Disentangling the biotic and abiotic drivers of bird-building collisions in a tropical Asian city with ecological niche modeling.

Bird collisions with buildings are responsible for a large number of bird deaths in cities around the world, yet they remain poorly studied outside North America. We conducted one of the first citywide fine-scale and landscape-scale analyses of bird-building collisions in Asia and used maximum entropy modeling (as commonly applied to species distribution modeling) in a novel way to assess the drivers of bird-building collisions in the tropical city-state of Singapore. We combined 7 years of community science observations with publicly available building and remote sensing data. Drivers of bird-building collisions varied among taxa. Some migratory taxa had a higher relative collision risk that was linked to areas with high building densities and high levels of nocturnal blue light pollution. Nonmigratory taxa had a higher collision risk in areas near forest cover. Projecting our results onto official long-term land-use plans, we predicted that future increases in bird-building collision risk stemmed from increases in blue light pollution and encroachment of buildings into forested areas and identified 6 potential collision hotspots linked to future developments. Our results suggest that bird-building collision mitigation measures need to account for the different drivers of collision for resident and migratory species and show that combining community science and ecological modeling can be a powerful approach for analyzing bird-building collision data.

Modelos de nicho ecológico para esclarecer los causantes bióticos y abióticos de las colisiones entre aves y edificios en una ciudad tropical asiática Resumen Las colisiones entre aves y edificios son causa de un gran número de muertes en todas las ciudades del mundo, y aun así se estudian muy poco fuera de América del Norte. Realizamos uno de los primeros análisis a escala fina y a escala de paisaje en una ciudad asiática y usamos el modelo de entropía máxima (como se aplica con frecuencia a los modelos de distribución de especies) de manera novedosa para analizar los causantes de estas colisiones en Singapur, una ciudad­estado tropical. Combinamos siete años de observaciones de ciencia comunitaria con los datos públicos de teledetección y construcción. Los causantes de las colisiones entre aves y edificios variaron entre taxones. Algunos taxones migratorios tuvieron un riesgo de colisión relativamente más alto relacionado con áreas de alta densidad de edificios y niveles elevados de contaminación lumínica de luz azul nocturna. Los taxones no migratorios tuvieron un riesgo de colisión más elevado en las áreas cercanas a la cobertura forestal. Con la proyección de nuestros resultados sobre los planes oficiales de uso de suelo a largo plazo, pronosticamos que el incremento en el futuro de colisiones entre aves y edificios vendrá del incremento en la contaminación de luz azul y la invasión de edificios en las áreas forestales; también identificamos seis potenciales puntos calientes de colisión relacionados a futuros desarrollos inmobiliarios. Nuestros resultados sugieren que para mitigar estas colisiones se necesita considerar los diferentes causantes de dichas colisiones para las especies migratorias y residentes y también muestran que la combinación de la ciencia comunitaria y los modelos ecológicos puede ser una estrategia poderosa para analizar los datos de colisiones entre aves y edificios.

Economic value of illegal wildlife trade entering the USA.

Illegal wildlife trade is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Understanding its economic value is a first step to establishing the magnitude of the problem. We develop a dataset of illegal wildlife trade prices and combine it with seizure data to estimate the economic value of illegal wildlife trade entering the USA. Using 2013 as a reference year, the results reveal that the economic value of illegal wildlife trade entering the USA was, using a conservative scenario where potential outliers were excluded, US$3.2 billion/year (uncertainty range (UR) 5th and 95th percentile of US$0.6-8.2 billion/year) and, without excluding potential outliers, US$4.3 billion/year (UR of US$1.3-9.6 billion/year). Our results for the USA alone are of a comparable magnitude to the lower bound of commonly used global estimates of the economic value of IWT of uncertain origin, suggesting that the global economic value of IWT is currently underestimated and requires an urgent revision.

Drivers of deforestation and degradation for 28 tropical conservation landscapes.

Analysing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in conservation landscapes can provide crucial information for conservation management. While rates of forest loss can be measured through remote sensing, on the ground information is needed to confirm the commodities and actors behind deforestation. We administered a questionnaire to Wildlife Conservation Society's landscape managers to assess the deforestation drivers in 28 tropical conservation landscapes. Commercial and subsistence agriculture were the main drivers of deforestation, followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development. Rice, rubber, cassava and maize were the crops most frequently cited as drivers of deforestation in these emblematic conservation landscapes. Landscape managers expected deforestation trends to continue at similar or greater magnitude in the future, calling for urgent measures to mitigate these trends.

Combined impacts of deforestation and wildlife trade on tropical biodiversity are severely underestimated.

Tropical forest diversity is simultaneously threatened by habitat loss and exploitation for wildlife trade. Quantitative conservation assessments have previously considered these threats separately, yet their impacts frequently act together. We integrate forest extent maps in 2000 and 2015 with a method of quantifying exploitation pressure based upon a species' commercial value and forest accessibility. We do so for 308 forest-dependent bird species, of which 77 are commercially traded, in the Southeast Asian biodiversity hotspot of Sundaland. We find 89% (274) of species experienced average habitat losses of 16% and estimate exploitation led to mean population declines of 37%. Assessing the combined impacts of deforestation and exploitation indicates the average losses of exploited species are much higher (54%), nearly doubling the regionally endemic species (from 27 to 51) threatened with extinction that should be IUCN Red Listed. Combined assessment of major threats is vital to accurately quantify biodiversity loss.

Global economic trade-offs between wild nature and tropical agriculture.

Global demands for agricultural and forestry products provide economic incentives for deforestation across the tropics. Much of this deforestation occurs with a lack of information on the spatial distribution of benefits and costs of deforestation. To inform global sustainable land-use policies, we combine geographic information systems (GIS) with a meta-analysis of ecosystem services (ES) studies to perform a spatially explicit analysis of the trade-offs between agricultural benefits, carbon emissions, and losses of multiple ecosystem services because of tropical deforestation from 2000 to 2012. Even though the value of ecosystem services presents large inherent uncertainties, we find a pattern supporting the argument that the externalities of destroying tropical forests are greater than the current direct economic benefits derived from agriculture in all cases bar one: when yield and rent potentials of high-value crops could be realized in the future. Our analysis identifies the Atlantic Forest, areas around the Gulf of Guinea, and Thailand as areas where agricultural conversion appears economically efficient, indicating a major impediment to the long-term financial sustainability of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) schemes in those countries. By contrast, Latin America, insular Southeast Asia, and Madagascar present areas with low agricultural rents (ARs) and high values in carbon stocks and ES, suggesting that they are economically viable conservation targets. Our study helps identify optimal areas for conservation and agriculture together with their associated uncertainties, which could enhance the efficiency and sustainability of pantropical land-use policies and help direct future research efforts.

International trade causes large net economic losses in tropical countries via the destruction of ecosystem services.

Despite the large implications of the use of tropical land for exports ("land absorption") on ecosystem services (ES) and global biodiversity conservation, the magnitude of these externalities is not known. We quantify the net value of ES lost in tropical countries as a result of cropland, forestland and pastureland absorption for exports after deducting ES gains through imports ("land displacement"). We find that net ES gains occur only in 7 out of the 41 countries and regions considered. We estimate global annual net losses of over 1.7 x 10(12) international dollars (I$) (I$1.1 x 10(12) if carbon-related services are not considered). After deducting the benefits from agricultural, forest and livestock rents in land replacing tropical forests, the net annual losses are I$1.3 and I$0.7 x 10(12), respectively. The results highlight the large magnitude of tropical ES losses through international trade that are not compensated by the rents of land uses in absorbed land.

Why do we lose protected areas? Factors influencing protected area downgrading, downsizing and degazettement in the tropics and subtropics.

Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for the conservation of biodiversity globally. Previous studies have focussed on the effectiveness of PAs and the design of optimal PA networks. However, not all PAs remain intact permanently; many PAs undergo downgrading, downsizing and/or degazettement (PADDD), a fact largely ignored until recently. The drivers of enacted PADDD events and the factors influencing its spatial occurrence are poorly understood, potentially undermining the efficacy of PAs and PA networks. Here we examine the spatial relationship between PADDD and economic, demographic and structural variables, using a 110-year data set of 342 enacted PADDD events across 44 countries in the tropics and subtropics. We find that the probability of an enacted PADDD event increases with the size of the PA and through a synergistic interaction between PA size and local population densities. Our results are robust to the under-reporting of enacted PADDD events that occur among smaller PAs and in regions with lower population density. We find an economic motive for PADDD events, given that the opportunity costs associated with larger PAs are higher, on average, than smaller PAs. Our findings suggest a need for conservation practitioners to better consider PA characteristics, as well as the social, economic and political context in which PAs are situated, to aid the creation of more efficient and sustainable PA networks. In particular, the dynamics of enacted PADDD events highlight the need to explicitly consider PA robustness as a core component of systematic conservation planning for PA networks.

Not everything that counts can be counted: ants use multiple metrics for a single nest trait.

There are claims in the literature that certain insects can count. We question the generality of these claims and suggest that summation rather than counting (sensu stricto) is a more likely explanation. We show that Temnothorax albipennis ant colonies can discriminate between potential nest sites with different numbers of entrances. However, our experiments suggest that the ants use ambient light levels within the nest cavity to assess the abundance of nest entrances rather than counting per se. Intriguingly, Weber's Law cannot explain the ants' inaccuracy. The ants also use a second metric, independent of light, to assess and discriminate against wide entrances. Thus, these ants use at least two metrics to evaluate one nest trait: the configuration of the portals to their potential homes.