Bayesian analysis suggests independent development of sensitization to different fungal allergens.

Background: Fungi are known for their ability to cause allergies, but data on individual sensitization to them are insufficient. The purpose of the study was to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the fungal allergens' sensitization profile in the Ukrainian population and to determine both population and individual sensitivity to these allergens. Methods: We utilized a set of ALEX allergy test data from 20,033 inhabitants of 17 regions of Ukraine from 1 to 89 years conducted in 2020-2022. A complex of programs in the Python language was developed and Bayesian network analysis was applied to determine the sensitivity combinations in individual patients to various fungal components. Results: Sensitivity to Alt a 1 dominated and was observed in 79.39% of patients, and 62.17% of them were sensitive solely to Alt a 1. Exclusive sensitivity to Mala s 6 was second in individual patient profiles with a frequency of 4.06%. Combined sensitivity to Alt a 1 - Asp f 3 was third with a share of 3.28%. Pen ch and Cla h extracts stimulated the production of the lowest median sIgE levels. The highest median sIgE levels were for Alt a 1, Mala s 11 and Asp f 6, respectively. Median sIgE levels increased in adults compared to children for all components of Aspergillus fumigatus, as well as for Mala s 5 and Mala s 11. In the rest of the cases, they decreased in adults compared to children. The sensitization rates to fungi in general and specifically to Alternaria were lower in the western parts of Ukraine, especially in the Carpathian region, situated within the Broad-leaved Forest zone. The results of Bayesian modeling revealed that in the case of Alt a 1, the simultaneous absence of sensitivity to Cla h 8, Mala s 11, Mala s 5 and Mala s 6 molecules could condition the presence of sensitization to the major Alternaria allergen with a probability of 92.42%. In all other cases, there was a high probability of absence of sensitivity to particular allergen against the background of absence of sensitivity to other ones, which may indicate the independent development of sensitization to different fungal allergens. Conclusions: Sensitivity to Alt a 1 dominated in the studied population with a lower rate in the western regions. The highest median sIgE levels were induced by Alt a 1, Mala s 11 and Asp f 6. Bayesian Analysis suggest a high probability of the independent development of sensitization to different fungal allergens. The idea that sensitization to one allergen may be protective against sensitization to another one(s) requires further clinical study.

Outdoor airborne allergens: Characterization, behavior and monitoring in Europe.

Aeroallergens or inhalant allergens, are proteins dispersed through the air and have the potential to induce allergic conditions such as rhinitis, conjunctivitis, and asthma. Outdoor aeroallergens are found predominantly in pollen grains and fungal spores, which are allergen carriers. Aeroallergens from pollen and fungi have seasonal emission patterns that correlate with plant pollination and fungal sporulation and are strongly associated with atmospheric weather conditions. They are released when allergen carriers come in contact with the respiratory system, e.g. the nasal mucosa. In addition, due to the rupture of allergen carriers, airborne allergen molecules may be released directly into the air in the form of micronic and submicronic particles (cytoplasmic debris, cell wall fragments, droplets etc.) or adhered onto other airborne particulate matter. Therefore, aeroallergen detection strategies must consider, in addition to the allergen carriers, the allergen molecules themselves. This review article aims to present the current knowledge on inhalant allergens in the outdoor environment, their structure, localization, and factors affecting their production, transformation, release or degradation. In addition, methods for collecting and quantifying aeroallergens are listed and thoroughly discussed. Finally, the knowledge gaps, challenges and implications associated with aeroallergen analysis are described.

A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Co-exposure to highly allergenic airborne pollen and fungal spores in Europe.

The study is aimed at determining the potential spatiotemporal risk of the co-occurrence of airborne pollen and fungal spores high concentrations in different bio-climatic zones in Europe. Birch, grass, mugwort, ragweed, olive pollen and Alternaria and Cladosporium fungal spores were investigated at 16 sites in Europe, in 2005-2019. In Central and northern Europe, pollen and fungal spore seasons mainly overlap in June and July, while in South Europe, the highest pollen concentrations occur frequently outside of the spore seasons. In the coldest climate, no allergy thresholds were exceeded simultaneously by two spore or pollen taxa, while in the warmest climate most of the days with at least two pollen taxa exceeding threshold values were observed. The annual air temperature amplitude seems to be the main bioclimatic factor influencing the accumulation of days in which Alternaria and Cladosporium spores simultaneously exceed allergy thresholds. The phenomenon of co-occurrence of airborne allergen concentrations gets increasingly common in Europe and is proposed to be present on other continents, especially in temperate climate.

Sensitization patterns to Poaceae pollen indicates a hierarchy in allergens and a lead of tropical grasses.

BACKGROUND: The allergenicity of pollen of Poaceae family members is a well-known and confirmed fact. Using the data of component-resolved molecular diagnostics of allergy, we set a goal to establish the population and individual characteristics of sensitization to grass pollen and assess the patterns of its development. METHODS: Multiplex allergy Alex2 test results of 20,033 patients were used. In addition to descriptive statistics to uncover traits of the sensitized population, statistical inference was utilized to establish the conditional probability of sensitisation, the nature of links between allergens, and the most frequent combinations of allergens in individual patient profiles. RESULTS: Sensitivity to grass pollen comprised 30.79% of the studied sample. Children accounted for 62.21%, adults-37.79%. Sensitisation to Phl p 1, Lol p 1, and Cyn d 1 was the most frequent in all age groups. Among them, Phl p 1 and Lol p 1 were the major ones. Phl p 2, Phl p 5.0101, and Phl p 6 were also responsible for primary sensitization; Phl p 5.0101 promoted the highest sIgE levels. A combination "Lol p 1-Phl p 1", where Lol p 1 might play a leading role, was most frequent in individual profiles. Monosensitization to Phl p 2 was the second most frequent and Bayesian Network suggested its independent development. Monosensitization to Cyn d 1, especially among children, may indicate the impact of climate change, promoting the spread of the subtropical grasses to the temperate region. CONCLUSIONS: Descriptive statistics and known clinical data coincide well with statistical inference results and can provide for new clinical insights.

Molecular sensitization pattern to house dust mites is formed from the first years of life and includes group 1, 2, Der p 23, Der p 5, Der p 7 and Der p 21 allergens.

BACKGROUND: As the process and nature of developing sensitivity to house dust mites (HDMs) remain not fully studied, our goal was to establish the pattern, nature and timeframe of house dust mite (HDM) sensitization development in patients in Ukraine as well as the period when treatment of such patients would be most effective. METHODS: The data of the multiplex allergy test Alex2 was collected from 20,033 patients. To determine age specifics of sensitization, descriptive statistics were used. Bayesian Network analysis was used to build probabilistic patterns of individual sensitization. RESULTS: Patients from Ukraine were most often sensitized to HDM allergens of group 1 (Der p 1, Der f 1) and group 2 (Der p 2, Der f 2) as well as to Der p 23 (55%). A considerable sensitivity to Der p 5, Der p 7 and Der p 21 allergens was also observed. The overall nature of sensitization to HDM allergens among the population of Ukraine is formed within the first year of life. By this time, there is a pronounced sensitization to HDM allergens of groups 1 and 2 as well as to Der p 23. Significance of sensitization to Der p 5, Der p 7 and Der p 21 allergens grows starting from the age of 3-6. Bayesian Network data analysis indicated the leading role of sensitization to Der p 1 and Der f 2. While developing the sensitivity to group 5 allergens, the leading role may belong to Der p 21 allergen. CONCLUSION: The results obtained indicate the importance of determining the sensitization profile using the multi-component approach. A more detailed study of the optimal age for AIT prescription is required as the pattern of sensitization to HDMs is formed during the first year of life.

Molecular Profile Sensitization to House Dust Mites as an Important Aspect for Predicting the Efficiency of Allergen Immunotherapy.

House dust mite (HDM) allergens are considered to be one of the most common causes of asthma and allergic rhinitis in the world. Cysteine proteases Der p 1 and Der f 1 (group 1) and also NPC 2 family proteins Der p 2 and Der f 2 (group 2) of D. pteronyssinus and D. farinae respectively are considered the main allergens of HDMs. The difference in the sensitivity of the population to these and other allergy causing components of HDM determines the treatment strategy. Thus, the purpose of this work was to determine the pattern of sensitization of the Ukrainian population to individual allergy causing molecular components of HDM in order to improve treatment strategies for the HDM allergy in various regions of Ukraine. To determine the molecular profile of sensitization to HDM, the data of multiplex allergy test Alex2 have been obtained from 10,651 patients. The sample included 57.86% children under the age of 18 and 42.14% adults. A Python language-based statistical analysis was performed, in order to group patients by sensitization to individual molecules and their combinations, regarding the age and geographical location of the patients. Simultaneous sensitization to Der f 2 and Der p 2 allergens was the most common among the entire group Simultaneous sensitization to 5 molecules-of group 1 (Der p 1 and Der f 1), group 2 (Der f 2 and Der p 2), and Der p 23-was the second most common for entire dataset and for the children group. This pattern differed in adults, where monosensitization to Der p 23 occupied the second position, suggesting that this molecule is an important factor of HDM allergy in Ukraine. Of the 16 analyzed regions, sensitization to Der p 23 prevailed in 2 Western regions of Ukraine. In the rest of the regions combination of Der p 2 and Der f 2 was the most prevalent. The established character of population sensitization to HDM in Ukraine is a good prognostic marker of allergen immunotherapy (AIT) efficacy.

Bioaerosols on the atmospheric super highway: An example of long distance transport of Alternaria spores from the Pannonian Plain to Poland.

Alternaria spores are pathogenic to agricultural crops, and the longest and the most severe sporulation seasons are predominantly recorded in rural areas, e.g. the Pannonian Plain (PP) in South-Central Europe. In Poland (Central Europe), airborne Alternaria spore concentrations peak between July and August. In this study, we test the hypothesis that the PP is the source of Alternaria spores recorded in Poland after the main sporulation season (September-October). Airborne Alternaria spores (2005-2019) were collected using volumetric Hirst spore traps located in 38 locations along the potential pathways of air masses, i.e. from Serbia, Romania and Hungary, through the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine, to Northern Poland. Three potential episodes of Long Distance Transport (LDT) were selected and characterized in detail, including the analysis of Alternaria spore data, back trajectory analysis, dispersal modelling, and description of local weather and mesoscale synoptic conditions. During selected episodes, increases in Alternaria spore concentrations in Poznan were recorded at unusual times that deviated from the typical diurnal pattern, i.e. at night or during morning hours. Alternaria spore concentrations on the PP were very high (>1000 spores/m3) at that time. The presence of non-local Ambrosia pollen, common to the PP, were also observed in the air. Air mass trajectory analysis and dispersal modelling showed that the northwest part of the PP, north of the Transdanubian Mountains, was the potential source area of Alternaria spores. Our results show that Alternaria spores are transported over long distances from the PP to Poland. These spores may markedly increase local exposure to Alternaria spores in the receptor area and pose a risk to both human and plant health. Alternaria spores followed the same atmospheric route as previously described LDT ragweed pollen, revealing the existence of an atmospheric super highway that transports bioaerosols from the south to the north of Europe.

Abundance of Ganoderma sp. in Europe and SW Asia: modelling the pathogen infection levels in local trees using the proxy of airborne fungal spore concentrations.

Ganoderma comprises a common bracket fungal genus that causes basal stem rot in deciduous and coniferous trees and palms, thus having a large economic impact on forestry production. We estimated pathogen abundance using long-term, daily spore concentration data collected in five biogeographic regions in Europe and SW Asia. We hypothesized that pathogen abundance in the air depends on the density of potential hosts (trees) in the surrounding area, and that its spores originate locally. We tested this hypothesis by (1) calculating tree cover density, (2) assessing the impact of local meteorological variables on spore concentration, (3) computing back trajectories, (4) developing random forest models predicting daily spore concentration. The area covered by trees was calculated based on Tree Density Datasets within a 30 km radius from sampling sites. Variations in daily and seasonal spore concentrations were cross-examined between sites using a selection of statistical tools including HYSPLIT and random forest models. Our results showed that spore concentrations were higher in Northern and Central Europe than in South Europe and SW Asia. High and unusually high spore concentrations (> 90th and > 98th percentile, respectively) were partially associated with long distance transported spores: at least 33% of Ganoderma spores recorded in Madeira during days with high concentrations originated from the Iberian Peninsula located >900 km away. Random forest models developed on local meteorological data performed better in sites where the contribution of long distance transported spores was lower. We found that high concentrations were recorded in sites with low host density (Leicester, Worcester), and low concentrations in Kastamonu with high host density. This suggests that south European and SW Asian forests may be less severely affected by Ganoderma. This study highlights the effectiveness of monitoring airborne Ganoderma spore concentrations as a tool for assessing local Ganoderma pathogen infection levels.

High Ambrosia pollen concentrations in Poland respecting the long distance transport (LDT).

High Ambrosia pollen concentrations in Poland rather rarely come from the local sources. The aim of this study was to define the temporal and spatial differences of the high Ambrosia pollen concentrations by creating models for the pollen transport from the distant sources. This study was thought to determine the direction of the air masses inflow into Poland, carrying Ambrosia pollen, from areas of the bordering countries with the pollen concentrations higher than iSTOTEN_n Poland. Pollen and meteorological datasets at 8 monitoring sites in Poland, and daily pollen concentrations at 11 sites in the Czech Republic, 5 sites in Slovakia and 3 sites in Ukraine were analysed recently. Days with concentrations ≥10 Pollen/m3 and concurrent meteorological situations were analysed in great deal. The HYSPLIT model was applied to compute backward trajectories up to 4 days backward (96 h) and at three altitudes: 20, 500 and 1000 m above ground level (a.g.l.). High pollen concentrations occur most frequently when the air masses inflow into Poland from southerly (S, SE, SW, 44%) and easterly (E, 6%) directions and in no advection situations (25%). In years with the highest frequency of days over 10 Pollen/m3, the prevailing directions of the pollen influx into Poland were from the South (2004-2006, 2008, 2011) but in one year (2014) from the East. Trajectories for the studied period show that air masses come most frequently from Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Sometimes, the Ambrosia pollen transport happens from Ukraine.

Airborne Alternaria and Cladosporium fungal spores in Europe: Forecasting possibilities and relationships with meteorological parameters.

Airborne fungal spores are prevalent components of bioaerosols with a large impact on ecology, economy and health. Their major socioeconomic effects could be reduced by accurate and timely prediction of airborne spore concentrations. The main aim of this study was to create and evaluate models of Alternaria and Cladosporium spore concentrations based on data on a continental scale. Additional goals included assessment of the level of generalization of the models spatially and description of the main meteorological factors influencing fungal spore concentrations. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out at 18 sites in six countries across Europe over 3 to 21 years depending on site. Quantile random forest modelling was used to predict spore concentrations. Generalization of the Alternaria and Cladosporium models was tested using (i) one model for all the sites, (ii) models for groups of sites, and (iii) models for individual sites. The study revealed the possibility of reliable prediction of fungal spore levels using gridded meteorological data. The classification models also showed the capacity for providing larger scale predictions of fungal spore concentrations. Regression models were distinctly less accurate than classification models due to several factors, including measurement errors and distinct day-to-day changes of concentrations. Temperature and vapour pressure proved to be the most important variables in the regression and classification models of Alternaria and Cladosporium spore concentrations. Accurate and operational daily-scale predictive models of bioaerosol abundances contribute to the assessment and evaluation of relevant exposure and consequently more timely and efficient management of phytopathogenic and of human allergic diseases.

Allergenic weed pollen forecast under the mathematical modeling method implementation in ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: Introduction: Allergies are the most common reason of the chronic diseases in developed countries and represent an important medical, social and economic issue, the relevance of which is growing both in these countries and in Ukraine. The most famous of these allergens group is the pollen of ambrosia and pollen of poaceae, which are ubiquitously distributed in the subtropical and temperate climate. The aim: The objective of our study was to develop the mathematical models, which will be able to indicate the probability of the pollen circulation, and thus these models can simplify the forecast of symptoms risk and improve the prophylaxis of pollinosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: The research was conducted on the basis of the research center of National Pirogov Memorial Medical University, Vinnytsia in the years 2012-2014. A volumetric sampler of the Hirst type was used for the air sampling. The observation was conducted from the first of April to the thirty-first of October. For the initial preparation of the tables and intermediate calculations, Excel software package was used. The software STATISTICA 10.0 was applied to calculate the average coefficients values and their statistical characteristics (beta-values, errors of the mean values, Student's t-test, veracity and the factors percentage contribution into the function variation). RESULTS: Results: Statistically significant correlation between pollen concentrations of herbaceous plants and individual meteorological factors was found; classificational functions were designed by which it is possible to calculate the probability of presence or absence of Artemisia pollen in the atmosphere; the risks of increasing of the Artemisia pollen concentration are determined under exceeding of the critical temperature of 18°Ð¡, relative humidity of 67% and atmospheric pressure of 980 Pa. CONCLUSION: Conclusions. The results of the research can be used to predict the emission of potentially hazardous concentrations of weed pollen grains in the atmosphere of the central region of Ukraine using the weather forecast.

Dew point temperature affects ascospore release of allergenic genus Leptosphaeria.

The genus Leptosphaeria contains numerous fungi that cause the symptoms of asthma and also parasitize wild and crop plants. In search of a robust and universal forecast model, the ascospore concentration in air was measured and weather data recorded from 1 March to 31 October between 2006 and 2012. The experiment was conducted in three European countries of the temperate climate, i.e., Ukraine, Poland, and the UK. Out of over 150 forecast models produced using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multivariate regression trees (MRTs), we selected the best model for each site, as well as for joint two-site combinations. The performance of all computed models was tested against records from 1 year which had not been used for model construction. The statistical analysis of the fungal spore data was supported by a comprehensive study of both climate and land cover within a 30-km radius from the air sampler location. High-performance forecasting models were obtained for individual sites, showing that the local micro-climate plays a decisive role in biology of the fungi. Based on the previous epidemiological studies, we hypothesized that dew point temperature (DPT) would be a critical factor in the models. The impact of DPT was confirmed only by one of the final best neural models, but the MRT analyses, similarly to the Spearman's rank test, indicated the importance of DPT in all but one of the studied cases and in half of them ranked it as a fundamental factor. This work applies artificial neural modeling to predict the Leptosphaeria airborne spore concentration in urban areas for the first time.

Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion risk and provide useful guidance for management strategies to reduce the impacts of invasion.

Air pollution by allergenic spores of the genus Alternaria in the air of central and eastern Europe.

Spores of the genus Alternaria belong to one of the most prevailing constituents of the air in all regions of the world. They form infectious inoculum of numerous plant species as well as severe inhaled allergies. The aim of this study was to compare the biological pollution with Alternaria spores of the air of 12 cities located in central and eastern Europe. The experiment was done in 2010 and it covered the territory of Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Poland (PL) and Ukraine (UA). The spores were counted using an identical method and standard equipment (7-day Lanzoni volumetric sampler) followed by extensive statistical calculations. The timing of the day of maximum concentration changed mainly along the N-S direction and had a positive correlation with latitude. The most important factor determining the increase in Alternaria spore concentration was the temperature, whereas other weather parameters were not related or of low significance. Regardless of geographical location, the first phase of the season (0-0.9 % of Alternaria spores in the air) was the longest (up to 60 days) and the last (97.5 to 99 %) was the shortest (22 days or less). The means of daily concentrations of Alternaria spores ranged from 11 spores m(-3) in Klaipeda (LT, Baltic Sea coast) to 187 in Poznan (west PL, agricultural plain). The threshold value of 80 spores m(-3) that triggers the first allergy symptoms was exceeded in 8 to 86 days (Vinnitsa, UA, temperate continental, forest-steppes region). There were considerable differences between the highest number of spores per cubic metre of air, varying from 139 in the north (Klaipeda, LT) to 2,295 in central west (Poznan, PL). The biological pollution by Alternaria spores in several places of central and eastern Europe was high; the number of days exceeding the threshold value of 300 spores m(-3) connected with serious health problems of atopic people ranged from 0 to 1 on the north (LV, LT) to 29 in central west (Poznan, PL).