Predictive value of sarcopenia components for all-cause mortality: findings from population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Low grip strength and gait speed are associated with mortality. However, investigation of the additional mortality risk explained by these measures, over and above other factors, is limited. AIM: We examined whether grip strength and gait speed improve discriminative capacity for mortality over and above more readily obtainable clinical risk factors. METHODS: Participants from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study, and the Hertfordshire Cohort Study were analysed. Appendicular lean mass (ALM) was ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and usual gait speed over 2.4-6 m. Verified deaths were recorded. Associations between sarcopenia components and mortality were examined using Cox regression with cohort as a random effect; discriminative capacity was assessed using Harrell's Concordance Index (C-index). RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of participants (n = 8362) was 73.8(5.1) years; 5231(62.6%) died during a median follow-up time of 13.3 years. Grip strength (hazard ratio (95% CI) per SD decrease: 1.14 (1.10,1.19)) and gait speed (1.21 (1.17,1.26)), but not ALM index (1.01 (0.95,1.06)), were associated with mortality in mutually-adjusted models after accounting for age, sex, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, ethnicity, education, history of fractures and falls, femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), self-rated health, cognitive function and number of comorbidities. However, a model containing only age and sex as exposures gave a C-index (95% CI) of 0.65(0.64,0.66), which only increased to 0.67(0.67,0.68) after inclusion of grip strength and gait speed. CONCLUSIONS: Grip strength and gait speed may generate only modest adjunctive risk information for mortality compared with other more readily obtainable risk factors.

Simultaneous automated ascertainment of prevalent vertebral fracture and abdominal aortic calcification in clinical practice: role in fracture risk assessment.

Whether simultaneous automated ascertainments of prevalent vertebral fracture (auto-PVFx) and abdominal aortic calcification (auto-AAC) on vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) lateral spine bone density (BMD) images jointly predict incident fractures in routine clinical practice is unclear. We estimated the independent associations of auto-PVFx and auto-AAC primarily with incident major osteoporotic and secondarily with incident hip and any clinical fractures in 11 013 individuals (mean [SD] age 75.8 [6.8] years, 93.3% female) who had a BMD test combined with VFA between March 2010 and December 2017. Auto-PVFx and auto-AAC were ascertained using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations of auto-PVFx and auto-AAC with incident fractures over a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.7 (2.2) years, adjusted for each other and other risk factors. At baseline, 17% (n = 1881) had auto-PVFx and 27% (n = 2974) had a high level of auto-AAC (≥ 6 on scale of 0 to 24). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for incident major osteoporotic fracture (95% C.I.) were 1.85 (1.59, 2.15) for those with compared to those without auto-PVFx, and 1.36 (1.14, 1.62) for those with high compared to low auto-AAC. The multivariable-adjusted HRs for incident hip fracture were 1.62 (95% C.I. 1.26 to 2.07) for those with compared to those without auto-PVFx, and 1.55 (95% C.I. 1.15 to 2.09) for those high auto-AAC compared to low auto-AAC. The 5-year cumulative incidence of major osteoporotic fracture was 7.1% in those with no auto-PVFx and low auto-AAC, 10.1% in those with no auto-PVFx and high auto-AAC, 13.4% in those with auto-PVFx and low auto-AAC, and 18.0% in those with auto-PVFx and high auto-AAC. While physician manual review of images in clinical practice will still be needed to confirm image quality and provide clinical context for interpretation, simultaneous automated ascertainment of auto-PVFx and auto-AAC can aid fracture risk assessment.

Individuals with calcification of their abdominal aorta (AAC) and vertebral fractures seen on lateral spine bone density images (easily obtained as part of a bone density test) are much more likely to have subsequent fractures. Prior studies have not shown if both AAC and prior vertebral fracture both contribute to fracture prediction in routine clinical practice. Additionally, a barrier to using these images to aid fracture risk assessment at the time of bone density testing has been the need for expert readers to be able to accurately detect both AAC and vertebral fractures. We have developed automated computer methods (using artificial intelligence) to accurately detect vertebral fracture (auto-PVFx) and auto-AAC on lateral spine bone density images for 11 013 older individuals having a bone density test in routine clinical practice. Over a 5-year follow-up period, 7.1% of those with no auto-PVFx and low auto-AAC, 10.1% of those with no auto-PVFx and high auto-AAC, 13.4% of those with auto-PVFx and low auto-AAC, and 18.0% of those with auto-PVFx and high auto-AAC had a major osteoporotic fracture. Auto-PVFx and auto-AAC, ascertained simultaneously on lateral spine bone density images, both contribute to the risk of subsequent major osteoporotic fractures in routine clinical practice settings.

Effect of Abdominal Tissue Thickness on Trabecular Bone Score and Fracture Risk in Adults With Diabetes: The Manitoba BMD Registry.

Individuals with type 2 diabetes have lower trabecular bone score (TBS) and increased fracture risk despite higher bone mineral density (BMD). However, measures of trabecular microarchitecture from high resolution peripheral computed tomography (HRpQCT) are not lower in type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that confounding effects of abdominal tissue thickness may explain this discrepancy, since central obesity is a risk factor for diabetes and also artifactually lowers TBS. This hypothesis was tested in individuals aged 40 years and older from a large DXA registry, stratified by sex and diabetes status. When DXA-measured abdominal tissue thickness was not included as a covariate, men without diabetes had lower TBS than women without diabetes (mean difference -0.074, p<0.001). TBS was lower in women with versus without diabetes (mean difference -0.037, p<0.001), and men with versus without diabetes (mean difference -0.007, p=0.042). When adjusted for tissue thickness these findings reversed, and TBS became greater in men versus women without diabetes (mean difference +0.053, p<0.001), in women with versus without diabetes (mean difference +0.008, p<0.001) and in men with versus without diabetes (mean difference +0.014, p<0.001). During mean 8.7 years observation, incident major osteoporotic fractures were seen in 7048 (9.6%). Adjusted for multiple covariates except tissue thickness, TBS predicted fracture in all subgroups with no significant diabetes interaction. When further adjusted for tissue thickness, HR per SD lower TBS remained significant and even increased slightly. In conclusion, TBS predicts fractures independent of other clinical risk factors in both women and men, with and without diabetes. Excess abdominal tissue thickness in men and individuals with type 2 diabetes may artifactually lower TBS using the current algorithm, which reverses after accounting for tissue thickness. This supports ongoing efforts to update the TBS algorithm to directly account for the effects of abdominal tissue thickness for improved fracture risk prediction.

Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at increased fracture risk despite having higher bone mineral density (BMD). Previous studies suggest that trabecular bone score (TBS), a measure of bone derived from spine DXA images that can be used to assess fracture risk in addition to BMD, may be lower in individuals with type 2 diabetes. However, TBS is artificially lowered by greater abdominal obesity. We showed that abdominal obesity explained the lower TBS measurements that were seen in individuals with type 2 diabetes. However, even when we considered the effect of abdominal obesity, TBS was still able to predict major fractures in both women and men, with and without diabetes.

FRAX predicts cardiovascular risk in women undergoing osteoporosis screening: the Manitoba bone mineral density registry.

Osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are highly prevalent in older women, with increasing evidence for shared risk factors and pathogenesis. Although FRAX was developed for the assessment of fracture risk, we hypothesized that it might also provide information on CVD risk. To test the ability of the FRAX tool and FRAX-defined risk factors to predict incident CVD in women undergoing osteoporosis screening with DXA, we performed a retrospective prognostic cohort study which included women aged 50 yr or older with a baseline DXA scan in the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Registry between March 31, 1999 and March 31, 2018. FRAX scores for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were calculated on all participants. Incident MOF and major adverse CV events (MACE; hospitalized acute myocardial infarction [AMI], hospitalized non-hemorrhagic cerebrovascular disease [CVA], or all-cause death) were ascertained from linkage to population-based healthcare data. The study population comprised 59 696 women (mean age 65.7 ± 9.4 yr). Over mean 8.7 yr of observation, 6021 (10.1%) had MOF, 12 277 women (20.6%) had MACE, 2274 (3.8%) had AMI, 2061 (3.5%) had CVA, and 10 253 (17.2%) died. MACE rates per 1000 person-years by FRAX risk categories low (10-yr predicted MOF <10%), moderate (10%-19.9%) and high (≥20%) were 13.5, 34.0, and 64.6, respectively. Although weaker than the association with incident MOF, increasing FRAX quintile was associated with increasing risk for MACE (all P-trend <.001), even after excluding prior CVD and adjusting for age. HR for MACE per SD increase in FRAX was 1.99 (95%CI, 1.96-2.02). All FRAX-defined risk factors (except parental hip fracture and lower BMI) were independently associated with higher non-death CV events. Although FRAX is intended for fracture risk prediction, it has predictive value for cardiovascular risk.

Cost-Effectiveness of Newer Pharmacologic Treatments in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies for the American College of Physicians.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, costs of antidiabetes medications exceed $327 billion. PURPOSE: To systematically review cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of newer antidiabetes medications for type 2 diabetes. DATA SOURCES: Bibliographic databases from 1 January 2010 through 13 July 2023, limited to English. STUDY SELECTION: Nonindustry-funded CEAs, done from a U.S. perspective that estimated cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for newer antidiabetic medications. Two reviewers screened the literature; disagreements were resolved with a third reviewer. DATA EXTRACTION: Cost-effectiveness analyses were reviewed for treatment comparisons, model inputs, and outcomes. Risk of bias (RoB) of the CEAs was assessed using Drummond criteria and certainty of evidence (CoE) was assessed using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluations). Certainty of evidence was determined using cost per QALY thresholds predetermined by the American College of Physicians Clinical Guidelines Committee; low (>$150 000), intermediate ($50 to $150 000), or high (<$50 000) value per QALY compared with the alternative. DATA SYNTHESIS: Nine CEAs were eligible (2 low, 1 high, and 6 some concerns RoB), evaluating glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP1a), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide agonist (GIP/GLP1a), and insulin. Comparators were metformin, sulfonylureas, neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin, and others. Compared with metformin, GLP1a and SGLT2i are low value as first-line therapy (high CoE) but may be of intermediate value when added to metformin or background therapy compared with adding nothing (low CoE). Insulin analogues may be similarly effective but more expensive than NPH insulin (low CoE). The GIP/GLP1a value is uncertain (insufficient CoE). LIMITATIONS: Cost-effectiveness analyses varied in methodological approach, assumptions, and drug comparisons. Risk of bias and GRADE method for CEAs are not well established. CONCLUSION: Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists and SGLT2i are of low value as first-line therapy but may be of intermediate value when added to metformin or other background therapy compared with adding nothing. Other drugs and comparisons are of low or uncertain value. Results are sensitive to drug effectiveness and cost assumptions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American College of Physicians. (PROSPERO: CRD42022382315).

Balancing fracture risk versus risk of mortality before fracture among women aged 80 years or older.

BACKGROUND: Most fractures occur in women aged ≥80 years but competing mortality unrelated to fracture may limit the benefit of osteoporosis drug therapy for some women in late life. Our primary aim was to develop separate prediction models for non-spine fracture (NSF) and mortality before fracture to identify subsets of women with varying fracture versus mortality risks. METHODS: Separate prediction models were developed for NSF and mortality before NSF for 4895 women aged ≥80 years enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) or the Health Aging and Body Composition (HABC) study. Proportional hazards models modified to account for competing mortality were used to identify candidate risk factors for each outcome. Predictors associated with NSF or mortality (p < 0.2) were included in separate competing risk models to estimate the cumulative incidence of NSF and mortality before NSF during 5 years of follow-up. This process was repeated to develop separate prediction models for hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. RESULTS: Significant predictors of NSF (race, total hip BMD, grip strength, prior fracture, falls, and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, benzodiazepines, or oral/transdermal estrogen) differed from predictors of mortality before NSF (age, walking speed, multimorbidity, weight change, shrinking, smoking, self-rated health, dementia, and use of warfarin). Within nine subsets of women defined by tertiles of risk, 5-year outcomes varied from 28% NSF and 8% mortality in the high-risk NSF/low-risk mortality subset, to 9% NSF and 22% mortality in the low-risk NSF/high-risk mortality subset. Similar results were seen for predictors of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. CONCLUSION: Considerable variation in 5-year competing mortality risk is present among women in late life with similar 5-year NSF risk. Both fracture risk and life expectancy should inform shared clinical decision-making regarding initiation or continuation of osteoporosis drug therapy for women aged ≥80 years.

Extent of Abdominal Aortic Calcification Is Associated With Incident Rapid Weight Loss Over 5 Years: The Perth Longitudinal Study of Ageing Women.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), a marker of vascular disease, is associated with disease in other vascular beds including gastrointestinal arteries. We investigated whether AAC is related to rapid weight loss over 5 years and whether rapid weight loss is associated with 9.5-year all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older women. METHODS: Lateral spine images from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (1998/1999) were used to assess AAC (24-point AAC scoring method) in 929 older women. Over 5 years, body weight was assessed at 12-month intervals. Rapid weight loss was defined as >5% decrease in body weight within any 12-month interval. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was used to assess AAC and rapid weight loss and Cox regression to assess the relationship between rapid weight loss and 9.5-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Mean±SD age of women was 75.0±2.6 years. During the initial 5 years, 366 (39%) women presented with rapid weight loss. Compared with women with low AAC (24-point AAC score 0-1), those with moderate (24-point AAC score 2-5: odds ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.00-1.85]) and extensive (24-point AAC score 6+: odds ratio, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.10-2.31]) AAC had higher odds for presenting with rapid weight loss. Results remained similar after further adjustment for dietary factors (alcohol, protein, fat, and carbohydrates), diet quality, blood pressure, and cholesterol measures. The estimates were similar in subgroups of women who met protein intake (n=599) and physical activity (n=735) recommendations (extensive AAC: odds ratios, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.12-2.92] and 1.58 [95% CI, 1.02-2.44], respectively). Rapid weight loss was associated with all-cause mortality over the next 9.5 years (hazard ratio, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.17-1.89]; P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: AAC extent was associated with greater risk for rapid weight loss over 5 years in older women, a risk for all-cause mortality. Since the association was unchanged after taking nutritional intakes into account, these data support the possibility that vascular disease may play a role in the maintenance of body weight.

Machine-Learning Assessed Abdominal Aortic Calcification is Associated with Long-Term Fall and Fracture Risk in Community-Dwelling Older Australian Women.

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), a recognized measure of advanced vascular disease, is associated with higher cardiovascular risk and poorer long-term prognosis. AAC can be assessed on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived lateral spine images used for vertebral fracture assessment at the time of bone density screening using a validated 24-point scoring method (AAC-24). Previous studies have identified robust associations between AAC-24 score, incident falls, and fractures. However, a major limitation of manual AAC assessment is that it requires a trained expert. Hence, we have developed an automated machine-learning algorithm for assessing AAC-24 scores (ML-AAC24). In this prospective study, we evaluated the association between ML-AAC24 and long-term incident falls and fractures in 1023 community-dwelling older women (mean age, 75 ± 3 years) from the Perth Longitudinal Study of Ageing Women. Over 10 years of follow-up, 253 (24.7%) women experienced a clinical fracture identified via self-report every 4-6 months and verified by X-ray, and 169 (16.5%) women had a fracture hospitalization identified from linked hospital discharge data. Over 14.5 years, 393 (38.4%) women experienced an injurious fall requiring hospitalization identified from linked hospital discharge data. After adjusting for baseline fracture risk, women with moderate to extensive AAC (ML-AAC24 ≥ 2) had a greater risk of clinical fractures (hazard ratio [HR] 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.85) and fall-related hospitalization (HR 1.35; 95% CI, 1.09-1.66), compared to those with low AAC (ML-AAC24 ≤ 1). Similar to manually assessed AAC-24, ML-AAC24 was not associated with fracture hospitalizations. The relative hazard estimates obtained using machine learning were similar to those using manually assessed AAC-24 scores. In conclusion, this novel automated method for assessing AAC, that can be easily and seamlessly captured at the time of bone density testing, has robust associations with long-term incident clinical fractures and injurious falls. However, the performance of the ML-AAC24 algorithm needs to be verified in independent cohorts. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Effect of BMI-Discordant Abdominal Tissue Thickness on Fracture Probability: A Registry-Based Study.

FRAX, which is used to assess fracture probability, considers body mass index (BMI), but BMI may not reflect individual variation in body composition and distribution. We examined the effect of BMI-discordant abdominal thickness on FRAX-derived fracture probability for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture. We studied 73,105 individuals, mean age 64.2 years. During mean 8.7 years, 7048 (9.6%) individuals sustained incident MOF, including 2155 (3.0%) hip fractures. We defined abdominal thickness index (ATI) as the difference between abdominal thickness measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and thickness predicted by BMI using sex-stratified regression. ATI was categorized from lower (<-2 cm, -2 to -1 cm) to higher (1-2 cm, >+2 cm) with referent around zero (-1 to +1 cm). Adjusted for FRAX probability, increasing ATI was associated with incident MOF and hip fracture (p < 0.001). For the highest ATI category, MOF risk was increased (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.35) independent of FRAX probability. Similar findings were noted for hip fracture probability (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.51). There was significant age-interaction with much larger effects before age 65 years (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.23-1.69 for MOF; 2.29, 95% CI 1.65-3.18 for hip fracture). In contrast, for the subset of individuals with diabetes, there was also increased risk for those in the lowest ATI category (HR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.12-2.65 for MOF; 2.81, 95% CI 1.59-4.97 for hip fracture). Calibration plots across ATI categories demonstrated deviation from the line of identity in women (calibration slope 2.26 for MOF, 2.83 for hip fracture). An effect of ATI was not found in men, but this was inconclusive as the sex-interaction terms did not show significant effect modification. In conclusion, these data support the need to investigate increased abdominal thickness beyond that predicted by BMI and sex as a FRAX-independent risk factor for fracture. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Advantages and Disadvantages of Random Forest Models for Prediction of Hip Fracture Risk Versus Mortality Risk in the Oldest Old.

Targeted fracture prevention strategies among late-life adults should balance fracture risk versus competing mortality risk. Models have previously been constructed using Fine-Gray subdistribution methods. We used a machine learning method adapted for competing risk survival time to evaluate candidate risk factors and create models for hip fractures and competing mortality among men and women aged 80 years and older using data from three prospective cohorts (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF], Osteoporotic Fracture in Men study [MrOS], Health Aging and Body Composition study [HABC]). Random forest competing risk models were used to estimate absolute 5-year risk of hip fracture and absolute 5-year risk of competing mortality (excluding post-hip fracture deaths). Models were constructed for both outcomes simultaneously; minimal depth was used to rank and select variables for smaller models. Outcome specific models were constructed; variable importance was used to rank and select variables for inclusion in smaller random forest models. Random forest models were compared to simple Fine-Gray models with six variables selected a priori. Top variables for competing risk random forests were frailty and related components in men while top variables were age, bone mineral density (BMD) (total hip, femoral neck), and frailty components in women. In both men and women, outcome specific rankings strongly favored BMD variables for hip fracture prediction while frailty and components were strongly associated with competing mortality. Model discrimination for random forest models varied from 0.65 for mortality in women to 0.81 for hip fracture in men and depended on model choice and variables included. Random models performed slightly better than simple Fine-Gray model for prediction of competing mortality, but similarly for prediction of hip fractures. Random forests can be used to estimate risk of hip fracture and competing mortality among the oldest old. Modest gains in performance for mortality without hip fracture compared to Fine-Gray models must be weighed against increased complexity. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Machine learning for abdominal aortic calcification assessment from bone density machine-derived lateral spine images.

BACKGROUND: Lateral spine images for vertebral fracture assessment can be easily obtained on modern bone density machines. Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) can be scored on these images by trained imaging specialists to assess cardiovascular disease risk. However, this process is laborious and requires careful training. METHODS: Training and testing of model performance of the convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm for automated AAC-24 scoring utilised 5012 lateral spine images (2 manufacturers, 4 models of bone density machines), with trained imaging specialist AAC scores. Validation occurred in a registry-based cohort study of 8565 older men and women with images captured as part of routine clinical practice for fracture risk assessment. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between machine-learning AAC (ML-AAC-24) scores with future incident Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) that including death, hospitalised acute myocardial infarction or ischemic cerebrovascular disease ascertained from linked healthcare data. FINDINGS: The average intraclass correlation coefficient between imaging specialist and ML-AAC-24 scores for 5012 images was 0.84 (95% CI 0.83, 0.84) with classification accuracy of 80% for established AAC groups. During a mean follow-up 4 years in the registry-based cohort, MACE outcomes were reported in 1177 people (13.7%). With increasing ML-AAC-24 scores there was an increasing proportion of people with MACE (low 7.9%, moderate 14.5%, high 21.2%), as well as individual MACE components (all p-trend <0.001). After multivariable adjustment, moderate and high ML-AAC-24 groups remained significantly associated with MACE (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.31-1.80 & HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.75-2.42, respectively), compared to those with low ML-AAC-24. INTERPRETATION: The ML-AAC-24 scores had substantial levels of agreement with trained imaging specialists, and was associated with a substantial gradient of risk for cardiovascular events in a real-world setting. This approach could be readily implemented into these clinical settings to improve identification of people at high CVD risk. FUNDING: The study was supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Ideas grant and the Rady Innovation Fund, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba.

Liver enzyme inducing anticonvulsant drug use is associated with prevalent vertebral fracture.

Among those who use of liver-enzyme inducing anticonvulsant medication for more than 2 years, 27% have a prevalent vertebral fracture on vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) lateral spine imaging. VFA imaging at the time of bone densitometry may be appropriate for older individuals who are chronic users of these medications. PURPOSE: It is unclear whether prevalent vertebral fractures are associated with use of anticonvulsant drugs, especially those that induce liver enzymes (LEI) that metabolize drugs and vitamin D. Our purpose was to estimate the prevalence of vertebral fracture on densitometric lateral spine images according to duration of prior anticonvulsant medication use. METHODS: Our study population was 11,822 individuals (mean [sd] age 76.1 [6.8] years, 94% female) who had bone densitometry with VFA between 2010 and 2018. Cumulative prior exposure to LEI anticonvulsants (carbamazepine, phenobarbital, phenytoin, valproic acid, n = 538), non-LEI anticonvulsants (clonazepam, gabapentin, levetiracetam, others, n = 2786), and other non-clonazepam benzodiazepines (n = 5082) was determined using linked pharmacy records. Prevalent vertebral fractures were identified on VFA images using the modified ABQ method. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association of anticonvulsant drug exposure with prevalent vertebral fractures. RESULTS: Prevalence of one or more vertebral fractures was 16.1% for the entire analytic cohort, and 27.0%, 19.0%, and 18.5% for those with ≥ 2 years of prior LEI anticonvulsant use, non-LEI anticonvulsant use, and other benzodiazepine use, respectively. Adjusted for multiple covariates, use of prior LEI anticonvulsant medication for ≥ 2 years was associated with prevalent fracture on VFA (OR 1.48 [95% CI 1.04, 2.10]). CONCLUSION: LEI anticonvulsant use for ≥ 2 years is associated with higher vertebral fracture prevalence. Lateral spine VFA imaging at the time of bone densitometry may be appropriate for older individuals who have used LEI anticonvulsant medications for ≥ 2 years.

Race and Ethnicity and Fracture Prediction Among Younger Postmenopausal Women in the Women's Health Initiative Study.

Importance: The best approach to identify younger postmenopausal women for osteoporosis screening is uncertain. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), which includes self-identified racial and ethnic information, and the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool (OST), which does not, are risk assessment tools recommended by US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines to identify candidates for bone mineral density (BMD) testing in this age group. Objective: To compare the ability of FRAX vs OST to discriminate between younger postmenopausal women who do and do not experience incident fracture during a 10-year follow-up in the 4 racial and ethnic groups specified by FRAX. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of Women's Health Initiative participants included 67 169 women (baseline age range, 50-64 years) with 10 years of follow-up for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; including hip, clinical spine, forearm, and shoulder fracture) at 40 US clinical centers. Data were collected from October 1993 to December 2008 and analyzed between May 11, 2022, and February 23, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident MOF and BMD (in a subset of 4607 women) were assessed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for FRAX (without BMD information) and OST was calculated within each racial and ethnic category. Results: Among the 67 169 participants, mean (SD) age at baseline was 57.8 (4.1) years. A total of 1486 (2.2%) self-identified as Asian, 5927 (8.8%) as Black, 2545 (3.8%) as Hispanic, and 57 211 (85.2%) as White. During follow-up, 5594 women experienced MOF. For discrimination of MOF, AUC values for FRAX were 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58-0.71) for Asian, 0.55 (95% CI, 0.52-0.59) for Black, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.56-0.65) for Hispanic, and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.58-0.59) for White women. The AUC values for OST were 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.69) for Asian, 0.53 (95% CI, 0.50-0.57) for Black, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.62) for Hispanic, and 0.55 (95% CI, 0.54-0.56) for White women. For discrimination of femoral neck osteoporosis, AUC values were excellent for OST (range, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.65-0.93] to 0.85 [95% CI, 0.74-0.96]), higher for OST than FRAX (range, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.68-0.75] to 0.74 [95% CI, 0.60-0.88]), and similar in each of the 4 racial and ethnic groups. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that within each racial and ethnic category, the US FRAX and OST have suboptimal performance in discrimination of MOF in younger postmenopausal women. In contrast, for identifying osteoporosis, OST was excellent. The US version of FRAX should not be routinely used to make screening decisions in younger postmenopausal women. Future investigations should improve existing tools or create new approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment for this age group.

Incremental Health Care Costs of Self-Reported Functional Impairments and Phenotypic Frailty in Community-Dwelling Older Adults : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care systems need better strategies to identify older adults at risk for costly care to select target populations for interventions to reduce health care burden. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with incremental health care costs after accounting for claims-based predictors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Index examinations (2002 to 2011) of 4 prospective cohort studies linked with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (4318 women, 3847 men). MEASUREMENTS: Weighted (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Category index) and unweighted (count of conditions) multimorbidity and frailty indicators derived from claims. Self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing 4 activities of daily living) and frailty phenotype (operationalized using 5 components) derived from cohort data. Health care costs ascertained for 36 months after index examinations. RESULTS: Average annualized costs (2020 U.S. dollars) were $13 906 among women and $14 598 among men. After accounting for claims-based indicators, average incremental costs of functional impairments versus no impairment in women (men) were $3328 ($2354) for 1 impairment increasing to $7330 ($11 760) for 4 impairments; average incremental costs of phenotypic frailty versus robust in women (men) were $8532 ($6172). Mean predicted costs adjusted for claims-based indicators in women (men) varied by both functional impairments and the frailty phenotype ranging from $8124 ($11 831) among robust persons without impairments to $18 792 ($24 713) among frail persons with 4 impairments. Compared with the model with claims-derived indicators alone, this model resulted in more accurate cost prediction for persons with multiple impairments or phenotypic frailty. LIMITATION: Cost data limited to participants enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service program. CONCLUSION: Self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with higher subsequent health care expenditures in community-dwelling beneficiaries after accounting for several claims-based indicators of costs. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Recent sarcopenia definitions-prevalence, agreement and mortality associations among men: Findings from population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The 2019 European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP2) and the Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (SDOC) have recently proposed sarcopenia definitions. However, comparisons of the performance of these approaches in terms of thresholds employed, concordance in individuals and prediction of important health-related outcomes such as death are limited. We addressed this in a large multinational assembly of cohort studies that included information on lean mass, muscle strength, physical performance and health outcomes. METHODS: White men from the Health Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study, Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts (Sweden, USA), the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) and the Sarcopenia and Physical impairment with advancing Age (SarcoPhAge) Study were analysed. Appendicular lean mass (ALM) was ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and usual gait speed over courses of 2.4-6 m. Deaths were recorded and verified. Definitions of sarcopenia were as follows: EWGSOP2 (grip strength <27 kg and ALM index <7.0 kg/m2 ), SDOC (grip strength <35.5 kg and gait speed <0.8 m/s) and Modified SDOC (grip strength <35.5 kg and gait speed <1.0 m/s). Cohen's kappa statistic was used to assess agreement between original definitions (EWGSOP2 and SDOC). Presence versus absence of sarcopenia according to each definition in relation to mortality risk was examined using Cox regression with adjustment for age and weight; estimates were combined across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of participants (n = 9170) was 74.3 (4.9) years; 5929 participants died during a mean (SD) follow-up of 12.1 (5.5) years. The proportion with sarcopenia according to each definition was EWGSOP2 (1.1%), SDOC (1.7%) and Modified SDOC (5.3%). Agreement was weak between EWGSOP2 and SDOC (κ = 0.17). Pooled hazard ratios (95% CI) for mortality for presence versus absence of each definition were EWGSOP2 [1.76 (1.42, 2.18), I2 : 0.0%]; SDOC [2.75 (2.28, 3.31), I2 : 0.0%]; and Modified SDOC [1.93 (1.54, 2.41), I2 : 58.3%]. CONCLUSIONS: There was low prevalence and poor agreement among recent sarcopenia definitions in community-dwelling cohorts of older white men. All indices of sarcopenia were associated with mortality. The strong relationship between sarcopenia and mortality, regardless of the definition, illustrates that identification of appropriate management and lifecourse intervention strategies for this condition is of paramount importance.

Cardiovascular disease, muscle function, and long-term falls risk: The Perth Longitudinal Study of Ageing Women.

BACKGROUND: A few cross-sectional studies have highlighted inconsistent associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and musculoskeletal conditions. We sought to investigate the relationship between clinical CVD including subtypes, compromised muscle function, as well as incident self-reported and injurious falls in older women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 1431 community-dwelling older women (mean age ± SD; 75.2 ± 2.7 years) were included in over 14.5 years of a prospective study, the Perth Longitudinal Study of Ageing in Women. CVD (up to 18-years prior to the baseline visit) and injurious fall hospitalizations over 14.5 years were obtained from linked health records. Self-reported falls for five years were obtained via a written adverse event diary posted every four months. Timed-Up-and-Go (TUG) test and hand grip strength were used to assess mobility and muscle strength, respectively. Mobility impairment was defined as TUG performance >10.2 sec and muscle weakness characterized as grip strength <22 kg. RESULTS: Over 5-years, 411 (28.7%) women reported a falls, while 567 (39.6%) were hospitalized due to an injurious fall over 14.5 years. Prior CVD events were associated with 32% (HR 1.32 95%CI, 1.06-1.64) and 29% (HR 1.29 95%CI, 1.07-1.56) increased risk of self-reported and injurious falls, respectively, in multivariable-adjusted models. When considering subtypes of CVD, only cerebrovascular disease was related to self-reported (HR 1.77; 95%CI, 1.15-2.72) and injurious falls requiring hospitalization (HR 1.51; 95%CI, 1.00-2.27). CVD was also associated with cross-sectional and prospective mobility impairments. However, no evidence for such relationships was observed for muscle weakness. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalent CVD events, particularly cerebrovascular disease, are related to an increased risk of long-term falls. These findings highlight the need to recognize increased falls risk in patients with CVD. Further, there is a need to understand whether incorporating prevalent CVD into falls screening tools improves risk stratification or affects model calibration.

The Association of Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity With Clinical Hip Osteoarthritis in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures and the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study Cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic dysregulation frequently co-occurs with obesity, which has been shown to be a risk factor for lower extremity osteoarthritis (OA). We evaluated the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS), alone and in combination with obesity, and hip OA. METHODS: In two parallel cross-sectional analyses, we studied 403 women from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) and 2354 men from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study. We used multivariable logistic regression to evaluate associations of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 ) and/or MetS (three of five National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) with clinical hip OA, defined as a modified Croft score of 2 or more or total hip replacement, and pain or limited range of motion. Our analysis adjusted for demographics. RESULTS: Approximately 3.5% of SOF women and 5.4% of MrOS men had clinical hip OA. Among women, obesity was not associated with hip OA, yet those with MetS had a 365% higher odds of hip OA (95% CI: 1.37-15.83). Among men, those who had obesity had a 115% higher odds of hip OA (95% CI: 1.39-3.32), yet MetS was not associated with hip OA. There was no interaction between MetS, obesity, and hip OA in either women or men. CONCLUSION: In women, but not in men, MetS was associated with hip OA. In men, but not in women, obesity was associated with hip OA. These findings suggest that mechanical effects of obesity may predominate in the pathogenesis of hip OA in men, whereas metabolic effects predominate in women.

Long-term changes of cognitive impairment among older breast cancer survivors.

PURPOSE: Cancer-related cognitive impairment is common during cancer treatment; however, it is unclear whether the impairment persists over time. Our study aimed to examine long-term cognitive impairment among older breast cancer survivors. METHODS: Participants included 2420 community-dwelling women aged 65 years or older at enrollment (1986-1988) (404 breast cancer cases and 1:5 matched cancer-free controls) from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. Participants were followed for 20 years with measured cognitive function repeated up to 6 times. Cognitive impairment was defined by the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination and Trail Making Test B. Generalized linear models were used to model risk of cognitive impairment in relation to breast cancer status and time from breast cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: Compared with controls, cognitive impairment in women with breast cancer significantly accelerated after cancer diagnosis. We also observed a more pronounced cognitive impairment after cancer diagnosis for women diagnosed with breast cancer at age ≥ 80 years or at advanced stage for both measures. CONCLUSION: Our study with more than 20 years of follow-up data found that breast cancer survivors had accelerated cognitive impairment after cancer diagnosis, especially among women diagnosed at older age or at advanced stage, relative to women without cancer. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Breast cancer survivors may be encouraged to engage in both physical activity and cognitive training.

Hyperkyphosis and mortality risk in older men: The osteoporotic fractures in men study.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperkyphosis commonly affects older people but is not widely acknowledged as a clinically actionable problem, especially in men. There are several techniques to quantify kyphosis including the blocks and Cobb angle measurements. This study includes both kyphosis measures to investigate whether older men with accentuated kyphosis may be at increased mortality risk. METHODS: Men aged ≥65 years (N = 5994) were recruited to participate in the MrOS prospective cohort study from 2000 to 2002 (baseline). Our primary cohort included 2931 enrollees (mean age 79.3 years; SD 5.2) who underwent blocks-measured kyphosis from 2006 to 2009. Our secondary cohort included 2351 participants who underwent radiographic Cobb angle measurements at baseline. Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to determine association between kyphosis and all-cause mortality while adjusting for prevalent radiographic vertebral fractures, bone mineral density, incident fractures, gait speed, timed chair stands, self-reported health, alcohol use, medical co-morbidities, and physical activity. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 8.3 (SD 3.2) years, 1393 participants died in the primary cohort. In this group, compared to men with 0-1 block kyphosis, increasing blocks-measured kyphosis was associated with increased mortality (HR: 1.26-1.53, p trend <0.001). With addition of prevalent vertebral fracture to adjusted models, the association remained significant in participants with severe kyphosis (3+ blocks-measured). Similarly, with addition of chair stand performance the association remained significant for 4+ blocks kyphosis. Walking speed did not attenuate the association of kyphosis and mortality. In the secondary cohort, there were no significant associations between radiographic Cobb angle kyphosis and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing blocks-measured kyphosis was associated with a greater risk of mortality in older men, indicating that hyperkyphosis identified on physical exam should be considered a clinically significant finding that may warrant further evaluation and treatment.