Predicting Mycobacterium avium complex bacteremia in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus: a prospectively validated model.

In cases of advanced infection with human immunodeficiency virus, mycobacterial blood cultures are frequently used to diagnose disseminated infection with the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC). However, no prospectively validated guidelines exist for the use of such cultures. In this study, a two-part model for predicting MAC bacteremia was developed and then validated prospectively. First, a CD4+ cell count of < or = 50/microL was used to predict bacteremia. Then, among patients with < or = 50 CD4+ cells/microL, the documentation of fever on more than 30 days during the preceding 3 months, a hematocrit of < 30%, or a serum albumin concentration of < 3.0 g/dL was used to predict bacteremia. This model had a sensitivity of 89% and positive and negative predictive values of 30% and 98%, respectively, for the identification of patients with bacteremia. Had the model been applied to patients in this study, the number of blood cultures performed would have decreased by 61%, but 11% of the positive cultures would have been missed. In short, this model can predict MAC bacteremia and can potentially guide the use of mycobacterial blood cultures.

The impact of Mycobacterium avium complex bacteremia and its treatment on survival of AIDS patients--a prospective study.

It is currently recommended that patients with AIDS and Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) bacteremia receive antimycobacterial treatment. However, no study has prospectively evaluated the impact of this infection and its treatment on survival. This study prospectively followed a cohort of 367 AIDS patients with < or = 50 CD4+ cells/microL and found that MAC bacteremia was independently associated with an increased risk of death (relative hazard [RH] = 1.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3-2.4, P < .001). Patients with MAC bacteremia who were treated had a longer median survival than those who were not (263 vs. 139 days, P < .001); treatment was independently associated with a lower risk of death (RH = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.23-0.89, P < .001). However, 23% of patients with bacteremia died within 28 days of that diagnosis; few were treated. MAC bacteremia contributes to the death of patients with AIDS, and treatment increases survival. However, many patients will not survive long enough to receive treatment. These results underscore the importance of early diagnosis and chemoprophylaxis for MAC bacteremia.

Environmental risk factors for acquisition of Mycobacterium avium complex in persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection.

A case-control study was done to determine risk factors for Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) disease in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with < 50 CD4+ cells/mm3. In univariate analysis, cases (n = 83) had lower CD4+ cell counts than controls (n = 177) (median, 10 vs. 17/mm3; P < .001) and were more likely to have consumed hard cheese (odds ratio [OR], 5.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.61-18.4) but were less likely to have taken daily showers (OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.33-0.94). In multivariate analysis, CD4+ cell count < 25/mm3 (OR, 3.58; 95% CI, 1.71-7.49) and consumption of hard cheese (OR, 5.63; 95% CI, 1.58-20.1) remained associated with disease, while daily showering (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.28-0.88) remained protective. Increased risk for MAC disease in persons with HIV infection and low CD4+ cell counts is not associated with exposure to water or a variety of other environmental sources but may be associated with consumption of hard cheese.

Mycobacterium avium complex in the respiratory or gastrointestinal tract and the risk of M. avium complex bacteremia in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection.

Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is frequently isolated from the respiratory or gastrointestinal tract of patients with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Whether they are at increased risk of MAC bacteremia and whether culture of respiratory tract or stool specimens is useful for predicting bacteremia are unclear. HIV-infected patients with < or = 50 CD4+ cells/microL were prospectively studied. The risk of MAC bacteremia was approximately 60% within 1 year for patients with MAC in either the respiratory or gastrointestinal tract and was greater than for those without MAC in these sites (relative hazards for respiratory and gastrointestinal tract, 2.3 and 6.0; 95% confidence intervals, 1.1-4.6 and 2.5-14.6, respectively). Both respiratory tract specimen and stool culture had poor sensitivities (22% and 20%, respectively) but good positive predictive values (approximately 60%) for bacteremia. Symptomatic HIV-infected patients with MAC in the respiratory or gastrointestinal tract are at a substantial risk for developing MAC bacteremia; culture of these sites has limited usefulness as a screening test.