Traffic-related air pollution and dementia incidence in the Adult Changes in Thought Study.

BACKGROUND: While epidemiologic evidence links higher levels of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to decreased cognitive function, fewer studies have investigated links with traffic-related air pollution (TRAP), and none have examined ultrafine particles (UFP, ≤100 nm) and late-life dementia incidence. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations between TRAP exposures (UFP, black carbon [BC], and nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) and late-life dementia incidence. METHODS: We ascertained dementia incidence in the Seattle-based Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) prospective cohort study (beginning in 1994) and assessed ten-year average TRAP exposures for each participant based on prediction models derived from an extensive mobile monitoring campaign. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate TRAP exposure and dementia incidence using age as the time axis and further adjusting for sex, self-reported race, calendar year, education, socioeconomic status, PM2.5, and APOE genotype. We ran sensitivity analyses where we did not adjust for PM2.5 and other sensitivity and secondary analyses where we adjusted for multiple pollutants, applied alternative exposure models (including total and size-specific UFP), modified the adjustment covariates, used calendar year as the time axis, assessed different exposure periods, dementia subtypes, and others. RESULTS: We identified 1,041 incident all-cause dementia cases in 4,283 participants over 37,102 person-years of follow-up. We did not find evidence of a greater hazard of late-life dementia incidence with elevated levels of long-term TRAP exposures. The estimated hazard ratio of all-cause dementia was 0.98 (95 % CI: 0.92-1.05) for every 2000 pt/cm3 increment in UFP, 0.95 (0.89-1.01) for every 100 ng/m3 increment in BC, and 0.96 (0.91-1.02) for every 2 ppb increment in NO2. These findings were consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. DISCUSSION: We did not find evidence of a greater hazard of late-life dementia risk with elevated long-term TRAP exposures in this population-based prospective cohort study.

Comparison of Trihalomethane exposure assessment metrics in epidemiologic analyses of reproductive and developmental outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Researchers have developed exposure assessment metrics for disinfection by-products (DBPs) utilizing drinking water monitoring data and accounting for spatial and temporal variability, water consumption, and showering and bathing time with an expectation of decreasing exposure misclassification compared to the use of measured concentrations at public water supply (PWS) monitoring locations alone. OBJECTIVE: We used exposure data collected for a previous study of DBPs to evaluate how different sources of information impact trihalomethane (THM) exposure estimates. METHODS: We compared gestational exposure estimates to THMs based on water utility monitoring data alone, statistical imputation of daily concentrations to incorporate temporal variability, and personal water consumption and use (bathing and showering). We used Spearman correlation coefficients and ranked kappa statistics to compare exposure classifications. RESULTS: Exposure estimates based on measured or imputed daily THM concentrations, self-reported consumption, or bathing and showering differed substantially from estimates based solely on concentrations from PWS quarterly monitoring reports. Ranked exposure classifications, high to low quartiles or deciles, were generally consistent across each exposure metric (i.e., a subject with "high" exposure based on measured or imputed THM concentrations generally remained in the "high" category across exposure metrics.) The measured concentrations and imputed daily (i.e., spline regression) concentrations were highly correlated (r = 0.98). The weighted kappa statistics comparing exposure estimates using different exposure metrics ranged from 0.27 to 0.89, with the highest values for the ingestion + bathing/showering metrics compared to metrics for bathing/showering only (0.76 and 0.89). Bathing and showering contributed the most to "total" THM exposure estimates. IMPACT STATEMENT: We compare exposure metrics capturing temporal variability and multiple estimates of personal THM exposure with THM concentrations from PWS monitoring data. Our results show exposure estimates based on imputed daily concentrations accounting for temporal variability were very similar to the measured THM concentrations. We observed low agreement between imputed daily concentrations and ingestion-based estimates. Considering additional routes of exposure (e.g., inhalation and dermal) slightly increased agreement with the measured PWS exposure estimate in this population. Overall, the comparison of exposure assessment metrics allows researchers to understand the added value of additional data collection for future epidemiologic analyses of DBPs.

A science-based agenda for health-protective chemical assessments and decisions: overview and consensus statement.

The manufacture and production of industrial chemicals continues to increase, with hundreds of thousands of chemicals and chemical mixtures used worldwide, leading to widespread population exposures and resultant health impacts. Low-wealth communities and communities of color often bear disproportionate burdens of exposure and impact; all compounded by regulatory delays to the detriment of public health. Multiple authoritative bodies and scientific consensus groups have called for actions to prevent harmful exposures via improved policy approaches. We worked across multiple disciplines to develop consensus recommendations for health-protective, scientific approaches to reduce harmful chemical exposures, which can be applied to current US policies governing industrial chemicals and environmental pollutants. This consensus identifies five principles and scientific recommendations for improving how agencies like the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approach and conduct hazard and risk assessment and risk management analyses: (1) the financial burden of data generation for any given chemical on (or to be introduced to) the market should be on the chemical producers that benefit from their production and use; (2) lack of data does not equate to lack of hazard, exposure, or risk; (3) populations at greater risk, including those that are more susceptible or more highly exposed, must be better identified and protected to account for their real-world risks; (4) hazard and risk assessments should not assume existence of a "safe" or "no-risk" level of chemical exposure in the diverse general population; and (5) hazard and risk assessments must evaluate and account for financial conflicts of interest in the body of evidence. While many of these recommendations focus specifically on the EPA, they are general principles for environmental health that could be adopted by any agency or entity engaged in exposure, hazard, and risk assessment. We also detail recommendations for four priority areas in companion papers (exposure assessment methods, human variability assessment, methods for quantifying non-cancer health outcomes, and a framework for defining chemical classes). These recommendations constitute key steps for improved evidence-based environmental health decision-making and public health protection.

Comparative susceptibility of children and adults to neurological effects of inhaled manganese: A review of the published literature.

BACKGROUND: Manganese (Mn) is neurotoxic in adults and children. Current assessments are based on the more extensive adult epidemiological data, but the potential for greater childhood susceptibility remains a concern. To better understand potential lifestage-based variations, we compared susceptibilities to neurotoxicity in children and adults using Mn biomarker data. METHODS: We developed a literature search strategy based on a Population, Exposures, Comparators, and Outcomes statement focusing on inhalation exposures and neurological outcomes in humans. Screening was performed using DistillerSR. Hair biomarker studies were selected for evaluation because studies with air measurements were unavailable or considered inadequate for children. Studies were paired based on concordant Mn source, biomarker, and outcome. Comparisons were made based on reported dose-response slopes (children vs. adults). Study evaluation was conducted to understand the confidence in our comparisons. RESULTS: We identified five studies evaluating seven pairings of hair Mn and neurological outcomes (cognition and motor effects) in children and adults matched on sources of environmental Mn inhalation exposure. Two Brazilian studies of children and one of adults reported intelligent quotient (IQ) effects; effects in both comparisons were stronger in children (1.21 to 2.03-fold difference). In paired analyses of children and adults from the United States, children exhibited both stronger and weaker effects compared to adults (0.37 to 1.75-fold differences) on postural sway metrics. CONCLUSION: There is limited information on the comparative susceptibility of children and adults to inhaled Mn. We report that children may be 0.37 to 2.03 times as susceptible as adults to neurotoxic effects of Mn, thereby providing a quantitative estimate for some aspects of lifestage variation. Due to the limited number of paired studies available in the literature, this quantitative estimate should be interpreted with caution. Our analyses do not account for other sources of inter-individual variation. Additional studies of Mn-exposed children with direct air concentration measurements would improve the evidence base.

Application of probabilistic methods to address variability and uncertainty in estimating risks for non-cancer health effects.

Human health risk assessment currently uses the reference dose or reference concentration (RfD, RfC) approach to describe the level of exposure to chemical hazards without appreciable risk for non-cancer health effects in people. However, this "bright line" approach assumes that there is minimal risk below the RfD/RfC with some undefined level of increased risk at exposures above the RfD/RfC and has limited utility for decision-making. Rather than this dichotomous approach, non-cancer risk assessment can benefit from incorporating probabilistic methods to estimate the amount of risk across a wide range of exposures and define a risk-specific dose. We identify and review existing approaches for conducting probabilistic non-cancer risk assessments. Using perchloroethylene (PCE), a priority chemical for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the Toxic Substances Control Act, we calculate risk-specific doses for the effects on cognitive deficits using probabilistic risk assessment approaches. Our probabilistic risk assessment shows that chronic exposure to 0.004 ppm PCE is associated with approximately 1-in-1,000 risk for a 5% reduced performance on the Wechsler Memory Scale Visual Reproduction subtest with 95% confidence. This exposure level associated with a 1-in-1000 risk for non-cancer neurocognitive deficits is lower than the current RfC for PCE of 0.0059 ppm, which is based on standard point of departure and uncertainty factor approaches for the same neurotoxic effects in occupationally exposed adults. We found that the population-level risk of cognitive deficit (indicating central nervous system dysfunction) is estimated to be greater than the cancer risk level of 1-in-100,000 at a similar chronic exposure level. The extension of toxicological endpoints to more clinically relevant endpoints, along with consideration of magnitude and severity of effect, will help in the selection of acceptable risk targets for non-cancer effects. We find that probabilistic approaches can 1) provide greater context to existing RfDs and RfCs by describing the probability of effect across a range of exposure levels including the RfD/RfC in a diverse population for a given magnitude of effect and confidence level, 2) relate effects of chemical exposures to clinical disease risk so that the resulting risk assessments can better inform decision-makers and benefit-cost analysis, and 3) better reflect the underlying biology and uncertainties of population risks.

A systematic evidence map for the evaluation of noncancer health effects and exposures to polychlorinated biphenyl mixtures.

Assessing health outcomes associated with exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) is important given their persistent and ubiquitous nature. PCBs are classified as a Group 1 carcinogen, but the full range of potential noncancer health effects from exposure to PCBs has not been systematically summarized and evaluated. We used systematic review methods to identify and screen the literature using combined manual review and machine learning approaches. A protocol was developed that describes the literature search strategy and Populations, Exposures, Comparators, and Outcomes (PECO) criteria used to facilitate subsequent screening and categorization of literature into a systematic evidence map of PCB exposure and noncancer health endpoints across 15 organs/systems. A comprehensive literature search yielded 62,599 records. After electronic prioritization steps, 17,037 studies were manually screened at the title and abstract level. An additional 900 studies identified by experts or supplemental searches were also included. After full-text screening of 3889 references, 1586 studies met the PECO criteria. Relevant study details such as the endpoints assessed, exposure duration, and species were extracted into literature summary tables. This review compiles and organizes the human and mammalian studies from these tables into an evidence map for noncancer health endpoints and PCB mixture exposure to identify areas of robust research as well as areas of uncertainty that would benefit from future investigation. Summary data are available online as interactive visuals with downloadable metadata. Sufficient research is available to inform PCB hazard assessments for most organs/systems, but the amount of data to inform associations with specific endpoints differs. Furthermore, despite many years of research, sparse data exist for inhalation and dermal exposures, which are highly relevant human exposure routes. This evidence map provides a foundation for future systematic reviews and noncancer hazard assessments of PCB mixtures and for strategic planning of research to inform areas of greater uncertainty.

Use of systematic evidence maps within the US environmental protection agency (EPA) integrated risk information system (IRIS) program: Advancements to date and looking ahead.

Systematic evidence maps (SEMs) are increasingly used to inform decision-making and risk management priority-setting and to serve as problem formulation tools to refine the focus of questions that get addressed in full systematic reviews. Within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), SEMs have been used to inform data gaps, determine the need for updated assessments, inform assessment priorities, and inform development of study evaluation considerations, among other uses. Increased utilization of SEMs across the environmental health field has the potential to increase transparency and efficiency for data gathering, problem formulation, read-across, and evidence surveillance. Use of the SEM templates published in the companion text (Thayer et al.) can promote harmonization in the environmental health community and create more opportunities for sharing extracted content.

Systematic evidence map (SEM) template: Report format and methods used for the US EPA Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) program, Provisional Peer Reviewed Toxicity Value (PPRTV) program, and other "fit for purpose" literature-based human health analyses.

BACKGROUND: Systematic evidence maps (SEMs) are gaining visibility in environmental health for their utility to serve as problem formulation tools and assist in decision-making, especially for priority setting. SEMs are now routinely prepared as part of the assessment development process for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and Provisional Peer Reviewed Toxicity Value (PPRTV) assessments. SEMs can also be prepared to explore the available literature for an individual chemical or groups of chemicals of emerging interest. OBJECTIVES: This document describes the typical methods used to produce SEMs for the IRIS and PPRTV Programs, as well as "fit for purpose" applications using a variety of examples drawn from existing analyses. It is intended to serve as an example base template that can be adapted as needed for the specific SEM. The presented methods include workflows intended to facilitate rapid production. The Populations, Exposures, Comparators and Outcomes (PECO) criteria are typically kept broad to identify mammalian animal bioassay and epidemiological studies that could be informative for human hazard identification. In addition, a variety of supplemental content is tracked, e.g., studies presenting information on in vitro model systems, non-mammalian model systems, exposure-level-only studies in humans, pharmacokinetic models, and absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). The availability of New Approach Methods (NAMs) evidence is also tracked (e.g., high throughput, transcriptomic, in silico, etc.). Genotoxicity studies may be considered as PECO relevant or supplemental material, depending on the topic and context of the review. Standard systematic review practices (e.g., two independent reviewers per record) and specialized software applications are used to search and screen the literature and may include the use of machine learning software. Mammalian bioassay and epidemiological studies that meet the PECO criteria after full-text review are briefly summarized using structured web-based extraction forms with respect to study design and health system(s) assessed. Extracted data is available in interactive visual formats and can be downloaded in open access formats. Methods for conducting study evaluation are also presented which is conducted on a case-by-case basis, depending on the usage of the SEM.

Lead exposure and antisocial behavior: A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Lead exposure remains highly prevalent worldwide despite decades of research highlighting its link to numerous adverse health outcomes. In addition to well-documented effects on cognition, there is growing evidence of an association with antisocial behavior, including aggression, conduct problems, and crime. An updated systematic review on this topic, incorporating study evaluation and a developmental perspective on the outcome, can advance the state of the science on lead and inform global policy interventions to reduce exposure. OBJECTIVES: We aim to evaluate the link between lead exposure and antisocial behavior. This association will be investigated via a systematic review of human epidemiological and experimental nonhuman mammalian studies. METHODS: The systematic review protocol presented in this publication is informed by recommendations for the conduct of systematic reviews in toxicology and environmental health research (COSTER) and follows the study evaluation approach put forth by the U.S. EPA Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) program. DATA SOURCES: We will search the following electronic databases for relevant literature: PubMed, BIOSIS and Web of Science. Search results will be stored in EPA's Health and Environmental Research Online (HERO) database. STUDY ELIGIBILITY AND CRITERIA: Eligible human epidemiological studies will include those evaluating any population exposed to lead at any lifestage via ingestion or inhalation exposure and considering an outcome of antisocial behavior based on any of the following criteria: psychiatric diagnoses (e.g., oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), disruptive behavior disorders (DBD)); violation of social norms (e.g., delinquency, criminality); and aggression. Eligible experimental animal studies will include those evaluating nonhuman mammalian studies exposed to lead via ingestion, inhalation, or injection exposure during any lifestage. The following outcomes will be considered relevant: aggression; antisocial behavior; and altered fear, anxiety, and stress response. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Screening will be conducted with assistance from an artificial intelligence application. Two independent reviewers for each data stream (human, animal) will screen studies with highest predicted relevance against pre-specified inclusion criteria at the title/abstract and full-text level. Study evaluation will be conducted using methods adapted from the U.S. EPA IRIS program. After data extraction, we will conduct a narrative review and quantitative meta-analysis on the human epidemiological studies as well as a narrative review of the experimental animal studies. We will evaluate the strength of each evidence stream separately and then will develop a summary evidence integration statement based on inference across evidence streams.