Climate change profiles of New Zealanders over time: a one-year latent transition analysis of climate change beliefs and concern.

Scientific evidence unequivocally shows that human activities cause climate change, but some people still deny it. Using New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study data from 2018 and 2019 (N = 34,733), we examined segmentation profiles regarding beliefs and concern about climate change ('Climate change is real', 'Climate change is caused by humans', 'I am deeply concerned about climate change'), the probabilities of transitioning to and from profiles over time, and the characteristics of individuals in each profile. Five profiles were identified with varying levels of climate change beliefs and concern. The largest profile (60.4% of respondents) had the highest levels of climate change beliefs and concern, while the smallest profile (3.7% of respondents) had the lowest. Over time, more people moved from profiles of lower into profiles of higher levels of climate change beliefs and concern. The profile with the highest levels was the most stable, with members having an 82.7% chance of staying in this profile over time. Compared to this group, members of the profile with the lowest levels of climate change beliefs and concern were more likely to be male, New Zealand European, parents, religious, and to endorse conservative and system-justifying ideologies. We discuss the implications of the findings.

Higher levels of social support predict lower psychological distress for Pacific peoples living in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Recent research indicates that rates of psychological distress are almost 1.5 times higher for adult Pacific peoples versus non-Pacific peoples1. Leveraging data from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study and utilising cross-lagged regression modelling, we examined changes in psychological distress across time for adult Pacific peoples in Aotearoa New Zealand (n = 514). Our study found that experiences of psychological distress were associated with a greater likelihood of experiencing psychological distress in the future. Additionally, experiencing higher levels of social support was associated with a lower likelihood of experiencing psychological distress in the future. Our research is vital because psychological distress is a serious mental health issue, and research that signals protective factors towards psychological distress for our Pacific peoples can help in creating better mental health outcomes for our Pacific communities. Preview on terminology: We use the term Pacific peoples, which are inclusive of a group of people in Aotearoa New Zealand that have ethnic roots from many Pacific nations. Unless a research study specifically uses the term mental illness or mental disorder, the study uses the terms mental distress and mental health issues/concerns to broadly refer to diagnosis of a mental illness or any other challenges or experiences with mental health. The choice in terminology is to shift the focus away from a deficit model of health, to those that are more consistent with Pacific views of health and wellbeing1.

Are there potential costs for humility in a pluralistic democracy?: A longitudinal investigation of immigrants in the New Zealand attitudes and values study.

Introduction: In this longitudinal study, we examine the potential costs and benefits of humility for well-being and civic trust among immigrants in a pluralistic democracy. Methods: With data from 14,864 immigrant participants from a nationwide random sample in New Zealand, we used multilevel modeling to examine the associations of general humility (i.e., honesty-humility modesty) with well-being (life satisfaction and meaning) and civic trust (trust in police) over time in contexts with varying levels of ethnic deprivation and perceived religious discrimination. We hypothesized that (a) humility would correlate positively with well-being and civic trust (Hypothesis 1), (b) these associations would be attenuated in the contexts where perceptions of ethnic deprivation and religious discrimination are high (Hypothesis 2), and (c) these interaction effects would become more pronounced when cultural identities are salient (Hypothesis 3). Results: Multilevel modeling revealed partial support for these hypotheses. Although humility correlated positively with well-being and trust in police over time, the two-way and three-way interactions did not yield substantial support for Hypotheses 2 and 3, respectively. The context of religious discrimination did, however, marginally attenuate the positive association between humility and trust in police. Discussion: Collectively, these results demonstrate that humility is associated with multiple benefits to well-being and civic trust and has few-if any-potential drawbacks.

Effects of Screen-Based Leisure Time on 24 Subsequent Health and Wellbeing Outcomes: A Longitudinal Outcome-Wide Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has shown that screen-based leisure time is related to physical and mental health, relationships, and prosocial behaviors. However, it remains unclear whether screen-based leisure time causally affects wellbeing, as previous studies have relied on cross-sectional data, focused on one type of media use (e.g., social media, video games, or internet), or assessed a narrow set of outcomes. METHOD: We used three waves (2016, 2017, 2019) of national longitudinal data from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study to investigate the effects of screen-based leisure time on 24 parameters of wellbeing (n = 11,085). We operationalized screen-based leisure as the sum of time spent browsing the internet, using social media, watching/reading the news, watching videos, and playing video games. We followed the outcome-wide analytic design for observational data by performing a series of multivariable regression models estimating the effect of screen-based leisure time on 24 wellbeing outcomes and assessed potential unmeasured confounding using sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In our primary analysis with the total sample, total screen-based leisure time was associated with a very modest decrease in body satisfaction and a very modest increase in body mass index. Possible evidence of associations was found with increases in number of hours spent exercising and volunteering each week, as well as decreases in number of average daily hours of sleep, self-control, and subjective health. CONCLUSION: Screen-based leisure time has the potential to affect health and wellbeing. Results are discussed in light of the high prevalence of screen-based leisure time.

Ethnic identity centrality across the adult lifespan: Aging, cohort, and period effects among majority and minority group members.

Ethnic identity is a major area of study across many disciplines including psychology, sociology, anthropology, and political science. Yet, little is known about changes in ethnic identity across the adult lifespan, and whether such changes are driven by normal aging processes (aging effects), unique societal influences linked with one's formative years (cohort effects), or social changes during a specific time frame (period effects). We address these key oversights by utilizing 13 annual waves of longitudinal panel data from a nationwide random sample of both ethnic majority (N = 49,660) and Indigenous ethnic minority (N = 8,325) group members in New Zealand to examine changes in ethnic identity centrality using cohort-sequential latent growth modeling. This approach helps to identify changes in mean levels of ethnic identity centrality over time and whether such changes are driven by aging, cohort, and/or period effects. Our data reveal that, among both ethnic majority and ethnic minority individuals, changes in ethnic identity centrality were informed by a combination of normative aging processes, societal circumstances that reflected the unique historical context in which people grew to maturity, and societal changes during the 13 annual assessments of our study. Collectively, these results demonstrate for the first time that ethnic identity centrality in adulthood is subject to lifelong changes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Yes, we can (but for different reasons): Collective narcissism is linked to different values but similar pro-ingroup collective action tendencies among disadvantaged and advantaged ethnic groups.

Collective narcissism, a belief that one's group is exceptional and entitled to special treatment but underappreciated by others, is related to important social and political outcomes but has been predominantly studied in advantaged groups. The present research compares the motivational correlates (through values) of collective narcissism in ethnic groups of different status (advantaged and disadvantaged) and explores its associations with attitudes towards, and intention to engage in collective action. Three studies examined these processes in different national and intergroup contexts (total N = 16,275). Overall, ethnic collective narcissism was linked to self-protective values (power, and less consistently, conservation) in advantaged groups but to universalism in disadvantaged groups. Moreover, in both advantaged and disadvantaged groups, ethnic collective narcissism was related to more positive attitudes towards, and intentions of pro-ingroup actions but not to attitudes towards (other) disadvantaged groups (i.e., intergroup solidarity). These studies suggest that collective narcissism may be associated with different motivations, yet linked to similar intergroup attitudes among advantaged and disadvantaged groups.

Disentangling the within- and between-person effects of personality on income for men and women.

Understanding the relationship between personality and income is a topic of interest across multiple disciplines. Correlations between people's personalities and their incomes may arise because differences in stable personalities relate to income differences (between-person effects) or because changes in personality or income are later reflected in the other variable (within-person effects). The current research uses random-intercept cross-lagged panel models to disentangle the two sorts of effects to better understand the relationship between the six factors of personality and income. Using data from 6824 working-age adults in New Zealand across 4 years, we found between-person effects showing higher incomes were obtained by both men and women who were more extraverted, agreeable and open, and less neurotic. Within-person effects showed that earning a higher income was associated with higher neuroticism and lower extraversion over time, while higher extraversion was associated with a lower income over time.

The anatomy of prejudice during pandemic lockdowns: Evidence from a national panel study.

During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a spike in the reporting of hate crimes (Human Rights Watch, 2020). However, the extent to which the pandemic affected prejudice across a general population-not merely among those disposed to hate crimes-remains unclear. Also unclear is the extent to which prejudice was restricted to specific minority groups associated with the virus, or whether prejudice spilled over to other minority groups. To address these questions, we use panel data collected from participants in a large national longitudinal (panel) study of New Zealanders before and during the early COVID-19 pandemic and systematically quantified social warmth ratings across a broad range of minority-groups (The New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, N = 30,327, years 2018-2020). We discover reduced warmth toward Chinese, Asians (broadly defined), immigrants, Muslims, refugees, Indians, and the mentally ill. In absolute terms, warmth towards Chinese decreased the most (0.11 SD). Notably, changes in warmth were not detected toward NZ Europeans, Maori, Pacific Islanders, the overweight, or the elderly. Overall, these findings suggest that in New Zealand, pandemic prejudice may spread beyond minority groups associated with the virus to other groups perceived as non-prototypical of national identity.

Psychological predictors of vaping uptake among non-smokers: A longitudinal investigation of New Zealand adults.

INTRODUCTION: Demographic and health factors are known to predict vaping. Less is known about psychological predictors of vaping uptake, particularly among non-smoking adults using longitudinal designs. We aimed to model how psychological factors related to personality and mental health predicted the likelihood of vaping uptake over time in non-smoking adults ages 18+ using longitudinal data. METHODS: Longitudinal regression models utilised data from the 2018-2020 waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study to assess how the Big Five personality traits, mental distress and self-control predicted who began vaping over time among non-users (non-vapers and non-smokers), controlling for gender, age, ethnicity and economic deprivation. RESULTS: Analyses included 36,309 adults overall (ages 18 to 99; M = 51.0). The number of non-users who transitioned into current vaping was small (transitioned from 2018 to 2019, n = 147; 0.48%; 2019 to 2020, n = 189, 0.63%). Fully adjusted models showed that adults with higher mental distress (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.88), lower self-control (aOR 0.79; 95% CI 0.69-0.89) and higher extraversion (aOR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.13) were more likely to begin vaping at the next time point compared to adults who remained non-users. Higher neuroticism and lower conscientiousness also predicted vaping uptake in initial models, but inclusion of mental distress and self-control superseded these traits. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Psychological factors related to mental distress, impulse control and sociability predicted who was more likely to begin vaping as non-smoking adults. Harm prevention interventions could target these factors to reduce vaping uptake in non-smokers.

The Even Shorter Almost Perfect Scale: Psychometric Evaluation and Cross-National Implications for Psychological Outcomes.

Short empirically-supported scales or individual items are preferred in comprehensive surveys, brief screeners, and experience sampling studies. To that end, we examined the Short Almost Perfect Scale (SAPS) to evaluate empirical support for the interchangeability of items to measure perfectionistic strivings (Standards) and perfectionistic concerns (Discrepancy). Based on a large and diverse sample (N = 1,103) and tests of tau-equivalence (equal factor loadings) for each respective set of items, Study 1 advanced a subset of SAPS items to measure Standards (2 items) and Discrepancy (3 items). Cross-sectional gender and race/ethnicity invariance were supported, and in structural equations analyses, the SAPS5 factors were significantly associated with depression, state anxiety, life satisfaction, and gratitude. Study 2 cross-validated Study 1 measurement and structural findings with a new U.S. sample (N = 803). The three items representing the Discrepancy (perfectionistic concerns) factor also were supported in a cross-national comparison between the U.S. sample and a scale development sample in New Zealand (N = 3,921). For the most part, across both studies and all analyses, the three Discrepancy items were empirically interchangeable indicators of perfectionistic concerns and comparably strong predictors of psychological outcomes, supporting their use in studies or other contexts with space or time restrictions for measurement.

Examining age, period and cohort effects in attitude change to childhood vaccinations in a representative New Zealand survey: a multiyear cohort-sequential growth modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccinations are an important preventative measure in reducing the spread of infectious diseases worldwide. However, concerns of undervaccination during childhood have become increasingly common. The current study aims to investigate changes in attitudes towards childhood vaccinations prior to the COVID-19 pandemic using a national sample from New Zealand. DESIGN: Age-based, period-based, and cohort-based changes were assessed using cohort-sequential latent growth modelling in 11 overlapping birth cohorts, which spanned the ages of 23-79 years. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were taken from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study where 58 654 adults completed at least one wave across a 7-year period (2013 and 2015-2019). RESULTS: The period-based and cohort-based models fit the data equally well (χ2(282)=8547.93, p<0.001, comparative fit index, CFI=0.894, root mean square error of approximation, (RMSEA)=0.074, standardised root mean square residual, SRMR=0.105; χ2(273)=8514.87, p<0.001, CFI=0.894, RMSEA=0.075, SRMR=0.105, respectively) suggesting societal factors contribute to childhood vaccination attitudes. Additionally, the findings suggest attitudes towards childhood vaccinations were becoming increasingly more positive in all birth cohorts (ps<0.001), with younger and older birth cohorts exhibiting even positive attitudes compared with middle-aged cohorts. CONCLUSION: Overall, both the cohort-based and period-based models reveal changes in vaccination attitudes suggesting that even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, societal influences had an impact on attitudes towards childhood vaccination.

The association between political orientation and political knowledge in 45 nations.

Political knowledge is crucial for well-functioning democracies, with most scholars assuming that people at the political extremes are more knowledgeable than those at the center. Here, we adopt a data-driven approach to examine the relationship between political orientation and political knowledge by testing a series of polynomial curves in 45 countries (N = 63,544), spread over 6 continents. Contrary to the dominant perspective, we found no evidence that people at the political extremes are the most knowledgeable about politics. Rather, the most common pattern was a fourth-degree polynomial association in which those who are moderately left-wing and right-wing are more knowledgeable than people at the extremes and center of the political spectrum. This pattern was especially, though not exclusively, prevalent in Western countries. We conclude that the relationship between political orientation and political knowledge is more context-dependent and complex than assumed, and caution against (implicit) universal conclusions in social sciences.

Damned if she does: The subordinate male target hypothesis and discrimination of social dominant female minority members.

According to the subordinate male target hypothesis (SMTH), racism is based on an ethnicity-by-gender interaction, with a stronger link between experiencing racist discrimination and subordinate or dominant ethnic group status for men compared to women. This study reevaluates the SMTH, originally focused on objective discrimination, by applying it to self-reported active harm as a theoretically derived measure of racist discrimination and by exploring interindividual differences in female ethnic minority members' discriminatory experiences. We proposed that social dominance orientation (SDO) among female ethnic minorities would influence SMTH predictions. We tested this using multiple linear regression analyses among a sample of New Zealand Europeans as the majority in New Zealand and non-Europeans as the minority. As hypothesized, male non-Europeans reported disproportionally more active harm than female non-Europeans. Unexpectedly, not only female but also male, non-Europeans high in SDO reported more active harm than non-Europeans low in SDO. Therefore, applied to self-reported racist experiences, oppression of ethnic minorities is driven by interindividual differences rather than by gender. Together, these findings provide evidence that the SMTH cannot be unreservedly extended to reports of racist discrimination and that other processes may underlie these subjective experiences of discrimination that need to be considered in more detail.

Fixed or Fluid? Sexual Identity Fluidity in a Large National Panel Study of New Zealand Adults.

Sexual orientation has been defined as an enduring aspect of the self, but emerging evidence reveals that people's sexual attractions, behaviors, and identities can shift over time. To examine this possibility, we present a large longitudinal analysis of sexual orientation identity fluidity among New Zealand adults (Ntotal = 45,856; age = 18-99; lesbian, gay, bisexual, and other sexual minority (LGB+) ns = 746-3,387). Over seven years, 5.7% of participants changed sexual identities at least once. Change was bi-directional (i.e. toward and away from LGB+ identities) and most common in people who initially reported a plurisexual identity. Although women reported higher rates of plurisexuality than men, they were not more fluid in their identities, contradicting the notion of male fixedness and female plasticity in sexuality. Moreover, openness to experience was associated with increased odds of changing from a heterosexual to a plurisexual identity, while political liberalism and lower conscientiousness were associated with increased odds of changing from a heterosexual to a plurisexual identity and more identity changes over time. Overall, our study shows that sexual identity can be fluid into adulthood and has implications for how we understand contemporary human sexuality.

Thinking twice: examining gender differences in repetitive negative thinking across the adult lifespan.

Background: A wealth of literature shows that women report greater levels of repetitive negative thinking, particularly rumination, than men in adolescence and adulthood. However, little research has examined how these gender differences develop or change across the entire adult lifespan. Methods: The present study addresses these oversights using a nationwide longitudinal probability sample of adults over 12 annual assessment points (N = 64,901; Mage = 42.50, range 18-81; 62.9% women) and a single-item measure of global repetitive negative thinking. Critically, we use multigroup cohort-sequential latent growth modeling to determine whether changes in this construct over time are due to (a) normative aging, (b) generational differences associated with the historical period one was born and raised in, or (c) a combination of these processes. Results: Our results reveal that rumination peaks in young adulthood for both women and men but declines steadily thereafter, reaching its lowest levels at the end of the adult lifespan. That said, some gender and cohort differences emerged, with young women-particularly young cohorts-reporting higher levels of rumination than their male counterparts and older birth cohorts. Discussion: Our study suggests that gender differences in rumination may be most prevalent among young birth cohorts, though future research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these processes.

Barriers to Biculturalism: Historical Negation and Symbolic Exclusion Predict Longitudinal Increases in Bicultural Policy Opposition.

The colonial ideologies of historical negation and symbolic exclusion (i.e., the "Dark Duo") promote inequality between settler colonizers and Indigenous peoples by denying the contemporary relevance of past injustices and excluding Indigenous culture from the nation's identity, respectively. Although their correlates are established, the temporal ordering of the relationship between the Dark Duo and bicultural policy opposition is unclear. We address this oversight by utilizing nine annual waves of panel data from a nationwide random sample of New Zealand adults (N = 31,104) to estimate two multigroup RI-CLPMs using the Dark Duo to predict symbolic and resource-based policy opposition (and vice versa). Results revealed that within-person increases in historical negation and symbolic exclusion predicted subsequent increases in symbolic and resource-based bicultural policy opposition for both majority and minority ethnic groups. These relationships were, however, bidirectional, demonstrating a self-perpetuating cycle, whereby the Dark Duo undermines biculturalism and antibiculturalism strengthens the Dark Duo.

Examining the indirect effect of income on well-being via individual-based relative deprivation: Longitudinal mediation with a random intercept cross-lagged panel model.

Although the positive relationship between income and well-being is well established, the psychological mechanisms underlying this process are less understood. One underexplored explanation is that objective wealth (or lack thereof) fosters relative comparisons, which, in turn, predicts well-being. Extant work has, however, mostly focused on objective indicators of relative deprivation rather than on how people perceive their societal status. We address this oversight by examining the longitudinal indirect effects of income on well-being via perceived individual-based relative deprivation (IRD) using traditional and random intercept cross-lagged panel models. Averaged across 10 annual assessments in a nationwide longitudinal panel sample of adults (N = 66,560), our results revealed reliable indirect effects of income on well-being via IRD. Specifically, within-person increases in income predicted within-person decreases in IRD, which then predicted within-person increases in personal well-being over time. Our results replicated across robustness checks, including one using a general life satisfaction measure. We thus extend previous work by highlighting the need to consider one's perceptions of their relative societal position as a mechanism underlying the effects of income on well-being over time.

Perceived Relative Deprivation Across the Adult Lifespan: An Examination of Aging and Cohort Effects.

Despite being a core psychological construct for over 70 years, research has yet to examine how perceptions of deprivation relative to other individuals and/or groups develop across adulthood. As such, this preregistered study uses cohort-sequential latent growth modeling to examine changes in individual- and group-based relative deprivation (IRD and GRD, respectively) across the adult lifespan. Across 10 annual assessments of a nationwide random sample of adults (Ntotal = 58,878; ethnic minority n = 11,927; 62.7% women; ages 21-80), mean levels of IRD trended downward across the lifespan, whereas mean levels of GRD generally increased from young-to-middle adulthood before declining across late adulthood. Subtle cohort effects emerged for both constructs, although both IRD and GRD largely followed a normative aging process. Critically, the development of GRD-but not IRD-differed between ethnic groups, providing insights into how one's objective status may shape subjective (dis)advantage over time.

Exposure to automation explains religious declines.

The global decline of religiosity represents one of the most significant societal shifts in recent history. After millennia of near-universal religious identification, the world is experiencing a regionally uneven trend toward secularization. We propose an explanation of this decline, which claims that automation-the development of robots and artificial intelligence (AI)-can partly explain modern religious declines. We build four unique datasets composed of more than 3 million individuals which show that robotics and AI exposure is linked to 21st-century religious declines across nations, metropolitan regions, and individual people. Key results hold controlling for other technological developments (e.g., electricity grid access and telecommunications development), socioeconomic indicators (e.g., wealth, residential mobility, and demographics), and factors implicated in previous theories of religious decline (e.g., individual choice norms). An experiment also supports our hypotheses. Our findings partly explain contemporary trends in religious decline and foreshadow where religiosity may wane in the future.

Long-term causal effects of far-right terrorism in New Zealand.

The Christchurch mosque attacks in 2019, committed by a radical right-wing extremist, resulted in the tragic loss of 51 lives. Following these events, there was a noticable rise in societal acceptance of Muslim minorities. Comparable transient reactions have been observed elsewhere. However, the critical questions remain: can these effects endure? Are enduring effects evident across the political spectrum? It is challenging to answer such questions because identifying long-term causal effects requires estimating unobserved attitudinal trajectories without the attacks. Here, we use six preattack waves of Muslim acceptance responses from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS) to infer missing counterfactual trajectories (NZAVS cohort 2012, N=4,865; replicated in 2013 cohort, N=7,894). We find (1) the attacks initially boosted Muslim acceptance; (2) the magnitude of the initial Muslim acceptance boost was similar across the political spectrum; (3) no changes were observed in negative control groups; and (4) two- and three-year effects varied by baseline political orientation: liberal acceptance was stable, conservative acceptance grew relative to the counterfactual trend. Overall, the attacks added five years of growth in Muslim acceptance, with no regression to preattack levels over time. Continued growth among conservatives highlights the attack's failure to divide society. These results demonstrate the utility of combining methods for causal inference with national-scale panel data to answer psychological questions of basic human concern.