Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on Emergency Medical Service Utilisation, and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Volume-An Australian Perspective.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) admissions and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) volume declined during periods of COVID-19 lockdown internationally in 2020. The effect of lockdown on emergency medical service (EMS) utilisation, and PCI volume during the initial phase of the pandemic in Australia has not been well described. METHOD: We analysed data from the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry (VCOR), a state-wide PCI registry, linked with the Ambulance Victoria EMS registry. PCI volume, 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; composite of mortality, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, unplanned revascularisation, and stroke), and EMS utilisation were compared over four time periods: lockdown (26 Mar 2020-12 May 2020); pre-lockdown (26 Feb 2020-25 Mar 2020); post-lockdown (13 May 2020-10 Jul 2020); and the year prior (26 Mar 2019-12 May 2019). Interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess PCI trends within and between consecutive periods. RESULTS: The EMS utilisation for ACS during lockdown was higher compared with other periods: lockdown 39.4% vs pre-lockdown 29.7%; vs post-lockdown 33.6%; vs year prior 27.1%; all p<0.01. Median daily PCI cases were similar: 31 (IQR 10, 38) during lockdown; 39 (15, 49) pre-lockdown; 39.5 (11, 44) post-lockdown; and, 42 (10, 49) the year prior; all p>0.05. Median door-to-procedure time for ACS indication during lockdown was shorter at 3 hours (1.2, 20.6) vs pre-lockdown 3.9 (1.7, 21); vs post-lockdown 3.5 (1.5, 21.26); and, the year prior 3.5 (1.5, 23.7); all p<0.05. Lockdown period was associated with lower odds for 30-day MACCE compared to pre-lockdown (odds ratio [OR] 0.55 [0.33-0.93]; p=0.026); post-lockdown (OR 0.66; [0.40-1.06]; p=0.087); and the year prior (OR 0.55 [0.33-0.93]; p=0.026). CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to international trends, EMS utilisation for ACS increased during lockdown but PCI volumes remained similar throughout the initial stages of the pandemic in Victoria, with no observed adverse effect on 30-day MACCE during lockdown. These data suggest that the public health response in Victoria was not associated with poorer quality cardiovascular care in patients receiving PCI.

Artificial neural networks for ECG interpretation in acute coronary syndrome: A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a crucial diagnostic tool in the Emergency Department (ED) for assessing patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS). Despite its widespread use, the ECG has limitations, including low sensitivity of the STEMI criteria to detect Acute Coronary Occlusion (ACO) and poor inter-rater reliability. Emerging ECG features beyond the traditional STEMI criteria show promise in improving early ACO diagnosis, but complexity hinders widespread adoption. The potential integration of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) holds promise for enhancing diagnostic accuracy and addressing reliability issues in ECG interpretation for ACO symptoms. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, Cochrane, PubMed and Scopus were searched from inception through to 8th of December 2023. A thorough search of the grey literature and reference lists of relevant articles was also performed to identify additional studies. Articles were included if they reported the use of ANN for ECG interpretation of Acute Coronary Syndrome in the Emergency Department patients. RESULTS: The search yielded a total of 244 articles. After removing duplicates and excluding non-relevant articles, 14 remained for analysis. There was significant heterogeneity in the types of ANN models used and the outcomes assessed, making direct comparisons challenging. Nevertheless, ANN appeared to demonstrate higher accuracy than physician interpreters for the evaluated outcomes and this proved independent of both specialty and years of experience. CONCLUSIONS: The interpretation of ECGs in patients with suspected ACS using ANN appears to be accurate and potentially superior when compared to human interpreters and computerised algorithms. This appears consistent across various ANN models and outcome variables. Future investigations should emphasise ANN interpretation of ECGs in patients with ACO, where rapid and accurate diagnosis can significantly benefit patients through timely access to reperfusion therapies.

Percutaneous coronary intervention outcomes based on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association coronary lesion classification over 14 years - Melbourne interventional group (MIG) registry.

BACKGROUND: The American College of Cardiology / American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) introduced a coronary lesion classification in 1988 to stratify coronary lesions for probability of procedural success and complications after coronary angioplasty. Our aim is to assess the validity of the ACC/AHA lesion classification in predicting outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a contemporary cohort of patients. METHODS: Consecutive PCI procedures performed between 2005 and 2018, were divided into three periods. At each period, the ACC/AHA lesion classification (A, B1, B2, C) was analysed with respect to procedural characteristics, in-hospital and 30-day outcomes, as well as long-term mortality by linkage to the National Death Index (NDI). RESULTS: In total, 21,437 lesions were included with 7399 lesions (2005-2009), 6917 lesions (2010-2014) and 7121 lesions (2015-2018). There was a progressive increase in the number of complex lesions treated over time with ACC/AHA type C (15 %, 21 % and 26 %, p < 0.01). The rate of PCI procedural success decreased with increase in the complexity of lesions treated across all three periods (p < 0.01). Further, in-hospital and 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) increased across all three time periods (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study validates the ACC/AHA lesion classification as a meaningful tool for prediction of PCI outcomes. Despite advances in PCI techniques and technology, complex lesion PCI defined by this classification continues to be associated with adverse outcomes.

Prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing awareness that patients without standard modifiable risk factors (SMuRFs; diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and smoking) may represent a unique subset of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to investigate the prevalence and outcomes of patients with SMuRF-less ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) compared with those with SMuRFs. METHODS: We analysed data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI Registry. Patients with coronary artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital and 30-day events. Long-term mortality was investigated using Cox-proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: From 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2020, 2727/18 988 (14.4%) patients were SMuRF less, with the proportion increasing over time. Mean age was similar for patients with and without SMuRFs (63 years), and fewer females were SMuRF-less (19.8% vs 25.4%, p<0.001). SMuRF-less patients were more likely to present with cardiac arrest (6.6% vs 3.9%, p<0.001) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (59.1% vs 50.8%, p<0.001) and were more likely to experience postprocedural cardiogenic shock (4.5% vs 3.6%, p=0.019) and arrhythmia (11.2% vs 9.9%, p=0.029). At 30 days, mortality, myocardial infarction, revascularisation and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events did not differ between the groups. During median follow-up of 7 years, SMuRF-less patients had an adjusted 13% decreased rate of mortality (HR 0.87 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.97)). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of SMuRF-less patients increased over time. Presentation was more often a devastating cardiac event compared with those with SMuRFs. No difference in 30-day outcomes was observed and SMuRF-less patients had lower hazard for long-term mortality.

Post-Procedure Monocyte Count Levels Predict Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) for Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Aortic stenosis has recently been characterised as having an inflammatory aetiology, beyond the traditional degenerative model. Recruitment of monocytes has been associated with inflammation contributing to progression of calcific aortic-valve disease. Prior research has demonstrated that pre-procedure inflammatory biomarkers do not consistently discriminate poorer outcomes in those with aortic stenosis. It remains, however, unclear if postprocedure inflammatory biomarkers, which are influenced by intraprocedural pro-inflammatory insults, can predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) post transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). METHOD: All patients with postprocedure monocyte levels undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation at The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Australia (2008-2019) were included. The highest monocyte count from postprocedure days 1 to 3 was used. Patients were divided into "high" or "low" postprocedure monocyte count groups using the Youden Index. The incidence of 30-day MACE a composite of stroke, acute myocardial infarction, and death) was then compared. RESULTS: In total, 472 patients were included (54% men, median age 84 years). Fourteen (14) patients (3%) suffered a 30-day MACE. Those with high postprocedure monocyte count were more likely to: be hypertensive (p=0.049); have a higher Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score (p=0.032); and, undergo non-transfemoral access (p=0.018). A high (≥0.975) postprocedure monocyte count was significantly associated with 30-day MACE (odds ratio [OR] 1.16 for each 0.1 increase in monocyte, p=0.025). This association remained present on multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score, and self-expanding valve prosthesis type (OR 1.17, p=0.028). CONCLUSIONS: The association between postprocedure monocytosis and 30-day MACE suggests that minimising peri-procedural inflammatory insults may improve outcomes. This inexpensive and readily available biomarker may also aid in tailored risk stratification for patients.

Ten-Year Risk Equations for Incident Heart Failure in Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Populations.

BACKGROUND: Ten-year risk equations for incident heart failure (HF) are available for the general population, but not for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is highly prevalent in HF cohorts. This study aimed to develop and validate 10-year risk equations for incident HF in patients with known ASCVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten-year risk equations for incident HF were developed using the United Kingdom Biobank cohort (recruitment 2006-2010) including participants with established ASCVD but free from HF at baseline. Model performance was validated using the Australian Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute Biobank cohort (recruitment 2000-2011) and compared with the performance of general population risk models. Incident HF occurred in 13.7% of the development cohort (n=31 446, median 63 years, 35% women, follow-up 10.7±2.7 years) and in 21.3% of the validation cohort (n=1659, median age 65 years, 25% women, follow-up 9.4±3.7 years). Predictors of HF included in the sex-specific models were age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), cholesterol, smoking status, QRS duration, kidney disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation. ASCVD-HF equations had good discrimination and calibration in development and validation cohorts, with superior performance to general population risk equations. CONCLUSIONS: ASCVD-specific 10-year risk equations for HF outperform general population risk models in individuals with established ASCVD. The ASCVD-HF equations can be calculated from readily available clinical data and could facilitate screening and preventative treatment decisions in this high-risk group.

Incidence, Predictors, and Outcomes of Nonhome Discharge Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: A Multicenter Australian Experience-The NHD TAVI Study.

Patients who undergo transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) commonly experience nonhome discharge (NHD), a phenomenon associated with increased health care expenditure and possibly poorer outcomes. Despite its clinical relevance in TAVI, the incidence and predictors of NHD and its impact on the quality of life remain poorly characterized. Also unknown is the proportion of patients who undergo TAVI that require long-term residential care after initial NHD. Therefore, we aimed to address these questions using a large, multicenter Australian cohort. A total of 2,229 patients who underwent TAVI from 2010 to 2023 included in the Alfred-Cabrini-Epworth TAVI Registry were analyzed. The median age was 82 (interquartile range 78 to 86) years and 41% were women. A total of 257 patients (12%) were not discharged home after TAVI, with the incidence falling over time (R2 = 0.636, p <0.001). A multivariable logistic regression model for NHD prediction was developed with excellent calibration and discrimination (C-statistic = 0.835). The independent predictors of NHD were postprocedural stroke (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 11.05), procedure at a private hospital (aOR 3.01), living alone (aOR 2.35), vascular access site complications (aOR 2.09), frailty (aOR 1.89), age >80 years (aOR 1.82), hypoalbuminemia (aOR 1.76), New York Heart Association III to IV (aOR 1.74), and hospital length of stay (aOR 1.13) (all p <0.05). NHD was not associated with mortality at 30 days and <1% of all patients required longer-term residential care. In conclusion, although common after TAVI, NHD does not predict short-term mortality, most patients successfully return home within 30 days, and when used appropriately, NHD may serve as a brief and effective method of optimizing functional status without compromising long-term independence.

Preoperative Variables of 30-Day Mortality in Adults Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Risk adjustment following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is vital for clinical quality registries, performance monitoring, and clinical decision-making. There remains significant variation in the accuracy and nature of risk adjustment models utilised in international PCI registries/databases. Therefore, the current systematic review aims to summarise preoperative variables associated with 30-day mortality among patients undergoing PCI, and the other methodologies used in risk adjustments. METHOD: The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases until October 2022 without any language restriction were systematically searched to identify preoperative independent variables related to 30-day mortality following PCI. Information was systematically summarised in a descriptive manner following the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist. The quality and risk of bias of all included articles were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Two independent investigators took part in screening and quality assessment. RESULTS: The search yielded 2,941 studies, of which 42 articles were included in the final assessment. Logistic regression, Cox-proportional hazard model, and machine learning were utilised by 27 (64.3%), 14 (33.3%), and one (2.4%) article, respectively. A total of 74 independent preoperative variables were identified that were significantly associated with 30-day mortality following PCI. Variables that repeatedly used in various models were, but not limited to, age (n=36, 85.7%), renal disease (n=29, 69.0%), diabetes mellitus (n=17, 40.5%), cardiogenic shock (n=14, 33.3%), gender (n=14, 33.3%), ejection fraction (n=13, 30.9%), acute coronary syndrome (n=12, 28.6%), and heart failure (n=10, 23.8%). Nine (9; 21.4%) studies used missing values imputation, and 15 (35.7%) articles reported the model's performance (discrimination) with values ranging from 0.501 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.472-0.530) to 0.928 (95% CI 0.900-0.956), and four studies (9.5%) validated the model on external/out-of-sample data. CONCLUSIONS: Risk adjustment models need further improvement in their quality through the inclusion of a parsimonious set of clinically relevant variables, appropriately handling missing values and model validation, and utilising machine learning methods.

Prevalence and Predictors of Emergency Medical Service Use in Patients Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

AIM: We aim to describe prevalence of Emergency Medical Service (EMS) use, investigate factors predictive of EMS use, and determine if EMS use predicts treatment delay and mortality in our ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) cohort. METHOD: We prospectively collected data on 5,602 patients presenting with STEMI for primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) transported to PCI-capable hospitals in Victoria, Australia, from 2013-2018 who were entered into the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry (VCOR). We linked this dataset to the Ambulance Victoria and National Death Index (NDI) datasets. We excluded late presentation, thrombolysed, and in-hospital STEMI, as well as patients presenting with cardiogenic shock and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. RESULTS: In total, 74% of patients undergoing primary PCI for STEMI used EMS. Older age, female gender, higher socioeconomic status, and a history of prior ischaemic heart disease were independent predictors of using EMS. EMS use was associated with shorter adjusted door-to-balloon (53 vs 72 minutes, p<0.001) and symptom-to-balloon (183 vs 212 minutes, p<0.001) times. Mode of transport was not predictive of 30-day or 12-month mortality. CONCLUSIONS: EMS use in Victoria is relatively high compared with internationally reported data. EMS use reduces treatment delay. Predictors of EMS use in our cohort are consistent with those prevalent in prior literature. Understanding the patients who are less likely to use EMS might inform more targeted education campaigns in the future.

Clinical Outcomes of Renal Transplant Recipients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

BACKGROUND: Clinical outcomes of patients with renal transplant (RT) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remain poorly elucidated. METHOD: Between 2014 and 2021, data were analysed for the following three groups of patients undergoing PCI enrolled in a multicentre Australian registry: (1) RT recipients (n=226), (2) patients on dialysis (n=992), and (3) chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], 30‒60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) without previous RT (n=15,534). Primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs)-composite of mortality, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and stroke. RESULTS: RT recipients were younger than dialysis and patients with CKD (61±10 vs 68±12 vs 78±8.2 years, p<0.001). Patients with RT less frequently had severe left ventricular dysfunction compared with dialysis and CKD groups (6.7% vs 14% and 8.5%); however more, often presented with acute coronary syndrome (58% vs 52% and 48%), especially STEMI (all p<0.001). Patients with RT and CKD had lower rates of 30-day MACCE (4.4% and 6.8% vs 11.6%, p<0.001) than the dialysis group. Three-year survival was similar between RT and CKD groups, however was lower in the dialysis group (80% and 83% vs 60%, p<0.001). After adjustment, dialysis was an independent predictor of 30-day MACCE (odds ratio [OR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44‒2.50, p<0.001), however RT was not (OR 0.91, CI 0.42‒1.96, p=0.802). Both RT (hazard ratio [HR] 2.07, CI 1.46‒2.95, p<0.001) and dialysis (HR 1.35, CI 1.02‒1.80, p=0.036) heightened the hazard of long-term mortality. CONCLUSIONS: RT recipients have more favourable clinical outcomes following PCI compared with patients on dialysis. However, despite having similar short-term outcomes to patients with CKD, the hazard of long-term mortality is significantly greater for RT recipients.

Healthcare and economic cost burden of emergency medical services treated non-traumatic shock using a population-based cohort in Victoria, Australia.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the healthcare costs and impact on the economy at large arising from emergency medical services (EMS) treated non-traumatic shock. DESIGN: We conducted a population-based cohort study, where EMS-treated patients were individually linked to hospital-wide and state-wide administrative datasets. Direct healthcare costs (Australian dollars, AUD) were estimated for each element of care using a casemix funding method. The impact on productivity was assessed using a Markov state-transition model with a 3-year horizon. SETTING: Patients older than 18 years of age with shock not related to trauma who received care by EMS (1 January 2015-30 June 2019) in Victoria, Australia were included in the analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome assessed was the total healthcare expenditure. Secondary outcomes included healthcare expenditure stratified by shock aetiology, years of life lived (YLL), productivity-adjusted life-years (PALYs) and productivity losses. RESULTS: A total of 21 334 patients (mean age 65.9 (±19.1) years, and 9641 (45.2%) females were treated by EMS with non-traumatic shock with an average healthcare-related cost of $A11 031 per episode of care and total cost of $A280 million. Annual costs remained stable throughout the study period, but average costs per episode of care increased (Ptrend=0.05). Among patients who survived to hospital, the average cost per episode of care was stratified by aetiology with cardiogenic shock costing $A24 382, $A21 254 for septic shock, $A19 915 for hypovolaemic shock and $A28 057 for obstructive shock. Modelling demonstrated that over a 3-year horizon the cohort lost 24 355 YLLs and 5059 PALYs. Lost human capital due to premature mortality led to productivity-related losses of $A374 million. When extrapolated to the entire Australian population, productivity losses approached $A1.5 billion ($A326 million annually). CONCLUSION: The direct healthcare costs and indirect loss of productivity among patients with non-traumatic shock are high. Targeted public health measures that seek to reduce the incidence of shock and improve systems of care are needed to reduce the financial burden of this syndrome.

The Role of Comorbidities in Predicting Functional Improvement After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) have a high comorbidity burden. We sought to stratify patients into functional outcomes using the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12), a patient-reported outcome with benefits over both the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification and the original 23-item KCCQ, and to evaluate the importance of comorbidities in predicting failure of functional improvement post-TAVI in a contemporary cohort. METHODS: In total, 366 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI with baseline KCCQ-12 were retrospectively analysed and divided into two groups. Failure to improve was defined as a score <60 and a change in score <10 at 1 year in either overall score (KCCQ-OS) or clinical summary score (KCCQ-CSS). RESULTS: Failure to improve was noted in 13% of patients, who were more likely to have lower KCCQ-OS at baseline (47 [35-59] vs 56 [42-74]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (19% vs 8%), severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) (13% vs 2%), a clinical frailty score (CFS) ≥5 (41% vs 14%), and lower serum albumin (36 g/L [34-38] vs 38 g/L [35-40]). On multivariate analysis, with an area under the curve of 0.71 (0.63-0.78), baseline KCCQ-OS (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.3 [0.1-0.6], p=0.04), COPD (aOR 2.8 [1.2-6.5], p=0.02), and severe CKD (aOR 5.7 [1.7-18.5], p=0.004) remained independent predictors. CFS alone had a similar predictive value as the multivariable model (OR 2.0 [1.3-3.4], area under the curve 0.69 [0.59-0.80], p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: KCCQ scores were effective in delineating functional outcomes, with most patients in our relatively lower surgical risk cohort showing significant functional improvements post-TAVI. Low baseline KCCQ, moderate or worse COPD, and severe CKD were associated with failure of improvement post-TAVI. Baseline CFS appears to be a good screening tool to predict poor improvement. These factors should be evaluated and weighted accordingly in pre-TAVI assessments and decision-making.

Comparison of Characteristics and Outcomes in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Admitted Under General Medicine and Cardiology Units.

BACKGROUND: Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease hospitalisations associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In hospitals, HF patients are typically managed by cardiology or physician teams, with differences in patient demographics and clinical outcomes. This study utilises contemporary HF registry data to compare patient characteristics and outcomes in those with ADHF admitted into General Medicine and Cardiology units. METHODS: The Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry was utilised to identify patients hospitalised with ADHF 30-day period in each of four consecutive years. We compared patient characteristics, pharmacological management and outpatient follow-up of patients admitted to General Medicine and Cardiology units. Primary outcome measures included in-hospital mortality, 30-day readmission, and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2017, a total of 1,253 patients with ADHF admissions were registered, with 53% admitted in General Medicine units and 47% in Cardiology units. General Medicine patients were more likely to be older (82 vs 71 years; p<0.001), female (51% vs 34%; p<0.001), and have higher prevalence of comorbidities and preserved left ventricular function (p<0.001). There were no differences in primary outcome measures between General Medicine and Cardiology in terms of: in-hospital mortality (5.0% vs 3.9%; p=0.35), 30-day readmission (23.4% vs 23.6%; p=0.93), and 30-day mortality (10.0% vs 8.0%; p=0.21). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalised patients with HF continue to have high mortality and rehospitalisation rates. The choice of treatment by General Medicine or Cardiology units, based on the particular medical profile and individual needs of the patients, provides equivalent outcomes.

No-Reflow Prediction in Acute Coronary Syndrome During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The NORPACS Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal coronary reperfusion (no reflow) is common in acute coronary syndrome percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical risk score for angiographic no reflow for use following angiography and before PCI. METHODS: We developed and externally validated a logistic regression model for prediction of no reflow among adult patients undergoing PCI for acute coronary syndrome using data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI registry (2005-2020; development cohort) and the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society PCI registry (2006-2020; external validation cohort). RESULTS: A total of 30 561 patients (mean age, 64.1 years; 24% women) were included in the Melbourne Interventional Group development cohort and 440 256 patients (mean age, 64.9 years; 27% women) in the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society external validation cohort. The primary outcome (no reflow) occurred in 4.1% (1249 patients) and 9.4% (41 222 patients) of the development and validation cohorts, respectively. From 33 candidate predictor variables, 6 final variables were selected by an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model for inclusion (cardiogenic shock, ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction with symptom onset >195 minutes pre-PCI, estimated stent length ≥20 mm, vessel diameter <2.5 mm, pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow <3, and lesion location). Model discrimination was very good (development C statistic, 0.808; validation C statistic, 0.741) with excellent calibration. Patients with a score of ≥8 points had a 22% and 27% risk of no reflow in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The no-reflow prediction in acute coronary syndrome risk score is a simple count-based scoring system based on 6 parameters available before PCI to predict the risk of no reflow. This score could be useful in guiding preventative treatment and future trials.

Electrocardiographic patterns and clinical outcomes of acute coronary syndrome cardiogenic shock in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention - A propensity score analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the influence of presenting electrocardiographic (ECG) changes on prognosis in acute coronary syndrome cardiogenic shock (ACS-CS) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary angiography (PCI). BACKGROUND: The effect of initial ECG changes such as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) versus non-STEMI among patients ACS-CS on prognosis remains unclear. METHODS: We analysed data from consecutive patients with ACS-CS enrolled in the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes registry between 2014 and 2020. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis (IPTW) was used to assess the effect of ECG changes on 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 1564 patients with ACS-CS who underwent PCI, 161 had non-STEMI and 1403 had STEMI on ECG. The mean age was 66 ± 13 years, and 74 % (1152) were males. Patients with non-STEMI compared to STEMI were older (70 ± 12 vs 65 ± 13 years), had higher rates of diabetes (34 % vs 21 %), prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (14 % vs 3.3 %), peripheral arterial disease (10.6 % vs 4.1 %, p < 0.01), and lower baseline eGFR (53.8 [37.1, 75.4] vs 65.3 [46.3, 87.8] ml/min/1.73m2), all p ≤ 0.01. Non-STEMI patients were more likely to have a culprit left circumflex artery (29 % vs 20 %) and more often underwent multivessel percutaneous coronary intervention (30 % vs 20 %) but had lower rates of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (21 % vs 39 %), all p ≤ 0.01. Propensity score analysis with IPTW confirmed that non-STEMI ECG was associated with lower odds for 30-day all-cause mortality (OR 0.47 [0.32, 0.69], p < 0.001), and 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (OR 0.48 [0.33, 0.70]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing PCI, Non-STEMI as compared to STEMI on index ECG was associated with approximately half the relative risk of both 30-day mortality and 30-day MACCE and could be a useful variable to integrate in ACS-CS risk scores.

Mixed plaque on coronary CT angiography predicts atherosclerotic events in asymptomatic intermediate-risk individuals.

OBJECTIVE: Coronary CT angiography (CCTA) permits both qualitative and quantitative analysis of atherosclerotic plaque and may be a suitable risk modifier in assessing patients at intermediate risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We sought to determine the association of plaque components with long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in asymptomatic intermediate-risk patients, compared with conventional coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. METHODS: 100 intermediate-risk patients underwent double-blinded CCTA. Follow-up was conducted at 10 years and data were cross-referenced with the National Death Index. The primary outcome was MACE, which was a composite of death, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), revascularisation and stroke. RESULTS: The median time from CCTA to follow-up was 9.5 years. 83 patients completed follow-up interview and mortality data were available on all 100 patients. MACE occurred in 17 (20.5%) patients, which included 2 (2%) deaths, 8 (10%) ACS, 3 (4%) strokes and 5 (6%) revascularisation procedures. 47 (57%) patients had mixed plaque, which was predictive of MACE (OR 4.68 (95% CI 1.19 to 18.5) p=0.028). The burden of non-calcified and mixed plaque, defined by non-calcified plaque segment stenosis score, was also a predictor of long-term MACE (OR 1.59 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.13) p=0.002). Neither calcified plaque (OR 3.92 (95% CI 0.80 to 19.3)) nor CAC score (OR 1.01 (95% CI 0.999 to 1.02)) was associated with long-term MACE. CONCLUSION: The presence and burden of mixed plaque on CCTA is associated with an increased risk of long-term MACE among asymptomatic intermediate-risk patients and is a superior predictor to CAC score.

Structured Weaning From the Impella Left Ventricular Micro-Axial Pump in Acute Myocardial Infarction With Cardiogenic Shock and Protected Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Experience From a Non-Cardiac Surgical Centre.

BACKGROUND: The Impella (Abiomed, Danvers, MA, USA) temporary percutaneous left ventricular assist device is increasingly used as mechanical circulatory support in patients with acute myocardial infarction-cardiogenic shock (AMICS) or those undergoing high-risk protected percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The optimal weaning regimen remains to be defined. METHOD: We implemented a structured weaning protocol in a series of 10 consecutive patients receiving Impella support for protected PCI or AMICS treated with PCI in a high volume non-cardiac surgery centre. Weaning after revascularisation was titrated to native heart recovery using both haemodynamic and echocardiographic parameters. RESULTS: Ten patients (eight male, two female; aged 43-70 years) received Impella support for AMICS (80%) or protected PCI (20%). Cardiogenic shock was of Society for Cardiac Angiography & Interventions grade C-E of severity in 80%, and median left ventricular end-diastolic pressure was 31 mmHg. Protocol implementation allowed successful weaning in eight of 10 patients with a median support time of 29 hours (range, 4-48 hours). Explantation was associated with an increase in heart rate (81 vs 88 bpm; p=0.005), but no significant change in Cardiac Index (2.9 vs 2.9 L/min/m2), mean arterial pressure (79 vs 82 mmHg), vasopressor requirement (10% vs 10%), or serum lactate (1.0 vs 1.0). Median durations of intensive care and hospital stay were 3 and 6 days, respectively. At 30 days, the mortality rate was 20%, with median left ventricular ejection fraction of 40%. CONCLUSIONS: A structured and dynamic weaning protocol for patients with AMICS and protected PCI supported by the Impella device is feasible in a non-cardiac surgery centre. Larger studies are needed to assess generalisability of such a weaning protocol.