Comprehensive conservation assessments reveal high extinction risks across Atlantic Forest trees.

Biodiversity is declining globally, yet many biodiversity hotspots still lack comprehensive species conservation assessments. Using multiple International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria to evaluate extinction risks and millions of herbarium and forest inventory records, we present automated conservation assessments for all tree species of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot, including ~1100 heretofore unassessed species. About 65% of all species and 82% of endemic species are classified as threatened. We rediscovered five species classified as Extinct on the IUCN Red List and identified 13 endemics as possibly extinct. Uncertainties in species information had little influence on the assessments, but using fewer Red List criteria severely underestimated threat levels. We suggest that the conservation status of tropical forests worldwide is worse than previously reported.

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities.

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

A pragmatic approach for producing theoretical syntheses in ecology.

It has been proposed that ecological theory develops in a pragmatic way. This implies that ecologists are free to decide what, from the knowledge available to them, they will use to build models and learn about phenomena. Because in fields that develop pragmatically knowledge generation is based on the decisions of individuals and not on a set of predefined axioms, the best way to produce theoretical synthesis in such fields is to assess what individuals are using to support scientific studies. Here, we present an approach for producing theoretical syntheses based on the propositions most frequently used to learn about a defined phenomenon. The approach consists of (i) defining a phenomenon of interest; (ii) defining a collective of scientists studying the phenomenon; (iii) surveying the scientific studies about the phenomenon published by this collective; (iv) identifying the most referred publications used in these studies; (v) identifying how the studies use the most referred publications to give support to their studies and learn about the phenomena; (vi) and from this, identifying general propositions on how the phenomenon is approached, viewed and described by the collective. We implemented the approach in a case study on the phenomenon of ecological succession, defining the collective as the scientists currently studying succession. We identified three propositions that synthesize the views of the defined collective about succession. The theoretical synthesis revealed that there is no clear division between "classical'' and "contemporary'' succession models, and that neutral models are being used to explain successional patterns alongside models based on niche assumptions. By implementing the pragmatic approach in a case study, we show that it can be successfully used to produce syntheses based on the actual activity of the scientific community studying the phenomenon. The connection between the resulting synthesis and research activity can be traced back through the methodological steps of the approach. This result can be used to understand how knowledge is being used in a field of study and can guide better informed decisions for future studies.

The erosion of biodiversity and biomass in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot.

Tropical forests are being deforested worldwide, and the remaining fragments are suffering from biomass and biodiversity erosion. Quantifying this erosion is challenging because ground data on tropical biodiversity and biomass are often sparse. Here, we use an unprecedented dataset of 1819 field surveys covering the entire Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We show that 83-85% of the surveys presented losses in forest biomass and tree species richness, functional traits, and conservation value. On average, forest fragments have 25-32% less biomass, 23-31% fewer species, and 33, 36, and 42% fewer individuals of late-successional, large-seeded, and endemic species, respectively. Biodiversity and biomass erosion are lower inside strictly protected conservation units, particularly in large ones. We estimate that biomass erosion across the Atlantic Forest remnants is equivalent to the loss of 55-70 thousand km2 of forests or US$2.3-2.6 billion in carbon credits. These figures have direct implications on mechanisms of climate change mitigation.

Disentangling the effects of sampling scale and size on the shape of species abundance distributions.

Many authors have tried to explain the shape of the species abundance distribution (SAD). Some of them have suggested that sampling spatial scale is an important factor shaping SADs. These suggestions, however, did not consider the indirect and well-known effect of sample size, which increases as samples are combined to generate SADs at larger spatial scales. Here, we separate the effects of sample size and sampling scale on the shape of the SAD for three groups of organisms (trees, beetles and birds) sampled in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We compared the observed SADs at different sampling scales with simulated SADs having the same richness, relative abundances but comparable sample sizes, to show that the main effect shaping SADs is sample size and not sampling spatial scale. The effect of scale was minor and deviations between observed and simulated SADs were present only for beetles. For trees, the match between observed and simulated SADs was improved at all spatial scales when we accounted for conspecific aggregation, which was even more important than the sampling scale effect. We build on these results to propose a conceptual framework where observed SADs are shaped by three main factors, in decreasing order of importance: sample size, conspecific aggregation and beta diversity. Therefore, studies comparing SADs across sites or scales should use sampling and/or statistical approaches capable of disentangling these three effects on the shape of SADs.

Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora.

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

Estimating interaction credit for trophic rewilding in tropical forests.

Trophic rewilding has been suggested as a restoration tool to restore ecological interactions and reverse defaunation and its cascading effects on ecosystem functioning. One of the ecological processes that has been jeopardized by defaunation is animal-mediated seed dispersal. Here, we propose an approach that combines joint species distribution models with occurrence data and species interaction records to quantify the potential to restore seed-dispersal interactions through rewilding and apply it to the Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. Using this approach, we identify areas that should benefit the most from trophic rewilding and candidate species that could contribute to cash the credit of seed-dispersal interactions in a given site. We found that sites within large fragments bearing a great diversity of trees may have about 20 times as many interactions to be cashed through rewilding as small fragments in regions where deforestation has been pervasive. We also ranked mammal and bird species according to their potential to restore seed-dispersal interactions if reintroduced while considering the biome as a whole and at finer scales. The suggested approach can aid future conservation efforts in rewilding projects in defaunated tropical rainforests.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

An integrated framework to improve the concept of resource specialisation.

Resource specialisation, although a fundamental component of ecological theory, is employed in disparate ways. Most definitions derive from simple counts of resource species. We build on recent advances in ecophylogenetics and null model analysis to propose a concept of specialisation that comprises affinities among resources as well as their co-occurrence with consumers. In the distance-based specialisation index (DSI), specialisation is measured as relatedness (phylogenetic or otherwise) of resources, scaled by the null expectation of random use of locally available resources. Thus, specialists use significantly clustered sets of resources, whereas generalists use over-dispersed resources. Intermediate species are classed as indiscriminate consumers. The effectiveness of this approach was assessed with differentially restricted null models, applied to a data set of 168 herbivorous insect species and their hosts. Incorporation of plant relatedness and relative abundance greatly improved specialisation measures compared to taxon counts or simpler null models, which overestimate the fraction of specialists, a problem compounded by insufficient sampling effort. This framework disambiguates the concept of specialisation with an explicit measure applicable to any mode of affinity among resource classes, and is also linked to ecological and evolutionary processes. This will enable a more rigorous deployment of ecological specialisation in empirical and theoretical studies.

Do food web models reproduce the structure of mutualistic networks?

BACKGROUND: Simple models inspired by processes shaping consumer-resource interactions have helped to establish the primary processes underlying the organization of food webs, networks of trophic interactions among species. Because other ecological interactions such as mutualisms between plants and their pollinators and seed dispersers are inherently based in consumer-resource relationships we hypothesize that processes shaping food webs should organize mutualistic relationships as well. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a likelihood-based model selection approach to compare the performance of food web models and that of a model designed for mutualisms, in reproducing the structure of networks depicting mutualistic relationships. Our results show that these food web models are able to reproduce the structure of most of the mutualistic networks and even the simplest among the food web models, the cascade model, often reproduce overall structural properties of real mutualistic networks. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on our results we hypothesize that processes leading to feeding hierarchy, which is a characteristic shared by all food web models, might be a fundamental aspect in the assembly of mutualisms. These findings suggest that similar underlying ecological processes might be important in organizing different types of interactions.

Phytophagous insect fauna tracks host plant responses to exotic grass invasion.

The high dependence of herbivorous insects on their host plants implies that plant invaders can affect these insects directly, by not providing a suitable habitat, or indirectly, by altering host plant availability. In this study, we sampled Asteraceae flower heads in cerrado remnants with varying levels of exotic grass invasion to evaluate whether invasive grasses have a direct effect on herbivore richness independent of the current disturbance level and host plant richness. By classifying herbivores according to the degree of host plant specialization, we also investigated whether invasive grasses reduce the uniqueness of the herbivorous assemblages. Herbivorous insect richness showed a unimodal relationship with invasive grass cover that was significantly explained only by way of the variation in host plant richness. The same result was found for polyphagous and oligophagous insects, but monophages showed a significant negative response to the intensity of the grass invasion that was independent of host plant richness. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that the aggregate effect of invasive plants on herbivores tends to mirror the effects of invasive plants on host plants. In addition, exotic plants affect specialist insects differently from generalist insects; thus exotic plants affect not only the size but also the structural profile of herbivorous insect assemblages.

Species richness in natural and disturbed habitats: Asteraceae and Flower-head insects (Tephritidae: Diptera).

Anthropogenic changes in the landscape result in an environmental mosaic with serious consequences for biodiversity. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of the anthropogenic changes on Asteraceae richness and abundance, and to evaluate the consequences for the richness of Tephritidae assemblages in five sampling sites, with three sampled habitats in each: cerrado (Brazilian savanna), eucalyptus stands and pasture. Sampling was carried out in 15 random transects (cerrados and one pasture) and in 30 transects (eucalyptus stands and the remaining pastures). Composition, species richness and insect abundance in each habitat type was estimated by sampling the flower heads for each species of host plant, collected by four people for 1h. Differences in mean abundance of plant population between habitats and sites were tested by two-way ANOVA. Differences in plant species richness between habitats and sites and effects of habitat, site and host plant richness on insect richness were tested using a generalized linear model with Poisson errors. Within each sampling site, cerrados showed higher species richness of Asteraceae than pastures and eucalyptus stands. There were also significant differences in plant richness among sites. Mean population abundance values were significantly different among habitats, but not among sites. Increased host plant richness led to significant insect species richness. There were no additional significant effects of habitat on insect richness. Therefore, anthropogenic alterations in landscape determined the impoverishment of plant assemblages and therefore of insect assemblages, because of the positive relationship between host plant richness and insect richness.

Species richness in natural and disturbed habitats: Asteraceae and Flower-head insects (Tephritidae: Diptera)

Anthropogenic changes in the landscape result in an environmental mosaic with serious consequences for biodiversity. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of the anthropogenic changes on Asteraceae richness and abundance, and to evaluate the consequences for the richness of Tephritidae assemblages in five sampling sites, with three sampled habitats in each: cerrado (Brazilian savanna), eucalyptus stands and pasture. Sampling was carried out in 15 random transects (cerrados and one pasture) and in 30 transects (eucalyptus stands and the remaining pastures). Composition, species richness and insect abundance in each habitat type was estimated by sampling the flower heads for each species of host plant, collected by four people for 1h. Differences in mean abundance of plant population between habitats and sites were tested by two-way ANOVA. Differences in plant species richness between habitats and sites and effects of habitat, site and host plant richness on insect richness were tested using a generalized linear model with Poisson errors. Within each sampling site, cerrados showed higher species richness of Asteraceae than pastures and eucalyptus stands. There were also significant differences in plant richness among sites. Mean population abundance values were significantly different among habitats, but not among sites. Increased host plant richness led to significant insect species richness. There were no additional significant effects of habitat on insect richness. Therefore, anthropogenic alterations in landscape determined the impoverishment of plant assemblages and therefore of insect assemblages, because of the positive relationship between host plant richness and insect richness.

Habitat split as a cause of local population declines of amphibians with aquatic larvae.

Most amphibian species have biphasic life histories and undergo an ontogenetic shift from aquatic to terrestrial habitats. In deforested landscapes, streams and forest fragments are frequently disjunct, jeopardizing the life cycle of forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae. We tested the impact of habitat split--defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life-history stages of a species--on four forest-associated amphibian species in a severely fragmented landscape of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibians in forest fragments with and without streams (referred to as wet and dry fragments, respectively), including the adjacent grass-field matrix. Our comparison of capture rates in dry fragments and nearby streams in the matrix allowed us to evaluate the number of individuals that engaged in high-risk migrations through nonforested habitats. Adult amphibians moved from dry fragments to matrix streams at the beginning of the rainy season, reproduced, and returned at the end of the breeding period. Juveniles of the year moved to dry fragments along with adults. These risky reproductive migrations through nonforested habitats that expose individuals to dehydration, predation, and other hazards may cause population declines in dry fragments. Indeed, capture rates were significantly lower in dry fragments compared with wet fragments. Declining amphibians would strongly benefit from investments in the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation and corridors linking breeding and nonbreeding areas.

Genetic variability and pathogenicity potential of Escherichia coli isolated from recreational water reservoirs.

Contamination of recreational waters and public water supplies by Escherichia coli represents a risk for public health, since some strains can be pathogenic or propagated with other pathogenic microorganisms. In this study, two reservoirs, Billings and Guarapiranga (São Paulo metropolitan area, Brazil), were investigated in order to assess E. coli diversity. Genetic typing using rep-PCR completely differentiated all strains and enabled the determination of their genetic variability. Although the same level of genetic variability was observed for strains originating from both reservoirs, randomization procedures showed that isolates from the same reservoir were more closely related to each other. Phylogenetic group frequencies in each reservoir suggested that contamination in the Billings reservoir was mostly from humans, whereas contamination in the Guarapiranga reservoir was mostly from animals. Colony blot experiments using probes from several virulence factor genes showed that both reservoirs contained potential pathogenic strains and may represent a risk to recreational or household usage of these water resources.

Assemblages of endophagous insects on Asteraceae in São Paulo cerrados.

A survey of the endophagous insects fauna associated to Asteraceae capitula was carried out from 2000 to 2002 in eight cerrado sensu stricto sites located in the Brazilian state of Sdo Paulo. Sixty-four endophagous species of Diptera and Lepidoptera were recorded from 49 asteracean host plants. Approximately half of the species were obtained from a single locality, with a large proportion emerging from a single sample (unicates). Thirty percent of the species were singletons (i.e. only one individual was recorded). The large proportion of rare species suggests a high species turnover among localities. Lepidopteran species were recorded on more host species than dipterans, confirming their more polyphagous food habit, also observed in other Brazilian biomes and in Europe. We conclude that the studied cerrado localities, all within São Paulo State, are isolated with its invertebrate fauna composed of many rare and exclusive species. We suggest that the maintenance of Asteraceae biodiversity and their endophagous insects depend on the conservation of all cerrado remnants in the state.

Assemblages of endophagous insects on Asteraceae in São Paulo Cerrados

A survey of the endophagous insects fauna associated to Asteraceae capitula was carried out from 2000 to 2002 in eight cerrado sensu stricto sites located in the Brazilian state of São Paulo. Sixty-four endophagous species of Diptera and Lepidoptera were recorded from 49 asteracean host plants. Approximately half of the species were obtained from a single locality, with a large proportion emerging from a single sample (unicates). Thirty percent of the species were singletons (i.e. only one individual was recorded). The large proportion of rare species suggests a high species turnover among localities. Lepidopteran species were recorded on more host species than dipterans, confirming their more polyphagous food habit, also observed in other Brazilian biomes and in Europe. We conclude that the studied cerrado localities, all within São Paulo State, are isolated with its invertebrate fauna composed of many rare and exclusive species. We suggest that the maintenance of Asteraceae biodiversity and their endophagous insects depend on the conservation of all cerrado remnants in the state.

No presente estudo foi realizado um levantamento da fauna de insetos endófagos de capítulos de Asteraceae (Compostas), de 2000 a 2002, em oito localidades de cerrados sensu stricto no estado de São Paulo. Foram obtidas 64 espécies de endófagos (dípteros e lepidópteros) de 49 espécies de hospedeiras. Aproximadamente metade das espécies foi obtida de apenas uma área, e destas uma grande proporção ocorreu em apenas uma amostra (unicatas). Trinta por cento das espécies foram consideradas "singletons" (apenas um indivíduo foi obtido). A grande quantidade de espécies raras sugere uma forte troca de espécies entre diferentes áreas. Lepidópteros foram registrados em mais espécies hospedeiras que dípteros, confirmando o já observado para o mesmo sistema de insetos e plantas em outros ambientes no Brasil e Europa. As áreas de cerrado sensu stricto estudadas no estado de São Paulo encontram-se isoladas, com uma grande parte da fauna de invertebrados composta por muitas espécies raras e exclusivas. Diante deste quadro, sugere-se que a manutenção da biodiversidade de Asteraceae e seus endófagos em seus níveis atuais depende da conservação de todo o conjunto de remanescentes de cerrado do estado.

Testing the trend towards specialization in herbivore-host plant associations using a molecular phylogeny of Tomoplagia (Diptera: Tephritidae).

Herbivorous insects are abundant and diverse and insect-host plant associations tend to be specialized and evolutionarily conserved. Some authors suggested that generalist insect lineages tend to become specialists, with host specialization leading to an evolutionary dead-end for the parasite species. In this paper, we have examined this tendency using a phylogenetic tree of Tomoplagia (Diptera: Tephritidae), a parasite of asteracean plants. We have tested the trend towards specialization in different hierarchical degrees of host specialization. The topology of the tree, the inference of ancestral hosts, and the lack of directional evolution indicated that specialization does not correspond to a phylogenetic dead-end. Although most Tomoplagia species are restricted to a single host genus, specialization does not seem to limit further host range evolution. This work emphasizes the advantages of the use of different levels of specialization and the inclusion of occasional hosts to establish a more detailed scenario for the evolution of this kind of ecological association.

New species of Tomoplagia Coquillett (Diptera: Tephritidae) from capitula of Asteraceae in Brazil / Novas espécies de Tomoplagia Coquillett (Diptera: Tephritidae) de capítulos de Asteraceae no Brasil

Twelve new species of Tomoplagia reared from capitula of Asteraceae collected in southern and southeastern Brazil are described (T. achromoptera n. sp., T. aczeli n. sp., T. bicolor n. sp., T. brasiliensis n. sp., T. cipoensis n. sp., T. dimorphica n. sp., T. grandis n. sp., T. interrupta n. sp., T. matzenbacheri n. sp., T. rupestris n. sp., T. variabilis n. sp., and T. voluta n. sp.). Five of these species have highly atypical wing markings, differing from the usual pattern for the genus, which includes five oblique yellow bands. Aberrant wing patterns were previously known in only three species. All the new species were reared from capitula of Vernonieae, confirming this Asteraceae tribe as the main host group of Tomoplagia species. Of these new species, five are specialists on the Lychnophorinae, a Vernonieae subtribe endemic to campo rupestre vegetation, which occurs on tops of mountain chains in central and southeastern Brazil. These species of Tomoplagia are probably restricted to the small ranges of these host plants. An addedum to the most recent key to species (Aczél 1955a) is provided, including couplets to all of the species with modified wing patterns

São descritas doze novas espécies de Tomoplagia criadas de capítulos de asteráceas, coletados no Sul e Sudeste do Brasil (T. aczeli n. sp., T. achromoptera n. sp., T. bicolor n. sp., T. brasiliensis n. sp., T. cipoensis n. sp., T. dimorphica n. sp., T. grandis n. sp., T. interrupta n. sp., T. matzenbacheri n. sp., T. rupestris n. sp., T. variabilis n. sp., e T. voluta n. sp.). Cinco espécies têm ornamentações atípicas das asas, derivadas do padrão normal para o gênero, que é de cinco faixas amarelas oblíquas. Padrões atípicos foram descritos anteriormente apenas para três espécies. Todas as espécies descritas foram criadas de capítulos de Vernonieae, o que confirma as plantas desta tribo de asteráceas como as principais hospedeiras das espécies de Tomoplagia. Entre as espécies de Tomoplagia descritas, cinco são especialistas de Lychnophorinae, uma sub-tribo das Vernonieae endêmica da vegetação de campo rupestre, que ocorre nos topos de cadeias montanhosas do Brasil central e sudeste. Estas espécies de Tomoplagia são, provavelmente, restritas à pequena distribuição geográfica de suas plantas hospedeiras. Um adendo à chave para espécies mais recente (Aczél 1955a) é apresentado, incluindo entradas para todas as espécies com ornamentações atípicas das asas