NT-proBNP and Cardiac Troponin I, but Not Cardiac Troponin T, Are Associated With 7-Year Changes in Cardiac Structure and Function in Older Adults: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Higher circulating concentrations of NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI) are associated with left ventricular remodeling and with incident heart failure. The associations of these cardiac biomarkers with changes in cardiac structure and function over time are uncharacterized. METHODS: Among 2006 participants in the ARIC prospective cohort study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) who were free of overt cardiovascular disease and underwent echocardiography at study visits 5 (2011- 2013) and 7 (2018-2019), we assessed the associations of NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, and hs-cTnI concentrations at visit 5 with changes in left ventricular structure and function between visits 5 and 7 (≈7-year change) using multivariable linear regression with the biomarkers modeled as restricted cubic splines. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, body mass index, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and renal function at visit 5; blood pressure and heart rate at both visits; and the baseline value of the echocardiographic parameter of interest. RESULTS: Mean±SD age was 74±4 years at visit 5; 61% were women; and 23% were Black adults. Median (25th-75th percentile) concentrations at visit 5 of NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, and hs-cTnI were 87 ng/L (50-157 ng/L), 9 ng/L (6-12 ng/L), and 2.6 ng/L (1.9-3.9 ng/L). In adjusted models, elevated baseline concentrations of NT-proBNP and hs-cTnI were significantly associated with 7-year decline in left ventricular systolic function (ejection fraction, longitudinal and circumferential strain) and worsening diastolic indices. In contrast, elevated baseline concentrations of hs-cTnT were not significantly associated with 7-year changes in cardiac structure, systolic function, or diastolic function (all P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Higher concentrations of NT-proBNP and hs-cTnI, but not hs-cTnT, were associated with greater declines in left ventricular function over ≈7 years in late life independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.AQ.

Association of left atrial function with frailty: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is common in people with cardiovascular disease. Worse left atrial (LA) function is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, whether worse LA function is associated with frailty is unclear. METHODS: We included 3292 older adults from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study who were non-frail at baseline (visit 5, 2011-2013) and had LA function (reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain) measured from two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiography. LA stiffness index was calculated as a ratio of E/e' to LA reservoir strain. Frailty was defined using the validated Fried frailty phenotype. Incident frailty was assessed between 2016 and 2019 during two follow-up visits. LA function was analyzed as quintiles. Multivariable logistic regression examined odds of incident frailty. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 74 (71-77) years, 58% were female, and 214 (7%) participants developed frailty during a median (IQR) follow-up of 6.3 (5.6-6.8) years. After adjusting for baseline confounders and incident cardiovascular events during follow-up, the odds of developing frailty was 2.42 (1.26-4.66) times greater among participants in the lowest (vs highest) quintile of LA reservoir strain and 2.41 (1.11-5.22) times greater among those in the highest (vs lowest) quintile of LA stiffness index. Worse LA function was significantly associated with the development of exhaustion, but not the other components of the Fried frailty phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: Worse LA function is associated with higher incidence of frailty and exhaustion component independent of LA size and left ventricular function. Future studies are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms that drive the observed association.

Drug-Drug Interactions and the Clinical Tolerability of Colchicine Among Patients With COVID-19: A Secondary Analysis of the COLCORONA Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Colchicine has many drug-drug interactions with commonly prescribed medications. Only pharmacokinetic studies have provided data on colchicine drug-drug interactions. Objective: To evaluate the clinical tolerability of colchicine according to the presence or absence of a drug-drug interaction. Design, Setting, and Participants: A secondary analysis of the COLCORONA trial was performed. The COLCORONA trial was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted in Brazil, Canada, Greece, South Africa, Spain, and the US between March 23, 2020, and January 20, 2021. The COLCORONA trial included ambulatory patients with COVID-19 with at least 1 high-risk characteristic and compared the effects of colchicine (0.5 mg twice daily for 3 days, then 0.5 mg daily thereafter) with placebo for 27 days. Data analysis was performed from February 24, 2023, to June 20, 2024. Exposure: In this secondary analysis, baseline medications that had interactions with colchicine were identified using a previously published expert classification. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome for this analysis was the composite of serious and nonserious treatment-related and treatment-unrelated gastrointestinal adverse events. The secondary outcomes were other adverse events and the composite of death or hospital admission due to COVID-19 infection. Logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, diabetes, heart failure, and myocardial infarction were assessed for effect modification of the association between the randomization arm and the outcomes of interest by drug-drug interaction status. Results: The cohort included 2205 participants in the colchicine arm and 2227 in the placebo arm (median age, 54 [IQR, 47-61] years; 2389 [54%] women). The most common colchicine drug-drug interactions were rosuvastatin (12%) and atorvastatin (10%). In fully adjusted models, the odds of any gastrointestinal adverse event were 1.80 (95% CI, 1.51-2.15) times higher in the colchicine arm than the placebo arm among people without a drug-drug interaction and 1.68 (95% CI, 1.24-2.26) times higher in the colchicine arm than the placebo arm among people with a drug-drug interaction (P = .69 for interaction). Drug-drug interaction status did not significantly modify the effect of colchicine on the composite of COVID-19 hospitalization or death (odds ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.59-1.40 for drug-drug interaction and 0.84; 95% CI, 0.60-1.19 for no drug-drug interaction; P = .80 for interaction). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of the COLCORONA trial, operational classification of drug interactions system class 3 or 4 drug-drug interactions did not appear to significantly increase the risk of colchicine-related adverse effects. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04322682.

Sex differences in cardiac structure and function following acute myocardial infarction: Insights from the PARADISE-MI echocardiographic substudy.

AIMS: The incidence of heart failure hospitalization is higher in women than in men after myocardial infarction (MI). Sex-related differences in left ventricular (LV) remodelling may contribute to the differences in post-MI outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess sex differences in echocardiographic parameters post-MI, and whether the relationship between echocardiographic parameters and clinical outcomes differs by sex. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the PARADISE-MI trial, patients were randomized to sacubitril/valsartan or ramipril within 0.5 to 7 days of high-risk MI. In the pre-specified echocardiographic substudy, 544 patients underwent echocardiography at the time of randomization and after 8 months. We compared key echocardiographic parameters in men and women and their association with primary composite outcome (cardiovascular death or incident heart failure). At baseline, women had higher LV ejection fraction (LVEF), lower LV end-diastolic volume (LVEDV) index, LV end-systolic volume (LVESV) index, and LV mass index. After adjusting for baseline clinical differences, changes in these echocardiographic parameters from baseline to 8 months were not significantly different in women versus men. Lower LVEF, higher LVEDV, LVESV, left atrial volume index, and average E/e' were associated with a higher risk of the primary composite outcome. Sex did not modify the relationship between echocardiographic parameters and clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Despite baseline differences in measures of cardiac function between men and women following acute high-risk MI, there were no significant sex-related changes in chamber size or LV function. Sex did not modify the association between echocardiographic parameters and clinical outcome.

Association of central arterial stiffness with atrial myopathy: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

Atrial myopathy-defined as abnormal left atrial (LA) size and function-is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and dementia. Central arterial stiffness is associated with increased atrial afterload and fibrosis and may be a risk factor for atrial myopathy. We examined the association of carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) with LA function and assessed potential causal relationships. We included 2825 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants from Visit 5 (2011-2013). cfPWV was related to echocardiographic LA function continuously per 1-SD and categorically in quartiles. Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed using U.K. Biobank-derived genetic variants associated with arterial stiffness index and cardiac magnetic resonance measures of LA function. When analyzed per SD increment (297.6 cm/s), higher cfPWV was significantly associated with lower LA reservoir and conduit strain (ß = -0.53%, 95% CI [-0.81, -0.25] and ß = -0.46%, 95% CI [-0.68, -0.25], respectively) after adjusting for demographics, clinical characteristics, systolic blood pressure, and left ventricular (LV) morphology and function. In MR analyses there was a non-significant inverse association of arterial stiffness index with LA total, passive, and active emptying fractions. Higher cfPWV is associated with lower LA reservoir and conduit strain, independent of systolic blood pressure and LV morphology and function. No evidence for a causal relationship between arterial stiffness index and alterations in LA function was found. Future studies should examine the prospective association of central arterial stiffness with LA function alterations.

Relationship Between Cardiac Structure and Function With Renal Function Trajectory and Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure: Insights From the PARAGON-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: Renal dysfunction is common and associated with a poor prognosis in patients with heart failure. However, the association of cardiac structure and function with decline in kidney function in this population is unknown. We aimed to assess the association between individual measures of cardiac structure and function with changes in renal function and renal outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. METHODS: Patients enrolled in the PARAGON-HF (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin-Receptor Blockers Global Outcomes in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction) echocardiographic substudy were included. The association between each echocardiographic parameter (expressed in standardized units) and changes over time in estimated glomerular filtration rate was calculated with repeated-measures mixed-effect models. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify individual cardiac parameters associated with the composite renal outcome (≥50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate relative to baseline, development of end-stage renal disease, or death attributable to renal causes), after adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: Among 1097 patients (mean age 74±8 years and 53% women), over a median follow-up of 2.9 years, 28 composite renal events (0.9 per 100 person-years) occurred. Higher left ventricular (LV) mass index and higher E/average e' ratio were associated with significantly more profound annual decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (for both, -0.4 [95% CI, -0.7 to -0.1] mL/min/1.73 m2/y per 1 higher SD). Higher LV mass index, LV end-diastolic volume index, right ventricular end-diastolic area, and a lower right ventricular fractional area change were each associated with a significantly higher risk for the composite renal outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In the PARAGON-HF echocardiographic substudy, higher LV mass and filling pressures were independently associated with more profound kidney function decline, and higher LV mass and volume, as well as impaired right ventricular structure and function, were each associated with renal events. Assessing these parameters may help identify patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction at higher risk for adverse renal events and indicate potential therapeutic targets. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01920711.

Cardiac Mechanics and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in a Community-Based Cohort of Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of cardiac structure and function improves risk prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in different populations. We aimed to comprehensively compare standard and newer measures of cardiac structure and function in improving prediction of AF in a cohort of older adults without history of AF and stroke. METHODS: We included 5050 participants without prevalent AF and stroke (mean age 75 ± 5 years, 59% women and 22% Black) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who underwent complete 2-dimensional echocardiography, including speckle-tracking analysis of the left ventricle (LV) and left atrium (LA). We assessed the association of cardiac measures with incident AF (including atrial flutter) and quantified the extent to which these measures improved model discrimination and risk classification of AF compared with the CHARGE-AF score. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up time of 7 years, 676 participants developed AF (incidence rate, 2.13 per 100 person-years). LV mass index and wall thickness, E/e' and measures of LA structure and function, but not LV systolic function, were associated with incident AF, after accounting for confounders. Above all, LA reservoir strain, contraction strain, and LA minimal volume index (C-statistics [95%Confidence interval]: 0.73 [0.70,0.75], 0.72 [0.70,0.75] and 0.72 [0.69,0.75], respectively) significantly improved the risk discrimination of the CHARGE-AF score (baseline C-statistic: 0.68 [0.65,0.70]) and achieved the highest category-based net reclassification improvement (29%, 24% and 20%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of older adults without prevalent AF and stroke, measures of LA function improved the prediction of AF more than other conventional cardiac measures.

Association of Left Atrial Function With Incident Chronic Kidney Disease in Older Adults.

Objective: To examine the association of left atrial (LA) function with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) and assess the clinical utility of adding LA function to a CKD risk prediction equation. Patients and Methods: We included 4002 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants without prevalent CKD (mean ± SD age, 75±5 years; 58% female, 18% Black). Left atrial function (reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain) was evaluated by 2D-echocardiograms on 2011 to 2013. Chronic kidney disease was defined as greater than 25% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, end-stage kidney disease, or hospital records. Cox proportional hazards models were used. Risk prediction and decision curve analyses evaluated 5-year CKD risk by diabetes status. Results: Median follow-up was 7.2 years, and 598 participants developed incident CKD. Incidence rate for CKD was 2.29 per 100 person-years. After multivariable adjustments, the lowest quintile of LA reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain (vs highest quintile) had a higher risk of CKD (hazard ratios [95% CIs]: 1.94 [1.42-2.64], 1.62 [1.19-2.20], and 1.49 [1.12-1.99]). Adding LA reservoir strain to the CKD risk prediction equation variables increased the C-index by 0.026 (95% CI: 0.005-0.051) and 0.031 (95% CI: 0.006-0.058) in participants without and with diabetes, respectively. Decision curve analysis found the model with LA reservoir strain had a higher net benefit than the model with CKD risk prediction equation variables alone. Conclusion: Lower LA function is independently associated with incident CKD. Adding LA function to the CKD risk prediction enhances prediction and yields a higher clinical net benefit. These findings suggest that impaired LA function may be a novel risk factor for CKD.

Chest Symptoms and Long-Term Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: We sought to evaluate the associations of chest pain and dyspnea with the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease including coronary disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and stroke. METHODS: In 13,200 participants without cardiovascular disease in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (1987-1989), chest pain was categorized into definite angina, possible angina, non-anginal chest pain, and no chest pain using the Rose questionnaire. Dyspnea was categorized into grades 3-4, 2, 1, and 0 by the modified Medical Research Council scale. The associations of chest pain and dyspnea with incident myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and stroke over a median follow-up of ∼27 years were quantified with multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: Definite angina and possible angina were associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratios [HR] 1.80 [95%CI 1.45-2.13] and 1.65 [1.27-2.15]). Although lesser magnitude than myocardial infarction, both definite and possible angina were associated with heart failure. For atrial fibrillation, possible angina showed higher HR than definite angina. Dyspnea showed similar HRs for myocardial infarction and heart failure in grades 3-4 (2.00 [1.61-2.49] and 1.94 [1.62-2.32]). Stroke was least associated with chest symptoms. Chest pain and dyspnea significantly improved the discrimination of cardiovascular disease except stroke, beyond traditional risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: In individuals without cardiovascular disease, chest pain and dyspnea were independently associated with incident cardiovascular disease for about 3 decades, suggesting the need for evaluating chest pain from a broader perspective of cardiovascular disease beyond coronary disease and the importance of dyspnea for cardiovascular risk assessment including myocardial infarction.

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic overlap in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: Cardiac structure and function, clinical outcomes, and response to sacubitril/valsartan in PARAGON-HF.

AIMS: Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) multimorbidity is prevalent among individuals with heart failure (HF), but whether cardiac structure and function, clinical outcomes, and treatment response to sacubitril/valsartan vary in relation to CKM status is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this PARAGON-HF post-hoc analysis, we evaluated the impact of CKM multimorbidity (atherosclerotic cardiovascular [CV] disease, chronic kidney disease, and type 2 diabetes) on cardiac structure and function, clinical outcomes, and treatment effects of sacubitril/valsartan versus valsartan. The primary outcome was a composite of total HF hospitalizations and CV death. Secondary outcomes included the individual components of the primary outcome and a composite kidney outcome (sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction of ≥50%, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney-related death). At baseline, 35.2% had one CKM condition, 33.3% had two, 15.9% had three, and only 15.6% had HF alone. CKM multimorbidity was associated with higher septal and posterior wall thickness, lower global longitudinal strain, higher E/e', and worse right ventricular function. Total HF hospitalizations or CV death increased with greater CKM multimorbidity, with the highest relative risk observed with three CKM conditions (rate ratio 3.06, 95% confidence interval 2.33-4.03), compared with HF alone. Treatment effects of sacubitril/valsartan were consistent irrespective of the number of CKM conditions for the primary endpoint (pinteraction = 0.75), CV death (pinteraction = 0.82), total HF hospitalizations (pinteraction = 0.67), and the composite kidney endpoint (pinteraction = 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic multimorbidity was common in PARAGON-HF and associated with adverse changes in cardiac structure and function and with a stepwise increase in risk of clinical outcomes. Treatment effects of sacubitril/valsartan were consistent irrespective of CKM burden. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01920711.

High Throughput Plasma Proteomics and Risk of Heart Failure and Frailty in Late Life.

Importance: Heart failure (HF) and frailty frequently coexist and may share a common pathobiology, although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding these mechanisms may provide guidance for preventing and treating both conditions. Objective: To identify shared pathways between incident HF and frailty in late life using large-scale proteomics. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, 4877 aptamers (Somascan v4) were measured among participants in the community-based longitudinal Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) cohort study at visit 3 (V3; 1993-1995; n = 10 638) and at visit 5 (V5; 2011-2013; n = 3908). Analyses were externally replicated among 3189 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Data analysis was conducted from February 2022 to June 2023. Exposures: Protein aptamers, measured at study V3 and V5. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes assessed included incident HF hospitalization after V3 and after V5, prevalent frailty at V5, and incident frailty between V5 and visit 6 (V6; 2016-2017; n = 4131). Frailty was assessed using the Fried criteria. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race, field center, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, prevalent coronary heart disease, prevalent atrial fibrillation, and history of myocardial infarction. Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to assess potential causal effects of candidate proteins on HF and frailty. Results: A total of 4877 protein aptamers were measured among 10 638 participants at V3 (mean [SD] age, 60 [6] years; 4886 [46%] men). Overall, 286 proteins were associated with incident HF after V3 (822 events; P < 1.0 × 10-5), 83 of which were also associated with incident after V5 (336 events; P < 1.7 × 10-4). Among HF-free participants at V5 (n = 3908; mean [SD] age, 75 [5] years; 1861 [42%] men), 48 of 83 HF-associated proteins were associated with prevalent frailty (223 cases; P < 6.0 × 10-4), 18 of which were also associated with incident frailty at V6 (152 cases; P < 1.0 × 10-3). These proteins enriched fibrosis and inflammation pathways and demonstrated stronger associations with incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) than HF with reduced ejection fraction. All 18 proteins were associated with both prevalent frailty and incident HF in CHS. MR identified potential causal effects of several proteins on frailty and HF. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the proteins associated with risk of HF and frailty enrich for pathways related to inflammation and fibrosis as well as risk of HFpEF. Several of these proteins could potentially contribute to the shared pathophysiology of frailty and HF.

Association of Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure With Left Atrial Function in the Setting of Normal Left Atrial Size: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Lower left atrial (LA) function is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease events; data on risk factors for impaired LA function are limited. We evaluated the effect of cumulative systolic blood pressure (cSBP) from midlife to older age on LA strain in adults with normal LA size. METHODS: We included participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study with LA strain measured on the visit 5 echocardiogram (2011-13), excluding those with atrial fibrillation and LA volume index >34 mL/m2. The cSBP was calculated from visit 1 (1987-89) through visit 5. Linear regression models were used to evaluate associations between cSBP and LA strain measures. RESULTS: A total of 3,859 participants with a mean (SD) age of 75.2 (5.0) years were included in the analysis; 725 (18.8%) were Black and 2,342 (60.7%) were women. After adjusting for demographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, heart failure, and coronary heart disease, each 10 mm Hg increase in cSBP was associated with 0.32% (95% CI, -0.52%, -0.13%) and 0.37% (95% CI, -0.51%, -0.22%) absolute reduction in LA reservoir and conduit strain, respectively. Associations were attenuated after adjustment for left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and mass (-0.12%: 95% CI, -0.31, 0.06 for reservoir strain; and -0.24%: 95% CI -0.38%, -0.10% for conduit strain). In subgroup analyses, the association of cSBP with conduit strain was statistically significant among those with normal LV systolic and diastolic function. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative exposure to elevated blood pressure from midlife to late life was modestly associated with lower LA reservoir and conduit strain in older adults with normal LA size, mostly related to the effect of blood pressure on LV function and mass. However, the association of cSBP and LA conduit strain in subgroups with normal LV function suggests that LA remodeling in response to hypertension occurs before LV dysfunction is detected on echocardiography.

Metabolomic Association and Risk Prediction With Heart Failure in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Older adults have markedly increased risks of heart failure (HF), specifically HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Identifying novel biomarkers can help in understanding HF pathogenesis and improve at-risk population identification. This study aimed to identify metabolites associated with incident HF, HFpEF, and HF with reduced ejection fraction and examine risk prediction in older adults. METHODS: Untargeted metabolomic profiling was performed in Black and White adults from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) visit 5 (n=3719; mean age, 75 years). We applied Cox regressions to identify metabolites associated with incident HF and its subtypes. The metabolite risk score (MRS) was constructed and examined for associations with HF, echocardiographic measures, and HF risk prediction. Independent samples from visit 3 (n=1929; mean age, 58 years) were used for replication. RESULTS: Sixty metabolites (hazard ratios range, 0.79-1.49; false discovery rate, <0.05) were associated with incident HF after adjusting for clinical risk factors, eGFR, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Mannonate, a hydroxy acid, was replicated (hazard ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.19-1.56]) with full adjustments. MRS was associated with an 80% increased risk of HF per SD increment, and the highest MRS quartile had 8.7× the risk of developing HFpEF than the lowest quartile. High MRS was also associated with unfavorable values of cardiac structure and function. Adding MRS over clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP improved 5-year HF risk prediction C statistics from 0.817 to 0.850 (∆C, 0.033 [95% CI, 0.017-0.047]). The association between MRS and incident HF was replicated after accounting for clinical risk factors (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Novel metabolites associated with HF risk were identified, elucidating disease pathways, specifically HFpEF. An MRS was associated with HF risk and improved 5-year risk prediction in older adults, which may assist at at-risk population identification.

Clinical implications of subclinical left ventricular dysfunction in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: The PARAGON-HF study.

AIMS: Left ventricular (LV) subclinical impairment has been described in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We assessed the relationship between LV myocardial deformation by strain imaging and recurrent hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or cardiovascular death in a large international HFpEF population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed two-dimensional speckle-tracking based global longitudinal strain (GLS) in 790 patients (mean age 74 ± 8 years, 54% female) with adequate image quality enrolled in the PARAGON-HF echocardiography study. We examined the relationship of GLS with total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death (the primary composite outcome) after accounting for clinical confounders. Approximately 47% of the population had evidence of LV subclinical dysfunction, defined as absolute GLS <16%. Impaired GLS was significantly associated with higher values of circulating baseline N-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide. After a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there were 407 total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular deaths. After multivariable adjustment, worse GLS was associated with a greater risk for the primary composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio per 1% decrease: 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.11; p = 0.008). GLS did not modify the treatment effect of sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan for the composite outcome (p for interaction >0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In a large HFpEF population, impaired LV function was observed even among patients with preserved ejection fraction, and was associated with an increased risk of total HF hospitalizations or cardiovascular death, accounting for clinical confounders. These findings highlight the key role of subtle LV systolic impairment in the pathophysiology of HFpEF.

A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk-factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident HF and its subtypes in bi-racial populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, and T2D in White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The associations between PRSs and incident HF and its subtypes were assessed using Cox models, and the risk prediction performance of PRSs was assessed using C statistics. Replication was performed in the ARIC study Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participants. In 8624 ARIC study Whites, 1922 (31% cumulative incidence) HF cases developed over 30 years of follow-up. PRSs of AF, BMI, and CHD were associated with incident HF (P < 0.001), where PRSAF showed the strongest association [hazard ratio (HR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41-1.53]. Only the addition of PRSAF to the ARIC study HF risk equation improved C statistics for 10 year risk prediction from 0.812 to 0.829 (∆C: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.009-0.026). The PRSAF was associated with both incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.27-1.60) and incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33-1.62). The associations between PRSAF and incident HF and its subtypes, as well as the improved risk prediction, were replicated in the ARIC study Blacks and the CHS Whites (P < 0.050). Protein analyses revealed that N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and other 98 proteins were associated with PRSAF. CONCLUSIONS: The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation.

Large-Scale Proteomics Identifies Novel Biomarkers and Circulating Risk Factors for Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding risk factors for aortic stenosis (AS). The plasma proteome is a promising phenotype for discovery of novel biomarkers and potentially causative mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to discover novel biomarkers with potentially causal associations with AS. METHODS: We measured 4,877 plasma proteins (SomaScan aptamer-affinity assay) among ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study participants in mid-life (visit 3 [V3]; n = 11,430; age 60 ± 6 years) and in late-life (V5; n = 4,899; age 76 ± 5 years). We identified proteins cross-sectionally associated with aortic valve (AV) peak velocity (AVmax) and dimensionless index by echocardiography at V5 and with incident AV-related hospitalization after V3 with the use of multivariable linear and Cox proportional hazard regression. We assessed associations of candidate proteins with changes in AVmax over 6 years and with AV calcification with the use of cardiac computed tomography, replicated analysis in an independent sample, performed Mendelian randomization, and evaluated gene expression in explanted human AV tissue. RESULTS: Fifty-two proteins cross-sectionally were associated with AVmax and dimensionless index at V5 and with risk of incident AV-related hospitalization after V3. Among 3,413 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, 6 of those proteins were significantly associated with adjudicated moderate or severe AS, including matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP12), complement C1q tumor necrosis factor-related protein 1 (C1QTNF1), and growth differentiation factor-15. MMP12 was also associated with greater increase in AVmax over 6 years, greater degree of AV calcification, and greater expression in calcific compared with normal or fibrotic AV tissue. C1QTNF1 had consistent potential causal effects on both AS and AVmax according to Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings identify MMP12 as a potential novel circulating biomarker of AS risk and C1QTNF1 as a new putative target to prevent AS progression.

Plasma Ferritin Levels, Incident Heart Failure, and Cardiac Structure and Function: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether iron deficiency contributes to incident heart failure (HF) and cardiac dysfunction has important implications given the prevalence of iron deficiency and the availability of several therapeutics for iron repletion. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate the associations of plasma ferritin level with incident HF overall, HF phenotypes, and cardiac structure and function measures in older adults. METHODS: Participants in the ongoing, longitudinal ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study who were free of prevalent HF and anemia were studied. The associations of plasma ferritin levels with incident HF overall and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Linear regression models estimated the cross-sectional associations of plasma ferritin with echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function. RESULTS: The cohort included 3,472 individuals with a mean age of 75 ± 5 years (56% women, 14% Black individuals). In fully adjusted models, lower ferritin was associated with higher risk for incident HF overall (HR: 1.20 [95% CI: 1.08-1.34] per 50% lower ferritin level) and higher risk for incident HFpEF (HR: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.09-1.50]). Associations with incident HFrEF were not statistically significant. Lower ferritin levels were associated with higher E/e' ratio and higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure after adjustment for demographics and HF risk factors but not with measures of left ventricular structure or systolic function. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults without prevalent HF or anemia, lower plasma ferritin level is associated with a higher risk for incident HF, HFpEF, and higher measures of left ventricular filling pressure.

Large scale plasma proteomics identifies novel proteins and protein networks associated with heart failure development.

Heart failure (HF) causes substantial morbidity and mortality but its pathobiology is incompletely understood. The proteome is a promising intermediate phenotype for discovery of novel mechanisms. We measured 4877 plasma proteins in 13,900 HF-free individuals across three analysis sets with diverse age, geography, and HF ascertainment to identify circulating proteins and protein networks associated with HF development. Parallel analyses in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants in mid-life and late-life and in Trøndelag Health Study participants identified 37 proteins consistently associated with incident HF independent of traditional risk factors. Mendelian randomization supported causal effects of 10 on HF, HF risk factors, or left ventricular size and function, including matricellular (e.g. SPON1, MFAP4), senescence-associated (FSTL3, IGFBP7), and inflammatory (SVEP1, CCL15, ITIH3) proteins. Protein co-regulation network analyses identified 5 modules associated with HF risk, two of which were influenced by genetic variants that implicated trans hotspots within the VTN and CFH genes.