Model parameter estimation with imprecise information.

Model parameter estimation is a well-known inverse problem, as long as single-value point data are available as observations of system performance measurement. However, classical statistical methods, such as the minimization of an objective function or maximum likelihood, are no longer straightforward, when measurements are imprecise in nature. Typical examples of the latter include censored data and binary information. Here, we explore Approximate Bayesian Computation as a simple method to perform model parameter estimation with such imprecise information. We demonstrate the method for the example of a plain rainfall-runoff model and illustrate the advantages and shortcomings. Last, we outline the value of Shapley values to determine which type of observation contributes to the parameter estimation and which are of minor importance.

Impact of impeller design on anaerobic digestion: Assessment of mixing dynamics, methane yield, microbial communities and digestate dewaterability.

The efficiency of anaerobic digestion (AD) processes is intricately tied to mixing quality. This research investigates the influence of two impeller types, namely a helical ribbon impeller (HRI) and a pitched-blade impeller (PBI), on key aspects of AD. The investigation encompassed mixing dynamics, methane production, microbial communities, and the previously unexplored impact on digestate dewaterability. Results show that agitation with the PBI exhibited stratification, with bottom layer total solids (TS) values of 3.1% for the PBI and 2.6% for the HRI. Nevertheless, methane yield remained unchanged, averaging 286 LN/kg volatile solids (VS)added. Slower mixing with the HRI achieved more uniform mixing and reduced energy requirements. Additionally, impeller type significantly affected digestate dewaterability, leading to a 3.8% increase in TS of the dewatered sludge when using the PBI. These findings highlight the importance of considering mixing not only for methane production and reduced maintenance but also for achieving optimal digestate dewaterability.

Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.

Eminent in pandemic management is accurate information on infection dynamics to plan for timely installation of control measures and vaccination campaigns. Despite huge efforts in diagnostic testing of individuals, the underestimation of the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections remains significant due to the large number of undocumented cases. In this paper we demonstrate and compare three methods to estimate the dynamics of true infections based on secondary data i.e., (a) test positivity, (b) infection fatality and (c) wastewater monitoring. The concept is tested with Austrian data on a national basis for the period of April 2020 to December 2022. Further, we use the results of prevalence studies from the same period to generate (upper and lower bounds of) credible intervals for true infections for four data points. Model parameters are subsequently estimated by applying Approximate Bayesian Computation-rejection sampling and Genetic Algorithms. The method is then validated for the case study Vienna. We find that all three methods yield fairly similar results for estimating the true number of infections, which supports the idea that all three datasets contain similar baseline information. None of them is considered superior, as their advantages and shortcomings depend on the specific case study at hand.

Lagrangian solver for coupling hydrodynamics with biokinetic conversion modelling in anaerobic digesters.

Conventional anaerobic digestion models used in wastewater treatment plants suffer from inaccuracies due to the limited consideration given to hydrodynamics within the digester tank. A solution to this is to combine computational fluid dynamics simulations with anaerobic models. This paper introduces a novel methodology in the form of a software toolbox that implements the standard anaerobic digestion model no.1 in C++ and can interface with particle-based Lagrangian simulations. This method provides significantly more insights into the biochemical conversion process by accounting for the impact of the hydrodynamics on the biochemical reactions. The paper presents the background of the method along with a conceptual and numerical verification. It also presents a case study of a 3D lab scale digester comparing the results from the solver with the standard anaerobic digestion model. This integrated approach can be used by operators and designers for optimisations and also for predictive modelling.

Effect of turbulent diffusion in modeling anaerobic digestion.

In this study, the impact of turbulent diffusion on mixing of biochemical reaction models is explored by implementing and validating different models. An original codebase called CHAD (Coupled Hydrodynamics and Anaerobic Digestion) is extended to incorporate turbulent diffusion and validate it against results from OpenFOAM with 2D Rayleigh-Taylor Instability and lid-driven cavity simulations. The models are then tested for the applications with Anaerobic Digestion - a widely used wastewater treatment method. The findings demonstrate that the implemented models accurately capture turbulent diffusion when provided with an accurate flow field. Specifically, a minor effect of chemical turbulent diffusion on biochemical reactions within the anaerobic digestion tank is observed, while thermal turbulent diffusion significantly influences mixing. By successfully implementing turbulent diffusion models in CHAD, its capabilities for more accurate anaerobic digestion simulations are enhanced, aiding in optimizing the design and operation of anaerobic digestion reactors in real-world wastewater treatment applications.

High prevalence group testing in epidemiology with geometrically inspired algorithms.

Demand for mass surveillance during peak times of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic caused high workload for clinical laboratories. Efficient and cost conserving testing designs by means of group testing can substantially reduce resources during possible future emergency situations. The novel hypercube algorithm proposed by Mutesa et al. 2021 published in Nature provides methodological proof of concept and points out the applicability to epidemiological testing. In this work, the algorithm is explored and expanded for settings with high group prevalence. Numerical studies investigate the limits of the adapted hypercube methodology, allowing to optimize pooling designs for specific requirements (i.e. number of samples and group prevalence). Hyperparameter optimization is performed to maximize test-reduction. Standard deviation is examined to investigate resilience and precision. Moreover, empirical validation was performed by elaborately pooling SARS-CoV-2 virus samples according to numerically optimized pooling designs. Laboratory experiments with SARS-CoV-2 sample groups, ranging from 50 to 200 items, characterized by group prevalence up to 10%, are successfully processed and analysed. Test-reductions from 50 to 72.5% were achieved in the experimental setups when compared to individual testing. Higher theoretical test-reduction is possible, depending on the number of samples and the group prevalence, indicated by simulation results.

Expanding the Pathogen Panel in Wastewater Epidemiology to Influenza and Norovirus.

Since the start of the 2019 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has proven to be a valuable tool for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. With methods and infrastructure being settled, it is time to expand the potential of this tool to a wider range of pathogens. We used over 500 archived RNA extracts from a WBE program for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance to monitor wastewater from 11 treatment plants for the presence of influenza and norovirus twice a week during the winter season of 2021/2022. Extracts were analyzed via digital PCR for influenza A, influenza B, norovirus GI, and norovirus GII. Resulting viral loads were normalized on the basis of NH4-N. Our results show a good applicability of ammonia-normalization to compare different wastewater treatment plants. Extracts originally prepared for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance contained sufficient genomic material to monitor influenza A, norovirus GI, and GII. Viral loads of influenza A and norovirus GII in wastewater correlated with numbers from infected inpatients. Further, SARS-CoV-2 related non-pharmaceutical interventions affected subsequent changes in viral loads of both pathogens. In conclusion, the expansion of existing WBE surveillance programs to include additional pathogens besides SARS-CoV-2 offers a valuable and cost-efficient possibility to gain public health information.

Prediction of hospitalisations based on wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.

Wastewater-based epidemiology is widely applied in Austria since April 2020 to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. With a steadily increasing number of monitored wastewater facilities, 123 plants covering roughly 70 % of the 9 million population were monitored as of August 2022. In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in raw sewage were analysed to infer short-term hospitalisation occupancy. The temporal lead of wastewater-based epidemiological time series over hospitalisation occupancy levels facilitates the construction of forecast models. Data pre-processing techniques are presented, including the approach of comparing multiple decentralised wastewater signals with aggregated and centralised clinical data. Time­lead quantification was performed using cross-correlation analysis and coefficient of determination optimisation approaches. Multivariate regression models were successfully applied to infer hospitalisation bed occupancy. The results show a predictive potential of viral loads in sewage towards Covid-19 hospitalisation occupancy, with an average lead time towards ICU and non-ICU bed occupancy between 14.8-17.7 days and 8.6-11.6 days, respectively. The presented procedure provides access to the trend and tipping point behaviour of pandemic dynamics and allows the prediction of short-term demand for public health services. The results showed an increase in forecast accuracy with an increase in the number of monitored wastewater treatment plants. Trained models are sensitive to changing variant types and require recalibration of model parameters, likely caused by immunity by vaccination and/or infection. The utilised approach displays a practical and rapidly implementable application of wastewater-based epidemiology to infer hospitalisation occupancy.

Machine learning for quantile regression of biogas production rates in anaerobic digesters.

Anaerobic digestion is a well-established tool at wastewater treatment plants for processing raw sludge; it can also be used to generate renewable energy by harvesting biogas in anaerobic digesters. Operational parameters, such as temperature, are usually set by plant operators according to expert knowledge. To completely utilize the potential of operational management, in this study, we calibrated a novel Temporal Fusion Transformer based on six years of life-scale time series data together with categorical features such as public holidays. The model design allows for the interpretability of the output in contrast to traditional data-driven techniques, using multi-head attention. In addition to forecasting the median biogas production rates for the following seven days, our model also yields quantiles, making it less prone to strong fluctuations. We used three well-known statistical techniques as benchmarks. The mean absolute percentage error of our forecasting approach is below 8 %.

Integrating biokinetics with computational fluid dynamics for energy performance analysis in anaerobic digestion.

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is an effective process for decomposing organic matter in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) where highly efficient digesters properly mix the sludge. To ensure a uniform substance distribution, a comprehensive modeling method is necessary. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) helps in the modeling of AD tanks but few studies have focused on integrating hydrodynamics with biokinetics because of complex AD processes. The current study presents a new CFD platform for estimating the biokinetics of WWTPs to assess the energy performance of AD tanks. The presented method is validated by numerical and experimental studies, and facilitates a link between methane production and mixing energy consumption. The on-site settings of the recirculation mixing system in the studied WWTP was able to prepare a uniform mixture of the material. However, reducing mixing rate to decrease energy consumption did not lead to proper mixing quality.

Integrating CFD-GIS modelling to refine urban heat and thermal comfort assessment.

Constant urban growth exacerbates the demand for residential, commercial and traffic areas, leading to progressive surface sealing and urban densification. With climate change altering precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide, cities are exposed to multiple risks, demanding holistic and anticipatory urban planning strategies and adaptive measures that are multi-beneficial. Sustainable urban planning requires comprehensive tools that account for different aspects and boundary conditions and are capable of mapping and assessing crucial processes of land-atmosphere interactions and the impacts of adaptation measures on the urban climate system. Here, we combine Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities to refine an existing 2D urban micro- and bioclimatic modelling approach. In particular, we account for the vertical and horizontal variability in wind speed and air temperature patterns in the urban canopy layer. Our results highlight the importance of variability of these patterns in analysing urban heat development, intensity and thermal comfort at multiple heights from the ground surface. Neglecting vertical and horizontal variability, non-integrated CFD modelling underestimates mean land surface temperature by 7.8 °C and the Universal Thermal Climate Index by 6.9 °C compared to CFD-integrated modelling. Due to the strong implications of wind and air temperature patterns on the relationship between surface temperature and human thermal comfort, we urge caution when relying on studies solely based on surface temperatures for urban heat assessment and hot spot analysis as this could lead to misinterpretations of hot and cool spots in cities and, thus, mask the anticipated effects of adaptation measures. The integrated CFD-GIS modelling approach, which we demonstrate, improves urban climate studies and supports more comprehensive assessments of urban heat and human thermal comfort to sustainably develop resilient cities.

Smart water campus - a testbed for smart water applications.

The Internet of Things concept includes low-cost sensors in combination with innovative wireless communication technology, supporting a large-scale implementation of measurement equipment in the field of urban water infrastructure (UWI). At present, the potentials of such smart solutions are often unclear, making it difficult for decision-makers to justify investments. To address this shortcoming, the Smart Campus is represented as an innovative testbed for smart and data-driven applications in the field of network-based UWI. During the last few years, the campus area of the University of Innsbruck has been comprehensively equipped with a variety of low-cost sensors for monitoring and controlling the UWI in high resolution (1-15 min). The experiences showed that the quality of service is influenced by the choice of communication technology and the installation location, thereby affecting the desired applications. Additionally, water distribution and urban drainage network including nature-based solutions have been integrated into an overall monitored system extended by measures to involve the urban population. This integrative approach allows the usage of synergies for the implementation and supports cross-system improvements (e.g., smart rainwater harvesting). However, an integration of different participants also implies new requirements for the project team (e.g., including social science).

Data modelling recipes for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology.

Wastewater based epidemiology is recognized as one of the monitoring pillars, providing essential information for pandemic management. Central in the methodology are data modelling concepts for both communicating the monitoring results but also for analysis of the signal. It is due to the fast development of the field that a range of modelling concepts are used but without a coherent framework. This paper provides for such a framework, focusing on robust and simple concepts readily applicable, rather than applying latest findings from e.g., machine learning. It is demonstrated that data preprocessing, most important normalization by means of biomarkers and equal temporal spacing of the scattered data, is crucial. In terms of the latter, downsampling to a weekly spaced series is sufficient. Also, data smoothing turned out to be essential, not only for communication of the signal dynamics but likewise for regressions, nowcasting and forecasting. Correlation of the signal with epidemic indicators requires multivariate regression as the signal alone cannot explain the dynamics but - for this case study - multiple linear regression proofed to be a suitable tool when the focus is on understanding and interpretation. It was also demonstrated that short term prediction (7 days) is accurate with simple models (exponential smoothing or autoregressive models) but forecast accuracy deteriorates fast for longer periods.

Viral variant-resolved wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at national scale.

SARS-CoV-2 surveillance by wastewater-based epidemiology is poised to provide a complementary approach to sequencing individual cases. However, robust quantification of variants and de novo detection of emerging variants remains challenging for existing strategies. We deep sequenced 3,413 wastewater samples representing 94 municipal catchments, covering >59% of the population of Austria, from December 2020 to February 2022. Our system of variant quantification in sewage pipeline designed for robustness (termed VaQuERo) enabled us to deduce the spatiotemporal abundance of predefined variants from complex wastewater samples. These results were validated against epidemiological records of >311,000 individual cases. Furthermore, we describe elevated viral genetic diversity during the Delta variant period, provide a framework to predict emerging variants and measure the reproductive advantage of variants of concern by calculating variant-specific reproduction numbers from wastewater. Together, this study demonstrates the power of national-scale WBE to support public health and promises particular value for countries without extensive individual monitoring.

Quest for Optimal Regression Models in SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Based Epidemiology.

Wastewater-based epidemiology is a recognised source of information for pandemic management. In this study, we investigated the correlation between a SARS-CoV-2 signal derived from wastewater sampling and COVID-19 incidence values monitored by means of individual testing programs. The dataset used in the study is composed of timelines (duration approx. five months) of both signals at four wastewater treatment plants across Austria, two of which drain large communities and the other two drain smaller communities. Eight regression models were investigated to predict the viral incidence under varying data inputs and pre-processing methods. It was found that population-based normalisation and smoothing as a pre-processing of the viral load data significantly influence the fitness of the regression models. Moreover, the time latency lag between the wastewater data and the incidence derived from the testing program was found to vary between 2 and 7 days depending on the time period and site. It was found to be necessary to take such a time lag into account by means of multivariate modelling to boost the performance of the regression. Comparing the models, no outstanding one could be identified as all investigated models are revealing a sufficient correlation for the task. The pre-processing of data and a multivariate model formulation is more important than the model structure.

Data filtering methods for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance.

In the case of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic management, wastewater-based epidemiology aims to derive information on the infection dynamics by monitoring virus concentrations in the wastewater. However, due to the intrinsic random fluctuations of the viral signal in wastewater caused by several influencing factors that cannot be determined in detail (e.g. dilutions; number of people discharging; variations in virus excretion; water consumption per day; transport and fate processes in sewer system), the subsequent prevalence analysis may result in misleading conclusions. It is thus helpful to apply data filtering techniques to reduce the noise in the signal. In this paper we investigate 13 smoothing algorithms applied to the virus signals monitored in four wastewater treatment plants in Austria. The parameters of the algorithms have been defined by an optimization procedure aiming for performance metrics. The results are further investigated by means of a cluster analysis. While all algorithms are in principle applicable, SPLINE, Generalized Additive Model and Friedman's Super Smoother are recognized as superior methods in this context (with the latter two having a tendency to over-smoothing). A first analysis of the resulting datasets indicates the positive effect of filtering to the correlation of the viral signal to monitored incidence values.

On the effect of the inlet configuration for anaerobic digester mixing.

Sludge recirculation mixing in anaerobic digesters is essential for the stable operation of the digestion process. While often neglected, the configuration of the sludge inlet has a substantial influence on the efficiency of the mixing process. The fluid is either injected directly into the enclosed fluid domain or splashes onto the free surface of the slurry flow. In this paper, the aim was to investigate the effect of the inlet configuration by means of computational fluid dynamics-using ANSYS Fluent. Single-phase and multi-phase models are applied for a submerged and splashing inlet, respectively. To reduce the high computational demand, we also develop surrogate single-phase models for the splashing inlet. The digester mixing is analyzed by comparing velocity contours, velocity profiles, mixing time and dead volume. The non-Newtonian characteristics of the sludge is considered, and a [Formula: see text] model is employed for obtaining turbulence closure. Our method is validated by means of a previous study on the same geometry. Applying a submerged inlet configuration, the resulting dead volume in the tank is estimated around 80 times lower than for the case of a splashing inlet. Additionally, by emulating the multi-phase model for splashing inlet configurations with a single-phase one, the simulation clock time reduced to 15%.

Efficient integration of IoT-based micro storages to improve urban drainage performance through advanced control strategies.

The smart rain barrel (SRB) consists of a conventional RB with storage volumes between 200 and 500 L, which is extended by a remotely (and centrally) controllable discharge valve. The SRB is capable of releasing stormwater prior to precipitation events by using high-resolution weather forecasts to increase detention capacity. However, as shown in a previous work, a large-scale implementation combined with a simultaneous opening of discharge valves clearly reduced the effectiveness. The aim of this work was to systematically investigate different control strategies for wet weather by evaluating their impact on sewer performance. For the case study, an alpine municipality was hypothetically retrofitted with SRBs (total additional storage volume of 181 m3). The results showed that combined sewer overflow (CSO) volume and subsequently pollution mass can be reduced by between 7 and 67% depending on rain characteristics (e.g., rain pattern, amount of precipitation) and an applied control strategy. Effectiveness of the SRBs increases with lower CSO volume, whereas more advanced control strategies based on sewer conditions can clearly improve the system's performance compared to simpler control strategies. For higher CSO volume, the SRBs can postpone the start of an CSO event, which is important for a first-flush phenomenon.

A rapid fine-scale approach to modelling urban bioclimatic conditions.

Surface characteristics play a vital role in simulations for urban bioclimatic conditions. Changing relationships and distribution patterns of sealed and vegetated surfaces as well as building geometry across different scales in urban environments influence surface temperatures. Cities comprise different urban forms, which, depending on their surface characteristics, enhance the heating process, increasing the emergence of urban heat islands (UHIs). Detecting priority areas to introduce multi-beneficial climate change adaptation measures is set to be a key task for the cities long-term strategies to improve climatic conditions across different urban structures and scales. We introduce a simple and fast spatial modelling approach to carry out fine-scale simulations for land surface temperature (LST), mean radiant temperature (MRT) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in a 2D environment. Capabilities of our modelling approach are demonstrated in evaluating urban thermal comfort in the alpine city of Innsbruck, the capital of Tyrol in western Austria. Results show a major contrast between sealed and vegetated surfaces reflected in the distributional patterns and values of LST, MRT and UTCI, correlating with the appearance and frequency of specific surface classes. We found the Sky View Factor to have a substantial impact on calculations for bioclimatic conditions and see high-albedo surfaces decrease LST but increase the apparent temperature (MRT and UTCI values) effecting human thermal comfort. Furthermore, MRT and UTCI are more sensitive to changes in emissivity values, whereas LST is more sensitive to changes in Bowen Ratio values. Application of our modelling approach can be used to identify priority areas and maximise multi-functionality of climate change adaptation measures, to support urban planning processes for heat mitigation and the implementation of policy suggestions to achieve sustainable development goals and other political objectives.