A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe.

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and Norway, where the lack of data did not allow for conclusive analysis. The constructed model was capable of predicting the SPI with correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.9 for some stations, odds ratio is infinitely high for 50% of sites inside the region and the fraction of prediction falling within factor of 2 from observations, stays within 40-70%. In particular, model successfully reproduced both the bi-annual cycle of the SPI and years when this cycle breaks down.

Air pollution by allergenic spores of the genus Alternaria in the air of central and eastern Europe.

Spores of the genus Alternaria belong to one of the most prevailing constituents of the air in all regions of the world. They form infectious inoculum of numerous plant species as well as severe inhaled allergies. The aim of this study was to compare the biological pollution with Alternaria spores of the air of 12 cities located in central and eastern Europe. The experiment was done in 2010 and it covered the territory of Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Poland (PL) and Ukraine (UA). The spores were counted using an identical method and standard equipment (7-day Lanzoni volumetric sampler) followed by extensive statistical calculations. The timing of the day of maximum concentration changed mainly along the N-S direction and had a positive correlation with latitude. The most important factor determining the increase in Alternaria spore concentration was the temperature, whereas other weather parameters were not related or of low significance. Regardless of geographical location, the first phase of the season (0-0.9 % of Alternaria spores in the air) was the longest (up to 60 days) and the last (97.5 to 99 %) was the shortest (22 days or less). The means of daily concentrations of Alternaria spores ranged from 11 spores m(-3) in Klaipeda (LT, Baltic Sea coast) to 187 in Poznan (west PL, agricultural plain). The threshold value of 80 spores m(-3) that triggers the first allergy symptoms was exceeded in 8 to 86 days (Vinnitsa, UA, temperate continental, forest-steppes region). There were considerable differences between the highest number of spores per cubic metre of air, varying from 139 in the north (Klaipeda, LT) to 2,295 in central west (Poznan, PL). The biological pollution by Alternaria spores in several places of central and eastern Europe was high; the number of days exceeding the threshold value of 300 spores m(-3) connected with serious health problems of atopic people ranged from 0 to 1 on the north (LV, LT) to 29 in central west (Poznan, PL).