A network meta-analysis of KarXT and commonly used pharmacological interventions for schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Dopaminergic antipsychotics for schizophrenia have modest effects on symptoms and can cause important side effects. KarXT is an investigational drug for schizophrenia with a novel mechanism targeting muscarinic receptors that may limit these side effects. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and Bayesian random-effects network meta-analyses of short-term RCTs (3-8 weeks) that enrolled adults with schizophrenia. We compared KarXT to aripiprazole, risperidone, and olanzapine. We sought evidence for symptoms (Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale [PANSS]), weight gain, and all-cause discontinuation. RESULTS: We included 33 trials with 7193 participants. For total, positive, and negative symptoms, KarXT and the three antipsychotics were significantly more efficacious than placebo (mean difference [MD] vs placebo range for total symptoms: -10.67 to -8.05; positive symptoms: -3.46 to -2.53; negative symptoms: -1.99 to -1.44) but not significantly different from each other. KarXT was ranked as least likely to lead to weight gain. This was significant versus risperidone (-2.06 kg; 95 % CrI: -3.28, -0.87) and olanzapine (-2.86 kg; 95 % CrI: -3.97, -1.82). However, KarXT was ranked highest for all-cause discontinuation. This was significant versus risperidone (RR: 0.64; 95 % CrI: 0.46, 0.89) and olanzapine (RR: 0.6; 95 % CrI: 0.44, 0.83). CONCLUSIONS: KarXT and commonly used antipsychotics were more efficacious than placebo at reducing symptoms, but there were no clear differences in short-term efficacy among the active interventions. KarXT was less likely to cause weight gain, an important outcome for those with schizophrenia; short-term data do not permit evaluation of the risk for tardive dyskinesia. Long-term data are needed.

The impact of capping health system cost savings on the projected cost-effectiveness of etranacogene dezaparvovec compared with factor IX prophylaxis for the treatment of hemophilia B.

This viewpoint discusses cost-effectiveness estimates for EtranaDez, a gene therapy for hemophilia B, using the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's (ICER) framework for single and short-term therapies (SSTs). EtranaDez offers long-term benefits from a single administration, in contrast to the high costs and frequent dosing required by current factor IX prophylaxis. However, the projected gains in health from EtranaDez are small relative to the cost implications of the therapy, and consequently, how the cost offsets associated with EtranaDez are counted has a substantial impact on assessing its cost-effectiveness. Strategies for assessing cost offsets used in the ICER SST framework include a 50/50 cost-sharing model between the health care system and the manufacturer and a cap of $150,000 annually on health care cost offsets. Results from the standard full cost-offset analysis as reported by ICER depicted EtranaDez as a dominant therapy with substantial cost savings compared with factor IX prophylaxis. However, while considering the ICER SST framework, particularly the $150,000 annual cap scenario, the cost-effectiveness was significantly reduced. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio varied notably between these scenarios, challenging the conventional perception of value of gene therapy in health care. These cost-sharing scenarios highlight the potential of the ICER SST framework to help curtail inefficient health care spending. In cases in which the cost of existing treatment is exceedingly high, the application of such frameworks would improve efficiency in resource allocation, fostering a balance between incentives for innovation and economic sustainability in managed care systems.

Informing the United States Medicare Drug Price Negotiation for Apixaban and Rivaroxaban: Methodological Considerations for Value Assessments Many Years After Launch.

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate how health technology assessment methods can be used to support Medicare's price negotiations for apixaban and rivaroxaban. METHODS: Following the statutory outline of evidence that will be considered by Medicare, we conducted a systematic literature review, network meta-analyses, and decision analyses to evaluate the health outcomes and costs associated with apixaban and rivaroxaban compared with warfarin and dabigatran for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Our methods inform discussions about the therapeutic impact of apixaban and rivaroxaban and suggest price premiums above their therapeutic alternatives over a range of cost-effectiveness thresholds. RESULTS: Network meta-analyses found apixaban resulted in a lower risk of major bleeding compared with warfarin and dabigatran and a lower risk of stroke/systemic embolism compared with warfarin but not compared with dabigatran. Rivaroxaban resulted in a lower risk of stroke/systemic embolism versus warfarin but not dabigatran, and there was no difference in major bleeding. Decision-analytic modeling of apixaban suggested annual price premiums up to $4350 above the price of warfarin and up to $530 above the price for dabigatran at cost-effectiveness thresholds up to $200 000 per equal value of life-years gained. Analyses of rivaroxaban showed an annual price premium of up to $3920 above warfarin and no premium above that paid for dabigatran. CONCLUSIONS: Although health technology assessment is typically performed near the time of regulatory approval, with modifications, we produced comparative clinical and relative cost-effectiveness findings to help guide negotiations on a "fair" price for drugs on the market for over a decade.

The FDA and Gene Therapy for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.

This Viewpoint examines the appropriateness of FDA accelerated approval of novel gene therapies to treat boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy following clinical trials with surrogate outcomes that did not demonstrate net benefits.

How Do the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's Assessments of Comparative Effectiveness Compare With the German Federal Joint Committee's Assessments of Added Benefit? A Qualitative Study.

OBJECTIVES: We compared the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's (ICER) ratings of comparative clinical effectiveness with the German Federal Joint Committee's (G-BA) added benefit ratings, and explored what factors may explain the disagreement between the 2 organizations. METHODS: We included drugs if they were assessed by ICER under its 2020 to 2023 Value Assessment Framework and had a corresponding assessment by G-BA as of January 2024 for the same indication, patient population, and comparator drug. To compare assessments, we modified ICER's proposed crosswalk between G-BA and ICER benefit ratings to account for G-BA's certainty ratings. We also determined whether each pair was based on similar evidence. Assessment pairs exhibiting disagreement based on the modified crosswalk despite a similar evidence base were qualitatively analyzed to identify reasons for disagreement. RESULTS: Out of 15 drug assessment pairs matched on indication, patient subgroup, and comparator, none showed agreement in their assessments when based on similar evidence. Disagreement was attributed to differences in evidence evaluation, including evaluations of safety, generalizability, and study design, as well as G-BA's rejection of the available evidence in 4 cases as unsuitable. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that even under conditions where populations and comparators are identical and the evidence base is consistent, different assessors may arrive at divergent conclusions about comparative effectiveness, thus underscoring the presence of value judgments within assessments of clinical effectiveness. To support initiatives that seek to facilitate the exchange of value assessments between countries, these value judgments should always be transparently presented and justified in assessment summaries.

Gene therapies for sickle cell disease: Effectiveness and value.

DISCLOSURES: Drs. Nikitin, McKenna, Rind, Nhan, and Pearson report grants from Arnold Ventures, grants from Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA, grants from California Healthcare Foundation, grants from The Commonwealth Fund, grants from The Patrick and Catherine Weldon Donaghue Medical Research Foundation, during the conduct of the study; other from America's Health Insurance Plans, other from Anthem, other from AbbVie, other from Alnylam, other from AstraZeneca, other from Biogen, other from Blue Shield of CA, other from CVS, other from Editas, other from Express Scripts, other from Genentech/Roche, other from GlaxoSmithKline, other from Harvard Pilgrim, other from Health Care Service Corporation, other from Kaiser Permanente, other from LEO Pharma, other from Mallinckrodt, other from Merck, other from Novartis, other from National Pharmaceutical Council, other from Premera, other from Prime Therapeutics, other from Regeneron, other from Sanofi, other from United Healthcare, other from HealthFirst, other from Pfizer, other from Boehringer-Ingelheim, other from uniQure, other from Envolve Pharmacy Solutions, other from Humana, other from Sunlife, outside the submitted work.

GRADE concept 6: a novel application of external indirect evidence into GRADE ratings of evidence certainty in network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We describe how consideration of external evidence may play an important role in judging certainty in the process of establishing the certainty of the evidence. Our example is a network meta-analysis (NMA) addressing treatment for Ebola virus disease, which informed a World Health Organization guideline. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Through Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) project group iterative online, in-person and email discussions, we developed this GRADE concept and obtained approval from the GRADE working group. Using the null as a threshold, we rated our certainty for network estimates in mortality, including consideration of evidence external to the NMA (i.e., did not meet eligibility criteria) and formal logical construction. RESULTS: Based on the existing GRADE guidance, we rated the network estimate for one indirect comparison as low certainty. The formal logical construction that lead us reevaluate the certainty of the evidence is as follows: if A is superior to B, and B is not inferior to C, then A must be superior to C. After considering the logic and the external indirect evidence, we concluded at least moderate certainty for the comparison. CONCLUSION: Systematic review authors and guideline developers should apply the fundamental logical construction for indirect comparisons and consider compelling external evidence in NMA certainty ratings.

Grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation concept article 5: addressing intransitivity in a network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This article describes considerations for addressing intransitivity when assessing the certainty of the evidence from network meta-analysis (NMA) using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Intransitivity is induced by effect modification, that is, when the magnitude of the effect between an intervention and outcome differs depending on the level of another factor. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: To develop this GRADE concept paper, the lead authors conducted iterative discussions, computer simulations, and presentations to the GRADE project group and at GRADE working group meetings. The GRADE Working Group formally approved the article in July 2022. RESULTS: NMA authors can have a higher or a lower threshold to rate down the certainty of the evidence due to intransitivity, which depends on the extent of their concerns regarding the trustworthiness of indirect comparisons, and their view of the relative problems with rating down excessively or insufficiently. NMA authors should consider three main factors when addressing intransitivity: the credibility of effect modification, the strength of the effect modification, and the distribution of effect modifiers across the direct comparisons. To avoid double counting limitations of the evidence, authors should consider the relationship between intransitivity and other GRADE domains. CONCLUSION: NMA authors face theoretic and pragmatic challenges and in most situations need to assess intransitivity without the availability of empirical data. Thus, explicitness regarding perspective is crucial.

Evaluation of Diversity of Clinical Trials Informing Health Technology Assessments in the United States: A 5-Year Analysis of Institute for Clinical and Economic Review Assessments.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the diversity of clinical trials informing assessments conducted by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of pivotal trials included in completed Institute for Clinical and Economic Review assessments over 5 years (2017-2021). Representation of racial/ethnic minority groups, females, and older adults was compared with the disease-specific and US population, using a relative representation cutoff of 0.8 for adequate representation. RESULTS: A total of 208 trials, evaluating 112 interventions for 31 unique conditions, were examined. Race/ethnicity data were inconsistently reported. The median participant-to-disease representative ratio (PDRR) for Blacks/African Americans (0.43 [interquartile range (IQR) 0.24-0.75]), American Indians/Alaska Natives (0.37 [IQR 0.09-0.77]), and Hispanics/Latinos (0.79 [IQR 0.30-1.22]) were below the adequate representation cutoff. In contrast, Whites (1.06 [IQR 0.92-1.2]), Asians (1.71 [IQR 0.50-3.75]), and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islanders (1.61 [IQR 0.77-2.81]) were adequately represented. Findings were similar when compared with the US Census, except for Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders, which was substantially worse. Relative to all trials, a higher proportion of US-based trials adequately represented Blacks/African Americans (61% vs 23%, P < .0001) and Hispanics/Latinos (68% vs 50%; P = .047), but a lower proportion adequately represented Asians (15% vs 67%, P < .0001). Females were adequately represented in 74% of trials (PDRR: 1.02 [IQR 0.79-1.14]). Nevertheless, older adults were adequately represented in only 20% of trials (PDRR: 0.30 [IQR 0.13-0.64]). CONCLUSIONS: The representation of racial/ethnic minorities and older adults was inadequate. Efforts are needed to enhance the diversity of clinical trials. Standardized and transparent evaluation of trial diversity should be part of the health technology assessment process.

The effectiveness and value of gene therapy for hemophilia: A Summary from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's California Technology Assessment Forum.

DISCLOSURES: Dr Tice and Mr Sarker received ICER grants during the conduct of the study. Dr Moradi, Ms Herce-Hagiwara, Dr Faghim, Dr Agboola, Dr Rind, and Dr Pearson reports grants from Arnold Ventures, grants from Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA, grants from California Healthcare Foundation, grants from The Commonwealth Fund, grants from The Peterson Center on Healthcare, during the conduct of the study; other from Aetna, other from America's Health Insurance Plans, other from Anthem, other from AbbVie, other from Alnylam, other from AstraZeneca, other from Biogen, other from Blue Shield of CA, other from Cambia Health Services, other from CVS, other from Editas, other from Express Scripts, other from Genentech/Roche, other from GlaxoSmithKline, other from Harvard Pilgrim, other from Health Care Service Corporation, other from Health Partners, other from Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), other from Kaiser Permanente, other from LEO Pharma, other from Mallinckrodt, other from Merck, other from Novartis, other from National Pharmaceutical Council, other from Premera, other from Prime Therapeutics, other from Regeneron, other from Sanofi, other from Spark Therapeutics, other from United Healthcare, other from HealthFirst, other from Pfizer, other from Boehringer-Ingelheim, other from uniQure, other from Evolve Pharmacy Solutions, other from Humana, other from Sun Life, outside the submitted work.

The effectiveness and value of AMX0035 and oral edaravone for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A summary from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's Midwest Comparative Effectiveness Public Advisory Council.

DISCLOSURES: Funding for this summary was contributed by Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA, California Healthcare Foundation, The Patrick and Catherine Weldon Donaghue Medical Research Foundation, Arnold Ventures, and Kaiser Foundation Health Plan Inc., to the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), an independent organization that evaluates the evidence on the value of health care interventions. ICER's annual policy summit is supported by dues from Aetna, America's Health Insurance Plans, AbbVie, Alnylam, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Blue Shield of CA, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cambia Health Services, CVS, Editas, Evolve Pharmacy Solutions, Express Scripts, Genentech/ Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Harvard Pilgrim, Health Care Service Corporation, Health First, Health Partners, Humana, Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), Kaiser Permanente, LEO Pharma, Mallinckrodt, Merck, Novartis, National Pharmaceutical Council, Pfizer. Premera, Prime Therapeutics, Regeneron, Sanofi, Spark Therapeutics, Sun Life Financial, uniQure, and United Healthcare. Mr Nikitin, Ms McKenna, Ms Richardson, and Drs Rind and Pearson are employed by ICER. Through their affiliated institutions, Drs Makam, Carlson, and Suh received funding from ICER for the work described in this summary.

Cost-Effectiveness of Nadofaragene Firadenovec and Pembrolizumab in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Immunotherapy Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Nadofaragene firadenovec is a gene therapy for bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) undergoing Food and Drug Administration review. Pembrolizumab is approved for treating patients with BCG-unresponsive NMIBC with carcinoma in situ (CIS). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of these treatments compared with a hypothetical therapeutic alternative, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, in CIS and non-CIS BCG-unresponsive NMIBC populations. METHODS: We developed a Markov cohort simulation model with a 3-month cycle length and lifetime horizon to estimate the total costs, QALYs, and cost per additional QALY from the health sector perspective. Clinical inputs were informed by results of single-arm clinical trials evaluating the treatments, and systematic literature reviews were conducted to obtain other model inputs. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty in model results. RESULTS: Nadofaragene firadenovec, at a placeholder price 10% higher than the price of pembrolizumab, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $263 000 and $145 000 per QALY gained in CIS and non-CIS populations, respectively. Pembrolizumab had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $168 000 per QALY gained for CIS. A 5.4% reduction in pembrolizumab's price would make it cost-effective. The model was sensitive to many inputs, especially to the probabilities of disease progression, initial treatment response and durability, and drug price. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of nadofaragene firadenovec will depend upon its price. Pembrolizumab, although not cost-effective in our base-case analysis, is an important alternative in this population with an unmet medical need. Comparative trials of these treatments are warranted to better estimate cost-effectiveness.