RESUMEN
The aim of this study is to investigate the 14-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a risk score for T2DM in the Siberian cohort. A random population sample (males/females, 45-69 years old) was examined at baseline in 2003-2005 (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) project, n = 9360, Novosibirsk) and re-examined in 2006-2008 and 2015-2017. After excluding those with baseline T2DM, the final analysis included 7739 participants. The risk of incident T2DM during a 14-year follow-up was analysed using Cox regression. In age-adjusted models, male and female hazard ratios (HR) of incident T2DM were 5.02 (95% CI 3.62; 6.96) and 5.13 (95% CI 3.56; 7.37) for BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2; 4.38 (3.37; 5.69) and 4.70 (0.27; 6.75) for abdominal obesity (AO); 3.31 (2.65; 4.14) and 3.61 (3.06; 4.27) for fasting hyperglycaemia (FHG); 2.34 (1.58; 3.49) and 3.27 (2.50; 4.26) for high triglyceride (TG); 2.25 (1.74; 2.91) and 2.82 (2.27; 3.49) for hypertension (HT); and 1.57 (1.14; 2.16) and 1.69 (1.38; 2.07) for family history of diabetes mellitus (DM). In addition, secondary education, low physical activity (PA), and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were also significantly associated with T2DM in females. A simple T2DM risk calculator was generated based on non-laboratory parameters. A scale with the best quality included waist circumference >95 cm, HT history, and family history of T2DM (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71). The proposed 10-year risk score of T2DM represents a simple, non-invasive, and reliable tool for identifying individuals at a high risk of future T2DM.