Last-Century Forest Dynamics in a Highland Pyrenean National Park and Implications for Conservation.

Ecological records from before and after the creation of natural parks are valuable for informing conservation and management but are often unavailable. High-resolution paleoecological studies may bridge the gap and provide the required information. This paper presents a 20th-century subdecadal reconstruction of vegetation and landscape dynamics in a national park of the Pyrenean highlands. The park lands had traditionally been used for cultivation, extensive grazing, forest exploitation, and hydroelectricity generation following the damming of numerous glacial lakes. A significant finding is that forests have dominated the landscape, with negligible changes in composition, and only experienced fluctuations in forest cover, influenced by both climatic and anthropogenic factors. The creation of the park (1955) and the initial restrictions on forest exploitation did not significantly affect vegetation cover or composition. Major forest expansion did not occur until several decades later, 1980, when the park was enlarged and forest exploitation was further restricted. This expansion peaked in the 1990s, coinciding with a warming trend and a decrease in fire incidence, before declining due to warmer and drier climates. This decline was coeval with the ongoing global forest dieback and may be exacerbated by the predicted global warming in this century, which could also increase fire incidence due to dead-wood accumulation. Currently, the main threats are global warming/drying, fire, and tourism intensification. Similar high-resolution paleoecological records in protected areas are globally scarce and would be capable in providing the long-term ecological scope required to properly understand forest dynamics and optimize conservation measures.

An Updated Review of Fossil Pollen Evidence for the Study of the Origin, Evolution and Diversification of Caribbean Mangroves.

Recently, the evolutionary history of the Caribbean mangroves has been reconsidered using partial palynological databases organized by the time intervals of interest, namely Late Cretaceous to Eocene for the origin, the Eocene-Oligocene transition for major turnover and Neogene to Quaternary for diversification. These discussions have been published in a set of sequential papers, but the raw information remains unknown. This paper reviews all the information available and provides the first comprehensive and updated compilation of the abovementioned partial databases. This compilation is called CARMA-F (CARibbean MAngroves-Fossil) and includes nearly 90 localities from the present and past Caribbean coasts, ranging from the Late Cretaceous to the Pliocene. Details on the Quaternary localities (CARMA-Q) will be published later. CARMA-F lists and illustrates the fossil pollen from past mangrove taxa and their extant representatives, and includes a map of the studied localities and a conventional spreadsheet with the raw data. The compilation is the most complete available for the study of the origin, evolution and diversification of Caribbean mangroves, and is open to modifications for adapting it to the particular interests of each researcher.

A Continuous Centennial Late Glacial-Early Holocene (15-10 cal kyr BP) Palynological Record from the Iberian Pyrenees and Regional Comparisons.

This paper presents the first continuous (gap-free) Late Glacial-Early Holocene (LGEH) pollen record for the Iberian Pyrenees resolved at centennial resolution. The main aims are (i) to provide a standard chronostratigraphic correlation framework, (ii) to unravel the relationships between vegetation shifts, climatic changes and fire, and (iii) to obtain a regional picture of LGEH vegetation for the Pyrenees and the surrounding lowlands. Seven pollen assemblage zones were obtained and correlated with the stadial/interstadial phases of the Greenland ice cores that serve as a global reference. Several well-dated datums were also derived for keystone individual taxa that are useful for correlation purposes. Four vegetation types were identified, two of them corresponding to conifer and deciduous forests (Cf, Df) and two representing open vegetation types (O1, O2) with no modern analogs, dominated by Artemisia-Poaceae and Saxifraga-Cichorioideae, respectively. Forests dominated during interstadial phases (Bølling/Allerød and Early Holocene), whereas O1 dominated during stadials (Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas), with O2 being important only in the first half of the Younger Dryas. The use of pollen-independent proxies for temperature and moisture allowed the reconstruction of paleoclimatic trends and the responses of the four vegetation types defined. The most relevant observation in this sense was the finding of wet climates during the Younger Dryas, which challenges the traditional view of arid conditions for this phase on the basis of former pollen records. Fire incidence was low until the Early Holocene, when regional fires were exacerbated, probably due to the combination of higher temperatures and forest biomass accumulation. These results are compared with the pollen records available for the whole Pyrenean range and the surrounding lowlands within the framework of elevational, climatic and biogeographical gradients. Some potential future developments are suggested on the basis of the obtained results, with an emphasis on the reconsideration of the LGEH spatiotemporal moisture patterns and the comparison of the Pyrenees with other European ranges from different climatic and biogeographical regions.

Human Settlement and Landscape Anthropization of Remote Oceanic Islands: A Comparison between Rapa Nui (Pacific Ocean) and the Azores (Atlantic Ocean).

The flora and vegetation of oceanic islands have been deeply affected by human settlement and further landscape modifications during prehistoric and historical times. The study of these transformations is of interest not only for understanding how current island biotas and ecological communities have been shaped but also for informing biodiversity and ecosystem conservation. This paper compares two oceanic insular entities of disparate geographical, environmental, biological, historical and cultural characteristics-Rapa Nui (Pacific Ocean) and the Azores Islands (Atlantic Ocean)-in terms of human settlement and further landscape anthropization. The similarities and differences between these islands/archipelagos are discussed considering their permanent colonization, the possibility of earlier settlements, the removal of the original forests and the further landscape transformations leading to either full floristic/vegetational degradation (Rapa Nui) or major replacement (Azores). This comparison uses evidence from varied disciplines, notably paleoecology, archaeology, anthropology and history, to obtain a holistic view of the development of the respective socioecological systems from a human ecodynamic perspective. The most relevant issues still to be resolved are identified and some prospects for future research are suggested. The cases of Rapa Nui and Azores Islands may help set a conceptual basis for ocean-wide global comparisons among oceanic islands/archipelagos.

A recent Cannabis pollen increase on the Iberian Pyrenees.

The continuous, varved and absolutely dated sedimentary record of Lake Montcortès (Iberian Pyrenees) has provided evidence for a distinct and characteristic 20th century (1980s) increase in Cannabis pollen (20C) that persists today. This event was coeval with the geographical shift of the hemp production center in the Iberian Peninsula from east to northeast (where Lake Montcortès lies), which was accompanied by a significant production increase. This increasing trend was fostered by the renewed interest of the paper industry in hemp and was promoted by the onset of European Union subsidies to hemp cultivation. Illegal cannabis crops could have also contributed to the Cannabis pollen increase, but sound evidence is still lacking. These preliminary conclusions should be reinforced by increasing the resolution of the current palynological record and modeling the dispersal of Cannabis pollen around the Montcortès region. More similar high-resolution records are needed to verify the geographical extent of the 20C event. Additionally, Lake Montcortès varved sediments are proposed as a suitable candidate to characterize the onset of the "Anthropocene" epoch (mid-20th century), as currently defined by the Anthropocene Working Group.

Rise and fall of Caribbean mangroves.

Mangrove forests, which are essential for the maintenance of terrestrial and marine biodiversity on tropical coasts and constitute the main blue­carbon ecosystems for the mitigation of global warming, are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Mangrove conservation can greatly benefit from paleoecological and evolutionary studies, as past analogs documenting the responses of these ecosystems to environmental drivers such as climate change, sea level shifts and anthropogenic pressure. A database (CARMA) encompassing nearly all studies on mangroves from the Caribbean region, one of the main mangrove biodiversity hotspots, and their response to past environmental shifts has recently been assembled and analyzed. The dataset contains over 140 sites and ranges from the Late Cretaceous to the present. The Caribbean was the cradle of Neotropical mangroves, where they emerged in the Middle Eocene (∼50 million years ago; Ma). A major evolutionary turnover occurred in the Eocene/Oligocene transition (34 Ma) that set the bases for the shaping of modern-like mangroves. However, the diversification of these communities leading to their extant composition did not occur until the Pliocene (∼5 Ma). The Pleistocene (the last 2.6 Ma) glacial-interglacial cycles caused spatial and compositional reorganization with no further evolution. Human pressure on Caribbean mangroves increased in the Middle Holocene (∼6000 years ago), when pre-Columbian societies began to clear these forests for cultivation. In recent decades, deforestation has significantly reduced Caribbean mangrove cover and it has been estimated that, if urgent and effective conservation actions are not undertaken, these 50 million-year-old ecosystems might disappear in a few centuries. A number of specific conservation and restoration applications based on the results of paleoecological and evolutionary studies are suggested.

Taxon Cycles in Neotropical Mangroves.

The concept of the taxon cycle involves successive range expansions and contractions over time, through which a species can indefinitely maintain its core distribution. Otherwise, it becomes extinct. Taxon cycles have been defined mostly for tropical island faunas; examples from continental areas are scarce, and similar case studies for plants remain unknown. Most taxon cycles have been identified on the basis of phylogeographic studies, and straightforward empirical evidence from fossils is lacking. Here, empirical fossil evidence is provided for the recurrent Eocene to the present expansion/contraction cycles in a mangrove taxon (Pelliciera) after a Neotropical-wide study of the available pollen records. This recurrent behavior is compatible with the concept of the taxon cycle from biogeographical, chronological and ecological perspectives. The biotic and abiotic drivers potentially involved in the initiation and maintenance of the Pelliciera expansion/contraction cycles are analyzed, and the ecological and evolutionary implications are discussed. Whether this could be a trend toward extinction is considered under the predictions of the taxon cycle theory. The recurrent expansion and contraction cycles identified for Pelliciera have strong potential for being the first empirically and unequivocally documented taxon cycles and likely the only taxon cycles documented to date for plants.

Responses of Caribbean Mangroves to Quaternary Climatic, Eustatic, and Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecological Change: A Review.

Mangroves are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Understanding how these ecosystems responded to past natural and anthropogenic drivers of ecological change is essential not only for understanding how extant mangroves have been shaped but also for informing their conservation. This paper reviews the available paleoecological evidence for Pleistocene and Holocene responses of Caribbean mangroves to climatic, eustatic, and anthropogenic drivers. The first records date from the Last Interglacial, when global average temperatures and sea levels were slightly higher than present and mangroves grew in locations and conditions similar to today. During the Last Glaciation, temperatures and sea levels were significantly lower, and Caribbean mangroves grew far from their present locations on presently submerged sites. The current mangrove configuration was progressively attained after Early Holocene warming and sea level rise in the absence of anthropogenic pressure. Human influence began to be important in the Mid-Late Holocene, especially during the Archaic and Ceramic cultural periods, when sea levels were close to their present position and climatic and human drivers were the most influential factors. During the last millennium, the most relevant drivers of ecological change have been the episodic droughts linked to the Little Ice Age and the historical developments of the last centuries.

Inductive prediction in biology: Are long-term ecological and evolutionary processes predictable?: Are long-term ecological and evolutionary processes predictable?

Reliable predictions of long-term ecological and evolutionary processes require more information than the periodicity of the astronomical forces that drive them.

On predictions and laws in biological evolution: Is biology able to formulate general laws and develop inductive predictions as in physics or chemistry?: Is biology able to formulate general laws and develop inductive predictions as in physics or chemistry?

Biology has so far had difficulties formulating general laws akin to physics and chemistry. Evolution and its propensity to reduce entropy could become a start for such laws in biology.

Regional precipitation trends since 1500 CE reconstructed from calcite sublayers of a varved Mediterranean lake record (Central Pyrenees).

The Mediterranean region is expected to be highly impacted by global warming, although the uncertainty of future scenarios, particularly about precipitation patterns remains quite large. To better predict shifts in its current climate system and to test models, more regional climate records are needed spanning longer than the instrumental period. Here we provide a high-resolution reconstruction of autumn precipitation for the Central Pyrenees since 1500 CE based on annual calcite sublayer widths from Montcortès Lake (Central southern Pyrenees) varved sediments. The 500-yr calcite data series was detrended and calibrated with instrumental climate records by applying correlations and cross-correlations to regional precipitation anomalies. Highest relationships were obtained between a composite calcite series and autumn precipitation anomalies for the complete calibration period (1900-2002) and for the two halves of the full period. Applied statistical tests were significant, evidencing that the climatic signal could be reconstructed. The reconstructed precipitation anomalies show interdecadal shifts, and rainfall decrease within the coldest period of the LIA and during the second half of the 20th century, probably associated to current Global Warming. Neither increasing nor decreasing linear trends or periods of extreme precipitation events were identified. Our results are coherent with other palaeohydrological reconstructions for northern Iberian Peninsula. Correlations between the predicted autumn precipitation and the main teleconnections -NAO, ENSO and WEMO- were weak, although a potential relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern is suggested. The obtained reconstruction provides the first estimations of regional autumn precipitation shifts in the Central Pyrenees and is one of the few reconstructions that cover annual-to-century scale climate variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean region from the end of the Litte Ice Age (LIA) to the current period of Global Warming.

Biodiversity crisis or sixth mass extinction?: Does the current anthropogenic biodiversity crisis really qualify as a mass extinction?: Does the current anthropogenic biodiversity crisis really qualify as a mass extinction?

Human actions have caused an increasing number of species to go extinct. Do the available data support concerns about a new mass extinction event?

The deforestation of Easter Island.

Easter Island deforestation has traditionally been viewed as an abrupt island-wide event caused by the prehistoric Rapanui civilization, which precipitated its own cultural collapse. This view emerges from early palaeoecological analyses of lake sediments, which showed a sudden and total replacement of palm pollen by grass pollen shortly after Polynesian settlement (800-1200 CE). However, further palaeoecological research has challenged this view, showing that the apparent abruptness and island-wide synchronicity of forest removal was an artefact due to the occurrence of a sedimentary gap of several millennia that prevented a detailed record of the replacement of palm-dominated forests by grass meadows. During the last decade, several continuous (gap-free) and chronologically coherent sediment cores encompassing the last millennia have been retrieved and analysed, providing a new picture of forest removal on Easter Island. According to these analyses, deforestation was not abrupt but gradual and occurred at different times and rates, depending on the site. Regarding the causes, humans were not the only factors responsible for forest clearing, as climatic droughts as well as climate-human-landscape feedbacks and synergies also played a role. In summary, the deforestation of Easter Island was a complex process that was spatially and temporally heterogeneous and took place under the actions and interactions of both natural and anthropogenic drivers. In addition, archaeological evidence shows that the Rapanui civilization was resilient to deforestation and remained healthy until European contact, which contradicts the occurrence of a cultural collapse. Further research should aim to obtain new continuous cores and make use of recently developed biomarker analyses to advance towards a holistic view of the patterns, causes and consequences of Easter Island deforestation.

Historical shifts in oxygenation regime as recorded in the laminated sediments of lake Montcortès (Central Pyrenees) support hypoxia as a continental-scale phenomenon.

Recent expansion of anoxia has become a global issue and there is potential for worsening under global warming. At the same time, obtaining proper long-term instrumental oxygen records is difficult, thus reducing the possibility of recording long-term changes in oxygen shifts that can be related with climate or human influence. Varved lake sediments provide the better time frame to study this phenomenon at high resolution. We tracked the oxic/anoxic shifts of the varved Lake Montcortès since 1500CE, and tried to recognise anthropogenic and climatic influences combining biological and geochemical proxies. Four main scenarios emerged: 1) years with abrupt sediment inputs (A); 2) years with outstanding mixing and oxygenation of the water column (B); 3) years with strong stratification, anoxia, intense sulfur bacterial activity and increased biomass production (C); 4) years with stratification and anoxia, but relatively less biomass production (D). In line with current limnologic trends, high supra-annual variability in the occurrence of oxygenation events was observed. Interestingly, at least 45.3% of the years were mixing years and, like the meromictic ones, were mostly clustered into groups of consecutive years, thus alternating years of monomixis with years of meromixis. Most years of D belong to the period 1500-1820CE, when human activities were the most intense. Most years of A belonged to the climatic unstable period of 1850-1899CE. Years of B were irregularly distributed but were best represented in the period 1820-1849CE. Most years of C belonged to the 20th century. More than 90% of the years with climatic instrumental records belonged to B and C. Current climate warming seems to be taking control over the oxygenation capacity of the lake, especially since the second half of the 20th century. Our results support recent findings related to hypoxia spreading at the global scale.

Potential Responses of Vascular Plants from the Pristine "Lost World" of the Neotropical Guayana Highlands to Global Warming: Review and New Perspectives.

The neotropical Guayana Highlands (GH) are one of the few remaining pristine environments on Earth, and they host amazing biodiversity with a high degree endemism, especially among vascular plants. Despite the lack of direct human disturbance, GH plants and their communities are threatened with extinction from habitat loss due to global warming (GW). Geographic information systems simulations involving the entire known vascular GH flora (>2430 species) predict potential GW-driven extinctions on the order of 80% by the end of this century, including nearly half of the endemic species. These estimates and the assessment of an environmental impact value for each species led to the hierarchization of plants by their risk of habitat loss and the definition of priority conservation categories. However, the predictions assume that all species will respond to GW by migrating upward and at equal rates, which is unlikely, so current estimates should be considered preliminary and incomplete (although they represent the best that can be done with the existing information). Other potential environmental forcings (i.e., precipitation shifts, an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration) and idiosyncratic plant responses (i.e., resistance, phenotypic acclimation, rapid evolution) should also be considered, so detailed eco-physiological studies of the more threatened species are urgently needed. The main obstacles to developing such studies are the remoteness and inaccessibility of the GH and, especially, the difficulty in obtaining official permits for fieldwork.

The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.

Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets.