Is the Current Cut Point for Glycated Haemoglobin (HbA1c) Correct for Diagnosing Diabetes Mellitus in Premenopausal Women? Evidence to Inform Discussion.

INTRODUCTION: Women are on average diagnosed with diabetes mellitus at later age than men but have higher mortality. As the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus is primarily based on HbA1c, the use of a non-specific reference range and cut point for diabetes mellitus that does not account for gender differences in diabetes could potentially lead to underdiagnosis of diabetes mellitus in women and missed opportunities for intervention. We investigated whether a contributing factor to the later diagnosis in women may be a difference in distribution of HbA1c in premenopausal women versus men of the same age by comparing HbA1c values in men and women across multiple sites in the UK. METHODS: We analysed the HbA1c levels of 146,907 individuals who underwent single testing only and had HbA1c ≤ 50 mmol/mol between 2012 and 2019 in one laboratory (cohort 1). This was replicated in six laboratories with 938,678 individuals tested between 2019 and 2021 (cohort 2). RESULTS: In cohort 1, women < 50 years old had an HbA1c distribution markedly lower than that in men by a mean of 1.6 mmol/mol (p < 0.0001), while the difference in the distribution of HbA1c for individuals aged ≥ 50 years was less pronounced (mean difference 0.9 mmol/mol, p < 0.0001). For individuals under the age of 50, HbA1c in women lagged by up to 10 years compared to men. Similar findings were found in cohort 2. We estimated an additional 17% (n = 34,953) of undiagnosed women aged < 50 years in England and Wales could be reclassified to have diabetes mellitus, which may contribute to up to 64% of the difference in mortality rates between men/women with diabetes mellitus aged 16-50 years. CONCLUSION: The HbA1c cut point for diagnosis of diabetes mellitus may need to be re-evaluated in women under the age of 50 years. Early identification of diabetes mellitus in women has the potential to improve women's health outcomes in the longer term.

Changes in prescribing of psychotropic vs some physical health medication in primary care through the COVID-19 pandemic in England: a national-level survey.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic globally impacted healthcare provision. Prescribing changes in common medications can be used as a marker for new diagnoses. We describe how the prescribing of specific psychotropics was impacted by the pandemic. METHODS: Primary Care Prescribing data for different classes of drugs from March 2017 to February 2022 were considered. To capture the impact during periods of restricted access to health services for new diagnoses/existing conditions, repeat prescriptions/episodic prescribing were included with account taken of historical trends. The pre-pandemic prescriptions issued each month from March 2018 to February 2020 were linearly extrapolated forward to give an expected annual growth (EAG). The monthly average expected prescriptions for the pandemic period (March 2020-February 2022) were compared. RESULTS: Physical health medications had lower monthly prescriptions during the pandemic, most markedly for antibiotics - 12.5% (EAG - 1.3%). Bronchodilator prescribing showed a marked increase in the early pandemic months from March 2020 of 5% (EAG 0.1%). Mental health medication prescribing increased above trend for hypnotics/anxiolytics by 0.2% (EAG - 2.3%), while antidepressants fell by - 0.2% (EAG 5.0%), with no net change for antipsychotics (EAG 2.8%), but a temporary increase in antipsychotic prescribing in the early pandemic period. For all the main antidepressants prescribed in England (Sertraline, Mirtazapine, Venlafaxine, Fluoxetine and Citalopram), prescribing actually decreased in the main pandemic period vs historical trend. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in anxiolytic/hypnotic prescribing above trend links to pandemic effects on anxiety/worry. If anything, there was a slight fall in prescribing of the main antidepressants prescribed, which given prevailing circumstances at the time, suggests that access to services may have restricted access to timely assessment.

Diabetes foot complications and standardized mortality rate in type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To quantify the impact of foot complications on mortality outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and how routinely measured factors might modulate that risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data for individuals with T2D for 2010-2020, from the Salford Integrated Care Record (Salford, UK), were extracted for laboratory and clinical data, and deaths. Annual expected deaths were taken from Office of National Statistics mortality data. An index of multiple deprivation (IMD) adjusted the standardized mortality ratio (SMR_IMD). Life years lost per death (LYLD) was estimated from the difference between expected and actual deaths. RESULTS: A total of 11 806 T2D patients were included, with 5583 new diagnoses and 3921 deaths during 2010-2020. The number of expected deaths was 2135; after IMD adjustment, there were 2595 expected deaths. Therefore, excess deaths numbered 1326 (SMR_IMD 1.51). No foot complications were evident in n = 9857. This group had an SMR_IMD of 1.13 and 2.74 LYLD. In total, 2979 patients had any foot complication recorded. In this group, the SMD_IMR was 2.29; of these, 2555 (75%) had only one foot complication. Patients with a foot complication showed little difference in percentage HbA1c more than 58 mmol/mol. In multivariate analysis, for those with a foot complication and an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of more than 3 mg/mmol, the odds ratio (OR) for death was 1.93, and for an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , the OR for death was 1.92. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with T2D but without a foot complication have an SMR_IMD that is only slightly higher than that of the general population. Those diagnosed with a foot complication have a mortality risk that is double that of those without T2D.

First episode psychosis and weight gain a longitudinal perspective in Cheshire UK: a comparison between individuals with nonaffective versus affective psychosis.

Early weight gain following initiation of antipsychotic treatment predicts longer-term weight gain, with attendant long-term consequences including premature cardiovascular events/death. An important question is whether there is a difference in weight change over time between people with affective versus nonaffective psychosis. Here we describe the results of a real-world analysis of the BMI change in the months postdiagnosis with affective versus nonaffective psychosis. Methods: We undertook an anonymised search across one Primary Care Network in Cheshire, UK with a total population of 32 301 individuals. We reviewed the health records of anyone who had been diagnosed over a 10-year period between June 2012 and June 2022 for the first time with first episode nonaffective psychosis versus psychosis associated with depression or bipolar affective disorder (affective psychosis). Results: The overall % change in BMI was +8% in nonaffective psychosis individuals and +4% in those with a diagnosis of affective psychosis - however, the distribution was markedly skewed for nonaffective psychosis patients. Using caseness as >30% increase in BMI; affective = 4% cases and nonaffective = 13% cases, there was a three-fold difference in terms of increase in BMI. In regression analysis, the r2 linking the initial BMI to % change in BMI was 0.13 for nonaffective psychosis and 0.14 for affective psychosis. Conclusion: The differences observed here in the distribution of weight change over time between individuals with affective versus nonaffective psychosis may relate to underlying constitutional differences. The phenotypic and genetic factors underlying this difference remain to be defined.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on HbA1c Testing: Prioritization of High-Risk Cases and Impact of Social Deprivation.

INTRODUCTION: Studies show that the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affected people with diabetes and those from disadvantaged backgrounds. During the first 6 months of the UK lockdown, > 6.6 M glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) tests were missed. We now report variability in the recovery of HbA1c testing, and its association with diabetes control and demographic characteristics. METHODS: In a service evaluation, we examined HbA1c testing across ten UK sites (representing 9.9% of England's population) from January 2019 to December 2021. We compared monthly requests from April 2020 to those in the equivalent 2019 months. We examined effects of (i) HbA1c level, (ii) between-practice variability, and (iii) practice demographics. RESULTS: In April 2020, monthly requests dropped to 7.9-18.1% of 2019 volumes. By July 2020, testing had recovered to 61.7-86.9% of 2019 levels. During April-June 2020, we observed a 5.1-fold variation in the reduction of HbA1c testing between general practices (12.4-63.8% of 2019 levels). There was evidence of limited prioritization of testing for patients with HbA1c > 86 mmol/mol during April-June 2020 (4.6% of total tests vs. 2.6% during 2019). Testing in areas with the highest social disadvantage was lower during the first lockdown (April-June 2020; trend test p < 0.001) and two subsequent periods (July-September and October-December 2020; both p < 0.001). By February 2021, testing in the highest deprivation group had a cumulative fall in testing of 34.9% of 2019 levels versus 24.6% in those in the lowest group. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight that the pandemic response had a major impact on diabetes monitoring and screening. Despite limited test prioritization in the > 86 mmol/mol group, this failed to acknowledge that those in the 59-86 mmol/mol group require consistent monitoring to achieve the best outcomes. Our findings provide additional evidence that those from poorer backgrounds were disproportionately disadvantaged. Healthcare services should redress this health inequality.

Saving the foot: Simple orthopaedic surgical intervention demonstrates improved outcomes and reduced costs.

BACKGROUND: Forefoot ulceration in diabetes requires significant resources, with high cost and low rates of success. The authors present the results of tendon procedures (percutaneous toe tenotomy and percutaneous tendo-achilles lengthening) under local anaesthetic to adjust mechanics in patients with diabetic neuropathic forefoot ulceration. METHODS: Retrospective review of electronic patient record of 19 patients (22 feet) undergoing local anaesthetic tendon procedures between April 2019 and April 2021 with a 12 month follow up period. Size of ulcer, rate of ulcer healing, complication rates and ulcer recurrence were recorded and compared to a population of conservatively-managed patients (14 patients, 15 feet) treated prior to the introduction of tendon procedures. All clinical information obtained from electronic patient records. RESULTS: All patients undergoing tendon procedures achieved complete ulcer healing at a mean time of 3.3 weeks for toe tip ulcers (after toe tenotomy) and 4.5 weeks for metatarsal head ulcers (after Achilles lengthening). There were no admissions for diabetic foot sepsis, reduced recurrence, reduced amputation rates and no mortality. Of the conservatively managed cohort, only 3 of the 15 achieved ulcer resolution without recurrence within the 12 month study period. The cohort managed conservatively had an average cost of £ 9902 per patient, per annum. The intervention cost was £ 1211 per patient, saving an average of £ 8691 per patient, per annum with ulcer resolution (88 % reduction in costs). CONCLUSION: Significant patient benefit, reduction in resource use and cost saving was seen with this simple intervention, which merits full evaluation in a clinical trial. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level-IV.

Assessment of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on UK HbA1c testing: implications for diabetes management and diagnosis.

AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic, and the focus on mitigating its effects, has disrupted diabetes healthcare services worldwide. We aimed to quantify the effect of the pandemic on diabetes diagnosis/management, using glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) as surrogate, across six UK centres. METHODS: Using routinely collected laboratory data, we estimated the number of missed HbA1c tests for 'diagnostic'/'screening'/'management' purposes during the COVID-19 impact period (CIP; 23 March 2020 to 30 September 2020). We examined potential impact in terms of: (1) diabetes control in people with diabetes and (2) detection of new diabetes and prediabetes cases. RESULTS: In April 2020, HbA1c test numbers fell by ~80%. Overall, across six centres, 369 871 tests were missed during the 6.28 months of the CIP, equivalent to >6.6 million tests nationwide. We identified 79 131 missed 'monitoring' tests in people with diabetes. In those 28 564 people with suboptimal control, this delayed monitoring was associated with a 2-3 mmol/mol HbA1c increase. Overall, 149 455 'screening' and 141 285 'diagnostic' tests were also missed. Across the UK, our findings equate to 1.41 million missed/delayed diabetes monitoring tests (including 0.51 million in people with suboptimal control), 2.67 million screening tests in high-risk groups (0.48 million within the prediabetes range) and 2.52 million tests for diagnosis (0.21 million in the pre-diabetes range; ~70 000 in the diabetes range). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings illustrate the widespread collateral impact of implementing measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 in people with, or being investigated for, diabetes. For people with diabetes, missed tests will result in further deterioration in diabetes control, especially in those whose HbA1c levels are already high.

Natural desiccated thyroid for the treatment of hypothyroidism?

Primary hypothyroidism affects about 3% of the general population in Europe. Early treatments in the late 19th Century involved subcutaneous as well as oral administration of thyroid extract. Until the early 1970s, the majority of people across the world with hypothyroidism were treated with natural desiccated thyroid (NDT) (derived from pig thyroid glands) in various formulations, with the majority of people since then being treated with levothyroxine (L-thyroxine). There is emerging evidence that may account for the efficacy of liothyronine (NDT contains a mixture of levothyroxine and liothyronine) in people who are symptomatically unresponsive to levothyroxine. While this is a highly selected group of people, the severity and chronicity of their symptoms and the fact that many patients have found their symptoms to be alleviated, can be viewed as valid evidence for the potential benefit of NDT when given after careful consideration of other differential diagnoses and other treatment options.

Associations and mitigations: an analysis of the changing risk factor landscape for chronic kidney disease in primary care using national general practice level data.

OBJECTIVES: Early recognition of chronic kidney disease (CKD) should be achieved by every modern healthcare system. The objective of this study was to investigate CKD risk factor trends in England using general practice level data. DESIGN: Observational analysis of data at practice level for all general practices in England. Practice characteristics identified as potential CKD risk factors included comorbidities and local demography. Data were analysed using both univariate and multivariate analysis to identify significant factors that were associated with CKD diagnosis for the period 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2020. SETTING: Publicly available data from UK primary care sources including Primary Care Quality and Outcomes Framework database, practice-level prescribing data from the British National Formulary and Public Health England health outcome data. PARTICIPANTS: All data submitted from 6471 medium to large practices in England were included (over 46 million patients). RISK FACTOR ANALYSIS: Potential risk factors were grouped into four classes based on existing literature: demographic factors, comorbidities, service and practice outcome factors, and prescribing data effects. RESULTS: The original model's prediction of CKD improved from r2 0.38 to an r2 of 0.66 when updated factors were included. Positive associations included known risk factors with higher relative risk such as hypertension and diabetes, along with less recognised factors such as depression and use of opiates. Negative associations included NSAIDs which are traditionally associated with increased CKD risk, and prescribing of antibiotics, along with more northerly locations. CONCLUSIONS: CKD is a preventable disease with high costs and consequences. These data and novel analysis give clearer relative risk values for different patient characteristics with some unexpected findings such as potential harmful association between CKD and opiates, and a more benign association with NSAIDs. A deeper understanding of CKD risk factors is important to update and implement local and national management strategies. Further research is required to establish the causal nature of these associations and to refine location appropriate actions to minimise harm from CKD on regional and local levels.

Distress and Living with Diabetes: Defining Characteristics Through an Online Survey.

INTRODUCTION: There is considerable evidence for diabetes reducing quality of life. The impact of such a diagnosis on mental health is less well understood and was subsequently explored here. METHODS: Online PHQ-9 scores (which calculate the severity of depression), Diabetes Distress Screening Scale (DDSS) and EQ-5D-5L (quality-of-life) questionnaires were completed by patients with diabetes, followed by the extraction of data where possible from responders' clinical records. RESULTS: A total of 133 people submitted questionnaires. However, not all data items could be completed by each patient; 35% (45/130) had type I diabetes mellitus (T1DM); 55% (64/117) were women. The overall median age of 117 responders was 60 (IQR 50-68 years). The median aggregated response scores were: EQ-5D-5L 0.74 (IQR 0.64-0.85) (lower quality of life than UK population median of 0.83), DDSS 1.9 (IQR1.3-2.7) (≥ 2 indicates moderate distress) and PHQ-9 5 (IQR2-11) (≥ 5 indicates depression). Higher diabetes distress (DDSS)/lower quality of life EQ-5D-5L/higher depressive symptoms (PHQ-9) linked to female sex (DDSS 0.5/25% above median), younger age (< 50 years DDSS 0.7/35% above median), fewer years after diagnosis (< 10 years DDSS 0.8/40% above median), and obesity (BMI > 35 DDSS 0.6/30% above median). Additionally, a HbA1c reading of ≤ 48 mmol/mol was associated with higher DDSS scores, as did a reduction of more than 5 mmol/mol in HbA1c over the last three HbA1c measurements. The 30 individuals with a history of prescribed antidepressant medication also showed higher diabetes distress scores (DDSS 0.9, equating to 45% above the median). The DDSS score elevation came from an increase in emotional burden and regimen-related distress. DDSS scores were not significantly linked to diabetes type, insulin use, absolute level/change in blood glucose HbA1c. Physician-related distress showed a similar pattern. CONCLUSIONS: A low level of stress in relation to diabetes management may be associated with lower HbA1c. The larger impact of diabetes on mental health in younger women/people with shorter diabetes duration should be noted when considering psychosocial intervention/behavior change messaging. Physician-related distress is a potentially remediable factor. However, this sample was self-selecting, limiting generalization to other samples.

Reducing fatigue-related symptoms in Long COVID-19: a preliminary report of a lymphatic drainage intervention.

In the early days of the first global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the potential for a postviral syndrome to manifest following COVID-19 infection was first recognized. Here, we present an analysis of a case series of the first 20 patients' data collected in clinical practice to evaluate the potential of a possible alternative treatment for Long COVID. Methods: Face-to-face treatment sessions with Perrin technique practitioners occurred weekly involving effleurage/other manual articulatory techniques. The individuals being treated also undertook daily self-massage along with gentle mobility exercises. Patients recorded symptom severity using the self-report 54-item profile of fatigue-related states (PFRS) before and after treatment. Results: The mean age of male patients was 41.8 years (range, 29-53 years), and for female patients, 39.3 years (range, 28-50 years). None of the participants had a prior diagnosis of chronic fatigue syndrome, and all were new attendees to the clinics at the time of initial assessment. The average number of treatment sessions was 9.7 in men and 9.4 in women. The reduction in PFRS scores was 45% in men and 52% in women. The highest subscale scores on average were for fatigue, with the lowest for somatic symptoms. All subscale scores showed, on average, a similar reduction of approximately 50% postintervention, with the reduction in score relating to a decrease in the severity of symptoms. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a specific manual lymphatic drainage intervention may help to reduce fatigue symptoms related to Long COVID. Perhaps preventing acute symptoms through early intervention.

Mortality Rate Associated with Diabetes: Outcomes From a General Practice Level Analysis in England Using the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Database Indicate Stability Over a 15 Year Period.

INTRODUCTION: Total population mortality rates have been falling and life expectancy increasing for more than 30 years. Diabetes remains a significant risk factor for premature death. Here we used the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) practices to determine diabetes-related vs non-diabetes-related mortality rates. METHODS: RCGP RSC data were provided on annual patient numbers and deaths, at practice level, for those with and without diabetes across four age groups (< 50, 50-64, 65-79, ≥ 80 years) over 15 years. Investment in diabetes control, as measured by the cost of primary care medication, was also taken from GP prescribing data. RESULTS: We included 527 general practices. Over the period 2004-2019, there was no significant change in life years lost, which varied between 4.6 and 5.1 years over this period. The proportion of all diabetes deaths by age band was significantly higher in the 65-79 years age group for men and women with diabetes than for their non-diabetic counterparts. For the year 2019, 26.6% of deaths were of people with diabetes. Of this 26.6%, 18.5% would be expected from age group and non-diabetes status, while the other 8.1% would not have been expected-pro rata to nation, this approximates to approximately 40,000 excess deaths in people with diabetes vs the general population. CONCLUSION: There remains a wide variation in mortality rate of people with diabetes between general practices in UK. The mortality rate and life years lost for people with diabetes vs non-diabetes individuals have remained stable in recent years, while mortality rates for the general population have fallen. Investment in diabetes management at a local and national level is enabling us to hold the ground regarding the life-shortening consequences of having diabetes as increasing numbers of people develop T2DM at a younger age.

The experience of blood glucose monitoring in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

BACKGROUND: Finger prick blood glucose (BG) monitoring remains a mainstay of management in people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) who take sulphonylurea (SU) drugs or insulin. We recently examined patient experience of BG monitoring in people with type 1 diabetes (T1DM). There has not been any recent comprehensive assessment of the performance of BG monitoring strips or the patient experience of BG strips in people with T2DM in the UK. METHODS: An online self-reported questionnaire containing 44 questions, prepared following consultation with clinicians and patients, was circulated to people with T2DM. 186 responders provided completed responses (25.5% return rate). Fixed responses were coded numerically (eg not confident = 0 fairly confident = 1). RESULTS: Of responders, 84% were treated with insulin in addition to other agents. 75% reported having had an HbA1c check in the previous 6 months. For those with reported HbA1c ≥ 65 mmol/mol, a majority of people (70%) were concerned or really concerned about the shorter term consequences of running a high HbA1c This contrasted with those who did not know their recent HbA1c, of whom only 33% were concerned/really concerned and those with HbA1c <65 mmol/mol of whom 35% were concerned. Regarding BG monitoring/insulin adjustment, only 25% of responders reported having sufficient information with 13% believing that the accuracy and precision of their BG metre was being independently checked. Only 9% recalled discussing BG metre accuracy when their latest metre was provided and only 7% were aware of the International Standardisation Organisation (ISO) standards for BG metres. 77% did not recall discussing BG metre performance with a healthcare professional. CONCLUSION: The group surveyed comprised engaged people with T2DM but even within this group there was significant variation in (a) awareness of shorter term risks, (b) confidence in their ability to implement appropriate insulin dosage (c) awareness of the limitations of BG monitoring technology. There is clearly an area where changes in education/support would benefit many.

Is there a role for natural desiccated thyroid in the treatment of levothyroxine unresponsive hypothyroidism? Results from a consecutive case series.

INTRODUCTION: Some levothyroxine unresponsive individuals with hypothyroidism are prescribed a natural desiccated thyroid (NDT) preparation such as Armour Thyroid® or ERFA Thyroid® . These contain a mixture of levothyroxine and liothyronine in a fixed ratio. We evaluated the response to NDT in individuals at a single endocrine centre in terms of how the change from levothyroxine to NDT impacted on their lives in relation to quality of life (QOL) and thyroid symptoms. METHODS: The ThyPRO39 (thyroid symptomatology) and EQ-5D-5L-related QoL/EQ5D5L (generic QOL) questionnaires were administered to 31 consecutive patients who had been initiated on NDT, before initiating treatment/6 months later. RESULTS: There were 28 women and 3 men. The dose range of NDT was 60-180 mg daily. Age range was 26-77 years with length of time since diagnosis with hypothyroidism ranging from 2 to 40 years. One person discontinued the NDT because of lack of response; two because of cardiac symptoms. EQ-5D-5L utility increased from a mean (SD) of 0.214 (0.338) at baseline, to 0.606 (0.248) after 6 months; corresponding to a difference of 0.392 (95% CI 0.241-0.542), t = 6.82, P < .001. EQ-VAS scores increased from 33.4 (17.2) to 71.1 (17.5), a difference of 37.7 (95% CI 25.2-50.2), t = -4.9, P < .001. ThyPRO scores showed consistent fall across all domains with the composite QoL-impact Score improving from 68.3 (95% CI 60.9-75.7) to 25.2 (95% CI 18.7-31.7), a difference of 43.1 (95% CI 33-53.2) (t = 5.6, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Significant symptomatic benefit and improvement in QOL was experienced by people with a history of levothyroxine unresponsive hypothyroidism treated with NDT, suggesting the need for further evaluation of NDT in this context.

Longitudinal clinical trajectory analysis of individuals before and after diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) indicates that vascular problems start early.

INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) frequently associates with increasing multi-morbidity/treatment complexity. Some headway has been made to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors for T2DM. However, longitudinal clinical histories of individuals both before and after diagnosis of T2DM are likely to provide additional insight into both diabetes aetiology/further complex trajectory of multi-morbidity. METHODS: This study utilised diabetes patients/controls enrolled in the DARE (Diabetes Alliance for Research in England) study where pre- and post-T2DM diagnosis longitudinal data was available for trajectory analysis. Longitudinal data of 281 individuals (T2DM n = 237 vs matched non-T2DM controls n = 44) were extracted, checked for errors and logical inconsistencies and then subjected to Trajectory Analysis over a period of up to 70 years based on calculations of the proportions of most prominent clinical conditions for each year. RESULTS: For individuals who eventually had a diagnosis of T2DM made, a number of clinical phenotypes were seen to increase consistently in the years leading up to diagnosis of T2DM. Of these documented phenotypes, the most striking were diagnosed hypertension (more than in the control group) and asthma. This trajectory over time was much less dramatic in the matched control group. Immediately prior to T2DM diagnosis, a greater indication of ischaemic heart disease proportions was observed. Post-T2DM diagnosis, the proportions of T2DM patients exhibiting hypertension and infection continued to climb rapidly before plateauing. Ischaemic heart disease continued to increase in this group as well as retinopathy, impaired renal function and heart failure. CONCLUSION: These observations provide an intriguing and novel insight into the onset and natural progression of T2DM. They suggest an early phase of potentially related disease activity well before any clinical diagnosis of diabetes is made. Further studies on a larger cohort of DARE patients are underway to explore the utility of establishing predictive risk scores.