AKI is crucial because HRS-AKI requires a specific treatment. Differential diagnosis with AKI-acute tubular necrosis may be challenging and kidney biomarkers may be useful in this setting. Treatment of HRS-AKI is based on the administration of vasoconstrictor drugs in combination with volume expansion with albumin. Prognosis of HRS-AKI is poor, and the ideal definitive treatment consists of liver transplantation or simultaneous liver-kidney transplantation. HRS-AKI has a big impact on patients' quality of life. Management of HRS-AKI remains challenging in specific situations such as alcohol-associated hepatitis or metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease cirrhosis. Developing preventive measures for HRS-AKI, improving its early identification, discovering new biomarkers for differential diagnosis, and improving the response to therapy are some of the unmet needs in the field of HRS-AKI.

Medications for alcohol use disorder promote abstinence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis: Results from a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The role of medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) in patients with cirrhosis is not well established. Evidence on the efficacy and safety of these drugs in these patients is scarce. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocol guidelines on the efficacy of MAUD in patients with cirrhosis. A search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and Scopus, including all studies until May 2022. The population was defined as patients with AUD and cirrhosis. The primary outcome was alcohol abstinence. Safety was a secondary outcome. We performed a random-effect analysis and expressed the results as relative risk of alcohol consumption. Heterogeneity was measured by I2 . Out of 4095 unique references, 8 studies on 4 different AUD treatments [baclofen (n = 6), metadoxine (n = 1), acamprosate (n = 1), and fecal microbiota transplant (n = 1)] in a total of 794 patients were included. Four were cohort studies, and 4 were RCTs. Only RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. MAUD was associated with a reduced rate of alcohol consumption [relative risk = 0.68 (CI: 0.48-0.97), P = 0.03], increasing alcohol abstinence by 32% compared to placebo or standard treatment, despite high heterogeneity ( I2 = 67%). Regarding safety, out of 165 serious adverse events in patients treated with MAUD, only 5 (3%) were possibly or probably related to study medications. CONCLUSION: MAUD in patients with cirrhosis is effective in promoting alcohol abstinence and has a good safety profile. Larger studies on the effects of MAUD are needed, especially in patients with advanced liver disease.

Alcohol-associated liver disease: Epidemiology and management.

Alcohol is the leading cause of preventable liver morbidity and mortality worldwide, as it is also the most frequent cause of advanced liver disease. Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) covers different phenotypes ranging from steatosis to the development of inflammation (steatohepatitis), fibrosis and ultimately, in a proportion of patients, the development of liver cirrhosis and its associated complications. ALD has a complex pathogenesis that includes the interplay of both genetic and environmental factors, yet the precise mechanisms are largely unknown. Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a severe clinical presentation of ALD, which is characterized by abrupt jaundice and clinical decompensations of liver disease. AH occurs in a percentage of patients with underlying ALD and active alcohol consumption. Currently, there are no approved targeted therapies able to interfere in the pathogenesis of ALD and halt the progression of the disease, therefore alcohol abstinence is the most effective measure to improve prognosis in this patient population. In this regard, alcohol cessation remains the first-line treatment in all stages of alcohol disease. In patients with advanced ALD nonresponding to medical therapy, liver transplantation is the only approach that improves prognosis, and it should be considered in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. In the last years, AH has emerged as a new indication of early liver transplantation in non-responders to medical therapy, with promising results in highly selected patients. In this review, we provide an update on the epidemiology, risk factors, natural history, diagnosis, pathogenesis, and current treatments for ALD, taking into account the importance of assessing and managing alcohol consumption as the etiological factor and the main driver of prognosis in patients with ALD.

Alcoholic Foamy Degeneration, an Entity Resembling Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Molecular Profiling.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcoholic foamy degeneration (AFD) is a condition with similar clinical presentation to alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), but with a specific histologic pattern. Information regarding the prevalence and prognosis of AFD is scarce and there are no tools for a noninvasive diagnosis. METHODS: A cohort of patients admitted to the Hospital Clinic of Barcelona for clinical suspicion of AH who underwent liver biopsy was included. Patients were classified as AFD, AH, or other findings, according to histology. Clinical features, histology, and genetic expression of liver biopsy specimens were analyzed. The accuracy of National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria and laboratory parameters for differential diagnosis were investigated. RESULTS: Of 230 patients with a suspicion of AH, 18 (8%) met histologic criteria for AFD, 184 (80%) had definite AH, and 28 (12%) had other findings. In patients with AFD, massive steatosis was more frequent and the fibrosis stage was lower. AFD was characterized by down-regulation of liver fibrosis and inflammation genes and up-regulation of lipid metabolism and mitochondrial function genes. Patients with AFD had markedly better long-term survival (100% vs 57% in AFD vs AH; P = .002) despite not receiving corticosteroid treatment, even in a model for end-stage liver disease-matched sensitivity analysis. Serum triglyceride levels had an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.886 (95% CI, 0.807-0.964) for the diagnosis of AFD, whereas the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria performed poorly. A 1-step algorithm using triglyceride levels of 225 mg/dL (sensitivity, 0.77; specificity, 0.90; and Youden index, 0.67) is proposed for differential diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: AFD in the setting of suspicion of AH is not uncommon. A differential diagnosis is important because prognosis and treatment differ largely. Triglyceride levels successfully identify most patients with AFD and may be helpful in decision making.

Immune responses and clinical outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with liver disease and liver transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Comparative assessments of immunogenicity following different COVID-19 vaccines in patients with distinct liver diseases are lacking. SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell and antibody responses were evaluated longitudinally after one to three vaccine doses, with long-term follow-up for COVID-19-related clinical outcomes. METHODS: A total of 849 participants (355 with cirrhosis, 74 with autoimmune hepatitis [AIH], 36 with vascular liver disease [VLD], 257 liver transplant recipients [LTRs] and 127 healthy controls [HCs]) were recruited from four countries. Standardised immune assays were performed pre and post three vaccine doses (V1-3). RESULTS: In the total cohort, there were incremental increases in antibody titres after each vaccine dose (p <0.0001). Factors associated with reduced antibody responses were age and LT, whereas heterologous vaccination, prior COVID-19 and mRNA platforms were associated with greater responses. Although antibody titres decreased between post-V2 and pre-V3 (p = 0.012), patients with AIH, VLD, and cirrhosis had equivalent antibody responses to HCs post-V3. LTRs had lower and more heterogenous antibody titres than other groups, including post-V3 where 9% had no detectable antibodies; this was heavily influenced by intensity of immunosuppression. Vaccination increased T-cell IFNγ responses in all groups except LTRs. Patients with liver disease had lower functional antibody responses against nine Omicron subvariants and reduced T-cell responses to Omicron BA.1-specific peptides compared to wild-type. 122 cases of breakthrough COVID-19 were reported of which 5/122 (4%) were severe. Of the severe cases, 4/5 (80%) occurred in LTRs and 2/5 (40%) had no serological response post-V2. CONCLUSION: After three COVID-19 vaccines, patients with liver disease generally develop robust antibody and T-cell responses to vaccination and have mild COVID-19. However, LTRs have sustained no/low antibody titres and appear most vulnerable to severe disease. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Standardised assessments of the immune response to different COVID-19 vaccines in patients with liver disease are lacking. We performed antibody and T-cell assays at multiple timepoints following up to three vaccine doses in a large cohort of patients with a range of liver conditions. Overall, the three most widely available vaccine platforms were immunogenic and appeared to protect against severe breakthrough COVID-19. This will provide reassurance to patients with chronic liver disease who were deemed at high risk of severe COVID-19 during the pre-vaccination era, however, liver transplant recipients had the lowest antibody titres and remained vulnerable to severe breakthrough infection. We also characterise the immune response to multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants and describe the interaction between disease type, severity, and vaccine platform. These insights may prove useful in the event of future viral infections which also require rapid vaccine development and delivery to patients with liver disease.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not. RESULTS: Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Therapeutic targeting of adipose tissue macrophages ameliorates liver fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Background & Aims: : The accumulation of adipose tissue macrophages (ATMs) in obesity has been associated with hepatic injury. However, the contribution of ATMs to hepatic fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains to be elucidated. Herein, we investigate the relationship between ATMs and liver fibrosis in patients with patients with NAFLD and evaluate the impact of modulation of ATMs over hepatic fibrosis in an experimental non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) model. Methods: Adipose tissue and liver biopsies from 42 patients with NAFLD with different fibrosis stages were collected. ATMs were characterised by immunohistochemistry and flow cytometry and the correlation between ATMs and liver fibrosis stages was assessed. Selective modulation of the ATM phenotype was achieved by i.p. administration of dextran coupled with dexamethasone in diet-induced obesity and NASH murine models. Chronic administration effects were evaluated by histology and gene expression analysis in adipose tissue and liver samples. In vitro crosstalk between human ATMs and hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) and liver spheroids was performed. Results: Patients with NAFLD presented an increased accumulation of pro-inflammatory ATMs that correlated with hepatic fibrosis. Long-term modulation of ATMs significantly reduced pro-inflammatory phenotype and ameliorated adipose tissue inflammation. Moreover, ATMs modulation was associated with an improvement in steatosis and hepatic inflammation and significantly reduced fibrosis progression in an experimental NASH model. In vitro, the reduction of the pro-inflammatory phenotype of human ATMs with dextran-dexamethasone treatment reduced the secretion of inflammatory chemokines and directly attenuated the pro-fibrogenic response in HSCs and liver spheroids. Conclusions: Pro-inflammatory ATMs increase in parallel with fibrosis degree in patients with NAFLD and their modulation in an experimental NASH model improves liver fibrosis, uncovering the potential of ATMs as a therapeutic target to mitigate liver fibrosis in NAFLD. Impact and implications: We report that human adipose tissue pro-inflammatory macrophages correlate with hepatic fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Furthermore, the modulation of adipose tissue macrophages (ATMs) by dextran-nanocarrier conjugated with dexamethasone shifts the pro-inflammatory phenotype of ATMs to an anti-inflammatory phenotype in an experimental murine model of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. This shift ameliorates adipose tissue inflammation, hepatic inflammation, and fibrosis. Our results highlight the relevance of adipose tissue in NAFLD pathophysiology and unveil ATMs as a potential target for NAFLD.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).