Evaluating the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential of improved forest management and accelerated forest conversion in Norway.

As a carbon dioxide removal measure, the Norwegian government is currently considering a policy of large-scale planting of spruce (Picea abies (L) H. Karst) on lands in various states of natural transition to a forest dominated by deciduous broadleaved tree species. Given the aspiration to bring emissions on balance with removals in the latter half of the 21st century in effort to limit the global mean temperature rise to "well below" 2°C, the effectiveness of such a policy is unclear given relatively low spruce growth rates in the region. Further convoluting the picture is the magnitude and relevance of surface albedo changes linked to such projects, which typically counteract the benefits of an enhanced forest CO2 sink in high-latitude regions. Here, we carry out a rigorous empirically based assessment of the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale spruce planting in Norway, taking into account transient developments in both terrestrial carbon sinks and surface albedo over the 21st century and beyond. We find that surface albedo changes would likely play a negligible role in counteracting tCDR, yet given low forest growth rates in the region, notable tCDR benefits from such projects would not be realized until the second half of the 21st century, with maximum benefits occurring even later around 2150. We estimate Norway's total accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 and 2150 (including surface albedo changes) to be 447 (±240) and 852 (±295) Mt CO2 -eq. at mean net present values of US$ 12 (±3) and US$ 13 (±2) per ton CDR, respectively. For perspective, the accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 represents around 8 years of Norway's total current annual production-based (i.e., territorial) CO2 -eq. emissions.

Spatial overlap between environmental policy instruments and areas of high conservation value in forest.

In order to safeguard biodiversity in forest we need to know how forest policy instruments work. Here we use a nationwide network of 9400 plots in productive forest to analyze to what extent large-scale policy instruments, individually and together, target forest of high conservation value in Norway. We studied both instruments working through direct regulation; Strict Protection and Landscape Protection, and instruments working through management planning and voluntary schemes of forest certification; Wilderness Area and Mountain Forest. As forest of high conservation value (HCV-forest) we considered the extent of 12 Biodiversity Habitats and the extent of Old-Age Forest. We found that 22% of productive forest area contained Biodiversity Habitats. More than 70% of this area was not covered by any large-scale instruments. Mountain Forest covered 23%, while Strict Protection and Wilderness both covered 5% of the Biodiversity Habitat area. A total of 9% of productive forest area contained Old-Age Forest, and the relative coverage of the four instruments was similar as for Biodiversity Habitats. For all instruments, except Landscape Protection, the targeted areas contained significantly higher proportions of HCV-forest than areas not targeted by these instruments. Areas targeted by Strict Protection had higher proportions of HCV-forest than areas targeted by other instruments, except for areas targeted by Wilderness Area which showed similar proportions of Biodiversity Habitats. There was a substantial amount of spatial overlap between the policy tools, but no incremental conservation effect of overlapping instruments in terms of contributing to higher percentages of targeted HCV-forest. Our results reveal that although the current policy mix has an above average representation of forest of high conservation value, the targeting efficiency in terms of area overlap is limited. There is a need to improve forest conservation and a potential to cover this need by better targeting high conservation value areas.

Bud burst timing in Picea abies seedlings as affected by temperature during dormancy induction and mild spells during chilling.

In trees adapted to cold climates, conditions during autumn and winter may influence the subsequent timing of bud burst and hence tree survival during early spring frosts. We tested the effects of two temperatures during dormancy induction and mild spells (MS) during chilling on the timing of bud burst in three Picea abies (L.) Karst. provenances (58-66 degrees N). One-year-old seedlings were induced to become dormant at temperatures of 12 or 21 degrees C applied during 9 weeks of short days (12-h photoperiod). The seedlings were then moved to cold storage and given either continuous chilling at 0.7 degrees C (control), or chilling interrupted by one 14-day MS at either 8 or 12 degrees C. Interruptions with MS were staggered throughout the 175-day chilling period, resulting in 10 MS differing in date of onset. Subsets of seedlings were moved to forcing conditions (12-h photoperiod, 12 degrees C) throughout the chilling period, to assess dormancy status at different timings of the MS treatment. Finally, after 175 days of chilling, timing of bud burst was assessed in a 24-h photoperiod at 12 degrees C (control and MS-treated seedlings). The MS treatment did not significantly affect days to bud burst when given early (after 7-35 chilling days). When MS was given after 49 chilling days or later, the seedlings burst bud earlier than the controls, and the difference increased with increasing length of the chilling period given before the MS. The 12 degrees C MS treatment was more effective than the 8 degrees C MS treatment, and the difference remained constant after the seedlings had received 66 or more chilling days before the MS treatment was applied. In all provenances, a constant temperature of 21 degrees C during dormancy induction resulted in more dormant seedlings (delayed bud burst) than a constant temperature of 12 degrees C, but this did not delay the response to the MS treatment.

Climatic control of bud burst in young seedlings of nine provenances of Norway spruce.

Detailed knowledge of temperature effects on the timing of dormancy development and bud burst will help evaluate the impacts of climate change on forest trees. We tested the effects of temperature applied during short-day treatment, duration of short-day treatment, duration of chilling and light regime applied during forcing on the timing of bud burst in 1- and 2-year-old seedlings of nine provenances of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). High temperature during dormancy induction, little or no chilling and low temperature during forcing all delayed dormancy release but did not prevent bud burst or growth onset provided the seedlings were forced under long-day conditions. Without chilling, bud burst occurred in about 20% of seedlings kept in short days at 12 degrees C, indicating that young Norway spruce seedlings do not exhibit true bud dormancy. Chilling hastened bud burst and removed the long photoperiod requirement, but the effect of high temperature applied during dormancy induction was observed even after prolonged chilling. Extension of the short-day treatment from 4 to 8 or 12 weeks hastened bud burst. The effect of treatments applied during dormancy development was larger than that of provenance; in some cases no provenance effect was detected, but in 1-year-old seedlings, time to bud burst decreased linearly with increasing latitude of origin. Differences among provenances were complicated by different responses of some origins to light conditions under long-day forcing. In conclusion, timing of bud burst in Norway spruce seedlings is significantly affected by temperature during bud set, and these effects are modified by chilling and environmental conditions during forcing.