Comparative impact assessment of COVID-19 policy interventions in five South Asian countries using reported and estimated unreported death counts during 2020-2021.

There has been raging discussion and debate around the quality of COVID death data in South Asia. According to WHO, of the 5.5 million reported COVID-19 deaths from 2020-2021, 0.57 million (10%) were contributed by five low and middle income countries (LMIC) countries in the Global South: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. However, a number of excess death estimates show that the actual death toll from COVID-19 is significantly higher than the reported number of deaths. For example, the IHME and WHO both project around 14.9 million total deaths, of which 4.5-5.5 million were attributed to these five countries in 2020-2021. We focus our gaze on the COVID-19 performance of these five countries where 23.5% of the world population lives in 2020 and 2021, via a counterfactual lens and ask, to what extent the mortality of one LMIC would have been affected if it adopted the pandemic policies of another, similar country? We use a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model developed by Mishra et al. (2021) to compare both the reported and estimated total death tolls by permuting the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) across these countries over a similar time period. Our analysis shows that, in the first half of 2021, mortality in India in terms of reported deaths could have been reduced to 96 and 102 deaths per million compared to actual 170 reported deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Nepal and Pakistan respectively. In terms of total deaths, India could have averted 481 and 466 deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Bangladesh and Pakistan. On the other hand, India had a lower number of reported COVID-19 deaths per million (48 deaths per million) and a lower estimated total deaths per million (80 deaths per million) in the second half of 2021, and LMICs other than Pakistan would have lower reported mortality had they followed India's strategy. The gap between the reported and estimated total deaths highlights the varying level and extent of under-reporting of deaths across the subcontinent, and that model estimates are contingent on accuracy of the death data. Our analysis shows the importance of timely public health intervention and vaccines for lowering mortality and the need for better coverage infrastructure for the death registration system in LMICs.

Precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation and progression suggests that precision medicine interventions could improve clinical outcomes. We undertook a systematic review to determine whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes were associated with high quality evidence, reproducible results and improved outcomes for patients. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase for publications that used 'simple subclassification' approaches using simple categorisation of clinical characteristics, or 'complex subclassification' approaches which used machine learning or 'omics approaches in people with established type 2 diabetes. We excluded other diabetes subtypes and those predicting incident type 2 diabetes. We assessed quality, reproducibility and clinical relevance of extracted full-text articles and qualitatively synthesised a summary of subclassification approaches. RESULTS: Here we show data from 51 studies that demonstrate many simple stratification approaches, but none have been replicated and many are not associated with meaningful clinical outcomes. Complex stratification was reviewed in 62 studies and produced reproducible subtypes of type 2 diabetes that are associated with outcomes. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into clinically meaningful subtypes. CONCLUSION: Critical next steps toward clinical implementation are to test whether subtypes exist in more diverse ancestries and whether tailoring interventions to subtypes will improve outcomes.

In people with type 2 diabetes there may be differences in the way people present, including for example, their symptoms, body weight or how much insulin they make. We looked at recent publications describing research in this area to see whether it is possible to separate people with type 2 diabetes into different subgroups and, if so, whether these groupings were useful for patients. We found that it is possible to group people with type 2 diabetes into different subgroups and being in one subgroup can be more strongly linked to the likelihood of developing complications over others. This might mean that in the future we can treat people in different subgroups differently in ways that improves their treatment and their health but it requires further study.

Epigenome-wide association study of incident type 2 diabetes in Black and White participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

DNA methylation studies of incident type 2 diabetes in US populations are limited, and to our knowledge none included individuals of African descent living in the US. We performed an epigenome-wide association analysis of blood-based methylation levels at CpG sites with incident type 2 diabetes using Cox regression in 2,091 Black and 1,029 White individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. At an epigenome-wide significance threshold of 10-7, we detected 7 novel diabetes-associated CpG sites in C1orf151 (cg05380846: HR= 0.89, p = 8.4 × 10-12), ZNF2 (cg01585592: HR= 0.88, p = 1.6 × 10-9), JPH3 (cg16696007: HR= 0.87, p = 7.8 × 10-9), GPX6 (cg02793507: HR= 0.85, p = 2.7 × 10-8 and cg00647063: HR= 1.20, p = 2.5 × 10-8), chr17q25 (cg16865890: HR= 0.8, p = 6.9 × 10-8), and chr11p15 (cg13738793: HR= 1.11, p = 7.7 × 10-8). The CpG sites at C1orf151, ZNF2, JPH3 and GPX6, were identified in Black adults, chr17q25 was identified in White adults, and chr11p15 was identified upon meta-analyzing the two groups. The CpG sites at JPH3 and GPX6 were likely associated with incident type 2 diabetes independent of BMI. All the CpG sites, except at JPH3, were likely consequences of elevated glucose at baseline. We additionally replicated known type 2 diabetes-associated CpG sites including cg19693031 at TXNIP, cg00574958 at CPT1A, cg16567056 at PLBC2, cg11024682 at SREBF1, cg08857797 at VPS25, and cg06500161 at ABCG1, 3 of which were replicated in Black adults at the epigenome-wide threshold. We observed modest increase in type 2 diabetes variance explained upon addition of the significantly associated CpG sites to a Cox model that included traditional type 2 diabetes risk factors and fasting glucose (increase from 26.2% to 30.5% in Black adults; increase from 36.9% to 39.4% in White adults). We examined if groups of proximal CpG sites were associated with incident type 2 diabetes using a gene-region specific and a gene-region agnostic differentially methylated region (DMR) analysis. Our DMR analyses revealed several clusters of significant CpG sites, including a DMR consisting of a previously discovered CpG site at ADCY7 and promoter regions of TP63 which were differentially methylated across all race groups. This study illustrates improved discovery of CpG sites/regions by leveraging both individual CpG site and DMR analyses in an unexplored population. Our findings include genes linked to diabetes in experimental studies (e.g., GPX6, JPH3, and TP63), and future gene-specific methylation studies could elucidate the link between genes, environment, and methylation in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes.

Characterizing common and rare variations in non-traditional glycemic biomarkers using multivariate approaches on multi-ancestry ARIC study.

Glycated hemoglobin, fasting glucose, glycated albumin, and fructosamine are biomarkers that reflect different aspects of the glycemic process. Genetic studies of these glycemic biomarkers can shed light on unknown aspects of type 2 diabetes genetics and biology. While there exists several GWAS of glycated hemoglobin and fasting glucose, very few GWAS have focused on glycated albumin or fructosamine. We performed a multi-phenotype GWAS of glycated albumin and fructosamine from 7,395 White and 2,016 Black participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study on the common variants from genotyped/imputed data. We found 2 genome-wide significant loci, one mapping to known type 2 diabetes gene (ARAP1/STARD10, p = 2.8 × 10-8) and another mapping to a novel gene (UGT1A, p = 1.4 × 10-8) using multi-omics gene mapping strategies in diabetes-relevant tissues. We identified additional loci that were ancestry-specific (e.g., PRKCA from African ancestry individuals, p = 1.7 × 10-8) and sex-specific (TEX29 locus in males only, p = 3.0 × 10-8). Further, we implemented multi-phenotype gene-burden tests on whole-exome sequence data from 6,590 White and 2,309 Black ARIC participants. Eleven genes across different rare variant aggregation strategies were exome-wide significant only in multi-ancestry analysis. Four out of 11 genes had notable enrichment of rare predicted loss of function variants in African ancestry participants despite smaller sample size. Overall, 8 out of 15 loci/genes were implicated to influence these biomarkers via glycemic pathways. This study illustrates improved locus discovery and potential effector gene discovery by leveraging joint patterns of related biomarkers across entire allele frequency spectrum in multi-ancestry analyses. Most of the loci/genes we identified have not been previously implicated in studies of type 2 diabetes, and future investigation of the loci/genes potentially acting through glycemic pathways may help us better understand risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

Association of Polygenic Score With Tumor Molecular Subtypes in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

CONTEXT: Genome-wide association studies have identified germline variants associated with elevated PTC risk. It is also known that somatic driver mutations contribute to PTC development and as such PTCs can be further categorized into different molecular subtypes based on their somatic alterations. However, it remains unknown whether identified germline variants predictive of PTC risk are associated with specific molecular subtypes. OBJECTIVE: The primary goal of the present study is to determine whether germline genetic risk, as assessed using a polygenic score (PGS) is associated with molecular subtypes of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), defined based on tumor driver mutation status. METHODS: This study was carried out using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) thyroid cancer study. A previously validated 10-single-nucleotide variation PGS for PTC derived from genome-wide association study hits was calculated to ascertain germline genetic risk. The primary molecular subtypes of interest were defined by tumor driver mutation status (BRAFV600E-mutated vs RAS-mutated vs "other"). We also explored associations between PGS and molecular subtypes defined by messenger RNA (mRNA) expression, microRNA expression, and DNA methylation patterns. Polytomous logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between PGS and PTC molecular subtype with and without adjustment for clinical variables. Odds ratios (ORs) with their 95% CIs were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 359 patients were included in the study. PGS was significantly associated specific tumor molecular subtypes defined by tumor driver mutation status. Increasing germline risk was associated with having a higher odd of BRAFV600E-mutated PTC compared to PTCs without driver mutations in the "other" category. No significant difference was detected in terms of PGS tumor categorization in the RAS subtype compared to BRAFV600E. In exploratory analyses, PGS was also associated with mRNA-, microRNA-, and DNA methylation-defined molecular subtypes, as defined by the TCGA PTC study. CONCLUSION: PGS has molecular subtype-specific associations in PTC, which has implications for their use in risk prediction.

Systematic review of precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes.

Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation, progression and treatment has the potential for precision medicine interventions that can enhance care and outcomes for affected individuals. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes are associated with improved clinical outcomes, show reproducibility and have high quality evidence. We reviewed publications that deployed 'simple subclassification' using clinical features, biomarkers, imaging or other routinely available parameters or 'complex subclassification' approaches that used machine learning and/or genomic data. We found that simple stratification approaches, for example, stratification based on age, body mass index or lipid profiles, had been widely used, but no strategy had been replicated and many lacked association with meaningful outcomes. Complex stratification using clustering of simple clinical data with and without genetic data did show reproducible subtypes of diabetes that had been associated with outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and/or mortality. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into meaningful groups. More studies are needed to test these subclassifications in more diverse ancestries and prove that they are amenable to interventions.

A Meta-Analysis of the Genome-Wide Association Studies on Two Genetically Correlated Phenotypes Suggests Four New Risk Loci for Headaches.

Headache is one of the commonest complaints that doctors need to address in clinical settings. The genetic mechanisms of different types of headache are not well understood while it has been suggested that self-reported headache and self-reported migraine were genetically correlated. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on the self-reported headache phenotype from the UK Biobank and the self-reported migraine phenotype from the 23andMe using the Unified Score-based Association Test (metaUSAT) software for genetically correlated phenotypes (N = 397,385). We identified 38 loci for headaches, of which 34 loci have been reported before and four loci were newly suggested. The LDL receptor related protein 1 (LRP1)-Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 6 (STAT6)-S hort chain D ehydrogenase/R eductase family 9C member 7 (SDR9C7) region in chromosome 12 was the most significantly associated locus with a leading p value of 1.24 × 10-62 of rs11172113. The One Cut homeobox 2 (ONECUT2) gene locus in chromosome 18 was the strongest signal among the four new loci with a p value of 1.29 × 10-9 of rs673939. Our study demonstrated that the genetically correlated phenotypes of self-reported headache and self-reported migraine can be meta-analysed together in theory and in practice to boost study power to identify more variants for headaches. This study has paved way for a large GWAS meta-analysis involving cohorts of different while genetically correlated headache phenotypes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43657-022-00078-7.

Damaging Mutations in AFDN Contribute to Risk of Nonsyndromic Cleft Lip With or Without Cleft Palate.

Novel or rare damaging mutations have been implicated in the developmental pathogenesis of nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (nsCL ± P). Thus, we investigated the human genome for high-impact mutations that could explain the risk of nsCL ± P in our cohorts.We conducted next-generation sequencing (NGS) analysis of 130 nsCL ± P case-parent African trios to identify pathogenic variants that contribute to the risk of clefting. We replicated this analysis using whole-exome sequence data from a Brazilian nsCL ± P cohort. Computational analyses were then used to predict the mechanism by which these variants could result in increased risks for nsCL ± P.We discovered damaging mutations within the AFDN gene, a cell adhesion molecule (CAMs) that was previously shown to contribute to cleft palate in mice. These mutations include p.Met1164Ile, p.Thr453Asn, p.Pro1638Ala, p.Arg669Gln, p.Ala1717Val, and p.Arg1596His. We also discovered a novel splicing p.Leu1588Leu mutation in this protein. Computational analysis suggests that these amino acid changes affect the interactions with other cleft-associated genes including nectins (PVRL1, PVRL2, PVRL3, and PVRL4) CDH1, CTNNA1, and CTNND1.This is the first report on the contribution of AFDN to the risk for nsCL ± P in humans. AFDN encodes AFADIN, an important CAM that forms calcium-independent complexes with nectins 1 and 4 (encoded by the genes PVRL1 and PVRL4). This discovery shows the power of NGS analysis of multiethnic cleft samples in combination with a computational approach in the understanding of the pathogenesis of nsCL ± P.

Lessons from SARS-CoV-2 in India: A data-driven framework for pandemic resilience.

India experienced a massive surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths during April to June 2021 despite having controlled the epidemic relatively well during 2020. Using counterfactual predictions from epidemiological disease transmission models, we produce evidence in support of how strengthening public health interventions early would have helped control transmission in the country and significantly reduced mortality during the second wave, even without harsh lockdowns. We argue that enhanced surveillance at district, state, and national levels and constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission are critical for future pandemic responsiveness. Building on our retrospective analysis, we provide a tiered data-driven framework for timely escalation of future interventions as a tool for policy-makers.

Meta-analysis under imbalance in measurement of confounders in cohort studies using only summary-level data.

BACKGROUND: Cohort collaborations often require meta-analysis of exposure-outcome association estimates across cohorts as an alternative to pooling individual-level data that requires a laborious process of data harmonization on individual-level data. However, it is likely that important confounders are not all measured uniformly across the cohorts due to differences in study protocols. This imbalance in measurement of confounders leads to association estimates that are not comparable across cohorts and impedes the meta-analysis of results. METHODS: In this article, we empirically show some asymptotic relations between fully adjusted and unadjusted exposure-outcome effect estimates, and provide theoretical justification for the same. We leverage these results to obtain fully adjusted estimates for the cohorts with no information on confounders by borrowing information from cohorts with complete measurement on confounders. We implement this novel method in CIMBAL (confounder imbalance), which additionally provides a meta-analyzed estimate that appropriately accounts for the dependence between estimates arising due to borrowing of information across cohorts. We perform extensive simulation experiments to study CIMBAL's statistical properties. We illustrate CIMBAL using National Children's Study (NCS) data to estimate association of maternal education and low birth weight in infants, adjusting for maternal age at delivery, race/ethnicity, marital status, and income. RESULTS: Our simulation studies indicate that estimates of exposure-outcome association from CIMBAL are closer to the truth than those from commonly-used approaches for meta-analyzing cohorts with disparate confounder measurements. CIMBAL is not too sensitive to heterogeneity in underlying joint distributions of exposure, outcome and confounders but is very sensitive to heterogeneity of confounding bias across cohorts. Application of CIMBAL to NCS data for a proof-of-concept analysis further illustrates the utility and advantages of CIMBAL. CONCLUSIONS: CIMBAL provides a practical approach for meta-analyzing cohorts with imbalance in measurement of confounders under a weak assumption that the cohorts are independently sampled from populations with the same confounding bias.

Benchmarking statistical methods for analyzing parent-child dyads in genetic association studies.

Genetic association studies of child health outcomes often employ family-based study designs. One of the most popular family-based designs is the case-parent trio design that considers the smallest possible nuclear family consisting of two parents and their affected child. This trio design is particularly advantageous for studying relatively rare disorders because it is less prone to type 1 error inflation due to population stratification compared to population-based study designs (e.g., case-control studies). However, obtaining genetic data from both parents is difficult, from a practical perspective, and many large studies predominantly measure genetic variants in mother-child dyads. While some statistical methods for analyzing parent-child dyad data (most commonly involving mother-child pairs) exist, it is not clear if they provide the same advantage as trio methods in protecting against population stratification, or if a specific dyad design (e.g., case-mother dyads vs. case-mother/control-mother dyads) is more advantageous. In this article, we review existing statistical methods for analyzing genome-wide marker data on dyads and perform extensive simulation experiments to benchmark their type I errors and statistical power under different scenarios. We extend our evaluation to existing methods for analyzing a combination of case-parent trios and dyads together. We apply these methods on genotyped and imputed data from multiethnic mother-child pairs only, case-parent trios only or combinations of both dyads and trios from the Gene, Environment Association Studies consortium (GENEVA), where each family was ascertained through a child affected by nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate. Results from the GENEVA study corroborate the findings from our simulation experiments. Finally, we provide recommendations for using statistical genetic association methods for dyads.

Genome-wide association studies of 27 accelerometry-derived physical activity measurements identified novel loci and genetic mechanisms.

Physical inactivity (PA) is an important risk factor for a wide range of diseases. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS), based on self-reported data or a small number of phenotypes derived from accelerometry, have identified a limited number of genetic loci associated with habitual PA and provided evidence for involvement of central nervous system in mediating genetic effects. In this study, we derived 27 PA phenotypes from wrist accelerometry data obtained from 88,411 UK Biobank study participants. Single-variant association analysis based on mixed-effects models and transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) together identified 5 novel loci that were not detected by previous studies of PA, sleep duration and self-reported chronotype. For both novel and previously known loci, we discovered associations with novel phenotypes including active-to-sedentary transition probability, light-intensity PA, activity during different times of the day and proxy phenotypes to sleep and circadian patterns. Follow-up studies including TWAS, colocalization, tissue-specific heritability enrichment, gene-set enrichment and genetic correlation analyses indicated the role of the blood and immune system in modulating the genetic effects and a secondary role of the digestive and endocrine systems. Our findings provided important insights into the genetic architecture of PA and its underlying mechanisms.

Estimating the wave 1 and wave 2 infection fatality rates from SARS-CoV-2 in India.

OBJECTIVE: There has been much discussion and debate around the underreporting of COVID-19 infections and deaths in India. In this short report we first estimate the underreporting factor for infections from publicly available data released by the Indian Council of Medical Research on reported number of cases and national seroprevalence surveys. We then use a compartmental epidemiologic model to estimate the undetected number of infections and deaths, yielding estimates of the corresponding underreporting factors. We compare the serosurvey based ad hoc estimate of the infection fatality rate (IFR) with the model-based estimate. Since the first and second waves in India are intrinsically different in nature, we carry out this exercise in two periods: the first wave (April 1, 2020-January 31, 2021) and part of the second wave (February 1, 2021-May 15, 2021). The latest national seroprevalence estimate is from January 2021, and thus only relevant to our wave 1 calculations. RESULTS: Both wave 1 and wave 2 estimates qualitatively show that there is a large degree of "covert infections" in India, with model-based estimated underreporting factor for infections as 11.11 (95% credible interval (CrI) 10.71-11.47) and for deaths as 3.56 (95% CrI 3.48-3.64) for wave 1. For wave 2, underreporting factor for infections escalate to 26.77 (95% CrI 24.26-28.81) and to 5.77 (95% CrI 5.34-6.15) for deaths. If we rely on only reported deaths, the IFR estimate is 0.13% for wave 1 and 0.03% for part of wave 2. Taking underreporting of deaths into account, the IFR estimate is 0.46% for wave 1 and 0.18% for wave 2 (till May 15). Combining waves 1 and 2, as of May 15, while India reported a total of nearly 25 million cases and 270 thousand deaths, the estimated number of infections and deaths stand at 491 million (36% of the population) and 1.21 million respectively, yielding an estimated (combined) infection fatality rate of 0.25%. There is considerable variation in these estimates across Indian states. Up to date seroprevalence studies and mortality data are needed to validate these model-based estimates.

Pleiotropy method reveals genetic overlap between orofacial clefts at multiple novel loci from GWAS of multi-ethnic trios.

Based on epidemiologic and embryologic patterns, nonsyndromic orofacial clefts- the most common craniofacial birth defects in humans- are commonly categorized into cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) and cleft palate alone (CP), which are traditionally considered to be etiologically distinct. However, some evidence of shared genetic risk in IRF6, GRHL3 and ARHGAP29 regions exists; only FOXE1 has been recognized as significantly associated with both CL/P and CP in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We used a new statistical approach, PLACO (pleiotropic analysis under composite null), on a combined multi-ethnic GWAS of 2,771 CL/P and 611 CP case-parent trios. At the genome-wide significance threshold of 5 × 10-8, PLACO identified 1 locus in 1q32.2 (IRF6) that appears to increase risk for one OFC subgroup but decrease risk for the other. At a suggestive significance threshold of 10-6, we found 5 more loci with compelling candidate genes having opposite effects on CL/P and CP: 1p36.13 (PAX7), 3q29 (DLG1), 4p13 (LIMCH1), 4q21.1 (SHROOM3) and 17q22 (NOG). Additionally, we replicated the recognized shared locus 9q22.33 (FOXE1), and identified 2 loci in 19p13.12 (RAB8A) and 20q12 (MAFB) that appear to influence risk of both CL/P and CP in the same direction. We found locus-specific effects may vary by racial/ethnic group at these regions of genetic overlap, and failed to find evidence of sex-specific differences. We confirmed shared etiology of the two OFC subtypes comprising CL/P, and additionally found suggestive evidence of differences in their pathogenesis at 2 loci of genetic overlap. Our novel findings include 6 new loci of genetic overlap between CL/P and CP; 3 new loci between pairwise OFC subtypes; and 4 loci not previously implicated in OFCs. Our in-silico validation showed PLACO is robust to subtype-specific effects, and can achieve massive power gains over existing approaches for identifying genetic overlap between disease subtypes. In summary, we found suggestive evidence for new genetic regions and confirmed some recognized OFC genes either exerting shared risk or with opposite effects on risk to OFC subtypes.

A comparison of five epidemiological models for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in India.

BACKGROUND: Many popular disease transmission models have helped nations respond to the COVID-19 pandemic by informing decisions about pandemic planning, resource allocation, implementation of social distancing measures, lockdowns, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. We study how five epidemiological models forecast and assess the course of the pandemic in India: a baseline curve-fitting model, an extended SIR (eSIR) model, two extended SEIR (SAPHIRE and SEIR-fansy) models, and a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model (ICM). METHODS: Using COVID-19 case-recovery-death count data reported in India from March 15 to October 15 to train the models, we generate predictions from each of the five models from October 16 to December 31. To compare prediction accuracy with respect to reported cumulative and active case counts and reported cumulative death counts, we compute the symmetric mean absolute prediction error (SMAPE) for each of the five models. For reported cumulative cases and deaths, we compute Pearson's and Lin's correlation coefficients to investigate how well the projected and observed reported counts agree. We also present underreporting factors when available, and comment on uncertainty of projections from each model. RESULTS: For active case counts, SMAPE values are 35.14% (SEIR-fansy) and 37.96% (eSIR). For cumulative case counts, SMAPE values are 6.89% (baseline), 6.59% (eSIR), 2.25% (SAPHIRE) and 2.29% (SEIR-fansy). For cumulative death counts, the SMAPE values are 4.74% (SEIR-fansy), 8.94% (eSIR) and 0.77% (ICM). Three models (SAPHIRE, SEIR-fansy and ICM) return total (sum of reported and unreported) cumulative case counts as well. We compute underreporting factors as of October 31 and note that for cumulative cases, the SEIR-fansy model yields an underreporting factor of 7.25 and ICM model yields 4.54 for the same quantity. For total (sum of reported and unreported) cumulative deaths the SEIR-fansy model reports an underreporting factor of 2.97. On October 31, we observe 8.18 million cumulative reported cases, while the projections (in millions) from the baseline model are 8.71 (95% credible interval: 8.63-8.80), while eSIR yields 8.35 (7.19-9.60), SAPHIRE returns 8.17 (7.90-8.52) and SEIR-fansy projects 8.51 (8.18-8.85) million cases. Cumulative case projections from the eSIR model have the highest uncertainty in terms of width of 95% credible intervals, followed by those from SAPHIRE, the baseline model and finally SEIR-fansy. CONCLUSIONS: In this comparative paper, we describe five different models used to study the transmission dynamics of the SARS-Cov-2 virus in India. While simulation studies are the only gold standard way to compare the accuracy of the models, here we were uniquely poised to compare the projected case-counts against observed data on a test period. The largest variability across models is observed in predicting the "total" number of infections including reported and unreported cases (on which we have no validation data). The degree of under-reporting has been a major concern in India and is characterized in this report. Overall, the SEIR-fansy model appeared to be a good choice with publicly available R-package and desired flexibility plus accuracy.

The trans-ancestral genomic architecture of glycemic traits.

Glycemic traits are used to diagnose and monitor type 2 diabetes and cardiometabolic health. To date, most genetic studies of glycemic traits have focused on individuals of European ancestry. Here we aggregated genome-wide association studies comprising up to 281,416 individuals without diabetes (30% non-European ancestry) for whom fasting glucose, 2-h glucose after an oral glucose challenge, glycated hemoglobin and fasting insulin data were available. Trans-ancestry and single-ancestry meta-analyses identified 242 loci (99 novel; P < 5 × 10-8), 80% of which had no significant evidence of between-ancestry heterogeneity. Analyses restricted to individuals of European ancestry with equivalent sample size would have led to 24 fewer new loci. Compared with single-ancestry analyses, equivalent-sized trans-ancestry fine-mapping reduced the number of estimated variants in 99% credible sets by a median of 37.5%. Genomic-feature, gene-expression and gene-set analyses revealed distinct biological signatures for each trait, highlighting different underlying biological pathways. Our results increase our understanding of diabetes pathophysiology by using trans-ancestry studies for improved power and resolution.

Detecting Gene-Environment Interaction for Maternal Exposures Using Case-Parent Trios Ascertained Through a Case With Non-Syndromic Orofacial Cleft.

Two large studies of case-parent trios ascertained through a proband with a non-syndromic orofacial cleft (OFC, which includes cleft lip and palate, cleft lip alone, or cleft palate alone) were used to test for possible gene-environment (G × E) interaction between genome-wide markers (both observed and imputed) and self-reported maternal exposure to smoking, alcohol consumption, and multivitamin supplementation during pregnancy. The parent studies were as follows: GENEVA, which included 1,939 case-parent trios recruited largely through treatment centers in Europe, the United States, and Asia, and 1,443 case-parent trios from the Pittsburgh Orofacial Cleft Study (POFC) also ascertained through a proband with an OFC including three major racial/ethnic groups (European, Asian, and Latin American). Exposure rates to these environmental risk factors (maternal smoking, alcohol consumption, and multivitamin supplementation) varied across studies and among racial/ethnic groups, creating substantial differences in power to detect G × E interaction, but the trio design should minimize spurious results due to population stratification. The GENEVA and POFC studies were analyzed separately, and a meta-analysis was conducted across both studies to test for G × E interaction using the 2 df test of gene and G × E interaction and the 1 df test for G × E interaction alone. The 2 df test confirmed effects for several recognized risk genes, suggesting modest G × E effects. This analysis did reveal suggestive evidence for G × Vitamin interaction for CASP9 on 1p36 located about 3 Mb from PAX7, a recognized risk gene. Several regions gave suggestive evidence of G × E interaction in the 1 df test. For example, for G × Smoking interaction, the 1 df test suggested markers in MUSK on 9q31.3 from meta-analysis. Markers near SLCO3A1 also showed suggestive evidence in the 1 df test for G × Alcohol interaction, and rs41117 near RETREG1 (a.k.a. FAM134B) also gave suggestive significance in the meta-analysis of the 1 df test for G × Vitamin interaction. While it remains quite difficult to obtain definitive evidence for G × E interaction in genome-wide studies, perhaps due to small effect sizes of individual genes combined with low exposure rates, this analysis of two large case-parent trio studies argues for considering possible G × E interaction in any comprehensive study of complex and heterogeneous disorders such as OFC.

Incorporating false negative tests in epidemiological models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and reconciling with seroprevalence estimates.

Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR)-type epidemiologic models, modeling unascertained infections latently, can predict unreported cases and deaths assuming perfect testing. We apply a method we developed to account for the high false negative rates of diagnostic RT-PCR tests for detecting an active SARS-CoV-2 infection in a classic SEIR model. The number of unascertained cases and false negatives being unobservable in a real study, population-based serosurveys can help validate model projections. Applying our method to training data from Delhi, India, during March 15-June 30, 2020, we estimate the underreporting factor for cases at 34-53 (deaths: 8-13) on July 10, 2020, largely consistent with the findings of the first round of serosurveys for Delhi (done during June 27-July 10, 2020) with an estimated 22.86% IgG antibody prevalence, yielding estimated underreporting factors of 30-42 for cases. Together, these imply approximately 96-98% cases in Delhi remained unreported (July 10, 2020). Updated calculations using training data during March 15-December 31, 2020 yield estimated underreporting factor for cases at 13-22 (deaths: 3-7) on January 23, 2021, which are again consistent with the latest (fifth) round of serosurveys for Delhi (done during January 15-23, 2021) with an estimated 56.13% IgG antibody prevalence, yielding an estimated range for the underreporting factor for cases at 17-21. Together, these updated estimates imply approximately 92-96% cases in Delhi remained unreported (January 23, 2021). Such model-based estimates, updated with latest data, provide a viable alternative to repeated resource-intensive serosurveys for tracking unreported cases and deaths and gauging the true extent of the pandemic.