Polygenic risk score portability for common diseases across genetically diverse populations.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from European individuals have reduced portability across global populations, limiting their clinical implementation at worldwide scale. Here, we investigate the performance of a wide range of PRS models across four ancestry groups (Africans, Europeans, East Asians, and South Asians) for 14 conditions of high-medical interest. METHODS: To select the best-performing model per trait, we first compared PRS performances for publicly available scores, and constructed new models using different methods (LDpred2, PRS-CSx and SNPnet). We used 285 K European individuals from the UK Biobank (UKBB) for training and 18 K, including diverse ancestries, for testing. We then evaluated PRS portability for the best models in Europeans and compared their accuracies with respect to the best PRS per ancestry. Finally, we validated the selected PRS models using an independent set of 8,417 individuals from Biobank of the Americas-Genomelink (BbofA-GL); and performed a PRS-Phewas. RESULTS: We confirmed a decay in PRS performances relative to Europeans when the evaluation was conducted using the best-PRS model for Europeans (51.3% for South Asians, 46.6% for East Asians and 39.4% for Africans). We observed an improvement in the PRS performances when specifically selecting ancestry specific PRS models (phenotype variance increase: 1.62 for Africans, 1.40 for South Asians and 0.96 for East Asians). Additionally, when we selected the optimal model conditional on ancestry for CAD, HDL-C and LDL-C, hypertension, hypothyroidism and T2D, PRS performance for studied populations was more comparable to what was observed in Europeans. Finally, we were able to independently validate tested models for Europeans, and conducted a PRS-Phewas, identifying cross-trait interplay between cardiometabolic conditions, and between immune-mediated components. CONCLUSION: Our work comprehensively evaluated PRS accuracy across a wide range of phenotypes, reducing the uncertainty with respect to which PRS model to choose and in which ancestry group. This evaluation has let us identify specific conditions where implementing risk-prioritization strategies could have practical utility across diverse ancestral groups, contributing to democratizing the implementation of PRS.

Genetic Signatures of Positive Selection in Human Populations Adapted to High Altitude in Papua New Guinea.

Papua New Guinea (PNG) hosts distinct environments mainly represented by the ecoregions of the Highlands and Lowlands that display increased altitude and a predominance of pathogens, respectively. Since its initial peopling approximately 50,000 years ago, inhabitants of these ecoregions might have differentially adapted to the environmental pressures exerted by each of them. However, the genetic basis of adaptation in populations from these areas remains understudied. Here, we investigated signals of positive selection in 62 highlanders and 43 lowlanders across 14 locations in the main island of PNG using whole-genome genotype data from the Oceanian Genome Variation Project (OGVP) and searched for signals of positive selection through population differentiation and haplotype-based selection scans. Additionally, we performed archaic ancestry estimation to detect selection signals in highlanders within introgressed regions of the genome. Among highland populations we identified candidate genes representing known biomarkers for mountain sickness (SAA4, SAA1, PRDX1, LDHA) as well as candidate genes of the Notch signaling pathway (PSEN1, NUMB, RBPJ, MAML3), a novel proposed pathway for high altitude adaptation in multiple organisms. We also identified candidate genes involved in oxidative stress, inflammation, and angiogenesis, processes inducible by hypoxia, as well as in components of the eye lens and the immune response. In contrast, candidate genes in the lowlands are mainly related to the immune response (HLA-DQB1, HLA-DQA2, TAAR6, TAAR9, TAAR8, RNASE4, RNASE6, ANG). Moreover, we find two candidate regions to be also enriched with archaic introgressed segments, suggesting that archaic admixture has played a role in the local adaptation of PNG populations.

Mexican Biobank advances population and medical genomics of diverse ancestries.

Latin America continues to be severely underrepresented in genomics research, and fine-scale genetic histories and complex trait architectures remain hidden owing to insufficient data1. To fill this gap, the Mexican Biobank project genotyped 6,057 individuals from 898 rural and urban localities across all 32 states in Mexico at a resolution of 1.8 million genome-wide markers with linked complex trait and disease information creating a valuable nationwide genotype-phenotype database. Here, using ancestry deconvolution and inference of identity-by-descent segments, we inferred ancestral population sizes across Mesoamerican regions over time, unravelling Indigenous, colonial and postcolonial demographic dynamics2-6. We observed variation in runs of homozygosity among genomic regions with different ancestries reflecting distinct demographic histories and, in turn, different distributions of rare deleterious variants. We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 22 complex traits and found that several traits are better predicted using the Mexican Biobank GWAS compared to the UK Biobank GWAS7,8. We identified genetic and environmental factors associating with trait variation, such as the length of the genome in runs of homozygosity as a predictor for body mass index, triglycerides, glucose and height. This study provides insights into the genetic histories of individuals in Mexico and dissects their complex trait architectures, both crucial for making precision and preventive medicine initiatives accessible worldwide.

Ancient DNA reveals five streams of migration into Micronesia and matrilocality in early Pacific seafarers.

Micronesia began to be peopled earlier than other parts of Remote Oceania, but the origins of its inhabitants remain unclear. We generated genome-wide data from 164 ancient and 112 modern individuals. Analysis reveals five migratory streams into Micronesia. Three are East Asian related, one is Polynesian, and a fifth is a Papuan source related to mainland New Guineans that is different from the New Britain-related Papuan source for southwest Pacific populations but is similarly derived from male migrants ~2500 to 2000 years ago. People of the Mariana Archipelago may derive all of their precolonial ancestry from East Asian sources, making them the only Remote Oceanians without Papuan ancestry. Female-inherited mitochondrial DNA was highly differentiated across early Remote Oceanian communities but homogeneous within, implying matrilocal practices whereby women almost never raised their children in communities different from the ones in which they grew up.

A loss-of-function IFNAR1 allele in Polynesia underlies severe viral diseases in homozygotes.

Globally, autosomal recessive IFNAR1 deficiency is a rare inborn error of immunity underlying susceptibility to live attenuated vaccine and wild-type viruses. We report seven children from five unrelated kindreds of western Polynesian ancestry who suffered from severe viral diseases. All the patients are homozygous for the same nonsense IFNAR1 variant (p.Glu386*). This allele encodes a truncated protein that is absent from the cell surface and is loss-of-function. The fibroblasts of the patients do not respond to type I IFNs (IFN-α2, IFN-ω, or IFN-ß). Remarkably, this IFNAR1 variant has a minor allele frequency >1% in Samoa and is also observed in the Cook, Society, Marquesas, and Austral islands, as well as Fiji, whereas it is extremely rare or absent in the other populations tested, including those of the Pacific region. Inherited IFNAR1 deficiency should be considered in individuals of Polynesian ancestry with severe viral illnesses.

The genetic legacy of the Manila galleon trade in Mexico.

The population of Mexico has a considerable genetic substructure due to both its pre-Columbian diversity and due to genetic admixture from post-Columbian trans-oceanic migrations. The latter primarily originated in Europe and Africa, but also, to a lesser extent, in Asia. We analyze previously understudied genetic connections between Asia and Mexico to infer the timing and source of this genetic ancestry in Mexico. We identify the predominant origin within Southeast Asia-specifically western Indonesian and non-Negrito Filipino sources-and we date its arrival in Mexico to approximately 13 generations ago (1620 CE). This points to a genetic legacy from the seventeenth century Manila galleon trade between the colonial Spanish Philippines and the Pacific port of Acapulco. Indeed, within Mexico we observe the highest level of this trans-Pacific ancestry in Acapulco, located in the state of Guerrero. This colonial Spanish trade route from East Asia to Europe was centred on Mexico and appears in historical records, but its legacy has been largely ignored. Identities and stories were suppressed due to slavery, assimilation of the immigrants as 'Indios' and incomplete historical records. Here we characterize this understudied Mexican ancestry. This article is part of the theme issue 'Celebrating 50 years since Lewontin's apportionment of human diversity'.

Efficient ancestry and mutation simulation with msprime 1.0.

Stochastic simulation is a key tool in population genetics, since the models involved are often analytically intractable and simulation is usually the only way of obtaining ground-truth data to evaluate inferences. Because of this, a large number of specialized simulation programs have been developed, each filling a particular niche, but with largely overlapping functionality and a substantial duplication of effort. Here, we introduce msprime version 1.0, which efficiently implements ancestry and mutation simulations based on the succinct tree sequence data structure and the tskit library. We summarize msprime's many features, and show that its performance is excellent, often many times faster and more memory efficient than specialized alternatives. These high-performance features have been thoroughly tested and validated, and built using a collaborative, open source development model, which reduces duplication of effort and promotes software quality via community engagement.

Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks.

Polynesia was settled in a series of extraordinary voyages across an ocean spanning one third of the Earth1, but the sequences of islands settled remain unknown and their timings disputed. Currently, several centuries separate the dates suggested by different archaeological surveys2-4. Here, using genome-wide data from merely 430 modern individuals from 21 key Pacific island populations and novel ancestry-specific computational analyses, we unravel the detailed genetic history of this vast, dispersed island network. Our reconstruction of the branching Polynesian migration sequence reveals a serial founder expansion, characterized by directional loss of variants, that originated in Samoa and spread first through the Cook Islands (Rarotonga), then to the Society (Totaiete ma) Islands (11th century), the western Austral (Tuha'a Pae) Islands and Tuamotu Archipelago (12th century), and finally to the widely separated, but genetically connected, megalithic statue-building cultures of the Marquesas (Te Henua 'Enana) Islands in the north, Raivavae in the south, and Easter Island (Rapa Nui), the easternmost of the Polynesian islands, settled in approximately AD 1200 via Mangareva.

Imputation Performance in Latin American Populations: Improving Rare Variants Representation With the Inclusion of Native American Genomes.

Current Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) rely on genotype imputation to increase statistical power, improve fine-mapping of association signals, and facilitate meta-analyses. Due to the complex demographic history of Latin America and the lack of balanced representation of Native American genomes in current imputation panels, the discovery of locally relevant disease variants is likely to be missed, limiting the scope and impact of biomedical research in these populations. Therefore, the necessity of better diversity representation in genomic databases is a scientific imperative. Here, we expand the 1,000 Genomes reference panel (1KGP) with 134 Native American genomes (1KGP + NAT) to assess imputation performance in Latin American individuals of mixed ancestry. Our panel increased the number of SNPs above the GWAS quality threshold, thus improving statistical power for association studies in the region. It also increased imputation accuracy, particularly in low-frequency variants segregating in Native American ancestry tracts. The improvement is subtle but consistent across countries and proportional to the number of genomes added from local source populations. To project the potential improvement with a higher number of reference genomes, we performed simulations and found that at least 3,000 Native American genomes are needed to equal the imputation performance of variants in European ancestry tracts. This reflects the concerning imbalance of diversity in current references and highlights the contribution of our work to reducing it while complementing efforts to improve global equity in genomic research.

Native American gene flow into Polynesia predating Easter Island settlement.

The possibility of voyaging contact between prehistoric Polynesian and Native American populations has long intrigued researchers. Proponents have pointed to the existence of New World crops, such as the sweet potato and bottle gourd, in the Polynesian archaeological record, but nowhere else outside the pre-Columbian Americas1-6, while critics have argued that these botanical dispersals need not have been human mediated7. The Norwegian explorer Thor Heyerdahl controversially suggested that prehistoric South American populations had an important role in the settlement of east Polynesia and particularly of Easter Island (Rapa Nui)2. Several limited molecular genetic studies have reached opposing conclusions, and the possibility continues to be as hotly contested today as it was when first suggested8-12. Here we analyse genome-wide variation in individuals from islands across Polynesia for signs of Native American admixture, analysing 807 individuals from 17 island populations and 15 Pacific coast Native American groups. We find conclusive evidence for prehistoric contact of Polynesian individuals with Native American individuals (around AD 1200) contemporaneous with the settlement of remote Oceania13-15. Our analyses suggest strongly that a single contact event occurred in eastern Polynesia, before the settlement of Rapa Nui, between Polynesian individuals and a Native American group most closely related to the indigenous inhabitants of present-day Colombia.

Modeling SNP array ascertainment with Approximate Bayesian Computation for demographic inference.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in commercial arrays have often been discovered in a small number of samples from selected populations. This ascertainment skews patterns of nucleotide diversity and affects population genetic inferences. We propose a demographic inference pipeline that explicitly models the SNP discovery protocol in an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. We simulated genomic regions according to a demographic model incorporating parameters for the divergence of three well-characterized HapMap populations and recreated the SNP distribution of a commercial array by varying the number of haploid samples and the allele frequency cut-off in the given regions. We then calculated summary statistics obtained from both the ascertained and genomic data and inferred ascertainment and demographic parameters. We implemented our pipeline to study the admixture process that gave rise to the present-day Mexican population. Our estimate of the time of admixture is closer to the historical dates than those in previous works which did not consider ascertainment bias. Although the use of whole genome sequences for demographic inference is becoming the norm, there are still underrepresented areas of the world from where only SNP array data are available. Our inference framework is applicable to those cases and will help with the demographic inference.

Genetic characterization of indigenous peoples from Oaxaca, Mexico, and its relation to linguistic and geographic isolation.

We used 15 short tandem repeat (STR) loci (D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, TH01, D13S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, VWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818, and FGA) to genetically characterize 361 individuals from 11 indigenous populations (Amuzgo, Chinanteco, Chontal, Huave, Mazateco, Mixe, Mixteco, Triqui, Zapoteco del Istmo, Zapoteco del Valle, and Zoque) from Oaxaca, Mexico. We also used previously published data from other Mexican peoples (Maya, Chol, Tepehua, Otomí, and Mestizos from northern and central Mexico) to delineate genetic relations, for a total of 541 individuals. Average heterozygosity (H) was lower in most populations from Oaxaca (range 0.687 in Zoque to 0.756 in Chontal) than values observed in Mestizo populations from Mexico (0.758 and 0.793 in central and northern Mestizo, respectively) but higher than values observed in other Amerindian populations from South America; the same relation was true for the number of alleles (n(a) ). We tested (using the software Structure) whether major geographic or linguistic barriers to gene flow existed among the populations of Oaxaca and found that the populations appeared to constitute one or two genetic groups, suggesting that neither geographic location nor linguistics had an effect on the genetic structure of these culturally and linguistically highly diverse indigenous peoples. Moreover, we found a low but statistically significant between-population differentiation. In addition, the genetic structure of Oaxacan populations did not fit an isolation-by-distance model. Finally, using AMOVA and a Bayesian clustering approach, we did not detect significant geographic or linguistic barriers to gene flow within Oaxaca. These results suggest that the indigenous communities of Oaxaca, although culturally isolated, can be genetically defined as a large, nearly panmictic population in which migration could be a more important population mechanism than genetic drift. Finally, compared with outgroups in Mexico (both indigenous peoples and Mestizos), three groups were apparent. Among them, only the Otomí population from Hidalgo has a different culture and language.